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Yearly CET


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Guest Mike W

It looks like the majority are going for a record breaking 5th year in a row for 10.**, the previous being 1997 - 2000, which was 4 in a row, which we have equalled already. I have to say I wouldn't be surprised if we were to continue with 10.**, especially with greatly reduced levels of sulphur dioxide and soot that we now have aswell.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Hmm, its a hard one to call this. While the a blocked summer should also mean a warmer then average summer a blocked set-up by November could well lead to a below average last 2-3 months. So providing we keep a tendancy for blocked weather (Which I believe is what a solar min tends to induce) then providing the summer isn't amazingly warm compared to average (like 1976) then anything from 10.5-9.7C is still possible dependin on the Autumn and winter.

I'll go for 9.99C, just because I want a year below 10C.

One thing I'll also say, next time we get a strong El Nino, we'll see a 11C CET for a year.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Just for a giggle: 10.03C. :(

Edited by Pete Tattum
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Snow-Man: 2006: 9.35C

Optimus Prime: 9.6C

Snowmaiden: 9.7C

Anti-Mild: 9.95C

Kold Weather: 9.99C

Sunshine: 10.00C

West Is Best: 10.02C

Pete Tattum: 10.03C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.08C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 10.11C

Mr Sleet: 10.25C

Summer Blizzard: 10.25C

Dawlish: 10.40C

Rollo: 10.50C

The average yearly CET is 9.75C.

As Q1 of 2006 was 0.6C below average according to the Hadley centre, and would put 2006 on course for a yearly CET of 9.25C, which would make 2006 the coldest since 1996, assuming that the June CET is 16.1C, Q2 of 2006 would be 1.2C above average meaning that the first half of 2006 would be 0.3C above average putting 2006 on course for a yearly CET of 10.05C, assuming that my July, August and September CET estimates of 19C, 15.7C and 13.7C came off, then Q3 of 2006 would be 0.7C above average making the first nine months of 2006 0.4C above average and putting 2006 on course for a yearly CET of 10.15C, and assuming that my CET estimates of 12.9C, 5.6C and 4.4C came off which would result in Q4 being 0.2C above average and the yearly CET being 0.5C above average resulting in a yearly CET of 10.25C, which is what i have changed my CET estimate to.

Edited by summer blizzard
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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The Hadley centre have the june CET figure at 15.9C, which is 1.8C above average, this means that Q2 2006 is 1.1C above average and that the first half of 2006 is 0.25C above average, putting 2006 on course for a CET of 10C.

Assuming that my Q3 2006 CET estimates of 19.5C, 15.7C and 16.2C came off, then Q3 2006 would be 1.7C above average, this would mean that the first nine months of 2006 would be 0.7C above average putting 2006 on course for a CET of 10.45C.

Assuming that my Q4 2006 CET estimates of 12.4C, 5.6C and 3.7C came off, then Q4 2006 would be 0.2C below average, this would mean that 2006 was 0.5C above average with a CET of 10.25C.

In summary, based on the June CET figure of 15.9C and my forecasted CET figures, my 2006 CET estimate remains unchanged at 10.25C, which is 0.5C above average.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

My preliminary forecast for October now indicates a CET of 10.9C, which is 0.5C above average as opposed to a CET of 12.4C, which is 2C above average, this means that Q4 2006 is now 0.7C below average and means that my latest predicted CET figure is 9.9C, which is 0.125C above average. My official October forecast will be released during the last week of July, until then, my predicted figure of 9.9C stands.

Snow-Man: 2006: 9.35C

Optimus Prime: 9.6C

Snowmaiden: 9.7C

Summer Blizzard: 9.9C

Anti-Mild: 9.95C

Kold Weather: 9.99C

Sunshine: 10.00C

West Is Best: 10.02C

Pete Tattum: 10.03C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.08C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 10.11C

Mr Sleet: 10.25C

Dawlish: 10.40C

Rollo: 10.50C

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

I think that when all of the ups and downs are smoothed out, this year will be just average. This is not to preclude some exceptional hot periods late summer, and some exceptionally cold periods as the year draws to a close. So, I'm going for 9.75C. Talk about out on a limb :p

Edited by Wilson
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Snow-Man: 2006: 9.35C

Optimus Prime: 9.6C

Snowmaiden: 9.7C

Wilson: 9.75C

Summer Blizzard: 9.9C

Anti-Mild: 9.95C

Kold Weather: 9.99C

Sunshine: 10.00C

West Is Best: 10.02C

Pete Tattum: 10.03C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.08C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 10.11C

Mr Sleet: 10.25C

Dawlish: 10.40C

Rollo: 10.50C

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I have now updated my forecast, so i feel it is time to revise my yearly CET estimate...

As Q1 2006 was 0.5C below average and Q2 2006 was 1.1C above average, that sets us up for a yearly CET of 10.35C, which is 0.6C above average.

July looks to have a CET value around 19.5C, so taking that and my predicted CET values of 15.2C for August and September, Q3 2006 is 1.2C above average which means that 2006 would still be on course for a yearly CET of 10.35C.

My official forecast calls for an October CET of 10.4C, which is average, while my November and December anologues still support 5.6C and 3.7C which means that Q4 2006 will be 0.9C below average.

This means that the 2006 yearly CET will be 9.95C, which is 0.2C above average.

Snow-Man: 2006: 9.35C

Optimus Prime: 9.6C

Snowmaiden: 9.7C

Wilson: 9.75C

Summer Blizzard: 9.95C

Anti-Mild: 9.95C

Kold Weather: 9.99C

Sunshine: 10.00C

West Is Best: 10.02C

Pete Tattum: 10.03C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.08C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 10.11C

Mr Sleet: 10.25C

Dawlish: 10.40C

Rollo: 10.50C

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

If we end up with a very hot July (hottest ever) combined with a very warm June and warm May and then probably a hot August we would need a dramatic cooldown to put us below a yearly CET below 10.0c.

The only month that saved 1995 from being the hottest on record was the very cold December. Decembers recently have shown a slight cooling, so perhaps a very cold December could pull us below the 10.0c mark.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I think I'll leave my 'update' until December 31??? :D

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Im suprised at the number of 9.xx estimates on this thread, especially considering the number of 10+ years since 1988. Personally I think we're in for another 10.50+ year, it would take a below average Autumn now to achieve such a low yearly CET, something we havent managed since 1993.

So Im going to estimate top of the pack, with a value of 10.55°C.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Snow-Man: 2006: 9.35C

Optimus Prime: 9.6C

Snowmaiden: 9.7C

Wilson: 9.75C

Summer Blizzard: 9.95C

Anti-Mild: 9.95C

Kold Weather: 9.99C

Sunshine: 10.00C

West Is Best: 10.02C

Pete Tattum: 10.03C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.08C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 10.11C

Bham Chris: 10.14C

Mr Sleet: 10.25C

Dawlish: 10.40C

Rollo: 10.50C

Reef: 10.55C

Reef, i think that it is highly doubtfull that the yearly CET will be that high, bering in mind that the first quater of 2006 was 0.6C below average.

Edited by summer blizzard
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If we end up with a very hot July (hottest ever) combined with a very warm June and warm May and then probably a hot August we would need a dramatic cooldown to put us below a yearly CET below 10.0c.

The only month that saved 1995 from being the hottest on record was the very cold December. Decembers recently have shown a slight cooling, so perhaps a very cold December could pull us below the 10.0c mark.

Slight cooling for December's.In my experience in the last few years they have been mild and dull.I don't think we will see a cold December this year either,I can see another dry and mild one,though I can see quite a cold November possibly like last year's November,and I think we could be also in for a much more chilly October this year,a 2003 like October possibly.But I can't see past a very warm September or August meaning the yearly CET won't be below 10.0C.So I'm predicting that overall I predict the yearly CET will be 10.14C

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

The average temperature for December is 5.1c. Last year came out at 4.4c which is 0.7c below average.

2005; 4.4 (-0.7)

2004; 5.3c (+0.2)

2003; 4.8c (-0.3)

2002; 5.7c (+0.6)

2001; 3.5c (-1.6)

2000; 5.8c (+0.7)

1999; 5.0c (-0.1)

1998; 5.5c (-0.3)

1997; 5.8c (+0.7)

1996; 2.9c (-2.2)

1995; 2.3c (-2. :D

1994; 6.4c (+1.3)

1993; 5.5c (+0.3)

1992; 3.6c (-1.5)

1991; 4.5c (-0.6)

1990; 4.1c (-1.0)

Out of the last 16 years, 10 have been below average, 6 at least 1c below. We haven't had 1 December more then 1.3c above average.

Anomaly for the last 16 Decemebrs is -0.45c. Or an average of 4.7c....clearly shows Decembers have cooled down in the last 16 years.

Octobers have also shown little or no warming in recent years, but two of the warmest Octobers have ocured in the last 6 years.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Location: Reading

I've already gone for an only slightly warmer than average August so I guess I should continue not to be too optimistic, although I still think we'll be above average. Let's say 10.16.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
Reef, i think that it is highly doubtfull that the yearly CET will be that high, bering in mind that the first quater of 2006 was 0.6C below average.

Im not so sure. Assuming this July finishes at 19.5°C, the year as a whole so far will already be 0.65°C above average. Then there's Autumn, which hasnt been below average for 13 years. Cant say Im confident of a cold December either.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

According to Phillip Eden, the July CET will end up at 19.9C (rounded up), if my August and September CET predictions of 15.2C were to come off, then Q3 2006 would be 1.3C above average and 2006 would be on corse for a yearly CET of 10.4C, which is 0.65C above average.

My October CET prediction based on teleconnections is 10.4C, which coupled with my November and December CET predictions of 5.6C and 3.7C means that Q4 2006 may be 0.9C below average.

If my CET predictions were to occur, then the 2006 yearly CET would be 10C, which is 0.25C above average.

Snow-Man: 2006: 9.35C

Optimus Prime: 9.6C

Snowmaiden: 9.7C

Wilson: 9.75C

Anti-Mild: 9.95C

Kold Weather: 9.99C

Sunshine: 10.00C

Summer Blizzard: 10.00C

West Is Best: 10.02C

Pete Tattum: 10.03C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.08C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 10.11C

Bham Chris: 10.14C

Stargazer: 10.16C

Mr Sleet: 10.25C

Dawlish: 10.40C

Rollo: 10.50C

Reef: 10.55C

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
Summer Blizzard: 9.4C
Summer Blizzard: 10.25C
Summer Blizzard: 9.9C
Summer Blizzard: 9.95C
Summer Blizzard: 10.00C

I dont mean to nit-pick, but whats the point in having a prediction if it changes 5 times and by as much as nearly a degree in 40 days? Although compared to the likes of the MetOffice for example we are amateurs here, imagine if they changed their summer or winter forecast by as times during the season!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The Met Office did actually change their forecast during July, in the same way, i change my predictions based on the lastest data available, my final prediction will be realeased at the end of September which is when my December teleconnections CET forecast will be available.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Well so far this year we are now 0.7c above average due to a very hot July. Every month now really needs to be below average if we are going to even hit the average target. If we want one below we would need a few 2c below average months....we haven't had a month 2c below normal since December 1996 :)

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The July CET has been confirmed as 19.7C by the Met Office.

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Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL

I've just done some calculations for Jan-Jul, and Jan-Aug (using Mr Edans figure of 16.8oC so far).

Ok, the august data is skewed, because the month hasnt ended, and is also not the same as used in the METO data. However, these are the results for the last 10 years (on average):

Jan-Jul:

1997 - 9.84oC

1998 - 10.13oC

1999 - 10.30oC

2000 - 9.90oC

2001 - 9.23oC

2002 - 10.23oC

2003 - 10.19oC

2004 - 9.94oC

2005 - 10.03oC

2006 - 9.91oC

Average for last 10 years = 9.97oC

Then, the figures for Jan-Aug:

1997 - 10.97oC

1998 - 10.85oC

1999 - 11.02oC

2000 - 10.74oC

2001 - 10.17oC

2002 - 11.07oC

2003 - 11.20oC

2004 - 10.91oC

2005 - 10.80oC

2006 - 10.77oC

Average for last 10 years = 10.85oC

I suppose, it can be seen that 2001 was a colder 7 or 8 months, in regards to the start of the year (and also in the final CET).

For me, what is interesting is that, although we had the hottest month on record in July, both sets of figures show that it only made the running yearly CET more towards the normal.

If, and it is only experimental, the Jul CET had come out on average, we would have had a Jan-Jul CET of 9.46oC, making it akin more to 2001. However, it wasnt, but goes to show how much of an impact (~0.5oC) July had on our CET.

Interesting times ahead, but thought perhaps, it might be of interest to see the comparisons over the last 10 years.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

My teleconnection based forecast has now been updated and poins to the following CET figures for the rest of 2006, 15.2C, 10.4C, 3.9C and 3.7C, if this is the case, then Q3 2006 would be 1.2C above average however Q4 2006 would be 1.4C below average, this means that my lastest prediction of the 2006 yearly CET is once again 9.95C, which is 0.2C above average.

Snow-Man: 2006: 9.35C

Optimus Prime: 9.6C

Snowmaiden: 9.7C

Wilson: 9.75C

Anti-Mild: 9.95C

Summer Blizzard: 9.95C

Kold Weather: 9.99C

Sunshine: 10.00C

West Is Best: 10.02C

Pete Tattum: 10.03C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.08C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 10.11C

Bham Chris: 10.14C

Stargazer: 10.16C

Mr Sleet: 10.25C

Dawlish: 10.40C

Rollo: 10.50C

Reef: 10.55C

Interestingly, i have looked at the CET records to see if i can decern any trends, and this is what i found....

January - Cooling since 2005

February - Cooling since 2004

March - Cooling since 2005

April - Cooling since 2004

May - Warming since 2005

June - Warming since 2004

July - Warming since 2004

August - Cooling since 2003

September - Warming since 2003

October - Warming since 2003

November - Cooling since 2002

December - Cooling since 2004

As you can see, the period November-March has shown a cooling trend in recent years, most likely due to the solar minimum, while the period May-October has shown a warming trend in recent years aside from August, it would be interesting to look at other solar minimums to disern whether or not they have the same CET pattern.

Using the solar minimum of 1996 as a benchmark, here is what i found...

January - Cooling

February - Cooling

March - Cooling

April - Cooling

May - Cooling

June - Warming

July - Cooling

August - Cooling

September - Cooling

October - Cooling

November - Cooling

December - Warming

More reasearch is needed but it appears that there may be a corelation between solar minimums and the period January to April showing a cooling trend in preceeding years.

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