July CET

[summer blizzard]

I have opened this thread to discuss the July CET, after the warmest June for thirty years, will July challenge the 1983 CET record of 19.5C or will this summer go the way of 1993, with a warm June but cool next five months?

My teleconnection repetition forecast goes for a CET within 0.5C of 20C, which is 3.5C above average, this method has a 2 out of 3 success rate however due to the CET estimate for June being anomolously low in comparison to the final figure and the predicted figure for July being extremely high, i am also going to use my other July forecast which takes into account a number of factors and predicts a CET within 0.5C of 17.5C, if i average this, i get a figure of 18.8C, which is 2.3C above average.

My CET estimate for July is 18.8C, which is 2.3C above average.

Interestringly, if the June CET was 16.1C and the July CET was 18.8C, then August would need a CET of only 17.2C in order for summer 2006 to beat 2003, a CET of 17.4C would be needed to beat 1995 and a CET of 17.9C, in order to beat 1976.

If my CET prediction is within 0.5C of the final figure, i will consider this forecast a success.

The July average is 16.5C.

[stricklands]

im going to go for 18.6

[Weather-history]

Last time July .....

....had a CET >19C

1983 19.5

....had a CET >18C

1995 18.6

...had a CET >17C

2003 17.6

...had a CET <16C

2004 15.8

...had a CET <15C

1988 14.7

...had a CET <14C

1922 13.7

...was the warmest month of the summer

2005 Jun 15.5 Jul 16.9 Aug 16.2

...was the coolest month of the summer

1970 Jun 16.4 Jul 15.2 Aug 16.0

...was cooler than June but warmer than August

1966 Jun 15.4 Jul 15.0 Aug 14.7

...was cooler than the following September

1895 Jul 15.2 Sep 15.4

Here's a look at some interesting July CET facts.

July 1994 and 1995 both had a CET of 18.0 and greater. This is the only instance of this happening.

The longest interval between Julies with a CET greater than 18 is 34 years from July 1818 (18.2) to July 1852 (18.7)

The longest period of consecutive Julies with CETs of less than 15C is 5, from 1839 to 1844. It also contained the only instance of two consecutive sub 14C Julies with 1840 and 1841 each having a CET of 13.8

The longest interval between two Julies with a sub 15 CET is 32 years from July 1922 (13.7) to July 1954 (14.2)

There have been only six instances of July having a CET less than of the following September

1895 Jul 15.2 Sep 15.4

1890 Jul 14.5 Sep 14.6

1875 Jul 14.8 Sep 14.9

1821 Jul 14.8 Sep 14.9

1802 Jul 13.5 Sep 13.8

1795 Jul 15.2 Sep 16.0

[summer blizzard]

Mr Data, will you be giving an estimate for the July CET??

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

Stricklands: 18.6C

Summer Blizzard: 18.8C

[Methuselah]

I'll guess at 18.1C...

[HighPressure]

I was hopeless in June, so lets say 17.5oC for July a nice month but nothing special.

[West is Best]

I'm also going for the same figure as Pete: 18.1C

I've been under-calling CET and I think with Continental Europe experiencing a very hot start to the summer, and the June CET likely to be the hottest for 30 years it's time to go for a warm/hot call on this. In fact I could see something even higher than 18.1C but let's see!

[Great Plum]

18.2 for me

[summer blizzard]

Snowprincess: 16.9C

HighPressure: 17.5C

Kold Weather: 17.9C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

West Is Best: 18.1C

Great Plum: 18.2C

Stricklands: 18.6C

Summer Blizzard: 18.8C

[kold weather]

This is a very hard forecast because the month could go several ways after a warm start to July. We could see the jet stream flatten for a while and we get westerlies (Though I think we'd need outside help) which would lead to a fairly average July.

The thing that makes me think it'll be warmer then average is the idea that Europe is already quite above average and therefore any drag of air from the south would be above average for sure.

Also the synoptic set-up seems to suggest quite often winds from the southerly direction at least at higher levels though the drag isn't quite strong enough to cause what i'd call a proper heatwave butr I do suspect that the Scandi high block to our east will be a strong feature this July, esp if we can get the odd remains from a tropical storm to boost the jet and prop the high up even more.

so I'll go with:

75% rainfall (Convective mainly though figure could be distorted by slow moving fronts.)

120% sunshine

Cet of 17.9C

[stormchaser1]

JULY CET FOR ME MY GUESS

17.8C

NIGEL

[SNOW-MAN2006]

tricky this month as a very warm-hot start will slowly breakdown to leave average conditions so i am going for 17.9

SNOW-MAN2006

[Optimus Prime]

Rarely do we get a hot June to be followed by a cool/average/slightly above average July.

19.5c for me!

[Terminal Moraine]

15.9c, based entirely on optimism.

T.M

[Summer of 95]

18.7C

I'm still sticking to my prediction based on the wet/cyclonic/dull May preceding a hot July; as per 1983, 1994 and a few others I mentioned in the May threads.

June although starting off well seems to have got stuck in a bit of a rut, a sunless rut, this past week.

[SteveB]

18.0c for me.

[Joneseye]

20C bang on the button for me...

[Snowly does it]

First 2 weeks will be balmy, then it will be cool, unsummery and quite delightful

This gives a hopecast of a decidedly boring 16.2.

[summer blizzard]

Terminal Moraine: 15.9C

Snowmaiden: 16.2C

The Pit: 16.5C

Bottesford: 16.8C

Snowprincess: 16.9C

HighPressure: 17.5C

Stormchaser1: 17.8C

Kold Weather: 17.9C

SNOW-MAN2006: 17.9C

SteveB: 18C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

West Is Best: 18.1C

Great Plum: 18.2C

Shuggee: 18.4C

Stricklands: 18.6C

Summer of 95: 18.7C

Summer Blizzard: 18.8C

Optimus Prime: 19.5C

Joneseye: 20C

[Dawlish]

Last time July .....

....had a CET >19C

1983 19.5

....had a CET >18C

1995 18.6

...had a CET >17C

2003 17.6

...had a CET <16C

2004 15.8

...had a CET <15C

1988 14.7

...had a CET <14C

1922 13.7

...was the warmest month of the summer

2005 Jun 15.5 Jul 16.9 Aug 16.2

...was the coolest month of the summer

1970 Jun 16.4 Jul 15.2 Aug 16.0

...was cooler than June but warmer than August

1966 Jun 15.4 Jul 15.0 Aug 14.7

...was cooler than the following September

1895 Jul 15.2 Sep 15.4

Here's a look at some interesting July CET facts.

July 1994 and 1995 both had a CET of 18.0 and greater. This is the only instance of this happening.

The longest interval between Julies with a CET greater than 18 is 34 years from July 1818 (18.2) to July 1852 (18.7)

The longest period of consecutive Julies with CETs of less than 15C is 5, from 1839 to 1844. It also contained the only instance of two consecutive sub 14C Julies with 1840 and 1841 each having a CET of 13.8

The longest interval between two Julies with a sub 15 CET is 32 years from July 1922 (13.7) to July 1954 (14.2)

There have been only six instances of July having a CET less than of the following September

1895 Jul 15.2 Sep 15.4

1890 Jul 14.5 Sep 14.6

1875 Jul 14.8 Sep 14.9

1821 Jul 14.8 Sep 14.9

1802 Jul 13.5 Sep 13.8

1795 Jul 15.2 Sep 16.0

Thanks Mr. Data. You are a star! The longest interval I've ever had between Julies was about 7 years - between being 22 and marrying one at 29!

*>))

[kold weather]

i'll tell you what is intresting, how nearly everyone has gone for a warmer then average July. Seems to indicate to me that everyone suspects that because we've had an above average Jne we will have above average July.

Those forecasting CET above 18C better be praying that the 06z is wrong because from 228hrs it actually looks quite below average!

Still thats a long way out and the first two ays certainly do look quite hot and the CEt wil lbe very high for those 2-3 days, the real debate is what will come afterwards. Generally the models seem to be expecting a cool-down of some sorts though to what degree is very uncertain.

[shuggee]

18.4ºC for me. Warmer than average due to continental blocking.

[The PIT]

Well I'll go for 16.5C

[Bottesford]

16.8C for me. Above average but not by a lot. I suspect some sort of unsettled spell at some point in July.

Hope to be proven wrong with a way above average month again

[reef]

Only 6 times since 1900 has there been a combination of a June and July more than 1°C above average (1933, 1934, 1935, 1947, 1976, 2003).

Another interesting statistic is that since 1997 every single July since has followed a checkerboard pattern of above/below average temperatures:

1997: 0.6°C above average

1998: 0.6°C below average

1999: 1.6°C above average

2000: 0.6°C below average

2001: 0.7°C above average

2002: 0.5°C below average

2003: 1.1°C above average

2004: 0.7°C below average

2005: 0.4°C above average

2006: below average?

Purely playing with statistics I know, but on this basis Im going to go for a month slightly below average though not massively so.

My estimate: 16.0°C - 0.5°C below the 1971-2000 average.