Nw Pacific Activity

[su rui ke]

I didn't mean Shanghai itself was in danger, but that they are worried about the impact where it will actually hit. I think you will be fine in Shanghai. The area at risk seems to be the same places that got hit by the last two.

Are you permanently in China, or just a temporary contract? When I get a chance I must try and learn Chinese properly too. I only know a few phrases atm - and they are ones that could get me into trouble! I was planning to come over to Beijing and Tibet again for the new Lhasa train from next week but had to cancel because I couldn't get flights. With today's security alert and flights being cancelled to and from Heathrow I'm glad I did now. Might get back to Shanghai in November though.

Good luck with the weather.

Peter

OK, I see what you mean. Yes, that stretch of coast between Fuzhou and Wenzhou seems to get hit several times a year. I would think it must have one of the highest rates of typhoon/hurricane landfalls anywhere in the world.

I've been here for nearly six years (teaching) and will be here for at least another year - though I suspect it will be longer. I can't say that it's the weather that keeps me here though - it's either too hot, too cold or it's raining! (Well, it can be nice in autumn and spring, I suppose.)

Good luck with your next trip to China, although I hear those train tickets to Lhasa are very difficult to get. You might need to use some guanxi (connections) to get any.

[Blackie]

Got the guanxi already. The train tickets were sorted. It was the plane tickets I had poblems with. Mind you, I am in the middle of writing part of a guide book on China, so I need to spend more time here...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Saomai has turned into a real belter and is making landfall on the east coast of China. It reached supertyphoon status according to JTWC with winds of 130kts gusting to 160kts. Hope the Chinese authorities managed to evacuate people from low lying coastal areas. I'll post updates on the aftermath of Saomai - sadly i think it's going to be really grim!

Hang tight in Ningbo Craig, if this had happened a month from now I'd have been able to head down to Fujian/ Zhejiang boarder and check it out!

Meanwhile eyes on 92W, JTWC forecast a "fair" chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 24hrs.

[P.K.]

Landfall at 80kts (40m/s with gusts to 55m/s) , 940hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0608 SAOMAI (0608)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 100900UTC 27.2N 120.6E GOOD

MOVE WNW 11KT

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 080KT

50KT 50NM

30KT 130NM

FORECAST

24HF 110900UTC 29.1N 115.5E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[su rui ke]

Saomai has turned into a real belter and is making landfall on the east coast of China. It reached supertyphoon status according to JTWC with winds of 130kts gusting to 160kts. Hope the Chinese authorities managed to evacuate people from low lying coastal areas. I'll post updates on the aftermath of Saomai - sadly i think it's going to be really grim!

Hang tight in Ningbo Craig, if this had happened a month from now I'd have been able to head down to Fujian/ Zhejiang boarder and check it out!

Meanwhile eyes on 92W, JTWC forecast a "fair" chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 24hrs.

Still not feeling much effect here in Ningbo. It's turned into quite a pleasant evening actually because - as usually happens with a typhoon not too far away - it's slightly cooler than normal for the time of year.

I just heard a report that the total number of people evacuated in Zhejiang has reached 980,000. Also the forecast track continues to be northwest turning more westerly later, taking Saomai over northern Jiangxi and Hunan.

Edited August 10, 2006 by su rui ke

[parmenides3]

Saomai has turned into a real belter and is making landfall on the east coast of China. It reached supertyphoon status according to JTWC with winds of 130kts gusting to 160kts. Hope the Chinese authorities managed to evacuate people from low lying coastal areas. I'll post updates on the aftermath of Saomai - sadly i think it's going to be really grim!

You may be right. The Severe weather thunderstorms graphic has show heavy rain in Fujian ( & other areas) for 48 hours plus. Reuters reports the Chinese authorites are 'very worried' about the condition of many dams built in the 1950s-60s, and now Saomai.

This looks like the the ingredients for something truly nasty, fairly soon. I hope I'm wrong, but it does look bad.

[P.K.]

su rui ke: What kind of reported wind speeds have the media been talking about? (Measured and not estimated) I see it's speed halved at landfall which won't help with flooding.

[Blackie]

su rui ke: What kind of reported wind speeds have the media been talking about? (Measured and not estimated) I see it's speed halved at landfall which won't help with flooding.

Craig will be tucked up in bed as they are 7 hours ahead.

This is a link to a story from a Hong Kong business paper that went on the internet just now: http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail....&con_type=1

It says wind speeds were up to 216kmh and 1.5 million people were evacuated.

A couple of ships capsized and two deaths reported so far, but I am certain there will be many more - on the coast and way inland as it churns through south east China.

Peter

Edited August 10, 2006 by Blackie

[cartedj]

Hi Everybody,

Does anyone have any links to updating, animated satellite images of this region. This looks really interesting to watch. Thanks.

Darren

[Blackie]

Link to a story on the BBC this morning: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4782413.stm

Death toll up to 104, including 41 people killed when a building collapsed on them. Sounds as though it was pretty catastrophic, and it could produce even more devastation inland even though it has now been downgraded to a TS. I have been to villages in the mountainous area of Jiangxi province which is on its path, and the houses are very flimsy. Many of them are right by rivers, so any rise in the water level or sudden surge and they wouldn't stand a chance. That's why so much destruction was caused by the previous storms in other provinces.

Sorry, Darren, I don't have links to satellite images. I just hope things quieten down for the people in this part of China. Life is a struggle there anyway without this onslaught by Mother Nature.

Peter

[P.K.]

I am aware of the time difference, but Craig usually gets a good idea of the reported wind speeds from the news.

[Typhoon Hunter]

JTWC now have a Tropical Cyclone formation out for 92W. JMA forecast it to develop into a TD and move NE, will keep an eye on it voer the next 24hrs to see what happens.

[P.K.]

That was upgraded to a TD just as you posted that last message.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 121200UTC 22.5N 141.5E POOR

MOVE NNW 10KT

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 030KT

FORECAST

24HF 131200UTC 25.1N 139.7E 150NM 70%

MOVE NW 07KT

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 035KT

[MetSul Meteorologia]

We posted some damage, satellite and radar pictures from Saomai in a report on the typhoon:

http://www.metsul.com/secoes/visualiza.php...p;cod_texto=152

[Typhoon Hunter]

Metsul, thanks for posting that link, don't understand the lingo in the article but interesting images/loops none the less!

0610 has quickly intensified into a TS. Here's the latest from JMA:

T0610 (WUKONG)

Issued at 06:00 UTC 13 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 130600UTC 25.7N 138.4E POOR

MOVE NW 12KT

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 035KT

30KT 180NM

FORECAST

24HF 140600UTC 28.7N 137.7E 80NM 70%

MOVE NNW 07KT

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 045KT

48HF 150600UTC 29.8N 136.3E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 050KT

72HF 160600UTC 30.0N 133.8E 220NM 70%

MOVE W SLOWLY

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 055KT

They expect it to make a sharp turn to the west in the seas to the south of Japan.

Edited August 13, 2006 by Typhoon Hunter

[Typhoon Hunter]

JTWC have just issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for area of convection 96W located at 14.4N 126.9E (just off coast of Phillipines). This is not up on the JTWC website yet but details can be found here:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Blackie]

Metsul, thanks for posting that link, don't understand the lingo in the article but interesting images/loops none the less!

NW, If you copy the link from Metsul you can get it translated on Google. Click on "more", next to Froogle at the top. Go down to the bottom right and click on Translate. In the Translate box, paste the URL link where it says Translate a web page, and choose Portuguese to English, and hey presto. It isn't a perfect translation, but it works well enough to understand most of the article. Even works on Chinese sites, after a fashion!

Cheers

Peter

[parmenides3]

JTWC now have TS Wukong, SE of Southern Japan and strengthening.

Reuters reports 114 dead, 183 missing and $1B damage from Saomai, reporting Jinxiang was 'devastated'.

P

[Typhoon Hunter]

Thanks Blackie for pointing that out, I'll give it a go!

Apologies, the TCFA I mentioned earlier for 96W is a misplaced image (it's the one that was issued for Prapiroon and doesn't apply to 96W at all!) However 96W is looking quite tasty on the latest sat image.

Meanwhile TS Wukong is blowing 40kts and moving north at 6kts. Here's the latest JMA info:

Issued at 12:00 UTC 13 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 131200UTC 26.1N 138.4E POOR

MOVE N 06KT

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 040KT

30KT 200NM

FORECAST

24HF 141200UTC 28.9N 137.5E 80NM 70%

MOVE NNW 07KT

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 045KT

48HF 151200UTC 29.8N 135.8E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 050KT

Edited August 13, 2006 by Typhoon Hunter

[Typhoon Hunter]

Morning all (afternoon for me!)

There are now two tropical systems in the NWP, since 96W was upgraded to a TD overnight. Tropical storm Wukong (10W) is meandering slowly northwards and is blowing 45kts. It's forecast to take a more westerly track in the next 48hrs. By 72hrs it's forecast to reach typhoon strength. Here's the latest from JMA:

Issued at 06:00 UTC 14 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 140600UTC 26.6N 137.7E FAIR

MOVE NW SLOWLY

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 045KT

30KT 210NM

FORECAST

24HF 150600UTC 28.6N 137.1E 80NM 70%

MOVE NNW SLOWLY

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 055KT

48HF 160600UTC 28.7N 135.1E 150NM 70%

MOVE W SLOWLY

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 060KT

72HF 170600UTC 28.6N 133.7E 220NM 70%

MOVE W SLOWLY

PRES 955HPA

MXWD 070KT

Tropical storm Sonamu (11W) has formed off the east coast of the Phillipines and is forecast to head out into the Pacific in an ENE/NE direction. Current winds are at 40kts. Here's the latest JMA data on this system:

Issued at 06:00 UTC 14 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0611 SONAMU (0611)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 140600UTC 18.7N 131.4E FAIR

MOVE ENE 17KT

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 040KT

30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 150600UTC 22.1N 137.8E 100NM 70%

MOVE NE 17KT

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 040KT

48HF 160600UTC 29.5N 140.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[parmenides3]

Morning (afternoon), TH.

It looks like Wukong is taking a very similar track to at least two, maybe three, of the previous cyclones.

They all seem to be forming in a similar area of the N. Pacific.

I know this is the season, and cyclones aren't rare, but isn't this rather unusual?

What is going on around 10-12 N, 130-140 E? Any ideas?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hi parmenides which previous cyclones are you refering to? Ones this season?

Wukong and Sonamu are quite close to each other and there's talk of Fujiwhara effect coming into play soon which could see Wukong turning west and then SW. P.K. is the one to ask about this!! The image below shows the close proximity of the two:

Here's the latest JMA info for both systems:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 141200UTC 26.7N 137.9E FAIR

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 045KT

30KT 230NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH

FORECAST

24HF 151200UTC 28.7N 136.6E 80NM 70%

MOVE NW SLOWLY

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 055KT

48HF 161200UTC 28.8N 134.6E 150NM 70%

MOVE W SLOWLY

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 060KT

72HF 171200UTC 28.8N 133.4E 220NM 70%

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 955HPA

MXWD 070KT

Here's the latest on Sonamu:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0611 SONAMU (0611)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 141200UTC 19.8N 132.2E FAIR

MOVE NE 13KT

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 040KT

30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 151200UTC 23.7N 138.7E 100NM 70%

MOVE NNE 18KT

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 035KT

48HF 161200UTC 30.0N 140.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[parmenides3]

Thanks, TH. I'm talking about this season in particular. Everything seems to have funneled either to the N. or the S. of Taiwan, in a relatively narrow band. You mentioned a Fujiwara event before; I presume it refers to a conjoining of cyclones, but please explain a bit more, for example, what is the effect?

Strange to notice, also, that whilst one area is being belted, flooded and generally smashed, Shanghai is suffering from a heatwave; 36C plus, I read.

It must be fun, living in the Pacific!

:blush: P

[su rui ke]

I am aware of the time difference, but Craig usually gets a good idea of the reported wind speeds from the news.

Sorry I wasn't able to give you any more news on this. It was just my luck to be leaving Ningbo as news about this typhoon was starting to come through. You probably all know more about it than me by now as I have been on the road for the last few days. Parmenides is also right about the heat - I was in Shanghai on Sunday, which I think was the hottest day of the year - 38.6C.

One thing I did hear was that about 1,000,000 people were evacuated ahead of this storm. This was not some remote rural area that was hit. Not many people abroad may have heard of Wenzhou but it is one of the most developed and densely populated parts of the eastern coast.

Edited August 15, 2006 by su rui ke

[Blackie]

A good friend of mine in Shanghai I chat to on MSN every day told me that it was very hot and sunny there while the typhoon was hitting further south. Seems strange that it should have had such different weather.

I haven't been to Wenzhou but I certainly know that it is a developed area. News reports here said that 1.5 million people were evacuated, which shows just how densely populated it is.

Any news locally on where they think Wukong is likely to hit?