Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

July CET


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Terminal Moraine: 15.9C

Reef: 16C

Mark: 16C

Snowmaiden: 16.2C

The Pit: 16.5C

Stephen Prudence: 16.5C

Bottesford: 16.8C

Snowprincess: 16.9C

Beng: 17.1C

HighPressure: 17.5C

Stormchaser1: 17.8C

Kold Weather: 17.9C

SNOW-MAN2006: 17.9C

SteveB: 18C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

West Is Best: 18.1C

Great Plum: 18.2C

Shuggee: 18.4C

Stricklands: 18.6C

Summer of 95: 18.7C

Summer Blizzard: 18.8C

Scorcher: 19.1C

Optimus Prime: 19.5C

Joneseye: 20C

Edited by summer blizzard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
16C for me.

Although in reality I think that this summer looks more unpredictable than normal that an 18C is just as likely.

Still, I prefer the cold, so I'm going for the 16C (and very wet!)

You really like cool wet summers?! Yikes the only person I know like that seems to hate or fear being outside so warm weather is an 'inconvienence' for being inside locked away from the world...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

16.5 for me a rather average unsettled month

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Looking at the last few posts its intresting to see a swing in opinons. Most CEt ideas since yesterday have seen most people go for a more average month then the the people before yesterday!

Looking at the teleconnections I suspect that after a warm/hot start to the month we will see a return to more normal condtions and if we do get a negative NAO possibly even a cooler northerly as well by mid-month which would wipe out the hot start to the month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

I think......at a wild guess......having only just looked at this thread

I will go for....

16.6c

:D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

I have a feeling this July could buck the trend of the past few months. After a very warm first few days I think we could see a cooldown, before the warmth returns after mid-month giving a very warm second half. Something tells me it could be the 2nd half of July that could be considerably warmer than the first.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Terminal Moraine: 15.9C

Reef: 16C

Mark: 16C

Snowmaiden: 16.2C

The Pit: 16.5C

Stephen Prudence: 16.5C

SnowBear: 16.6C

Bottesford: 16.8C

Snowprincess: 16.9C

Beng: 17.1C

HighPressure: 17.5C

Stormchaser1: 17.8C

Kold Weather: 17.9C

SNOW-MAN2006: 17.9C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 17.9C

SteveB: 18C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

West Is Best: 18.1C

Great Plum: 18.2C

Shuggee: 18.4C

Stricklands: 18.6C

Summer of 95: 18.7C

Summer Blizzard: 18.8C

Scorcher: 19.1C

Optimus Prime: 19.5C

Joneseye: 20C

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I have revised my estimate upwards slightly...

Terminal Moraine: 15.9C

Reef: 16C

Mark: 16C

Snowmaiden: 16.2C

The Pit: 16.5C

Stephen Prudence: 16.5C

SnowBear: 16.6C

Bottesford: 16.8C

Snowprincess: 16.9C

Beng: 17.1C

HighPressure: 17.5C

Stormchaser1: 17.8C

Kold Weather: 17.9C

SNOW-MAN2006: 17.9C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 17.9C

SteveB: 18C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

West Is Best: 18.1C

Great Plum: 18.2C

Shuggee: 18.4C

Stricklands: 18.6C

Summer of 95: 18.7C

Summer Blizzard: 19C

Scorcher: 19.1C

Optimus Prime: 19.5C

Joneseye: 20C

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!

Well, the very start will be exceptionally hot and the coming week will stay well above average temps, but after next weekend, some cooler temps will bring the CET towards the average. by mid month, it should still be in positive territory, say +1.2C, or 17.2C.

The Second half of June may well begin with an Azores High and some very high temps again, courtesy of another North African heat migration. If this comes off, we'll see a CET well above average.

I'll go for a CET of +2.2C, very similar to June's difference. That gives an outcome of 18.7C. We could be looking at an exceptional summer. I hope August doesnt let me down in holiday time!

Paul

Edited by Dawlish
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Hmm, a long way out yet though Paul and 18.7C would rank up there with the al ltime warmest, and while its fair to say that the first 7 days would be warm enough to secure this quite easily, however as you say the models are wanting to cool things down somewhat. I have to agree with you though that i don't think it'll cool things down that much but i don't think we'll have a heatwave in the second half, it may remian above average by day but I don't think it'll get as hot as this weekend and week coming up.

By the way, based on GFs the CEt will be 20.2C by the 7th of June, though I think its under-doing the temps a little and a CET closer to 21C will occur.

(mind you the GFS CET calculations drops quite a lot over the next 3 days and by the 10th its only at 17.5C, a 3C dro pover 3 days!)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!
Hmm, a long way out yet though Paul and 18.7C would rank up there with the al ltime warmest, and while its fair to say that the first 7 days would be warm enough to secure this quite easily, however as you say the models are wanting to cool things down somewhat. I have to agree with you though that i don't think it'll cool things down that much but i don't think we'll have a heatwave in the second half, it may remian above average by day but I don't think it'll get as hot as this weekend and week coming up.

By the way, based on GFs the CEt will be 20.2C by the 7th of June, though I think its under-doing the temps a little and a CET closer to 21C will occur.

(mind you the GFS CET calculations drops quite a lot over the next 3 days and by the 10th its only at 17.5C, a 3C dro pover 3 days!)

Yup there's the difficulty Kold. Anything T+320+ has to be inspired guesswork for the week following that and complete guesswork for the last week in June. I respect the teleconnections forecasts, but they don't have enough credibility for me to believe them......yet!

Paul

PS On another tack, this June has put us in line for, yet another, warmer year than average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

According to the latest GFS run the period 1st July-7th July will have an average temperature; 21.7c (working out at the lowest possible sum)

That's 5.2c above the 1971-2000 average and a whopping 5.6c above the 1961-1990 average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

My predictions are about 19.5C.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Terminal Moraine: 15.9C

Reef: 16C

Mark: 16C

Snowmaiden: 16.2C

The Pit: 16.5C

Stephen Prudence: 16.5C

SnowBear: 16.6C

Bottesford: 16.8C

Snowprincess: 16.9C

Beng: 17.1C

HighPressure: 17.5C

Stormchaser1: 17.8C

SNOW-MAN2006: 17.9C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 17.9C

SteveB: 18C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

West Is Best: 18.1C

Great Plum: 18.2C

Shuggee: 18.4C

Stricklands: 18.6C

Summer of 95: 18.7C

Dawlish: 18.7C

Kold Weather: 18.8C

Scorcher: 19.1C

Summer Blizzard: 19.5C

Optimus Prime: 19.5C

Michael Prys-Roberts: 19.5C

Joneseye: 20C

I have added in the other CET estimates and upgraded my own.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I think I'm going to have to make an upward adjustment to my forecast, the problem is we got a pattern in terms of SSTA which is condusive for a constant Mid-Atlantic low which suggest lots of southerlies this month...

so I'll now go with 18.8C.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Just seen the Net-weather CET tracker, and lets just say it shows temps just a little above average:

21.7°C

Well actually its 5.2C above the average for this month. Still that sort of anomaly may grow a little more over the next 2 days but what about after that???

For all of us who have posted up temps 1.5C above average we've got to hope that the 06z is wrong because its a pretty cool run once we've had this heatwave with tmeps on average about 1-3C below average which over a 7-10 day period would wipe out any warm anomaly of the first few days of the month.

Still the 06z may be wrong but I've got the feeling that for those who forecast temps above 18C we may yet need another heatwave to make sure of such a CET because otherwise there could be a lot of us wrong!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
I'll go for 18.5c

Due to such a warm start it will take some pegging back...but pegging back I suspect will occur. I do not think below average is possible and the outcome will still be above average. To me the potential development GHP with southerly jet and onto blocking in Atlantic bringing northerly pattern will bring me to the conclusion of 17.4C. I personally think anywhere between 17 and 18c will be in with big shout.

BFTP [17.4C]

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Terminal Moraine: 15.9C

Reef: 16C

Mark: 16C

Snowmaiden: 16.2C

The Pit: 16.5C

Stephen Prudence: 16.5C

SnowBear: 16.6C

Bottesford: 16.8C

Snowprincess: 16.9C

Beng: 17.1C

Blast From the Past: 17.4C

HighPressure: 17.5C

Stormchaser1: 17.8C

Rollo: 17.8C

SNOW-MAN2006: 17.9C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 17.9C

SteveB: 18C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

West Is Best: 18.1C

Great Plum: 18.2C

Supercell: 18.3C

Shuggee: 18.4C

Jackone: 18.5C

Stricklands: 18.6C

Summer of 95: 18.7C

Dawlish: 18.7C

Kold Weather: 18.8C

Scorcher: 19.1C

Summer Blizzard: 19.5C

Optimus Prime: 19.5C

Michael Prys-Roberts: 19.5C

Joneseye: 20C

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...