Nw Pacific Activity

[P.K.]

It is currently a bit behind the 1971-2000 average of 4.5 tropical storms up until the end of June. If the current TD gets upgraded it will be the second one of the year. Note tropical depressions are not numbered in this area.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 260600UTC 14.5N 118.2E FAIR

MOVE WNW 15KT

PRES 1004HPA

MXWD 030KT

FORECAST

24HF 270600UTC 15.0N 115.0E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW 08KT

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

FXPQ20 RJTD 260600

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TD

PSTN 260600UTC 14.5N 118.2E

PRES 1004HPA

MXWD 30KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 15.5N 116.2E 000HPA 000KT

T=12 16.2N 115.7E -001HPA +002KT

T=18 17.0N 115.1E -002HPA +002KT

T=24 17.3N 114.9E -003HPA 000KT

T=30 18.2N 114.0E -003HPA -002KT

T=36 18.9N 113.2E -003HPA +001KT

T=42 19.5N 113.2E -003HPA -001KT

T=48 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=54 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=

[kold weather]

Yeah a slow start to the season up there though thats not to say it'll stay that way dring the peak months!

Anyway it doesn't look to bad on satelite presently but as you say Peter the guidance doesn't seem to suggest it'll get much stronger then it is right now!

I'll keep this thread open now so any actvity can be posted in here.

[P.K.]

Yeah a slow start to the season up there though thats not to say it'll stay that way dring the peak months!

Anyway it doesn't look to bad on satelite presently but as you say Peter the guidance doesn't seem to suggest it'll get much stronger then it is right now!

The global models don't do much either with this judging by the central pressures given on the cyclone phase analysis page.

Activity builds up from July with that month averaging 4.1 TSs.

[wolves78]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_...06.06062612.gif

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_p...1162E.100pc.jpg

[P.K.]

You are much better off using the official data here. As well as being more accurate there are updates every 3 hours.

[wolves78]

ty PK i did try but forgot the link to the site i had an old bookmark cheers

[P.K.]

Ah yes they changed their web address a while ago.

Latest model guidance:

FXPQ20 RJTD 261800

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TD

PSTN 261800UTC 15.9N 115.8E

PRES 1004HPA

MXWD 30KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 16.7N 115.3E 000HPA +001KT

T=12 17.0N 115.2E -002HPA +002KT

T=18 17.6N 114.7E -003HPA 000KT

T=24 18.2N 114.5E -003HPA +003KT

T=30 19.2N 114.1E -004HPA +004KT

T=36 19.8N 113.6E -006HPA +003KT

T=42 20.2N 113.0E -006HPA +003KT

T=48 20.9N 112.4E -006HPA +003KT

T=54 21.7N 112.2E -006HPA +003KT

T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=

[P.K.]

It was upgraded at 0600 GMT.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 270900UTC 17.8N 113.7E POOR

MOVE WNW 09KT

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

30KT 60NM

FORECAST

24HF 280900UTC 20.1N 112.3E 80NM 70%

MOVE NNW 06KT

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 040KT

45HF 290600UTC 21.4N 111.5E 150NM 70%

MOVE NNW SLOWLY

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 040KT

69HF 300600UTC 23.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[wolves78]

T0602 (JELAWAT)

Issued at 12:00 UTC 28 Jun 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 281200UTC 19.8N 111.4E FAIR

MOVE NNW 08KT

PRES 994HPA

MXWD 040KT

30KT 70NM

FORECAST

24HF 291200UTC 20.9N 109.6E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

48HF 301200UTC 22.0N 108.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 300600UTC 06.6N 138.6E FAIR

MOVE NNW SLOWLY

PRES 1006HPA

MXWD 030KT

FORECAST

24HF 010600UTC 08.5N 137.5E 150NM 70%

MOVE NNW SLOWLY

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

[crimsone]

Current activity...

04W.NONAME - and my word it's pretty!!!!!!

Invest 95W - Not bad, but going nowhere. Land approaches rapidly. Still, should produce a few storms.

Finally, 96W - Looks very good to my eye...

Edited July 3, 2006 by crimsone

[P.K.]

Typhoon Ewiniar (0603) has intensified rapidly the morning and is now up to 80kts. The system you have marked up as 95W there has been a TD since this morning as well.

Edited July 3, 2006 by P.K.

[su rui ke]

Typhoon Ewiniar (0603) has intensified rapidly the morning and is now up to 80kts. The system you have marked up as 95W there has been a TD since this morning as well.

We are now getting advance warnings of this storm from the local weather station. They say the pressure was

940 mb at 2 pm (Chinese time) today. It is now a 'strong' typhoon.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hey guys.

This is my first post on here, and look forward to posting more as the summer months wear on and activity in the N hemisphere really kicks off!

06W has formed in the NW Pacific. This is the latest from JMA:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 180900UTC 09.5N 145.0E POOR

MOVE W SLOWLY

PRES 1006HPA

MXWD 030KT

FORECAST

24HF 190900UTC 10.4N 143.0E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hello all.

Typhoon Kaemi is now the 3rd typhoon on the NW Pacfic season. Here's the latest data according to JMA:

T0605 (KAEMI)

Issued at 06:00 UTC 21 Jul 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) UPGRADED FROM STS

ANALYSIS

PSTN 210600UTC 15.8N 132.8E FAIR

MOVE WNW 13KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 070KT

50KT 60NM

30KT 220NM

The current forecast track is split at the moment. JTWC and CWB (Taiwan) have similar tracks forecasting the typhoon to make landfall on east coast of Taiwan.

The JMA track takes Kaemi more northwards towards the Ryuku islands instead.

Should Kaemi stay on a track toward Taiwan and not be forecast to weaken considerabley near landfall, I'll be on a flight over there. I'm currently in Bangkok and really enjoying the tropical sun kick off the convection!

James

P.S from Typhoon2000.ph

KAEMI {pronounced: gae~mi}, meaning: An ant. A very

small insect that lives in highly organized groups.

It often appears in Korean fairy tales as a symbol

of diligence. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

[parmenides3]

As nobody seems to have noticed, I thought some of you might be interested in the current status of Kaemi: it's about to belt into Taiwan, then China. Waves to 24 ft, winds to 110 kmh, and a huge lump of rain. Check out the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre: http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html , or the WMO on severeweather.org.

This may not make the media, as there is little contact with Taiwan, and nobody even noticed last week when twenty million Chinese were evacuated/effected by the storms/floods; though there was some stuff on Reuters, if you dug, so that might be a good place to look for info after the event.

[parmenides3]

Additional info: check hhtp://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest and look for Chinese toll in tropical storm...", which is about Bilis and kaemi.

[su rui ke]

As nobody seems to have noticed, I thought some of you might be interested in the current status of Kaemi: it's about to belt into Taiwan, then China. Waves to 24 ft, winds to 110 kmh, and a huge lump of rain. Check out the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre: http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html , or the WMO on severeweather.org.

This may not make the media, as there is little contact with Taiwan, and nobody even noticed last week when twenty million Chinese were evacuated/effected by the storms/floods; though there was some stuff on Reuters, if you dug, so that might be a good place to look for info after the event. :blink:

Yes, the pictures I saw on TV after Bilis were about the worst inland destruction I have seen due to a typhoon in China. Whole villages were swept away and several hundred, at least, killed. Worryingly this latest storm looks like heading into the same region. They really don't need that down there at the moment.

[su rui ke]

Just to update, Kaemi made landfall at Jinjiang in Fujian province at 0850 GMT today. It is still heading northwest at about 20 km/h - so more or less directly inland.

[parmenides3]

Any local reports on damage/casualties?

[P.K.]

Yes, the pictures I saw on TV after Bilis were about the worst inland destruction I have seen due to a typhoon in China. Whole villages were swept away and several hundred, at least, killed. Worryingly this latest storm looks like heading into the same region. They really don't need that down there at the moment.

It wasn't even only a typhoon at landfall over China but a 55kt severe tropical storn so the death toll was very high. Kamei also made landfall earlier as a 55kt STS.

[su rui ke]

Any local reports on damage/casualties?

Not yet, but a meteorologist interviewed yesterday on TV said he expected the rain from this storm to last for three or four days. We won't know the full effects for some time yet.

[parmenides3]

JTWC have downgraded the typhoon now, but the weather radar shows huge amounts of rain for Vietnam, Korea, S. China. I know it is sub-tropical, but is this 'normal' weather?

Have you had any peaches yet?

[su rui ke]

JTWC have downgraded the typhoon now, but the weather radar shows huge amounts of rain for Vietnam, Korea, S. China. I know it is sub-tropical, but is this 'normal' weather?

Have you had any peaches yet?

My impression is that it has been a much wetter than normal July here but I don't have any statistics to hand - maybe I will be able to come up with some later. There is nearly always flooding somewhere in China in the summer - again it's hard to say how this year compares with others.

What was that about peaches?

[parmenides3]

My impression is that it has been a much wetter than normal July here but I don't have any statistics to hand - maybe I will be able to come up with some later. There is nearly always flooding somewhere in China in the summer - again it's hard to say how this year compares with others.

What was that about peaches?

Just picked this up from the Met Office:

World weather impacts

Levee collapses, 20,000 threatened

27 Jul 2006

Heavy rain has caused a breech in a levee in southern China, threatening to flood 20,000 villagers and their homes.

Soldiers are working to repair the breech with sandbags and tree stumps, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

Rain fell as part of tropical storm Kaemi, which has also left at least nine people dead and a further 19 missing as of July 26th.

So far 640,000 people were evacuated in the Fujian region ahead of the storm's arrival and 44,000 fishing boats have returned to port.

Rain and winds has also triggered several landslides and knocked out power, while locals are expecting further deterioration in the weather.

According to Wikipedia, Ningbo is known for its wonderful Fenghua (sic) peaches. I thought you might have had some recently.