Atlantic Tropical Waves

crimsone · May 20, 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 16W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. ALTHOUGH
IT IS LOW-LATITUDE..THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WITH A BROAD
CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 18W-21.5W.
TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 41W S OF 7N MOVING W 15 KT. A V-TYPE
SIGNATURE IS EMBEDDED MOSTLY WITHIN THE ITCZ AND THERE IS ALSO
GOOD SUPPORT FROM MODEL FIELDS FOR THIS WAVE. LONG TERM LOOPS
SUGGEST THAT IT SLOWLY MOVED TO THIS LOCATION AND NOW IS MOVING
MORE QUICKLY UNDER THE BUILDING ATLC RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 3.5N36W 3N43W EQ41W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS AIDING IN TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND TO THE
W OF THE AXIS OVER WRN COLOMBIA THRU PANAMA S OF 11N. A SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE WAVE IS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL WINDS TO
THE N.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N30W 2N42W EQ50W. OUTSIDE OF
TROPICAL WAVES.. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 2N W OF 44W AND
FROM 2.5N-6N BETWEEN 10N-14W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 7N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD
ROTATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WAVE IS ALREADY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
AND BE HARD TO TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120
NM OF LINE FROM S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 1N36W TO THE ITCZ AXIS
NEAR 1N42W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 12N DRIFTING W. THIS WAVE HAS
BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AT THE BASE OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CARIBBEAN. SEE CARIBBEAN SECTION FOR ANY CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 5N22W 6N32W 4N39W EQ51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
19W-24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
150 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 10W-15W AND N OF THE AXIS FROM
40W-48W.

summer blizzard · May 21, 2006

000

AXNT20 KNHC 211024

TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

805 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL

AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN

SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE

AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION

IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...

AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 7N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS

LOW-LATITUDE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THERE IS SOME

CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE BUT IT IS RATHER

BROAD AND LESS DISCERNIBLE THAN YESTERDAY. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY

REMAIN ILL DEFINED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 7N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE

STILL HAS SOME SIGNATURE OF AN INVERTED V-PATTERN EMBEDDED

WITHIN THE ITCZ. MUCH OF THE WAVE IS NOW INLAND OVER S AMERICA.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE

AXIS FROM 5N-8N. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE

ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED IN THE CARIBBEAN FROM THIS

WAVE OVER THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS AS THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE IS

EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS S AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS

MAINLY IN THE EPAC BUT ITS NORTHERN EXTENSION LIES OVER CENTRAL

AMERICA. A WEAK BROAD 1009 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE

AXIS NEAR 9N. THE WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW AND

A SFC TROUGH IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO

STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED OVER

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MOVES FURTHER W ACROSS THE EPAC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 3N25W 2N40W 4N51W. SCATTERED

MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS

BETWEEN 20W-28W ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 27W.

SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN

32W-41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE W OF 46W WITHIN

180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE

ALONG 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A 1017 MB

HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED IN THE E GULF NEAR 27N86W.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SMALL UPPER

LOW OVER N MEXICO NEAR 25N98W EWD TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. STRONG

SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE

TROUGH DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE KEEPING SKIES FAIR TO

MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE N GULF. BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS

IS STREAMING NEWARD FROM S MEXICO TO S FLORIDA DRIVEN BY A JET

STREAM BRANCH ON THE W PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE

CARIBBEAN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF FOR

THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW

CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH FURTHER NORTH AND BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE

SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF LATER TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BECOME

MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF ON MON/TUES.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS

AREA. THE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE N GULF AND W ATLC N OF

28N. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED TO A TROUGH IN THE

DISCUSSION AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 32N58W SWARD TO THE BAHAMAS

NEAR 23N75W THEN CONTINUES SSWWARD INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TO NEAR

NICARAGUA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG

WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90

NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 23N. CLUSTERS OF STRONG

TSTMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH

AXIS S OF 22N. FARTHER E...A MID/UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED JUST N

OF HAITI NEAR 21N72W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SW TO HONDURAS AND

NE TO BEYOND 32N50W. A 60-80 KT SWLY JET STREAM IS RIDING OVER

THE THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND EXTENDS FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE

NORTHEASTWARD T0 S FLORIDA AND CONTINUES NEWARD BEYOND 32N58W.

WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 60-80 KT ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS JET MAINLY

W OF 65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE

CARIBBEAN S OF 19N AND CURRENTLY E OF 82W...PUSHING WWARD.

TRADEWINDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE E OF

80W...LIGHTER WINDS W OF THERE DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.

TRADES WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORM AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE

CNTRL ATLC SFC RIDGE EDGES A LITTLE CLOSER. MOISTURE RELATED TO

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WWD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN LATER TODAY

AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE W ATLC OVER THE

NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGE VOLCANIC ASH CLOUDS DETECTED YESTERDAY

OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN ERUPTION OF THE MONTSERRAT

VOLCANO SAT MORNING IS STILL EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT IS

BREAKING UP FROM 66W-72W FROM 12N-17N.

THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CNTRL ATLC WITH THE AXIS

EXTENDING THRU 30N44W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N48W AND INTO

THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 10N54W. THE UPPER LOW IS HELPING TO

TRANSPORT UPPER MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS NEWARD WITHIN 180

NM TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE ALONG 10N50W 20N44W 28N40W. AN UPPER

HIGH IS NEAR 16N32W WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERING THE

AREA S OF 17N AND E OF 37W. DIFFLUENCE S OF THE RIDGE IS

ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING SE OVER

EXTREME NW AFRICA. THIS TROUGH IS CARRYING MOISTURE FROM THE

UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDING OVER THE UPPER HIGH INTO

W AFRICA. AT THE SFC...A STRONG SPRAWLING 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED

NEAR 31N36W COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION SUPPLYING FAIR WEATHER

ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. TRADE WINDS ARE

RATHER STRONG ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$

CANGIALOSI

I notice that trade winds are set to increase, does this increase sheer or increase the chances of tropical development.

crimsone · May 21, 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 7N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS
NOT WELL-DEFINED IN AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SUGGEST A
BROAD AREA OF TURNING AND NO OBVIOUS WAVE AXIS. THE CONVECTION
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE WELL-MATCHED TO THE BEST TURNING IN THE
LOW/MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL
BE HAVE A FAIR NUMBER OF TSTMS WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE
THOUGH LIKELY REMAINING BROAD AS WELL. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
1N-4.5N BETWEEN 23W-28.5W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 7N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THERE
IS SOME HINT OF THE WAVE IN THE CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD OVER S
AMERICA WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW... OTHERWISE THE WAVE IS
BECOMING VERY HARD TO TRACK. ISOLATED TSTMS OVERLAND N OF 1N E
OF 56W.
TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 87W HAS LEFT THE AREA.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 1N40W 3.5N51W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 8N16W 8N19.5W AND FROM
3.5N-5.5N BETWEEN 9W-15W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF 5N20W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 44W.
ISOLATED MODERATE S OF 3N BETWEEN 30W-42W.

crimsone · May 22, 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES TO BE RATHER ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS
BEST DESCRIBED AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TURNING ALONG
THE ITCZ. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 2N-3N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN
60 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 3N-4N.
TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 53W/54W HAS MOVED INLAND S AMERICA
AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE ALONG ALONG 57W S OF 7N MOVING W 15-20
KT. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS ITS SIGNATURE IS
BEING OBSCURED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS OF S AMERICA. HOWEVER...
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ENHANCED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE
WAVE FROM 6N-7N.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N25W 2N33W 2N40W TO INLAND S
AMERICA AT 2N50W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-26W..AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
45W-48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 41-45W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 16.5W-19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-38W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 32W-35W.

summer blizzard · May 22, 2006

000

AXNT20 KNHC 220550

TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

205 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL

AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN

SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE

AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION

IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...

AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE

CONTINUES TO BE RATHER ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS

BEST DESCRIBED AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TURNING ALONG

THE ITCZ. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN

27W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA ALONG 59W S OF 7N

MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS

ITS SIGNATURE IS BEING OBSCURED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS OF S AMERICA.

HOWEVER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN

57W-62W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N30W 1N40W 2N50W. NUMEROUS

STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-8N

BETWEEN 10W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N

BETWEEN 22W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG

CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N85W.

ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE E OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS

DEVELOPED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 25N94W TO 19N94W. NO

SHOWERS OR CONVECTION IS NOTED YET. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N95W.

CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 90W. THE NW EXTENT OF AN ANTICYCLONIC

CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF

MEXICO E OF 90W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS

BEING ADVECTED OVER THE AREA. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO

PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 27N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND S

FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER BELIZE...THE

GULF OF HONDURAS...W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND E GUATEMALA

FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 87W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS

ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 79W-81W.

PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF

16N BETWEEN 60W-73W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TRADEWINDS

ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE

CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC

CIRCULATION IS CENTERED W OF HAITI NEAR 19N75W. ANTICYCLONIC

FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.

SW FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND

THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W. EXPECT...CUBA...THE W CARIBBEAN

AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO HAVE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR

THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N56W 23N80W.

OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF

THE TROUGH N OF 25N. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL

ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW

IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC

CIRCULATION CENTERED W OF HAITI. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS

CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N50W. CYCLONIC FLOW

IS N OF 11N BETWEEN 40W-55W. A RIDGE IS N OF 10N BETWEEN

30W-40W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN

10W-30W. ELY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN

10W-40W.

$$

FORMOSA

crimsone · May 22, 2006

QUOTE("Discussion @ 805 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

")

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW

CLOUD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED JUST N OF THE ITCZ WITH VERY

LITTLE CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N

BETWEEN 29W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA ALONG 61W S OF 7N

MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS

ITS SIGNATURE IS BEING OBSCURED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS OF S AMERICA.

HOWEVER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN

57W-62W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 6N32W 3N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED

MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W

AFRICA FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 10W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE

CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 40W-52W.

crimsone · May 23, 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED BUT WEAK SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ
AXIS.
TROPICAL IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND NOT GENERATING SHOWERS
OR CONVECTION IN THE AREA.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N25W 3N40W 3N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 15W-23W AND FROM 31W-46W. WIDELY SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION DOT THE REMAINING AREA S OF 6N
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC.

kold weather · May 23, 2006

Ah, just seen this thread, keep it up crimsone because its from these tropical waves that big things form.

Actually, I think rather then creating new threads for each wave feature, this can be the wave thread!!!

Only thing of note bar the weak TW reported is a moderate UUL over the Gulf of Mexico that is drifting NNE and is produciing some fairly beefy convective cells which looks like homing in on Florida. Tropical development for this storm looks low though and I certainly be suprised if anything actually formed from this.

crimsone · May 24, 2006

oops. I missed a 12 hour discussion. lol. That's what falling asleep does for you!

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE HAS

WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND NOT AS WELL DEFINED. ANY

ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 71W/72W AND NOT

GENERATING SHOWERS OR CONVECTION IN THE AREA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N11W 5N22W 4N33W 6N47W 5N53W.

CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN

150/180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED

STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM

33W-41W.

crimsone · May 24, 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 9N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
SHOWS CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PREDOMINATELY W OF THE AXIS FROM
EQ-2N BETWEEN 43W-52W.
TROPICAL IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 75W MOVING W 12 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 70W-75W.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N20W 3N40W 5N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
11W-14W...FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 16W-20W...AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
22W-28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN
32W-35W.

kold weather · May 24, 2006

Might as well do a quick update on the upper Low feature system that was present yesterday. Well the news is is that its now pretty much dead I reckon and the chances of anything developing down at the surface is pretty much gone. It's still throwing some convection across Florida but thats the furtherest extent to its present actvity.

As for the other wave, it is weak at the moment and there seems to be very little convection at all present on it so I don't think it'll come to anything either.

crimsone · May 24, 2006

As for the other wave, it is weak at the moment and there seems to be very little convection at all present on it so I don't think it'll come to anything either.

I just thought I'd post the 6-hourly to back up what you said about that tropical wave being weak. I think it's also worth a mention (even though it's the EPAC) that that first Atlantic wave - the one that nearly died but somehow made it to the other side of Mexico- is now expected to develop! :lol: It's somewhere near 100W at the moment. I guess it must have been helped along by sitting in all that convection after crossing Mexico for a couple of days? What do you think Kold?

Anyway, back to the Atlantic for a moment..

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT.
INVERTED V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE VIS SATELLITE
PICTURES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BUT MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ SOUTH OF 4N
BETWEEN 42W-50W.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 75W MOVING
SLOWLY WWD. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 75W-77W.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 3N30W 4N45W 7N48W 6.5N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100-120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 35W.

crimsone · May 24, 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 7N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK
SIGNATURE CURVATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
1N-5N BETWEEN 45W-49W.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND IN THE FAR
SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W/77W S OF 10N DRIFTING W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA
BETWEEN 74W-76W.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 5N20W 4N30W 1N40W 1N47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 5N FROM
9W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 14W-22W WITH
SCATTERED CLUSTERS S OF 7N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-40W.

crimsone · May 25, 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH PROBABLY IS NOT AT THE SURFACE...
APPEARS IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN
47W AND 50W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING
PRECIPITATION FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 10N. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N80W
12N82W. OTHER PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH OF PANAMA...JUST WEST OF
COLOMBIA...IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE
RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N10W 5N20W 4N30W 4N37W 2N44W 2N47W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N
BETWEEN 13W AND 16W...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W...AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN
300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

crimsone · May 26, 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 7N MOVING W 5-10 KT.
WEAK SIGNATURE CURVATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION TO JUST
OVER PANAMA ALONG 80W/81W S OF 8N DRIFTING W. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 7N17W 5N34W 3N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 16W-27W AND
FROM THE EQUATOR 7N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

wolves78 · May 26, 2006

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST 10 KT.

ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND

IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO THE

COASTLINE BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W SOUTH OF 9N FROM PANAMA INTO THE

EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA

NEAR 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W...ALSO COVERING PANAMA AND

NEARBY WATERS IN EITHER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OR IN

THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ ALSO IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THIS

AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N10W 5N20W 4N30W 4N40W 5N47W 5N51W. STRONG SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W.

ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 40W...AND FROM EQUATOR

TO 8N OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICA COASTLINE

BETWEEN 40W AND 58W.

kold weather · May 26, 2006

Thanks for keeping everyone updated Wolves and Crimsone Only a few days to the offical start of the hurricane season!!!

wolves78 · May 26, 2006

Thanks for keeping everyone updated Wolves and Crimsone Only a few days to the offical start of the hurricane season!!!

no probs KW

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST 10 KT.

IT IS MOVING THROUGH FRENCH GUIANA NOW. ISOLATED MODERATE

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CENTRAL SURINAME AND

ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 9N FROM PANAMA INTO

THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NOW FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W

INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA AND EASTERN PANAMA AND THE

PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS JUST OFF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. THE ITCZ

ALSO IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N10W 5N20W 4N30W 4N40W 5N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 12W

AND 16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2S TO 8N WEST OF 17W. SCATTERED

MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM

5N TO 8N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W.

crimsone · May 26, 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W COMPLETELY INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N11W 3N25W 4N40W 1N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 9N-12N. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA WITHIN 200-250 NM OF THE AXIS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC.

May 27, 2006

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATW...ml/261612.shtml

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1000 AM PDT FRI MAY 26 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO

IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE

BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SLIGHT

INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. EVEN IF A DEPRESSION DOES NOT

FORM...HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN

MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN

MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH

SATURDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI

$$

crimsone · May 27, 2006

lol. Wrong thread

crimsone · May 27, 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/594W SOUTH OF 6N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
IT IS MOVING THROUGH GUYANA NOW. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM 3N55W TO 6N60W
FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO GUYANA.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N10W 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W 2N50W 3N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 50W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N
BETWEEN 50W AND 53W.

crimsone · May 27, 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 6N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
IT IS MOVING THROUGH GUYANA NOW. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 1N54W TO 2N57W TO 3N59W STRETCHING FROM BRAZIL TO
SOUTHERN GUYANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER CENTRAL
GUYANA EARLIER. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS
MORE PROBABLE THAT ALL THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ
RATHER THAN TO THE 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N9W 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W 3N50W 3N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 7W AND 12W...AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN
32W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 55W.

crimsone · May 28, 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED EASTERN VENEZUELA ALONG 62W/63W
SOUTH OF 9N. NO RAWINSONDE DATA ARE AVAILABLE IN ORDER TO TRACK
ITS MOVEMENT WELL. NO WELL ORGANIZED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
MOST IF NOT ALL THE PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE
SINCE IT REACHED THE SOUTH AMERICA CONTINENT HAS BEEN RELATED
MORE TO THE ITCZ THAN ANYTHING ELSE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N13W 3N20W 2N30W 2N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN
13W AND 16W...FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W...AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 60W.

wolves78 · May 28, 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 2N HAS BEEN MOVING W 10 KT THE

PAST 48 HOURS. THERE IS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG

CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE AXIS WHILE ACTIVITY E OF THE

AXIS IS MOSTLY ISOLATED. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THE AXIS BASED ON CLOUD MOTION.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...9N77W 10N91W 14N100W 11N110W

8N120W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N

TO 10N E OF 89W. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF 8N94W. ISOLATED

MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N110W TO 10N113W TO

8N117W TO 8N121W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 6N140W.

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