July CET

[The PIT]

net Weather up to 19.56C another large rise. Phil Eden has it at 18.8C at the present time.

Edited July 18, 2006 by The PIT

[Thundersquall]

We are probably and I must stress only probably heading for a record-high July CET.

I can guess this, as the highest July CET in the 1990's was July 1995 with 18.6c.

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/datasets/uk/cet.htm

The UK Temperature Tracker is 19.63c, thus 1.03c higher than July 1995.

As the 1990's were the hottest string of years ever recorded (bar one) it seems reasonable to assume

one of these years contained a record-highest July CET.

Thus if this year's CET beats 1995's then it surely will be a record average.

Edited July 18, 2006 by Thundersquall

[Dawlish]

We are probably and I must stress only probably heading for a record-high July CET.

I can guess this, as the highest July CET in the 1990's was July 1995 with 18.6c.

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/datasets/uk/cet.htm

The UK Temperature Tracker is 19.63c, thus 1.03c higher than July 1995.

As the 1990's were the hottest string of years ever recorded (bar one) it seems reasonable to assume

one of these years contained a record-highest July CET.

Thus if this year's CET beats 1995's then it surely will be a record average.

It all depends on next week's battle and the strength of the North African plume vs the Atlantic push. If the former wins, the record CET for July will be shattered, with a 20C+ CET. If the latter wins out, somewhere around 18.7C- 19.2C would be my guess.

Paul

[kold weather]

I think the recor dhas got a very good chance indeed of falling give nthe very high mins we are going top see in the next 5-7 days and plus the maxes still loook a good 4-5C above average evn are this so-called breakdown. not to mention the CEt has risen 0.4C from yesterday so probably gonig to upto 19.4/5 by tommorows update. Looking odds on to beat the 19.5C figure and highly likely to beat the 19.9C figure as well.

I think we've got a fair chance of a 20C month, though i must admit I can't believe this is possibly gonig to happen!!!

[parmenides3]

Not according to the 16 day forecast. It may well all be spoiled by the last few days of the month. Only a couple of cool days/nights will see that average tumble, methinks.

[Guest Mike W]

It's a bit odd that according to his own reconstructed Manley figures on his CET chart for this month Phillip still has the maximum CET as 19.5 [the red line at the top of the chart]. Surely he could put another line of a different colour indicating the 19.9 mark, instead of replacing the 19.5 which may confuse. Perhaps using a dashed line for the manley figure.

Edited July 19, 2006 by Mike W

[reef]

I think the recor dhas got a very good chance indeed of falling give nthe very high mins we are going top see in the next 5-7 days and plus the maxes still loook a good 4-5C above average evn are this so-called breakdown. not to mention the CEt has risen 0.4C from yesterday so probably gonig to upto 19.4/5 by tommorows update. Looking odds on to beat the 19.5C figure and highly likely to beat the 19.9C figure as well.

I think we've got a fair chance of a 20C month, though i must admit I can't believe this is possibly gonig to happen!!!

The Manley value during June 2006 was a few tenths of a degree above the Hadley value, so as long as we record a Manley value above 19.9°C, then its almost certain that the Hadley record of 19.5°C would go aswell.

I still think its going to be tough though. Although this week looks hot, it is very dependent on the temperatures remaining hot until the end of the month. Bear in mind just to sustain a 20°C CET would require 25°C/15°C max/min's on average, but to actually reach it from a couple of degrees down would require higher!

Funnily enough Mike I noticed that yesterday. Thats the problem with having two different series, theres a lot of confusion. However I think I understand why Phillip has used the Hadley value, its probably because the continued Manley CET series on his site is provisional.

[Joneseye]

Kippure: 15.8C

Terminal Moraine: 15.9C

Reef: 16C

Mark: 16C

Snowmaiden: 16.2C

The Pit: 16.5C

Stephen Prudence: 16.5C

SnowBear: 16.6C

Bottesford: 16.8C

Snowprincess: 16.9C

Hammer: 16.9C

Beng: 17.1C

Blast From the Past: 17.4C

Anti-Mild: 17.4C

HighPressure: 17.5C

Thundry Wintry showers: 17.6C

Canadiancoops: 17.7C

Stormchaser1: 17.8C

Rollo: 17.8C

SNOW-MAN2006: 17.9C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 17.9C

SteveB: 18C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

West Is Best: 18.1C

Great Plum: 18.2C

Supercell: 18.3C

Shuggee: 18.4C

Jackone: 18.5C

Slush: 18.5C

Stricklands: 18.6C

Summer of 95: 18.7C

Dawlish: 18.7C

Kold Weather: 18.8C

Scorcher: 19.1C

Summer Blizzard: 19.5C

Optimus Prime: 19.5C

Michael Prys-Roberts: 19.5C

Joneseye: 20C

GuitarNutter 25C (late entry)

Will anyone get it spot on this month? :o

[su rui ke]

Not according to the 16 day forecast. It may well all be spoiled by the last few days of the month. Only a couple of cool days/nights will see that average tumble, methinks.

A couple of cool days (or warm days) at the end of a month never make that much difference to the figures - unless they are something really exceptional. If the CET was 20C on the 29th, say, then a couple of cool days (CET of 13.5) would bring it down to about 19.6. So, the CET wouldn't really tumble but it could be that it's enough to stop a record being set.

Anyway, it's still too early for those sort of calculations really. Let' see what the next few days bring first!

[Optimus Prime]

Can you lot stop agreeing with me?

I agree :o

Going by the latest GFS run, by the 26th the average temperature will be 21.0c. 5.5c above average and would get us on track for the first ever CET at 20c or above.

Edited July 19, 2006 by Optimus Prime

[MP-R]

My CET is currently standing at 22.8C. June was 21.9C

[The PIT]

I wonder if the Sunshine records have gone????

[West is Best]

Wonder if we'll get a succession of 30C+ days: that was one of the remarkable features of 1976.

The Manley CET up to close of play on 19th (yesterday) is 19.3C http://www.climate-uk.com/

Still a way to go to overhaul the Manley 19.9C record though the Hadley 19.5C will be overtaken in the next day or so. From there it's all down to the models, but the weekend and first half of next week doesn't exacly look 'cool'!!!!!

Edited July 20, 2006 by West is Best

[Optimus Prime]

Going by the current GFS run from the 20th-31st the average temperature will be 21.6c. The July CET will end up at 20.25. The hottest July on record, and by quite some way!

[The PIT]

Just checked our average 19.3C at the present time.

[kold weather]

The record has still got a great chance of falling and we've stil lgot a very good chance of the CET going above 20C, esp if the 12z GFS run was correct then we'd be looking at a very hot CET indeed for July and possibly the bvest July for heat ever beating even July 1983 and other greats.

[reef]

The record has still got a great chance of falling and we've stil lgot a very good chance of the CET going above 20C, esp if the 12z GFS run was correct then we'd be looking at a very hot CET indeed for July and possibly the bvest July for heat ever beating even July 1983 and other greats.

Indeed Kold, it all depends whether the projected plume next week (now at around T+156) is as potent as forecast and also whether it hits the UK coinciding with the warmest part of the day. Theres also the chance that it could still miss us all together (aka the GFS 0z run).

Coincidently, to actually beat the July 1983 value we actually need a CET of 20°C as on the Manley series July 1983 was actually 19.9°C. Currently we are at 19.3°C but this will be much higher tomorrow as today we've had 30°C again plus extremely high minimas last night.

[Weather-history]

The warmest May, June and July combination is 1976 with an average of 15.93

To equal this July would need a CET of 19.6 for Hadley

or 19.15C in the Manley series.

[paul tall]

My mean temperature is 18.3ºC, which is 3.1ºC above the 71-00 Durham average.

[su rui ke]

It looks like the CET could push through 20C by next Wednesday and if next Thursday and Friday are as hot as the GFS suggests, that hardly leaves any time for it to fall back below 20. It must be more likely than not that the July CET record will fall now.

[Bottesford]

And thus the hottest month ever in the UK... well since at least 1650! Quite something really.

[Dawlish]

Kippure: 15.8C

Terminal Moraine: 15.9C

Reef: 16C

Mark: 16C

Snowmaiden: 16.2C

The Pit: 16.5C

Stephen Prudence: 16.5C

SnowBear: 16.6C

Bottesford: 16.8C

Snowprincess: 16.9C

Hammer: 16.9C

Beng: 17.1C

Blast From the Past: 17.4C

Anti-Mild: 17.4C

HighPressure: 17.5C

Thundry Wintry showers: 17.6C

Canadiancoops: 17.7C

Stormchaser1: 17.8C

Rollo: 17.8C

SNOW-MAN2006: 17.9C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 17.9C

SteveB: 18C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

West Is Best: 18.1C

Great Plum: 18.2C

Supercell: 18.3C

Shuggee: 18.4C

Jackone: 18.5C

Slush: 18.5C

Stricklands: 18.6C

Summer of 95: 18.7C

Dawlish: 18.7C

Kold Weather: 18.8C

Scorcher: 19.1C

Summer Blizzard: 19.5C

Optimus Prime: 19.5C

Michael Prys-Roberts: 19.5C

Joneseye: 20C

GuitarNutter 25C (late entry)

Will anyone get it spot on this month?

One thing about this list that strikes me, is that 7/9 people with something sort of cold in their name have gone for a CET below 18C. Last month 6/10 of the same colder name people went for a CET below 15C.

I was just wondering, if the desperate need for some colder weather gets worse for the ice-people, the closer to the next winter that we get!!

Paul

[Optimus Prime]

Seeing as my CEt forecast was based on trends I'm happy with 19.5c at the moment. But I can easily see it reaching 19.9c+

[paul tall]

Actually, 7/10.

Kold weather, slush and summer blizzard all went 18+

[Dawlish]

Actually, 7/10.

Kold weather, slush and summer blizzard all went 18+

I couldn't categorise summer blizzard!

Paul