Climate Catastrophe Cancelled

[Guest Mike W]

Sorry I was meant to say I don't think these weather events will happen again, i.e winters like 78/79 or 81/82 or cool summers like 77/78 or 87. Sorry about that, I think the hot weather we are having now is a sign of things to come and indeed something we have been accustomed to in recent years already. I hope I'm wrong BTW, but nothing CET wise has helped me change my view and as Dawlish was saying we are getting the synoptics that would delivered at least a month or two below 3 or even 1 at below 2 CET like Feb 91 last winter, but no chance. it's the price we pay for reducing our aersoles to virtually zero I guess.

Edited June 9, 2006 by Mike W

[Dawlish]

Sorry I was meant to say I don't think these weather events will happen again, i.e winters like 78/79 or 81/82 or cool summers like 77/78 or 87. Sorry about that

I thought you did! Though I don't entirely agree with you, Mike. This is a chaotic system, influencing a tiny part of the world and it will not follow the Global Warming trend in a truck and trailer way. In such a situation, statistics would expect that anomalies to that trend would surface quite regularly. I would expect a colder than average winter, every 5 years, based upon the UKs past reaction to the GW trend, through the 1990s and the "noughties"; though I may be being conservative, as only one of the past 10 winters has been cooler than average - the last one. I'll revise my decadal forecasts in 2010.

Paul

Edited June 9, 2006 by Dawlish

[Guest Mike W]

Thing is where is the albedo necessary to get a winter like 1978/79 or a summer like 1987, we just don't have as much of an albedo, to be fair 78/79 and other cold events were artificially induced anyway, although not deliberately so. The only way we could get cooling now, is by way of a rise in VEI4's and upwards through increase in volcanic activity that seems to occur at times of major solar mimums like the Maunder, Dalton and Spoorer type's, if or when this happens I don't know. Can't see where it would come from TBH.

Edited June 9, 2006 by Mike W

[Snowly does it]

Thing is where is the albedo necessary to get a winter like 1978/79 or a summer like 1987, we just don't have as much of an albedo, to be fair 78/79 and other cold events were artificially induced anyway, although not deliberately so. The only way we could get cooling now, is by way of a rise in VEI4's and upwards through increase in volcanic activity that seems to occur at times of major solar mimums like the Maunder, Dalton and Spoorer type's, if or when this happens I don't know. Can't see where it would come from TBH.

The Indonesian Volcano is due to go Krakatoa anyday soon, that would (if it went bananas a la 1883) have some small impact on temperatures in the immediate future (I think!)

I do agree that 'classic' 60s and 70s winter's are much harder to come by with a general warming trend, but the 60s and 70s were cooler times than the decades that preceeded them.

In terms of the 04/05 and 05/06 winter's, I don't entirely agree, although the CETs were 'warmer' than they might have been, this is due more to the intermittent weather patterns, I.E a rise in between cold snaps. The cold snaps themselves to my mind delivered precisely what one would expect - snowfall, harsh frosts and the odd ice day, but the overall perception of a harsh winter was tempered by the warmer than average 'warm winter' weather. Classic cold synoptics still produce classic cold weather. So yes, the winter CETs were not jaw dropping, but it was bloody cold out there, as cold as I remember in some of the classic winters, its just we never had blocking in position long enough to hold off the artificical GW standard temps for long enough to make us jump up and down - which is probably a lot to do with the cyclogenisis issue I read about above.

I think its fair to say that snowfall in the last 3 winter's has been above (the recent GW) average in late winter/early spring but below average in early and mid-winter

[Dawlish]

The Indonesian Volcano is due to go Krakatoa anyday soon, that would (if it went bananas a la 1883) have some small impact on temperatures in the immediate future (I think!)

I do agree that 'classic' 60s and 70s winter's are much harder to come by with a general warming trend, but the 60s and 70s were cooler times than the decades that preceeded them.

In terms of the 04/05 and 05/06 winter's, I don't entirely agree, although the CETs were 'warmer' than they might have been, this is due more to the intermittent weather patterns, I.E a rise in between cold snaps. The cold snaps themselves to my mind delivered precisely what one would expect - snowfall, harsh frosts and the odd ice day, but the overall perception of a harsh winter was tempered by the warmer than average 'warm winter' weather. Classic cold synoptics still produce classic cold weather. So yes, the winter CETs were not jaw dropping, but it was bloody cold out there, as cold as I remember in some of the classic winters, its just we never had blocking in position long enough to hold off the artificical GW standard temps for long enough to make us jump up and down - which is probably a lot to do with the cyclogenisis issue I read about above.

I think its fair to say that snowfall in the last 3 winter's has been above (the recent GW) average in late winter/early spring but below average in early and mid-winter

Not in 04/05. The cold snap (one) didn't happen until early Feb and the mild end to Feb more than balanced it. Dec and Jan saw the snowbies in hibernation, especially in Jan '05 which saw some exceptionally mild weather!

"The Indonesian Volcano is due to go Krakatoa anyday soon". I'll give you 100/1 that volcano erupts with even a tenth of the ferocity of Krakatoa this year, 1000/1 that it erupts with the ferocity of Krakatoa! Nice imagery, but that's just scaremongering snowprincess!

Paul

[drgl]

Not in 04/05. The cold snap (one) didn't happen until early Feb and the mild end to Feb more than balanced it. Dec and Jan saw the snowbies in hibernation, especially in Jan '05 which saw some exceptionally mild weather!

"The Indonesian Volcano is due to go Krakatoa anyday soon". I'll give you 100/1 that volcano erupts with even a tenth of the ferocity of Krakatoa this year, 1000/1 that it erupts with the ferocity of Krakatoa! Nice imagery, but that's just scaremongering snowprincess!

Paul

Do you know somethibg we don't?! You seem to be very certain of the future climate when the world scientists with all their data fail to agree and now you predict Volcano eruptions!!

[The PIT]

If you're referring to Merapi it isn't going to do a krakotoa. It's doubtful it will do a St Helens. So don't expect any climate change from the Volcano

[Dawlish]

Do you know somethibg we don't?! You seem to be very certain of the future climate when the world scientists with all their data fail to agree and now you predict Volcano eruptions!!

No, what I'm doing is not predicting volcanic eruptions by offering odds that say the likelihood is extremely small. If you read my post again, you'll see that. Predicting volcanic eruptions is still impossible, with any accuracy.

I'm certain that we are in a warming trend, as it is scientific fact and the vast majority of evidence points to it continuing; therefore, it is likely to be warmer in the future than it is at present. I work in odds and probabilities, not certainties, as regards weather or climate in the future, at any timescale.

Fairy snuff?

Paul

Edited June 10, 2006 by Dawlish

[John Cox]

Hi John,

The Easterlies of last winter produced a slightly cooler than average winter.

Don't you think, John, that such situations, as we saw this winter, should have produced colder conditions than they actually did?

Paul

Hi Paul,

We missed bitterly cold winds from the east by a whisker this winter.

Another 100 miles further west and we would have had exceptionally cold weather. Ask anyone in France or Germany

Thats how close a shave it was.

Next year hopefully it will be a Bulls Eye.

[Dawlish]

Hi Paul,

We missed bitterly cold winds from the east by a whisker this winter.

Another 100 miles further west and we would have had exceptionally cold weather. Ask anyone in France or Germany

Thats how close a shave it was.

Next year hopefully it will be a Bulls Eye.

That's the main trouble John. You are hoping for a cold winter and looking for any scraps of evidence to turn your hope into something you can believe will bring on the reality. It's just not convincing, sorry. Trying to pull the mild winter of 04/05 into a cooling trend is really grasping at straws. We're not in continental France, or Germany. You could extrapolate this further by saying that we've missed an extreme winter by only 1000 miles, every year since the last ice age. In world terms, 1000 miles isn't a big distance, so we just keep missing it by that world-sized whisker nearly every year!

Keep hoping, while the world warms. It will probably happen one time! Statistics and a non-linear trend will see to it.

Paul

PS I know it's a daft one (do them myself, often) but 100 miles further west would have meant that we were wet!

*>))

Edited June 10, 2006 by Dawlish

[John Cox]

Hi Paul ,

Our winter of 04/05 brought our 1st white Christmas for donkey's years.

Yes, it may have been a mild winter overall but that easterly spell in Feb/March left us with fabulous synoptics and a couple of snow falls, which have been in rare supply in recent years.

From a cold trending point my glass is half fulll rather than half empty.

[Dawlish]

Hi Paul ,

Our winter of 04/05 brought our 1st white Christmas for donkey's years.

Yes, it may have been a mild winter overall but that easterly spell in Feb/March left us with fabulous synoptics and a couple of snow falls, which have been in rare supply in recent years.

From a cold trending point my glass is half fulll rather than half empty.

Heh, heh. You are the only person in the pub drinking from a rose coloured glass John! Enjoy the drink.

Paul

[John Cox]

Heh, heh. You are the only person in the pub drinking from a rose coloured glass John! Enjoy the drink.

Paul

Hi Paul,

Thanks, I won.

Only joking, England did.

[Snowly does it]

Not in 04/05. The cold snap (one) didn't happen until early Feb and the mild end to Feb more than balanced it. Dec and Jan saw the snowbies in hibernation, especially in Jan '05 which saw some exceptionally mild weather!

"The Indonesian Volcano is due to go Krakatoa anyday soon". I'll give you 100/1 that volcano erupts with even a tenth of the ferocity of Krakatoa this year, 1000/1 that it erupts with the ferocity of Krakatoa! Nice imagery, but that's just scaremongering snowprincess!

Paul

As I said, snow has been rare and temps unimpressive in Midwinter (Dec and Jan) in general, and the cold snaps we have had have been offset in average temperatures by the warmer spells, 05 saw snowfall in March too, quite a bit of it for some, but its moot as essentially we said the same thing in roundabout ways. Fact remains that classic cold synoptics bring classic cold conditions, its a question of how many not if they are possible and the rise in CET over winter months is to my mind more due to higher tempeatures away from classical cold snaps, but its all moot until we see how it pans out over the next few winters. Far too early to call a cooling trend and until the winters return to a warming trend too early to write off a cooling winter trend. 05/06 is either a statistical blip or very significant and no-one yet has any definitive proof either way. We require the glories of hindsight for that. Odds favour warming given everything that has happened but I always back the underdog.

As for the volcano, it was very naughty of you to cut off the quote before my caveat containing the important IF it goes up like 1883. That remains a possibility as it is a very vociferous volcano situated on the ring of fire. These volcanos can and do go crazy occasionally and whilst the odds of a Krakatoa event are not huge (but a LOT lower than 1000/1 I would suggest given it has been threatening to blow for nearly a month) another Krakatoa WILL happen at some point. Its not scaremongering to point out the facts - large Volcanic eruptions pump SO2 into the atmosphere which lowers the temperatue, its also not really scaremongering to point out a possible event happening as I type, a degree or two off the global temperature would hardly be a disaster for mankind under the warming trend would it now?

Oh and sweetie, I am Snowmaiden not Snowprincess, even though she is as entitled to maximum snow powered respect as I am, lol

[Thundery wintry showers]

Hi John,

The Easterlies of 04/05 produced a significantly warmer winter than average where every single month had above average temperatures (this also included November '04 and April '05 too!). The Easterlies of last winter produced a slightly cooler than average winter.

I think that still leaves you with a 1 year trend. The winter of 04/05 was hardly a part of a warming trend!

What these two winters show is that, even with Easterly laced (not dominated) synoptics, that should produce cold weather, the present-day winter climate of the UK is too warm, for even Easterly situations to produce really cold weather. I think this: had exactly the same conditions happened in, say, the 1960s, or 1970s, we would have had winters with significant cold. This last winter, especially, is testament to how much our winter climate has changed.

Don't you think, John, that such situations, as we saw this winter, should have produced colder conditions than they actually did?

Paul

With global temperatures being higher than they were in the 1960s/70s, it is highly likely that the synoptics for 2005/06 would have produced a colder winter back then.

However, that wasn't the primary reason why the easterlies generally did not produce. The problem was that the jet maintained a strong northern arm and pressure was consistently low around Iceland, keeping the fabled Scandinavian High too far east to bring us the coldest weather. Instead, we had cool cloudy SE winds for the most part, while the near-Continent had severe cold. The exception was in late December when we ended up at the "end of the line" on an easterly that did just manage to make it to our shores, while late February and March saw the warm SST anomalies around Iceland disappear, and we had some potent easterlies in March.