Tropical storm Alberto

[Thundersquall]

Please discuss here once he forms.

The hurricane season started on 1st June 2006, so it might not be long.

[kold weather]

Here we go, no need for introduction:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...st&STYLE=tables

Td-1 is present, looks like the latest strong convective burst over to the east sent it over the edge towards TD status. The system also now has a weak LLC which is what is required for it to become a tropical depression though it appears to have many centers and is alot like TS Arlene last year, anyway this is the first of this season's hurricane season.

Now awaiting the first word from the NHC so its 100% and I suspect recon will go in later as planned.

[P.K.]

It is on the NRL page so it is most likely correct. Also the SSD Dvorak page now lists it as 01L.

[kold weather]

Yep 100% offical now, the season has began...let the fun and games truely begin:

823

WTNT31 KNHC 101246

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006

800 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2006 SEASON FORMS IN THE

NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF

PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR

THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT

50 MILES... 80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE

WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19

KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE

NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE

DEPRESSION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF

OF MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN

AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO

INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ON

THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY

RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...

WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS

COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL

TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH

3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE

POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA

PANHANDLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...21.1 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1000 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Anyway system looks much much healthier over the last few hours with that large flare-up of convection, LLC should just be on the western extent of that convection mass. There is a chance if convection keeps firing up that recon may even find TS Alberto. Who knows but we've got our first tropical depression nearly at the same time as Arlene last year, what are the chances!

Anyway I'm off out now but all I'll say is system is looking healthy fr now and shear is not providing any real problems to the tropical depressions convective coverage. As it happens its forming like Arlene, lop-sided with lots of convection of the eastern side of the system as the convection doesn't seem nearly as impressive on the other side. Anywhere within that eastern side could well see 5-8 inches, certainly models are expecting this amount. Still some uncertainty as to the center of this system as is per normal with TD's like this though there does appear to be several LLC's circulating around.

I'm still going with yesterdays forecast as well for now, how strong may it get, I'll stick with 60mph but anything from 30mph-80mph is possible but I think it'll probably peak at 60mph.

[Mondy]

Forecast to be a heavy rain event for some counties - nothing really of note:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[MAF]

Forecast to be a heavy rain event for some counties - nothing really of note:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

yep good call monds. still its the first one of the season so plenty more to come yet.

[Stuart]

000

WTNT21 KNHC 110231

TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006

0300Z SUN JUN 11 2006

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS

OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 86.2W AT 11/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 86.2W AT 11/0300Z

AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 86.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.6N 86.6W

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.0N 85.0W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.5N 83.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.5N 77.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 39.5N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 48.5N 57.0W...EXTRATROPICAL

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 86.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/110231.shtml

[kold weather]

Still looks very disorganised presently and stil llooks quite badly sheared as you can see on IR al lthe convective tops being blown by the jet north-eastwards. Another problem is the very dry air in the western gulf of Mexico which the system is fighting to keep out. This combined the WSW shear what is causing the system to become so lop-sided with al lthe convection on the eastern side, as I said before its just like Arlene in that regards. still recon did find tropical storm force winds in the mass of convection away from the estimated center but t was as recon said well removed from the center.

In terms of health, its still a very dis-organised system with no single dominant LLC, in fact there are several MLC (mid-level centers) and also according to last nights satelites also still a few LLC's. Unti lthe system can organise the dominant LLC then there wil lbe no further strengthening.

Also until it can organise a proper dominant center then it's gonig to be very hard even at this fairly late stage to tell where the system will make landfall. Pretty much the equation is the further east the centetr forms the further east the system wil lmake landfall, however there is at least a strong MLC/LLC presently way out near Yucatan so anywhere between there and the mass of convection near to western Cuba. As you can see thats a wide range of places for landfall. It's running out of time now to get much stronger, probably only has about 24hrs to become TS Alberto, though if it can sort its center out it may still have a chance despite the shear and dry air.

[kold weather]

Just a quick update- Further satelite loops have showed that the system does seem to be developing a strong LLC north of Yucatan, though its still under shear and there is a lot of dry air presently on its western side which will certainly limit it but it does appear to have a dominant centger at last a fair way wes tof the NHC predictions so expect a change in NHC track and strength possibly.

[kold weather]

TD-1 has now been offically upgraded.

It seems that the LLC has become much better established but to the west of the main mass of convection and its quite naked. Despite this there is some decent convection on itsd eastern side and this convection is giving some impressive cold cloud tops. Despite the earlier lack of convection its now starting to attempt to wrap the convection around itslef though it has got poor atmopshere to work with some dry air surrounding it on its western and southern side.

Seems like there are two main reasons why Td-1 has been upgraded. Firstly satelite estimates have increased today in the emergance of a clear and dominant LLC and also a RECON recording of 51kt winds which translated to ground level is *roughly* about 40kts, which is what the system has been upgraded to.

so presently we've got a 45mph tropical system that isn't that impressive and in fact it-s lop-sidedness is a carbon copy of the early stages of Arlene last year but Alberto is in a even more unfavorable position.

Even mor eintresting is what the track is going to be. The system has formed quite abit further west then what was first expected and it still seems to be drifting generally NNW which is slowly bnut surely puting S.Frloida out of the path for this system but these systems are known to be extremely unstable and erratic in terms of their path.

Stil lat least tracking the system should be easier now we have finally identified a clear and dominant LLC...just a shame its nearly totally naked and in such harsh condtions, so thankfully for whereever it makes landfall it shouldn't get no stronger then what it is now, if anything it may well weaken, despite the models expecting it to get close to 50kts before landfall. Unless the convection can wrap around itslef, its going to have a very hard time.

(ps, worth noting that despite its lack of strength this system could still dump a lot of rain, radar shows that the system is laden with moisture on its eastern side, 8 inches is feesable considering current radar veiws over S.Florifa and the keys. It's bone dry mind you on its western side.)

[Thundersquall]

Now that a tropical storm has formed, bang goes any chance of forecasting the British Isles weather beyond about 5 days ahead!

Whenever a TD or hurricane or Extra Tropical Depression moves into the Atlantic on its way to the British Isles, it causes the models

all kinds of 'headaches'.

[kold weather]

Yeah I was saying that to West in the model thread how these tropical cyclones tend to cause large problems downstream.

By the way worth noting that some models have this system giving 8 inches of rain to Western part sof Florida so it could be quite a wet day when it does eventually make landfll but all rai is on the eastern side which is where the TS winds are without that mass of convection on the eastern side, Alberto really is nothing but a weak naked swirl but won't be strong enough to sustain TS status. Really badly needs the convection to wrap around itslef and for more convection to fire up closer to the center BUT if the shear does lay off then its got the structure in place to get stronger, but its a larege IF as to whether the shear will ease off at all and I tend to doubt that.

[Paranoid]

I had a look on Wikipedia, and its current pressure is listed as 1004mb, but as TD-1, it was listed as 1003mb. Is this an error or has Alberto moved into areas of higher pressure?

[kold weather]

Yeah thats the case Paranoid, the pressure has actually risen a little, but then again 1003 is pretty deep for just a TD in the firs tplace so it shouldn't be that suprising.

Oh I hate these weak sheared dry intrusion filled systems, because they tend to be extremely unstable therefore extremely annoying to forecast.

[Mondy]

Yeah, and the floater is hardly conclusive at the moment either:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I think i'm correct - Alberto has formed at roughly the same time as the first TS last year.

[Thundersquall]

Yeah, and the floater is hardly conclusive at the moment either:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I think i'm correct - Alberto has formed at roughly the same time as the first TS last year.

The floater satellite image movie shows some massive overshooting cloud-tops, visible just off the western coast of Florida.

[Paranoid]

How long lasting is this system going to be? Same sort of timespan as Arlene?

[kold weather]

Indeed Arlene formed about a day sooner then this system has. It was also verey lop-sided but it had less shear to contend with then Alberto who is now being stripped of all its convection as shear has increased again voer the last few hours it seems. Paranoid, i personally can't see this system lasting that long to be honest, and even if it does survive for a while it'll end up a bare swirl with little convection and probably winds barely of TD strength. Its only the convection t othe systems east that presently has TS force winds.

[WhiteFox]

Current forecasts on The Weather Channel are going for land fall in Florida over the next 24-36 hours. Alberto is expected to head North and then North East. They're calling this a 'rainmaker' and winds are expected to max out at about 40 mph. Potential for up to 10 inches of rain in parts of Florida though. Wind shear is preventing further development, with heaviest rain expected to the East-South-East of the storm centre. To the North and West, there is very little development. Very interesting graphic despicting this has just been shown on TWC.

Tampa is currently more than 8inches short on rainfall, so rain is welcome, but not this much so quickly!

Addit, forecasts are going for Alberto to clear the Florida panhandle by Wednesday.

Edited June 11, 2006 by WhiteFox

[WhiteFox]

Further to earlier information, the cold front which passed over Illinois yesterday continues to head south. This is why Alberto will move to the East from the current position.

Some good stuff on this site.

Also, take a look at this image showing cloud depths. A perfect illustration of the effect of wind shear. Bear in mind that the centre of the system is to the North of the Yucaton Peninsula. The Western side is almost non-existent.

[Mondy]

Looks to me like Alberto is making a go for it :huh:

http://weather.orlandosentinel.com/global/...RSatellite.html - IR loop

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-of-Mexico/sst.html - Sea Surface Temps for the area

[AmericanIceman]

Woooo! Here comes Alberto! With every advisory release, the forecast track brings the eye closer and to my area. If this things continues to get stronger me may see some gusty winds!

[Mondy]

Very much organising quickly. I detect an eye (LLC) emerging!

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeir3.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ft.html

[kold weather]

Looks like Alberto has had that miricle it needed yesterday!

Seriously I'm quite suprised by just strongly Alberto is fighting against its bad-surrondings, looks like this seasons systems have the tenacity of last seasons systems!

It's definatly looknig the strongest it ever has and I agree with the NHc estimates of 50mph for this system. It's LLc was on the brink of fading out yesterday as the shear kept blasting the systems convection away. It seems like al lof the sudden for a few hours at least the shear has lessened quite a lot. Because of this the convection has re-built back westwards and thus making the storm stronger once more.

Still its done well and there is now argueably a CDO present over the eastern section of the center and even the western side has got some convection, though not nearly as much as this system is still very lop-sided thanks to the shear and dry air present. Still it has made a comeback, some moisture from the south coupled with a decrease in shear has given this system a window to strengthen.

How strong it'll get is purely ging to be base don how long the lighter shear lasts and whether it can keep out the dry air on the western extent. Big if but IF it were to keep the shear and dry air away then in theory the waters are warm enough for at least a Cat-1 hurricane. not saying thats going to happen because I think it won't have enough time and condtions simply aren't good enough but we could be looking now at a strong tropical storm making landfall in Florida somewhere in the big bend. Certainly going to be intresting to see how strong it'll get, maybe even cat-1 gusts by the coasts.

Track now uniformaly agreed upon by the models, which is NE/NNE with slight differences in the eventual landflal point which has a high chance of being in Florida. Still its definatly been an intresting start to the 2006 hurricane season....with a carbon copy of Arlene...lets hope it doesn't mean this season is heading the same way as 2005!!!!

[Mondy]

Interesting times ahead KW. Surely 2006 can't be another season for breaking records? :huh:

Anyway, this loop gives you a good view of how Alberto has chopped and changed over the days. Now looks the strongest it's been.

Interestingly, the loop gives a view of possible developing waves crossing the Atlantic (from Africa)

Bouy 42003 (E GULF 260 nm South of Panama City, FL) reporting 19ft waves http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Edited June 12, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy