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Tropical storm Alberto

Thundersquall
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Looks like it'll make landfall quite abit to the south of you AmericanIceman. I'd still expect possible TS strength gusts and some rain as well but the main effects will be to the south of you.

Anyway intresting start to the discussion from the NHC explaining the reasons for strengthening and it states that the cente rof Alberto has relocated NE into the main mass of convection, why I'm not quite sure, but it has done so and that has helped with it getting stronger. Also seems like the good old loop current has done it again.

As I've said satelite imagery suggests it may already be a cane or be extremely close. Shear is still not causing no problems and we have feeder bands forming to the systems south which is absorbing moisture from the south, with maybe a hitn of banding as well as the system gets close to the 75mph mark that would make it a hurricane. Outflow also still pretty decent.

At a guess I'd say about 75mph at landfall as lower heat content will serve to limit the storms strength somewhat and reduce its MPI somehwat as well, but I should stil lthink that as long as shear doesn't increase there is enough oceanic heat content in front of it to sustain it as a hurricane and dry air really should be a problem no more thanks to those feeder bands. I suspect the system will give somewhere between 4-8 inches which may well cause flloding but it will give some relief to those areas that have drought presently.

So at a guess I would say yes it'll become a category-1, the first of the season as well. I suppose this system teachs us never to under-estimate systems.

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Paranoid Apprentice

Paranoid

Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
Posted (edited)

Wonder how many of the estimates we made will be correct? Both the NHC forecast and the GDFL put it as becoming a hurricane before landfall, and then maybe restrengthening to tropical strom strength after entering the atlantic.

Edited by Paranoid
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Gray-Wolf Accomplished

Gray-Wolf

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
Posted

Alberto looks to still be a little light on his Western side but not bad as a first attempt (this season I mean!) If we are to break records again this year then we'll have to get used to expecting the unexpected of storms/depressions so lets see what happens to Alberto after he crosses Florida (if anything!!!).

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Yep its quite a large system this Alberto.

Radar suggesting that already generally 1-4 inches of rain has fallen in central parts of western florida as the CDO starts to push over the system.

Recon has just been in, a slight pressure rise at 998mbs but just now a wind of 76kts was recorded at flight level which pretty much vindicates the 70mph idea. going to be close as to whether it'll make hurricane strength as it is now exiting the loop current but I'm still hopeful it can go one better then Arlene did last year.

Mondy, yeah thats a good site and its gonig to be steered further to the east obver the next 12-24hrs as that ULL over Newfoundland departs eastwards and the system will follow as steering current turns to the ENE.

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Mondy Enthusiast

Mondy

Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert
Posted (edited)

Pressure up to 998mb now - probably now meeting slightly cooler waters head on. Is it the demise already or just a blip :unsure:

The accuweather vis shows quite a decay, i think:

isaehatl.gif

Edited by Mondy the clumsy
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Be careful when using IR imagery Mondy at this time of day. They will always lead into thinknig that a storm is getting stronger during the night and weaker during the day. Problem is mondy the Ir measures the temps of the cloud tops and of course during the day, cloud tops warm and thats exactly what that loop of is showing. Overnight expect those cloud tops to cool back down again providing it doesn't lose any convection.

We'll have to see tonight whether the cloud tops keep warming, I wouldn't have thought it'll get much stronger now mind you.

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AmericanIceman Newbie

AmericanIceman

Posted
  • Location: Georgia, USA
  • Location: Georgia, USA
Posted (edited)

None that I know of. I've got a webcam which I could set up and stream, but I'm too lazy and I wouldn't be able to set it up anywhere to get any good shots.

Actually, I know know of one site with cam's set up along the beachs of the Panhandle and Big Bend, but they only update every 10 minutes, soo.

http://www.beachview.com

Edited by AmericanIceman
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Mondy Enthusiast

Mondy

Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert
Posted (edited)

Like most of those channels, Fox tend to glorify the situation..not saying anything wrong with it, but there is a wealth of "proper" information out there, ie the web - if you take time to find the data etc. Fox is for little old ladies.

On the other hand, their coverage can be good during the mega storms(of last year)!

As an aside, what's with the mass of convection near the Yucatan?

rb-l.jpg

Edited by Mondy the clumsy
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