July CET

[Polar Continental]

Have just calculated my mean for Burton, wow, currently = 19.4c

Paul

[Bottesford]

I've got average of 20.6C which is rather warm! Somewhat above official stations though being in my enclosed back yard.

[fine wine]

I see your point Reef regarding minimum temps. I should think this is even more apparent during the winter months when the warming influence of the sea will have a greater effect on your location, expecially during Easterly's or North Easterly's!

[Weather-history]

Sunshine totals are rocketing up. The sunniest July in the Areal series from 1929 is July 1955 with 265.0hrs

However I'm pretty sure July 1911 was sunniest than this overall, some places in the SE clocked up 300+ hrs of sunshine. Hastings recorded 384 hrs for July 1911

[West is Best]

Sunshine totals are rocketing up. The sunniest July in the Areal series from 1929 is July 1955 with 265.0hrs

However I'm pretty sure July 1911 was sunniest than this overall, some places in the SE clocked up 300+ hrs of sunshine. Hastings recorded 384 hrs for July 1911

Kevin - can you just remind me what the Areal series is? I know you've referred to it before but I've forgotten.

If the latest runs are right then we're in for a substantially hot June-July period. If I get a moment I'll have a look back to see what kind of records could be up for grabs. However, as Reef points out there's still 15 days of the month left ...

[Osbourne One-Nil]

16.5º mean temperature here so far. June's was 14.4º and January's was a much more pleasant 3.1º.

[Anvil Crawler]

Just checked my data for the month and i'm currently at 18.7C

[johnholmes]

on 20C here

[Weather-history]

Kevin - can you just remind me what the Areal series is? I know you've referred to it before but I've forgotten.

If the latest runs are right then we're in for a substantially hot June-July period. If I get a moment I'll have a look back to see what kind of records could be up for grabs. However, as Reef points out there's still 15 days of the month left ...

This is the Areal series

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/climate/uk/se...stics/ewsun.txt

The driest July on record is 1825 with 8.2mm. I think we can forget that record.

The warmest June/July combination is June/July 1976 with a CET of 17.85.

July 2006 would need a CET of 19.8 to equal it.

[West is Best]

The warmest June/July combination is June/July 1976 with a CET of 17.85.

July 2006 would need a CET of 19.8 to equal it.

Thanks Kevin. On what I think is the more appropriate Manley CET, the combined 1976 CET for June/July is 17.83. July would need to be 19.42 to equal it. I think even that's unlikely, but I suppose you never know ... http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

I'm really becoming more convinced that we should be using Manley not Hadley, not out of pique: but the more one looks at what Hadley have done with their stations the less and less viable it seems to me to maintain it's a continuation of Manley's CET work. It's just manifestly not the same series.

[Dawlish]

Thanks Kevin. On what I think is the more appropriate Manley CET, the combined 1976 CET for June/July is 17.83. July would need to be 19.42 to equal it. I think even that's unlikely, but I suppose you never know ... http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

I'm really becoming more convinced that we should be using Manley not Hadley, not out of pique: but the more one looks at what Hadley have done with their stations the less and less viable it seems to me to maintain it's a continuation of Manley's CET work. It's just manifestly not the same series.

I agree, WIB. The more you consider the validity of the changed Hadley series, the more you question whether the Met Office should be using it. Philip Eden has the word, which I learned from his site - inhomogeneity. What a great word! That's what the Hadley series possesses. The Manley seiries in homogenous ie it has continued without change.

BTW, I don't agree with you about the dominant influence of the Azores High this year on temperatures. Ridging has had an effect, but the real warmth, before this spell of hot weather, has been from plumes of hot air from North Africa and not from higher pressure from the SW!

Paul

Edited July 17, 2006 by Dawlish

[West is Best]

BTW, I don't agree with you about the dominant influence of the Azores High this year on temperatures. Ridging has had an effect, but the real warmth, before this spell of hot weather, has been from plumes of hot air from North Africa and not from higher pressure from the SW!

Paul

Oh I agree! The AZH has provided the synoptics - high pressure ridging, then cells splitting off eventually transiting east. At that point we are introduced into continental plumes. So synoptically the building block has been the Azores high, but high temperatures have come from the continent (as normal).

[reef]

I'm really becoming more convinced that we should be using Manley not Hadley, not out of pique: but the more one looks at what Hadley have done with their stations the less and less viable it seems to me to maintain it's a continuation of Manley's CET work. It's just manifestly not the same series.

Upon further investigation after the last debate on this I also agree. Why the Hadley Centre took it upon themselves to change a 315-year running series is absolutely beyond me! The Hadley centre series is probably more accurate as they use more sites than the Manley series (only two), but the point Phillip Eden makes on his site is a good one, no matter how accurate the current Hadley method is it is a totally different series essentially, so as you and many others have mentioned, cannot be compared to the Manley series pre-1974.

Needless to say Ill be quoting Manley series values from now on. Must be consistent you see

Edited July 17, 2006 by reef

[West is Best]

Needless to say Ill be quoting Manley series values from now on. Must be consistent you see

Fair play to you Reef. And I will also behave. If Manley shows a record cold winter over Hadley I'll bite my tongue and be consistent too! Good points you make there.

[kold weather]

Yeah I think I may well use the Manley series as well from now on.

If you are going to use that sreries then as West says you need to get 19.42C for this to equal the heat of the first 2 months of summer 1976. I think this will be quite hard unless we got another 30C+ heatwave before the end of the month, mind you this is quite possible i'd guess given the re-occuring set-up. If the beeb is right about how hot it gets that will help out greatly as well.

[su rui ke]

Beware of making such statements with 15 days of the month left!

It is most certainly going to be a very hot month, but to suggest that it is certain that it'll be in the top three is a bit premature!

The CET will almost certainly shoot up this week, but the heat will have to be sustained to the end of the month to keep it there. Even an 'average' last week would cause a massive drop!

I'm not so sure about that either though. If the CET were to stand at 20C after next Sunday, say, then I make it that a final week or so of average temperatures would only bring it back down to 19.1. With there being quite a large difference between the current first- and second-place holders, there must be a good chance that this July will be the second warmest in the series. Of course, if the final week is also warm, then the record could go.

Should be an exciting finish this month anyway!

[Dawlish]

Can you lot stop agreeing with me? Where's the fun in taking issue with people when all they do is to start agreeing with you!

I'm going off to lie in the sun in a huff. Dunno what a huff looks like and I hope it doesn't make me too sweaty, but I'm going to lie in one anyway.

Paul, huffed.

[Guest Mike W]

If anyone wants a complete Manley version of the series, I have the 30 year Averages for 51-80, 61-90 and 71-00 for the Manley versiion:

51-80:

Jan: 3.6 Feb: 3.7 Mar: 5.6 Apr: 8.0 May: 11.3 Jun: 14.3

Jul:15.9 Aug: 15.6 Sep: 13.5 Oct: 10.5 Nov: 6.5 Dec: 4.7

Annual: 9.43

61-90:

Jan: 3.8 Feb: 3.9 Mar: 5.8 Apr: 7.9 May: 11.2 Jun: 14.2

Jul: 16.1 Aug: 15.8 Sep: 13.6 Oct: 10.6 Nov: 6.5 Dec: 4.6

Annual: 9.50

71-00:

Jan: 4.2 Feb: 4.3 Mar: 6.2 Apr: 8.1 Jun: 11.4 Jun: 14.1

Jul: 16.5 Aug: 16.3 Sep: 13.7 Oct: 10.4 Nov: 6.9 Dec: 5.0

Annual: 9.76

Edited July 17, 2006 by Mike W

[The PIT]

Well the Net Weather Temperature tracker as shot up today by 0.21c and will probably do the same tomorrow as well.

[reef]

As it stands, we need the last 14 days in July to have an average of 21.3°C to beat the record of 19.9°C set in 1983 (Manley).

I think its going to be quite difficult, but as long as the next few days are as hot as forecast and the final week isnt too cool, we have a good chance.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As it stands, we need the last 14 days in July to have an average of 21.3°C to beat the record of 19.9°C set in 1983 (Manley).

I think its going to be quite difficult, but as long as the next few days are as hot as forecast and the final week isnt too cool, we have a good chance.

Crikey I find that astonishing, 1983 was exceptional wasn't it?!

BFTP

[funkymonkey15]

I thought the record was 19.5*C set in 1983? Maybe I'm wrong though

[Scorcher]

The July 1983 CET was 19.5C- I think there is a good chance of this being beaten.

Edited July 18, 2006 by Scorcher

[Guest Mike W]

As stated earlier by Reef 19.9 is the Manley reading, 19.5 is the Hadley one for 1983. From 1659 - 1973 the CET series was done by Manley so personally go by Manley, Hadley use different sites I think.

Edited July 18, 2006 by Mike W

[reef]

I thought the record was 19.5*C set in 1983? Maybe I'm wrong though

The July 1983 CET was 19.5C- I think there is a good chance of this being beaten.

Depends on which series you're talking about.

The Hadley July 1983 CET is 19.5°C yes, but the Manley value is 19.9°C.