Yearly CET

[summer blizzard]

Mike, that is true however the fact is that 2006 to date has been overall cooler than 2005.

Edited August 24, 2006 by summer blizzard

[Stratos Ferric]

No disrespect but 'cooling since 2005' is really no proof of any cooling surely.

Well, it's proof of cooling since 2005! However, I know what you mean, it's absolutely no indicator of any long term trend.

[Weather-history]

May, June and July 2006 were the warmest such period on record just pipping the May-July 1976 period by 0.1C

[reef]

Mike, that is true however the fact is that 2006 to date has been overall cooler than 2005.

January - July averages Using Manley CET:

2005: 10.09°C

2006: 10.04°C

Id hardly call 0.05°C cooler, its within the margin of error in fact.

For reference, the 1971-2000 average by this point in the year is 9.26°C, so we're actually 0.78°C above at the moment. That means if the year continued to be as above average during the last 5 months, we'd finish up at 10.54°C - 0.06°C warmer than 2005.

I still think we're on for another 10.50+°C year, there is absolutely no proof of any cooling trend.

Edited August 24, 2006 by reef

[kold weather]

just for intrest I wonder how much different the CET would have been if June and July were only average compared to what they were, I'd bet we'd probably be running at below average.

The other thing you've got to remember about 2005 is the first two months of Autumn were super warm compared to average, esp October and it was those two months that relaly made the CEt so above average in that case.

[reef]

just for intrest I wonder how much different the CET would have been if June and July were only average compared to what they were, I'd bet we'd probably be running at below average.

The other thing you've got to remember about 2005 is the first two months of Autumn were super warm compared to average, esp October and it was those two months that relaly made the CEt so above average in that case.

If June and July were average, we'd currently be running at 9.25°C (-0.01°C).

Problem with blaming certain months on making above average years is that regardless of what running 12-month period that is chosen it would be a great struggle to find any period that comes out below average these days. Our current climate is simply warmer now, so theres always going to be 'certain months' that bring the values up.

[summer blizzard]

Problem with blaming certain months on making above average years is that regardless of what running 12-month period that is chosen it would be a great struggle to find any period that comes out below average these days. Our current climate is simply warmer now, so theres always going to be 'certain months' that bring the values up.

I agree, i think that we can pretty much rule out months such as June and September as months bringing below average CET, if September is below average this year, then this improves the chance of a below average, or at least below 10C year.

I think it was Strattos Ferric that posted in the winter thread that assuming August had a CET of 16.2C, we will have around 25C over four months to play with in order to achieve a below average yearly CET, in recent years, September and October have used that balance up alone, i will find the post and copy it across.

[summer blizzard]

The August CET has been confirmed as 16.1C by the Met Office, which is 0.1C below average, assuming that my September CET prediction of 15.2C occurs, Q3 2006 would of been 1.5C above average. My preliminary teleconnections forecast for December points to a December CET of 3.1C, which is 2C below average and assuming my October and November CET predictions of 10.4C and 3.9C respectively, occur the Q4 2006 would have been 1.7C below average making the scond half of 2006 0.2C below average which when set against the first half of 2006 would result in a yearly CET of 10.05C.

My final yearly CET prediction will be released around mid-October.

http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleyce.../HadCET_act.txt

Snow-Man: 2006: 9.35C

Optimus Prime: 9.6C

Snowmaiden: 9.7C

Wilson: 9.75C

Anti-Mild: 9.95C

Kold Weather: 9.99C

Sunshine: 10.00C

West Is Best: 10.02C

Pete Tattum: 10.03C

Summer Blizzard: 10.05C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.08C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 10.11C

Bham Chris: 10.14C

Stargazer: 10.16C

Mr Sleet: 10.25C

Dawlish: 10.40C

Rollo: 10.50C

Reef: 10.55C

Edited September 7, 2006 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

Once again, it looks as though September has been an above average month, infact we must go back to 1996 for a below average September.

Luckily, the months afterward have been highly variable in recent years although October and November do have a bias towards mild although interestingly, six out of the past ten Decembers have observed below average CET values.

[North-Easterly Blast]

It is getting the most repetitive pattern of the post 1997 climate to have this warm September weather. It just seems impossible to get a cool or even average September nowadays. The GFS charts in deep FI are beginning to show again the October pattern of recent years which looks all too familar - that low pressure may begin to develop slap bang across the UK and give prolonged unsettled wet weather again, with indications that high pressure may again begin to build over Greenland again. We can just never seem to get a dry, blocked October.

It would have been great to see an October like 1968, 1969, 1995 or even 1985 with warm anticyclonic weather bringing dry, warm days with some late season warmth, would be a great change from the unsettled wet weather we have had to endure too often in many Octobers of the past ten years.

[Weather-history]

Once again, it looks as though September has been an above average month, infact we must go back to 1996 for a below average September.

.

September 2001 is the last below average September, SB

[summer blizzard]

Yes Mr Data, though only by 0.3C, for a September with a CET more than 0.5C below average, we must go back to 1994.

For those people that believe that we have below average October's recently, only four out of the last ten have been below average, the last time being in 2003.

[Thundery wintry showers]

We had a blocked dry October in 2003, though it was very cold with northerlies after the 20th, and even snow in places. Most recent warm Octobers have been wet with frequent cyclonic southerly and south-westerly winds, as in 2001 and 2005- I think it's correct to say that 1995 was the last warm anticyclonic October, with the 8th in particular being quite a day (max of 23C in Newcastle!)

Of recent Octobers, that of 1997 sticks out for me, with contrasting episodes throughout the month, some notable extremes of temperature, sunshine generally above average, and at least something for just about everyone.

As for Septembers, until 1997 there was no sign of a warming trend, with a run of near average to cool Septembers between 1992 and 1996. 1997 was then quite warm but partially offset by low minima. Since then, the only near average to cool September was 2001, with those of 1998, 1999, 2002, 2004 and 2005 being outstandingly warm.

Of the recent Septembers, that of 2003 sticks out for me, again with contrasting episodes, sunshine generally above average, and high maxima partially offset by low minima.

In general I think we are looking at a mid 10C year here- November, in particular, has a high probability of being mild.

[summer blizzard]

September 2002 had a CET of only 14.4C, which is 0.7C avove average, hardly outstandingly warm.

October 2003 could not really be decribed as blocked, as it observed over 100mm of rainfall.

http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleyce.../HadEWP_act.txt

November has shown a cooling trend since 2002 although only last November observed a below average CET value.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Thundery wintry showers;

Why in particular has November this year got a high chance of being very mild? I do not see how you base this.

And besides, October 2003 was rather dry, with 67mm of rain.

Septembers 2002 and 2003 were still above average, although not outstandingly so.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's more a gut feeling than anything else- we had a relatively cold November in 2005, but as you posted elsewhere, recent Novembers have tended to either have mild SWs, or a mild Azores High bringing anticyclonic NWs. If anything I think the trend towards mildness has been particularly marked in November, despite what happened last year.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Thundery wintry showers;

The 11 years from 1986-1996 actually saw a run of average to cool Septembers, with only two Septembers in that period being above average by any means. Not only 1992-1996, extending the period back to 1986 continues the run apart from two.

Yes, regarding November, I will be very concerned if this coming October is wet, and November this year has mild SW'lies, or a mild Azores High, as it will mean that the patterns for the whole of autumn 2006 will have repeated what has been so common in each of the autumn months of the last ten years, and it will suggest that the winter weather patterns of recent years will re-assert themselves and lead to another mider than average season with only relatively short spells of cold weather.

We had a run of mild Novembers from 1997 to 2004; in that period only Nov 1998 actually fell below average, so the mild November trend since the mid 90s has almost been just as evident as the warm September trend.

[North-Easterly Blast]

With this thread for yearly CETs, and the relentless run of 10*C+ years, I would add that I have noticed that when January or February or both are colder than average, the weather patterns are often repetitive during the spring months, and after a cold Jan or Feb one or more of the spring months are below the seasonal average too. This was illustrated that after the cold Feb in 1996 both March and May were below average, and also after Jan 1987 both March and May were cold, and again the severe Feb 1986 led to the first five months of that year being cold, and again in 1985 apart from April; even Feb 1983 was cold and led to April and May being so too. 1979 was a perfect example; the whole spring was cold after the severe winter, in 1969 the spring was cold after the severe Feb, and again in 1955.

I have come to the conclusion that if you have a mild winter and especially if Jan / Feb are mild, the chances are very low that you will get any below average spring months, as in recent decades certainly cold spring months have almost always followed cold winter months. Whenever we can get a cold or at least colder winter, it will put us well on the way to getting a sub 10*C year. I would say that it is almost impossible to get a "true" cold year (below 9*C) without getting one or more severe winter month less than 2*C, as almost all cold years below 9*C have severe cold winter months.

[Big Bear]

In other words, pattern matching. That, along with hindcasting cold winters with associated cold springs.

[Weather-history]

I have come to the conclusion that if you have a mild winter and especially if Jan / Feb are mild, the chances are very low that you will get any below average spring months, as

Thats not entirely true as these examples show

Winter 1988-89 CET 6.5 April 6.6

Winter 1997-98 CET 6.1 April 7.7

Winter 1974-75 CET 6.4 March 4.8, May 9.9

Winter 1934-35 CET 6.1 May 9.9

Winter 1868-69 CET 6.8 March 3.8, May 9.6

[North-Easterly Blast]

I know there are rare exceptions Mr Data, but the point I am making is that at least 90-95% of colder than average spring months follow cold winter months. It is rare for a cold winter not to lead to one or more colder than average months in the spring that follows. The truth in it is that the weather patterns in especially January and February are often repetitive throughout the spring months and that as long as milder than average winters continue we are very unlikely to see colder than average spring months and the main key to getting a colder overall yearly CET is to get colder weather during Jan and Feb which will very likely lead to some cold spring months as well, and put us well on the way for a sub 10*C yearly CET.

I cannot see a pattern to below average summer months; these are random in that sometimes they follow cold winter / spring months but sometimes they do not. I also cannot see any link in below average autumn months leading to cold winter months, but the link between cold winter months leading to cold spring months almost always follows.

[summer blizzard]

The theory certainly held true this year...

February: 3.7C

March: 4.9C

[West is Best]

With September now guaranteed to come in as well above average, we're starting to stare at the sort of yearly CET levels that would have been unthinkable at the start of spring. It goes to show how affecting a few months can be, which is why it's still too early to plump for the final figure. We could easily now go from a below 10C year to the warmest year on record ... and anything in between! A truly cool year is, however, pretty much out now.

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

So far my average temp here in the North East[for the year] is currently standing on 9.66c [ including 21 days of this month september] if i just take up to the end of August my average temp would read 8.78c

Comparing my stats to last year as of the end of August this year the North east is slightly cooler than last year . by 0.18c last years stats were 8.96c

Im going to go for an average of 10.25c for the north east [ which i think is quite possilbe]

Nigel

Edited September 22, 2006 by stormchaser1

[su rui ke]

Making a fairly conservative estimate of 16.0C for the September CET, we would (I think) need to collect another 25.5 degree-months in October-December to reach the all-time record. I haven't had time to do the calculations yet, but I don't think too many years have managed that, if any.

Of course, if September is slightly warmer than 16.0C it would make achieving the record slightly easier.