Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen
IGNORED

Nw Pacific Activity


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Watford
  • Location: Watford

    It is currently a bit behind the 1971-2000 average of 4.5 tropical storms up until the end of June. If the current TD gets upgraded it will be the second one of the year. Note tropical depressions are not numbered in this area.

    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

    NAME TD

    ANALYSIS

    PSTN 260600UTC 14.5N 118.2E FAIR

    MOVE WNW 15KT

    PRES 1004HPA

    MXWD 030KT

    FORECAST

    24HF 270600UTC 15.0N 115.0E 150NM 70%

    MOVE WNW 08KT

    PRES 998HPA

    MXWD 035KT

    FXPQ20 RJTD 260600

    RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

    NAME TD

    PSTN 260600UTC 14.5N 118.2E

    PRES 1004HPA

    MXWD 30KT

    FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL

    TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

    (CHANGE FROM T=0)

    T=06 15.5N 116.2E 000HPA 000KT

    T=12 16.2N 115.7E -001HPA +002KT

    T=18 17.0N 115.1E -002HPA +002KT

    T=24 17.3N 114.9E -003HPA 000KT

    T=30 18.2N 114.0E -003HPA -002KT

    T=36 18.9N 113.2E -003HPA +001KT

    T=42 19.5N 113.2E -003HPA -001KT

    T=48 ///// ////// /////// //////

    T=54 ///// ////// /////// //////

    T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////

    T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////

    T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////

    T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////

    T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////

    T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • Replies 159
    • Created
    • Last Reply
    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Yeah a slow start to the season up there though thats not to say it'll stay that way dring the peak months!

    Anyway it doesn't look to bad on satelite presently but as you say Peter the guidance doesn't seem to suggest it'll get much stronger then it is right now!

    I'll keep this thread open now so any actvity can be posted in here.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Watford
  • Location: Watford
    Yeah a slow start to the season up there though thats not to say it'll stay that way dring the peak months!

    Anyway it doesn't look to bad on satelite presently but as you say Peter the guidance doesn't seem to suggest it'll get much stronger then it is right now!

    The global models don't do much either with this judging by the central pressures given on the cyclone phase analysis page.

    Activity builds up from July with that month averaging 4.1 TSs.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Watford
  • Location: Watford

    Ah yes they changed their web address a while ago.

    Latest model guidance:

    FXPQ20 RJTD 261800

    RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

    NAME TD

    PSTN 261800UTC 15.9N 115.8E

    PRES 1004HPA

    MXWD 30KT

    FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL

    TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

    (CHANGE FROM T=0)

    T=06 16.7N 115.3E 000HPA +001KT

    T=12 17.0N 115.2E -002HPA +002KT

    T=18 17.6N 114.7E -003HPA 000KT

    T=24 18.2N 114.5E -003HPA +003KT

    T=30 19.2N 114.1E -004HPA +004KT

    T=36 19.8N 113.6E -006HPA +003KT

    T=42 20.2N 113.0E -006HPA +003KT

    T=48 20.9N 112.4E -006HPA +003KT

    T=54 21.7N 112.2E -006HPA +003KT

    T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////

    T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////

    T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////

    T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////

    T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////

    T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Watford
  • Location: Watford

    It was upgraded at 0600 GMT.

    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

    NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602)

    ANALYSIS

    PSTN 270900UTC 17.8N 113.7E POOR

    MOVE WNW 09KT

    PRES 998HPA

    MXWD 035KT

    30KT 60NM

    FORECAST

    24HF 280900UTC 20.1N 112.3E 80NM 70%

    MOVE NNW 06KT

    PRES 996HPA

    MXWD 040KT

    45HF 290600UTC 21.4N 111.5E 150NM 70%

    MOVE NNW SLOWLY

    PRES 996HPA

    MXWD 040KT

    69HF 300600UTC 23.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    T0602 (JELAWAT)

    Issued at 12:00 UTC 28 Jun 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

    NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602)

    ANALYSIS

    PSTN 281200UTC 19.8N 111.4E FAIR

    MOVE NNW 08KT

    PRES 994HPA

    MXWD 040KT

    30KT 70NM

    FORECAST

    24HF 291200UTC 20.9N 109.6E 80NM 70%

    MOVE WNW SLOWLY

    PRES 998HPA

    MXWD 035KT

    48HF 301200UTC 22.0N 108.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Watford
  • Location: Watford

    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

    NAME TD

    ANALYSIS

    PSTN 300600UTC 06.6N 138.6E FAIR

    MOVE NNW SLOWLY

    PRES 1006HPA

    MXWD 030KT

    FORECAST

    24HF 010600UTC 08.5N 137.5E 150NM 70%

    MOVE NNW SLOWLY

    PRES 1000HPA

    MXWD 035KT

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

    Current activity...

    04W.NONAME - and my word it's pretty!!!!!!

    20060703.1630.gms6.x.ir1km_bw.04WNONAME.85kts-958mb-141N-1341E.100pc.jpg

    Invest 95W - Not bad, but going nowhere. Land approaches rapidly. Still, should produce a few storms.

    20060703.1630.gms6.x.ir1km_bw.95WINVEST.20kts-1003mb-173N-1098E.100pc.jpg

    Finally, 96W - Looks very good to my eye...

    20060703.1630.gms6.x.ir1km_bw.96WINVEST.20kts-1004mb-41N-1498E.100pc.jpg

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Watford
  • Location: Watford

    Typhoon Ewiniar (0603) has intensified rapidly the morning and is now up to 80kts. The system you have marked up as 95W there has been a TD since this morning as well.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
    Typhoon Ewiniar (0603) has intensified rapidly the morning and is now up to 80kts. The system you have marked up as 95W there has been a TD since this morning as well.

    We are now getting advance warnings of this storm from the local weather station. They say the pressure was

    940 mb at 2 pm (Chinese time) today. It is now a 'strong' typhoon.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • 2 weeks later...

    Hey guys.

    This is my first post on here, and look forward to posting more as the summer months wear on and activity in the N hemisphere really kicks off!

    06W has formed in the NW Pacific. This is the latest from JMA:

    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

    NAME TD

    ANALYSIS

    PSTN 180900UTC 09.5N 145.0E POOR

    MOVE W SLOWLY

    PRES 1006HPA

    MXWD 030KT

    FORECAST

    24HF 190900UTC 10.4N 143.0E 150NM 70%

    MOVE WNW SLOWLY

    PRES 998HPA

    MXWD 035KT

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Hello all.

    Typhoon Kaemi is now the 3rd typhoon on the NW Pacfic season. Here's the latest data according to JMA:

    T0605 (KAEMI)

    Issued at 06:00 UTC 21 Jul 2006

    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

    NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) UPGRADED FROM STS

    ANALYSIS

    PSTN 210600UTC 15.8N 132.8E FAIR

    MOVE WNW 13KT

    PRES 965HPA

    MXWD 070KT

    50KT 60NM

    30KT 220NM

    The current forecast track is split at the moment. JTWC and CWB (Taiwan) have similar tracks forecasting the typhoon to make landfall on east coast of Taiwan.

    The JMA track takes Kaemi more northwards towards the Ryuku islands instead.

    Should Kaemi stay on a track toward Taiwan and not be forecast to weaken considerabley near landfall, I'll be on a flight over there. I'm currently in Bangkok and really enjoying the tropical sun kick off the convection!

    James

    P.S from Typhoon2000.ph

    KAEMI {pronounced: gae~mi}, meaning: An ant. A very

    small insect that lives in highly organized groups.

    It often appears in Korean fairy tales as a symbol

    of diligence. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
  • Location: Sunny Southsea

    As nobody seems to have noticed, I thought some of you might be interested in the current status of Kaemi: it's about to belt into Taiwan, then China. Waves to 24 ft, winds to 110 kmh, and a huge lump of rain. Check out the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre: http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html , or the WMO on severeweather.org.

    This may not make the media, as there is little contact with Taiwan, and nobody even noticed last week when twenty million Chinese were evacuated/effected by the storms/floods; though there was some stuff on Reuters, if you dug, so that might be a good place to look for info after the event. :)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
    As nobody seems to have noticed, I thought some of you might be interested in the current status of Kaemi: it's about to belt into Taiwan, then China. Waves to 24 ft, winds to 110 kmh, and a huge lump of rain. Check out the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre: http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html , or the WMO on severeweather.org.

    This may not make the media, as there is little contact with Taiwan, and nobody even noticed last week when twenty million Chinese were evacuated/effected by the storms/floods; though there was some stuff on Reuters, if you dug, so that might be a good place to look for info after the event. :blink:

    Yes, the pictures I saw on TV after Bilis were about the worst inland destruction I have seen due to a typhoon in China. Whole villages were swept away and several hundred, at least, killed. Worryingly this latest storm looks like heading into the same region. They really don't need that down there at the moment.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee

    Just to update, Kaemi made landfall at Jinjiang in Fujian province at 0850 GMT today. It is still heading northwest at about 20 km/h - so more or less directly inland.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Watford
  • Location: Watford
    Yes, the pictures I saw on TV after Bilis were about the worst inland destruction I have seen due to a typhoon in China. Whole villages were swept away and several hundred, at least, killed. Worryingly this latest storm looks like heading into the same region. They really don't need that down there at the moment.

    It wasn't even only a typhoon at landfall over China but a 55kt severe tropical storn so the death toll was very high. Kamei also made landfall earlier as a 55kt STS.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
    Any local reports on damage/casualties? :whistling:

    Not yet, but a meteorologist interviewed yesterday on TV said he expected the rain from this storm to last for three or four days. We won't know the full effects for some time yet.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
  • Location: Sunny Southsea

    JTWC have downgraded the typhoon now, but the weather radar shows huge amounts of rain for Vietnam, Korea, S. China. I know it is sub-tropical, but is this 'normal' weather?

    Have you had any peaches yet? :whistling:

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
    JTWC have downgraded the typhoon now, but the weather radar shows huge amounts of rain for Vietnam, Korea, S. China. I know it is sub-tropical, but is this 'normal' weather?

    Have you had any peaches yet? :D

    My impression is that it has been a much wetter than normal July here but I don't have any statistics to hand - maybe I will be able to come up with some later. There is nearly always flooding somewhere in China in the summer - again it's hard to say how this year compares with others.

    What was that about peaches?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
    My impression is that it has been a much wetter than normal July here but I don't have any statistics to hand - maybe I will be able to come up with some later. There is nearly always flooding somewhere in China in the summer - again it's hard to say how this year compares with others.

    What was that about peaches?

    Just picked this up from the Met Office:

    World weather impacts

    Levee collapses, 20,000 threatened

    27 Jul 2006

    Heavy rain has caused a breech in a levee in southern China, threatening to flood 20,000 villagers and their homes.

    Soldiers are working to repair the breech with sandbags and tree stumps, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

    Rain fell as part of tropical storm Kaemi, which has also left at least nine people dead and a further 19 missing as of July 26th.

    So far 640,000 people were evacuated in the Fujian region ahead of the storm's arrival and 44,000 fishing boats have returned to port.

    Rain and winds has also triggered several landslides and knocked out power, while locals are expecting further deterioration in the weather.

    According to Wikipedia, Ningbo is known for its wonderful Fenghua (sic) peaches. I thought you might have had some recently. :(

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...