Tropical storm Alberto

[Ryan M]

not for another half hour :unsure:

[summer blizzard]

As the radr image from American Iceman shows, there has been strengthening over the past two hours and as i result, i suspect that there is now Hurricane Alberto.

[kold weather]

Looks like Alberto is starting to re-ingest some srier air back into its circulation and has lost some convection since my last look at the system thanks to ingestion of drier air. Still recon has found some high winds that suggests it still in the 60-70mph range though really it should be brought down to 65mph based on the satelite loops. I'd suggest looknig at its starnge satelite look that it won't get any stronger. Also worth noting another convective flare-up to the south of the center.

It's certainly a strange system though for sure and its has fought well, still it does seem to me like its taken in some drier air and as Mondy said it has now moved into slightly less favorable sea temps and there has been a reduction of Oceanic heat.

Anyway track still pretty close to the NHC expeced so the system should make landfall pretty similar to where the NHc currently predicts, though it does seem to be moving faster now and its probably about 12-18hrs away from making landfall now which limits any further strengthening. Possible tornado threat in the NE queadrant and also could be some very heavy rainfall with possibly quite a few inches. Talking about the showers and convection is spreading across the state of Florida, currently reaching the east coast and some cells will have those tornadoes. The Sw of florida seems to be getting into the drier section now which is meaning a reduction of showers.

Mondy ,the mass of convection near Yucatan is simply being dragged up by Alberto, its the moisture being taken up as the system moves away with some flare-ups. A sign of a strong TS and stronger.

[Mondy]

Nice update KW - thanks for that :blush:

Certainly doesn't want to die in a hurry that's for sure!..the breakaway from the south of Alberto still lively.

If anything, the convection looks stronger in the Yucatan than Alberto - we await!

[summer blizzard]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/122024.shtml

According to the latest advisory, Tropical Storm Alberto has maintained its intensity.

[WhiteFox]

Current forecasts are suggesting that Alberto will not make hurricane category. Winds are forecast up to 70mph.

However, up to ten inches of rain are still forecast for parts of Florida.

[crimsone]

700 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

...ALBERTO MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF

FLORIDA...

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEARING THE WARNING AREAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA

FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO

PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO

ENGLEWOOD... AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST

FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER... AT THE

GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 120

MILES...195 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 130 MILES

...215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION...ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORARD...

IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER COULD REACH THE COAST

IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER... CONDITIONS ARE

ALREADY DETERIORATING IN THE WARNED AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO

LANDFALL... ALBERTO STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE

BEFORE REACHING THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370

KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE

OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS ARE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM

VENICE NORTHWARD TO APALACHEEE BAY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED

MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS

PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN

GEORGIA... MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND

NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...28.0 N...84.9 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

AT 1000 PM CDT.

[/quote

[MAF]

well it seems to be picking up then, lets see if the next advisory continues its trend for strength and speed.

[kold weather]

Quick update on Alberto. Alberto has lost some of its convection over the last 12hrs as the shear starts to get stronger again and as it has continued to ingest that dry air that had started last night as the water vapor loops show it has ingested large amounts of dry air from its south and west and the main moisture is now the north of the center:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

So it opresenty has a naked swirl, but to be fair to Alberto its still got a strong LLC that is rotating away very well still. Despite this the lack of convection has required the NHC to reduce the storms max winds to 65mph, though een this is probably too high given that lack of deep convection near the core.

Anyway core is now quite close to land, only a few hours away near the big bend, though oprehaps the most severe weather has alreadry passed with those large cells that moved through last night ahead, which probably had some strong wind gusts as well. Also there has been some high amounts of rainfall anything between 4-8 inches on general in western Florida which is pretty much what the models have been expecting. It's not so much the amount of rain that has been present, because its not that wet of a storm even on its eastern side but its foward speed.

Anyway system should continue to weaken over Florida as it looses its source of strength and by the time it comes out of the other side I suspect that it'll turn extra-tropical quite easily I suspect judging on its lack of convection presently near its center and the way the system is set-up being northern based in the main.

[summer blizzard]

Is it just me or is Alberto trying to form an eye.

[BrickFielder]

WTNT41 KNHC 130838

TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006

500 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

WITH A SLUG OF DRY AIR OVERTAKING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...

ALBERTO'S CHANCES OF BECOMING A HURRICANE ARE EVAPORATING. THERE

IS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE CYCLONE IS TAKING ON

A LESS-THAN-TROPICAL APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WIND

FIELD HAS ALSO BROADENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO.

PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT

WERE 64 KT...WHICH GIVEN THE RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTION...WOULD

CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE. A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 0Z

DID SHOW WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE ADVISORY

INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED

PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/8. AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE MOVES

EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BUILDING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE

TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE TRACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT BEFORE

ALBERTO GETS PICKED UP BY THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS

IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE CENTER OVER LAND FOR MUCH OF THE

NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ALBERTO SHOULD ACCELERATE IN THE

WESTERLIES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 72

HOURS...AND IS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL

CONSENSUS.

SINCE THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF ALBERTO WILL DECAY ONLY SLOWLY AFTER

LANDFALL...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF ONSHORE WINDS TO TROPICAL

STORM FORCE NORTH OF THE PRESENT WARNING AREA ON THE ATLANTIC

COAST. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED

NORTHWARD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Still looks interesting when it goes extra tropical. GFDL suggests it picks up quickly crossing out across north carolina with some cat 3 winds. UKMO gives it a similar trajectory but GFS keeps it more out to sea.

[kold weather]

Hehehe, I'm going to be lazy and simply post the NHC discussion about Ts Alberto:

A FEW HOURS AGO...A PARTIAL EYEWALL DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS EVENT MARKED ALBERTO'S LAST OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FLEW ACROSS THIS FEATURE A COUPLE OF TIMES AND INDICATED THAT THE WINDS WERE WELL BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. BASED ON SYNOPTIC AND RECON DATA...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT. THE CENTER IS NOW PRACTICALLY ONSHORE SO WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO FOLLOWS THE INLAND DECAY MODEL. BEYOND THAT TIME...WE EXPECT ALBERTO TO BE TRANSFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN A BIT IN 2-5 DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.

RADAR AND AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS WOBBLING BETWEEN A NNE AND NE HEADING. SMOOTHING BETWEEN THESE FIXES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 035/8. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA IS PREDICTED TO DROP INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND KICK ALBERTO....OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL VERSION... NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.

FORECASTER PASCH

Anyway system is now crossing over land and therefore its weakening. I still suspect that it'll become quite a powerful extra-tropical cyclone over the next 24hrs as it pushes NE/ENE. Convection has weakened quite a lot over the last 12-24hrs as its energy source has kept being depleated. heaviest rain now appears to be now starting to move over Georgia as Alberto injects dry air into the stat eof Florida from the now once again dry Gulf. System should have now made landfall.

[Paranoid]

not sure if this is of interest to anyone...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Alberto_2006_5_day.gif

[kippure]

not sure if this is of interest to anyone...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Alberto_2006_5_day.gif

Should just be in a weakened state, heavy rain and windy by sunday off the west coast of Ireland. However Alberto is threatening to turn into a hurricaine as it reachs the florida coast. Could we be seening a differant start to this season.Whats to say that it may strenghten as it reachs the west coast of ireland and give us a summer storm. :lol:

[SnowBear]

Hiya folks! (all those from last year, those that have changed names and new faces this year!)

Another summer of long nights watching recons and sat pics then eh ? Last year was very educating and the discussions were exellent!!

Perhaps not so many "disaster" hurricanes this year though please Mother Nature, but plenty to keep us busy.

:lol:

Edited June 13, 2006 by SnowBear

[Paranoid]

Well, the season's only just started, there's plenty more storms to come, hopefully this season won't be as damaging as the last.

Also, i've been looking up some cyclones in the indian ocean, one was south of Sumatra, called Cyclone Nicholas (1985). I'm trying to work out how strong a storm would be there with a pressure of 945mbars. One site put it at Category 2, but another site had it's max winds at 99 knots (113mph) which would put it at Category 3. If anyone can help then thanks.

Edited June 13, 2006 by Paranoid

[crimsone]

erm, why does that track forecast posted on wikipedia aim the system directly at N.Ireland and the UK? Surely to god it will be exratropical by then and very much weakened, trarther than still a TS as indicated on the track?

[Somerset Squall]

erm, why does that track forecast posted on wikipedia aim the system directly at N.Ireland and the UK? Surely to god it will be exratropical by then and very much weakened, trarther than still a TS as indicated on the track?

The forecast is for it to be extratropical very soon- I don't think it's track after leaving North Florida is very certain though.

[crimsone]

Absolutely. All sorts of things can get in the way of it's track after leaving the west atlantic zone. It just seemed a really odd track forcast to me. :o