Yearly CET

[summer blizzard]

Not sure which section to put this in as it relates to all seasons of the year so moderators, please feel free to move this thread.

http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleyce.../HadCET_act.txt

According to the Hadley figures and assuming that that the May CET is 12.3C, the first five months of this year will have been 0.2C below average, here is an overveiw of the monthly CET figures so far this year.

January - 4.3C - 0.1C above average

February - 3.8C - 0.4C below average

March - 5C - 1.3C below average

April - 8.5C - 0.4C above average

May - (12.3C) 1C above average

Q1 2006 was 0.5C below average.

Assuming that my summer teleconnection forecast comes off in regards to the CET, the following CET figures may be observed...

June - 12.6C - 1.5C below average

July - 17C - 0.5C above average

August - 14.7C - 1.5C below average

This would mean that Q2 2006 would be average and would aso mean that by the end of August, 2006 would be 0.3C below average.

If i factor in my super long range forecast (not released for obvious reasons) then the following CET figures are produced...

September - 13.7C - average

This would mean that Q3 2006 would be 0.3C below average.

October - 10.9C - 0.5C above average

November - 5.4C - 1.5C below average

December - 5.1C - average

This would mean that Q4 2006 would be 0.3C below average.

This would mean that 2006 would be 0.4C below average which would produce a CET of around 9.4C.

[Optimus Prime]

9.6c for me.

[Anti-Mild]

Think I'll go for 9.95c.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'll go for 10.08C, making it the coolest year since 2001.

[Snowly does it]

9.7, below 10 but not so much as to cause too much headscratching. Sub 9 for 2007 after a blisteringly cold winter/spring (all based on corns and seaweed like all the best forecasts yay!)

[Guest Mike W]

Sub 9 for 2007, that would cause more than headscratching, more like a headache for AGW doommongers, I can't see a sub 10 let alone a sub 9 happening, the lowest I could see happening would be a 9.9 type year but only once every 4 or 5years, then we might not even get that. Like some people I don't want the doomongers to be right, but nature hasn't proved them wrong yet.

[West is Best]

Sub 9 for 2007 after a blisteringly cold winter/spring (all based on corns and seaweed like all the best forecasts yay!)

Not a chance with Global warming ... but you're perfectly entitled to your opinion!

I'll go for 10.02C for 2006.

[reef]

A bit too early to be discussing this in my opinion, last year proved this when it looked like being the warmest year on record in mid-November and then a cold second half of November and cool December prevented it by a longshot. Likewise this year, although it has been relatively cool compared to recent years so far, every month after this could be upwards of a degree above average. You just never know!

Still, it would be a nice change to record a year below 10.xx.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

well taking into consideration that

January was 4.3

February was 3.8

March was 5

April was 8.5

May was (around) 12.4

i predict that the following months will be as follows

June will be 15.3

July will be 17.6

August will be 17.4

These may change in conjunction with my seasonal outlook

September will be 10.5

October will be 8.5

November will be 5.4

December will be 3.6

So an average C.E.T of 9.35 celcuis= below average

My warm summer and cold winter's are coming into my thoughts of an easterly trend developing and we all know what a warm easterly can do in the summer and a cold one in the winter. i suspect winter 2007 will be the one that we will all remember as 'The Come Back Of The Easterly'

Chow For Now

SNOW-MAN2006

Not a chance with Global warming ... but you're perfectly entitled to your opinion!

I'll go for 10.02C for 2006.

That is still cool for a world that is meant to be dealing with global warming only a few points of a degree above average

SNOW_MAN2006

[West is Best]

i suspect winter 2007 will be the one that we will all remember as 'The Come Back Of The Easterly'

That old chestnut! As sure as the seasons turn, so is the predicted vengeance of the easterly. Winter by winter, summer by summer, spring by spring, and autumn by autumn the savage Siberian set-up is confidently predicted. And it's as rare as the tiger that shares the name.

[Weather-history]

Assuming May 2006 is 12.3 then ironically the next 7 months need to average 12.3 at most for this year to be sub 10C

The last 7 months of the year averaging over 12.3C has happened 25 times, 10 of those in the last 25 years

[West is Best]

Assuming May 2006 is 12.3 then ironically the next 7 months need to average 12.3 at most for this year to be sub 10C

According to Philip 12.45C though Mr D? He admits to having been a trifle high with the Manley estimate though, but perhaps 12.4C looks likely?

The last time we had a sub-10C year (2001) we were at a total of an aggregate of 33.1C by now, compared to 33.8C this year - or in averages 6.62C in 2001 compared to 6.76C this year. So we'd need to be cooler than 2001 for the remaining 7 months to get below 10C. I suspect this month (June) is going to be important - 2001 and 2002 both saw Junes in the low 14's

[Weather-history]

According to Philip 12.45C though Mr D? He admits to having been a trifle high with the Manley estimate though, but perhaps 12.4C looks likely?

Its not going to make much difference whether its 12.3, 12.4 or even 12.45 . Even 12.45, it would need the rest of year to be 12.29 at most to give an annual CET of 9.99C , rounded up 12.3 :blush:

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remember 2001 also had a notably warm autumn, and the summer was a warm one over England & Wales, though near-average in Scotland and N Ireland.

That said, 2001 did contain a very cold December, there haven't been many months in recent years to be over 1C below the 1971-2000 and 1961-90 averages, but Dec '01 managed it.

[Guest Mike W]

What average are we using for the Annual CET, is it the 61-90, 71-00, 76-05 or the decadal 96-05. Reason I ask is becasue someone said that if it checked out at 10.02 that would be only slightly above. TBH I don't see how 10.02 could be slightly above on any of them, it would be only below if your using 96-05 and it would be above on all the others.

[summer blizzard]

Snow-Man: 2006: 9.35C

Summer Blizzard: 9.4C

Optimus Prime: 9.6C

Snowmaiden: 9.7C

Anti-Mild: 9.95C

West Is Best: 10.02C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.08C

As the 2001 annual CET was 9.93C, which is 0.07C below the 10C mark and 2006 is currently 0.14C above the 2001 figure, we are currently on course for a annual CET of 10.07C, therefore, 2006 must average 0.08C cooler than we are currently on course for, or in other words, if all months were average, we would need one month that was 0.56C below average (preferably November or December), in order for 2006 to be cooler than 2001, assuming that all months were average average, we would need one month with a CET that is 1.05C below average.

[Snowly does it]

Not a chance with Global warming ... but you're perfectly entitled to your opinion!

I'll go for 10.02C for 2006.

I agree (oddly enough as a dedicated warm hater) that it is highly highly unlikely, more a hope cast than a serious forcast (2006 is my serious stab), but I think even under GW which, whether man-made or a natural turn of events or a combination, is a fact, allows for wild variations in differing locations. A cool summer and a very very cold winter would indeed push things in a given year towards the magic 9 marker, both are eminently possible, if as stated unlikely.

Unless the summer is a warm one this year my feeling is sub 10, if a warm summer a shade over, but I favour the sub for this year. We'll see I guess, but as a wise old man in my local store said yesterday 'Global warming?? Tell that to my toes last night'

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

10.11C

We need at least 1 below average summer month for any chance of a below double digit figure.

May was pretty unspectacular, cool and hot moments and a lot of rain which was the big feature, yet still managed just under a degree above the average. I've heard people say May was a "cool" month.

[Snowly does it]

Hi - long time, no speak

I'm very much a polar girl like you although I hate wet cool atlantic driven summers (as much as I hate atlantic weather any time of year!) so a month or two of nice warm summer weather from the continent is welcome by me.

Any CET prediction is pure guesswork so, for purposes of this thread, I may as well use my warm easterly summer and freezing easterly/northerly winter preference as a basis for a yearly CET prediction! I will therefore go for 9.9 based on the unprecedented delights of the winter to come

Global warming? It exists of course, but it is both over-hyped and mis-hyped IMO

Tamara

Hi! Yeah I spend summers wasting all my money on imported snowmen, they lack firmness and just melt after a snuggle, lol

I have no objection to warm Js and the following A, as long as the mugginess we suffer from interminably here stays away.

I know what you are saying too AFT, many people I know are saying May was 'cool' - I think its just the feeling it gave - it was unusually windy in part from a cooler direction which took the edge off and also the nights were generally warm until the last few days which made the CET suggest a warmer 'feeling' month than what we actually got. For the uninterested in weather it was a pretty rotten month I'd say, but it had some quirks that those of us liking the whole meterological thang enjoyed.

Yearly CET under 10 a lock I say, its gonna happen and no plume will stop it mwehehehehehe. Cold is the new black

[summer blizzard]

Snow-Man: 2006: 9.35C

Summer Blizzard: 9.4C

Optimus Prime: 9.6C

Snowmaiden: 9.7C

Anti-Mild: 9.95C

West Is Best: 10.02C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.08C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 10.11C

[Sunshine]

I would say a CET of 10.00

[Rollo]

I cannot vizualize a really cold December so with the current yearly CET not far from normal I would tend to go for 10.5c. As for the winter of 2007,we know a cold one is overdue but only a brave man (or woman) would commit at this stage.

[Dawlish]

As I put the chances of any one year being 70% that it will be above the average for the CET and this year, after June, will be above, I'd go for about 10.4C Nothing exceptional, Last year's unusually slightly below average winter means it is unlikely to be a record year, but I think it will be comfortably above average, again.

Paul

[Mr Sleet]

Slightly lower than 2005. I'll go for 10.25

Assuming the data is corrected properly

[summer blizzard]

Snow-Man: 2006: 9.35C

Summer Blizzard: 9.4C

Optimus Prime: 9.6C

Snowmaiden: 9.7C

Anti-Mild: 9.95C

Sunshine: 10.00C

West Is Best: 10.02C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.08C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 10.11C

Mr Sleet: 10.25C

Dawlish: 10.40C

Rollo: 10.50C