Nw Pacific Activity

[kold weather]

ABPW10 PGTW 272200

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN

/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/272200Z-280600ZJUL2006//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 129.5E,

IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST

OF PALAU. THIS NEW POSITION IS CENTERED ON THE MOST DEFINED CIRCULATION

EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 271800Z SHIP OBSERVATION INDICTED

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 14 KNOTS WITH A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1004.3 MB.

ADDITIONALLY, A 271701Z AMSR-E PASS DEPICTS THIS NEW CIRCULATION CENTER

SURROUNDED BY AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS

INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK ANTICYCLONIC

OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO

20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: SIGNIFICANT RELOCATION OF SUSPECT AREA

IN PARA 1.B.(1).

FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

NNNN

[parmenides3]

A new warning from the JTWC:

WTPN21 PGTW 300230

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 300221Z JUL 06//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

A 210 NM RADIUS OF 14.4N 126.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-

CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO

BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 292330Z INDICATES THAT A

CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 126.9E. THE SYSTEM IS

MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 14.4N 126.9E, APPROXIMATE-

LY 360 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST

12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION

INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF A BROAD BUT TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS MAY EXIST WITHIN

THE BROAD LLCC BUT CONSOLIDATION INTO A WARNABLE SYSTEM IS EXPECT-

ED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR O-

VER THE LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT. A CIRC-

ULAR FORMATION AREA IS BEING USED DUE TO POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE THUS

FAR WITH THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE AT

20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004

MB. DUE TO INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC AND ASSOCIATED DEEP

CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT

TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED

BY 310230Z.//

A new warning from the JTWC:

WTPN21 PGTW 300230

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 300221Z JUL 06//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

A 210 NM RADIUS OF 14.4N 126.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-

CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO

BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 292330Z INDICATES THAT A

CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 126.9E. THE SYSTEM IS

MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 14.4N 126.9E, APPROXIMATE-

LY 360 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST

12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION

INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF A BROAD BUT TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS MAY EXIST WITHIN

THE BROAD LLCC BUT CONSOLIDATION INTO A WARNABLE SYSTEM IS EXPECT-

ED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR O-

VER THE LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT. A CIRC-

ULAR FORMATION AREA IS BEING USED DUE TO POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE THUS

FAR WITH THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE AT

20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004

MB. DUE TO INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC AND ASSOCIATED DEEP

CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT

TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED

BY 310230Z.//

[P.K.]

That above area has been a tropical depression for two days now.

WARNING AND SUMMARY 300600.

WARNING VALID 310600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA

AT 36N 148E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST SLOWLY.

WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND

200 MILES ELSEWHERE.

WARNING.

DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI

YELLOW SEA.

WARNING.

DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 38N 141E 42N 142E

47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 40N 180E 32N 165E 38N 141E.

SUMMARY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 14N 127E WNW 10 KT.

HIGH 1014 HPA AT 31N 128E WEST 10 KT.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N 143E TO 32N 150E 35N 153E 33N 159E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Typhoon Hunter]

Greetings folks!

The NE Pacific is currently 1 tropical cyclone ahead of the NW. First warning for 08E has just been issued.

In the NW Pacific region TD 07W has been upgraded to a TS and is now in the South China Sea with winds at 35kts

Here's the latest from JMA:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 010600UTC 17.0N 117.7E FAIR

MOVE WNW 07KT

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

30KT 110NM

FORECAST

24HF 020600UTC 17.9N 114.7E 80NM 70%

MOVE W 07KT

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 045KT

48HF 030600UTC 18.8N 112.6E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 055KT

72HF 040600UTC 20.0N 110.9E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 060KT

It's unlikely I'll go for this system. However eyes out to the east, this is from typhoon2000.ph:

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Meanwhile, the new Tropical

Disturbance (LPA/98W/1005 mb) is now starting to consoli-

date over the Caroline Islands with a distance of about

495 km SW of Guam (9.8N 142.1E)...almost stationary over

the past 6 hours...sustained winds remains at 30 km/hr.

Watch for more updates soon..please stay tuned.

Su Rui Ke, I'll be moving up to Shanghai on 1st September and will be looking to intercept typhoons on the East coast. I'll let you know if I'm passing through Ningbo (maybe hook up for a Qingdao or two! B) )

[P.K.]

That other low pressure area has been there for a couple of days.

WWJP25 RJTD 011200

WARNING AND SUMMARY 011200.

WARNING VALID 021200.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

WARNING.

DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI

YELLOW SEA.

WARNING.

DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 141E 41N 142E

46N 150E 51N 157E 60N 160E 60N 180E 40N 180E 34N 152E 35N 141E.

SUMMARY.

LOW 1012 HPA AT 37N 152E ENE 10 KT.

LOW 1010 HPA AT 46N 164E EAST 20 KT.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 13N 140E WEST SLOWLY.

HIGH 1020 HPA AT 50N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.

WARM FRONT FROM 46N 164E TO 47N 171E 46N 178E.

COLD FRONT FROM 46N 164E TO 43N 162E 41N 158E.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM 41N 158E TO 39N 156E 35N 153E 30N 148E 27N

140E.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM 34N 115E TO 37N 120E 42N 123E 43N 130E 41N

138E.

REMARKS.

TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 994 HPA AT 17.5N 116.7E : SEE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Typhoon Hunter]

Here's the latest from JMA on STS Prapiroon;

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 020300UTC 18.6N 115.1E FAIR

MOVE NW 07KT

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 055KT

50KT 40NM

30KT 200NM

FORECAST

24HF 030300UTC 19.9N 111.9E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 08KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 070KT

45HF 040000UTC 20.3N 110.7E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW 06KT

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 065KT

69HF 050000UTC 21.8N 108.9E 220NM 70%

MOVE NW SLOWLY

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 050KT

Still headed in the general direction of Hainan Island.

[su rui ke]

According to Wikipedia, Ningbo is known for its wonderful Fenghua (sic) peaches. I thought you might have had some recently.

Going off topic a bit, but, as you ask, I was just given some today as a present. I didn't know they were 'famous' though!

'Fenghua' is correct, by the way. It's a rural district south of Ningbo and is where Jiang Jie Shi (Chiang Kai Shek) was born.

[P.K.]

It is only 5kts off TY status now.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 020900UTC 19.1N 114.2E FAIR

MOVE WNW 09KT

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 060KT

50KT 45NM

30KT 200NM

FORECAST

24HF 030900UTC 20.2N 111.0E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 08KT

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 075KT

45HF 040600UTC 21.5N 109.3E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW 06KT

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 065KT

69HF 050600UTC 22.2N 107.7E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 050KT

[parmenides3]

If the 24 & 48 hr forecats are right, this should be a typhoon soon enough. Current landfall around the city of Zhanjiang. Looks like China is getting it bad this season.

The Beeb has just caught it on the 2 o'clock radio bulletin. Must be real, then.

Edited August 2, 2006 by parmenides3

[P.K.]

It is has just been upgraded within the last hour yes.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Indeed we now have Typhoon Prapiroon, as P.K said recently upgraded, here's the latest from JMA:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) UPGRADED FROM STS

ANALYSIS

PSTN 021200UTC 19.2N 113.7E FAIR

MOVE WNW 10KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 065KT

50KT 50NM

30KT 200NM

FORECAST

24HF 031200UTC 20.2N 110.6E 80NM 70%

MOVE W 07KT

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 075KT

48HF 041200UTC 21.4N 108.6E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 055KT

72HF 051200UTC 22.1N 107.1E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 040KT

The more northerly track in the last few hours has really got the folks on the Hong Kong weather board going!

Edited August 2, 2006 by Typhoon Hunter

[Typhoon Hunter]

TY Prapiroon has been making a more Northerly track than first expected. The outer bands are affecting Hong Kong with heavy squalls and strong winds being reported there. Here's the latest from JMA:

T0606 (PRAPIROON)

Issued at 06:00 UTC 3 Aug 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0606 PRAPIROON (0606)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 030600UTC 20.9N 112.2E FAIR

MOVE NNW 09KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 070KT

50KT 60NM

30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST

FORECAST

24HF 040600UTC 22.1N 109.8E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 06KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 060KT

48HF 050600UTC 23.1N 107.9E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 040KT

72HF 060600UTC 24.0N 106.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[Typhoon Hunter]

TY Prapiroon is just making landfall on the southern Chinese coast and the inner bands are buffeting Hong Kong and Macau. Here's an interesting composite movie I found showing the tack of the typhoon:

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/...EG-1/200606.mpg

Edited August 3, 2006 by Typhoon Hunter

[parmenides3]

Good stuff, TH. Do you, like me, find the lack of interest in the Pacific at the moment somewhat peculiar? There have been many more storms and extreme events than the Atlantic, and the human cost (not to mention the economic one) is vast, but everyone seems to be waiting for another Katrina; better media coverage, you see. It really is disconcerting at times.

[P.K.]

Good stuff, TH. Do you, like me, find the lack of interest in the Pacific at the moment somewhat peculiar?

Talking of the Pacific has anyone else noticed the invest the NRL have in the SW Pacific? It has dissipated now but it was down to 1004hPa yesterday. Now the cyclone season ends down there in April so this is like an invest in the North Atlantic at the end of March.

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA 10

NORTH EASTERN AREA EQUATOR TO 28S, 142E TO 170E

ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE

FOR 24 HOURS FROM 2300UTC 02 AUGUST 2006

PART 1 WARNINGS

Nil.

PART 2 SITUATION

At 021800UTC.

Low 1004 hPa near 6S 155E. Trough near 3S 142E to Low to 10S158E to 28S159E.

PART 3 FORECAST

Within 150nm of low. Clockwise winds 20/30 knots. Rough seas. Areas of rain and

thunderstorms. Trough moving to 5S156E to 28S168E by 032300UTC.

Ok this isn't the NW Pacific but its not far away.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hi parmenides - it's interesting that you should mention that, because I had a rant just the other day about this. I suppose it's lack of English language media coverage over here.

Prapiroon is dissipating rapidly over S China.

The Pacific is like a kettle now. Here's SST's from this morning (Asia time):

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/NPAC-Western/sst.html

JTWC has three watch areas at the moment, one of which (99W) has a fair chance of developing over the next 24hrs in a TC. This sat image shows the disturbances nicely:

I caught a glimpse of that invest is the S Pacific...would have been entertaining if it developed!!

[parmenides3]

Thanks, TH. Excellent image; if that soesn't raise some interest, I don't know what will. I'll check out the prog. pages & get back to your.

[P.K.]

Another TD now.

WWJP25 RJTD 040600

WARNING AND SUMMARY 040600.

WARNING VALID 050600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

WARNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA

AT 22.7N 151.4E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 06

KNOTS.

POSITION POOR.

MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

WARNING.

DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA

OF JAPAN BOHAI YELLOW SEA.

WARNING.

DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 47N 152E

55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 39N 180E 37N 160E 38N 145E 42N 143E.

SUMMARY.

LOW 992 HPA AT 63N 154E SSE 20 KT.

LOW 1006 HPA AT 47N 154E EAST 15 KT.

LOW 1008 HPA AT 42N 168E ENE 15 KT.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 132E WEST SLOWLY.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 10N 150E ALMOST STATIONARY.

HIGH 1014 HPA AT 37N 125E ALMOST STATIONARY.

HIGH 1016 HPA AT 33N 153E ESE 15 KT.

OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 47N 154E TO 46N 155E 45N 156E.

WARM FRONT FROM 45N 156E TO 43N 158E 42N 160E.

COLD FRONT FROM 45N 156E TO 42N 150E 42N 145E 44N 140E.

REMARKS.

TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 990 HPA AT 22.9N 109.0E : SEE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[parmenides3]

JTWC are now forecasting a good chance of a TC development at 150E, 8N (South West of Guam). Note: Prapiroon was the eighth storm/cyclone to hit China this season. Only 400,000 evacuated from the area for this one, but at least 5 deaths so far. Odds on another TC in the next 48 hours? Must be good.

This from the Met Office:

Violent floods claim 24 Chinese

04 Aug 2006

Rainstorms in central China have caused floods and a mud-rock flow which have claimed the lives of 24 individuals.

In addition to the deaths, 300,000 people have been affected by the floods as 1,786 homes are destroyed, 26,000 hectares of crops lost and $25 million of damage caused.

Official state media Xinhau news says that the rains started in June and by August 3rd had caused a "major flood season" in the province of Gansu.

Local officials blamed the region's poor vegetation and poor earth for contributing to the damage.

© Adfero Ltd

Edited August 4, 2006 by parmenides3

[Typhoon Hunter]

JTWC has issued warning #2 for 08W and forecast it becoming a typhoon 3 days from now. Here's a great loop showing the convection around Guam at the moment...the area is really going nuts!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamircolor.html

Here's the latest text from JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPAAT

24.7N 147.0E EASTSOUTHEAST OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 26.0N 142.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUSOF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.WARNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPAAT 10.0N 148.5E CAROLINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.POSITION POOR.MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

Here's an article I found about the effects of Prapiroon's landfall...details sure to change over time:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/05082006/323/typh...s-31-china.html

[parmenides3]

Thanks, TH. Your ahead of me at the moment, because of my research into GW, so your updates are really useful. Keep them coming, please.

[P.K.]

That system isn't numbered yet so you need to be careful about referring to it as 08W as 0607 is the next number. Three TDs in the area now.

WWJP25 RJTD 050600

WARNING AND SUMMARY 050600.

WARNING VALID 060600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA

AT 25.6N 146.3E EAST OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXPECTED MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 26.0N 141.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

GALE WARNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA

AT 11.6N 147.6E SEA EAST OF MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 15.0N 146.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

WARNING.

DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI

YELLOW SEA.

WARNING.

DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 142E

46N 150E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 40N 180E 36N 170E 36N 150E 39N

142E.

SUMMARY.

LOW 1002 HPA AT 46N 159E ESE 10 KT.

LOW 1006 HPA AT 44N 178E EAST 10 KT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 21N 133E NW 10 KT.

HIGH 1012 HPA AT 37N 124E ALMOST STATIONARY.

OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 46N 159E TO 46N 160E 45N 161E.

COLD FRONT FROM 45N 161E TO 41N 157E 38N 150E.

WARM FRONT FROM 45N 161E TO 44N 164E 42N 167E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Edited August 5, 2006 by P.K.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Things have been slightly confusing recently!

JMA is now listing 3 numbered systems:

0606 - TY Prapiroon which has more or less dissipated

0607 - TS Maria which has just been upgraded from TD (incidently JTWC are referring to this as a subtropical system!)

0608 - TS Saomi which has just been upgraded and is located about 300nm SE of Guam

Forecasts for 0608 are a bit chaotic at the moment. JMA has a more poleward track compared to JTWC. The JTWC prognostic reasoning makes for an interesting read in regards to conflicting model forecasts. It's slightly out of date but still seems to confirm the differing tracks at the moment:

TD 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-

TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. THIS WEAKNESS

IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE EAST OF IWO JIMA. AS THE

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE PROGRESSES WESTWARD, THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD

WESTWARD, CAUSING TD 08W TO BEGIN TO TURN WESTWARD AFTER TAU 24. MODEL

GUIDANCE, CONSISTING OF NCEP GFS, AFWA MM5, JGSM, UKMET EGRR, WBAR

AND THE BETA AND ADVECTION MODELS (BAMS), ON THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL

AND IN POOR AGREEMENT. AFWA MM5 AND JGSM FORECAST A SHARP TURN POLE-

WARD EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON PERSISTENT EASTERLY 500MB

WINDS AT GUAM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED LESS

LIKELY. THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER, INCLUDING UKMET EGRR, NCEP GFS, WBAR AND

THE BAMS, FORECASTS A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE AND A SUBSEQUENT TURN

WESTWARD AFTER TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE NCEP GFS TRACKER TRANSITIONS TO

A DIFFERENT CIRCULATION CENTER AFTER TAU 36, CAUSING A SHARP EQUATOR-

WARD TURN. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SOUTHERN FORECAST CLUSTER

WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NCEP GFS AFTER TAU 36.

I'll try and make more head and tail of this tomorrow when I haven't had so much beer (don't worry UK readers in 10.20pm where I am now, not mid afternoon! )

[P.K.]

It isn't confusing if you just stick with the official data from RSMC Tokyo.

I don't usually look at the JTWC but the 0600 GMT position you refer to for the TD that is now TS Maria was 200km to the SE of the RSMC Tokyo 0600 GMT position. I'm therefore not sure about their thinking of this being subtropical as the convection is over the centre.

[Typhoon Hunter]

P.K. is right, not confusing if one follows JMA (had my eyeballs in a twist, too much Tiger beer last night! )

Here's how things stand in the NWP at the moment. We now have two tropical storms swirling in the NW Pacific - TS Maria (0607) and TS Saomai (0608) and an unnumbered TD.

Maria is forecast to intensify into a 55kt system and head in the general direction of Kyushu (S Island of Japan.) Saomi, which has just affected Guam, is forecast to move in a NW direction towards Okinawa and Kyushu. Here's the latest JMA data for Saomai:

T0608 (SAOMAI)

Issued at 03:00 UTC 6 Aug 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0608 SAOMAI (0608)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 060300UTC 14.4N 143.6E FAIR

MOVE NW 13KT

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 040KT

30KT 170NM

FORECAST

24HF 070300UTC 18.7N 140.2E 80NM 70%

MOVE NW 13KT

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 050KT

45HF 080000UTC 22.0N 138.2E 150NM 70%

MOVE NW 11KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 060KT

69HF 090000UTC 26.0N 134.9E 220NM 70%

MOVE NW 12KT

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 065KT

Eyes also on the area of convection about 330nm SE of Okinawa which has developed into a TD within the last 12 hours or so.

Meanwhile here are some links for youtube videos of TY Prapiroon's effects in HK and Macau (kindly searched and posted by Isaac over on weather.org.hk forum)

Rain and wind

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGOfniey7Mw

A US traveller walked on the street in Macau

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYAT_8lGAKo

Near HK University