Nw Pacific Activity

[johnhk]

This is interesting,all the observator (Chinese Meteorological Office,Honh Kong Observatory,Central Weather Bureau,Japanese Meteorological Agency and even Korean Meteorological Agency) forecast that it will tend to move to Kaoshung rather than move poleward.

JTWC forecast is quite interesting, hope JTWC will not make the same error like forecasting Typhoon CHANCHU again.. :blink: :lol:

Let me also post HKO's forecast

[Typhoon Hunter]

John thanks for posting that, was about to check up on HKO forecast track, even Shanghai Typhoon Institute (part of CMA) forecast Shanshan to move toward Taiwan. I'll write a longer post once the latest JTWC track comes out within the hour...I have a feeling the poleward turn is going to become less and less prominent. We'll see!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Ok here's what I've been able to gather regarding Shanshan. First of all I'll start with JMA who is the official forecasting agency for this area. They have upgraded Shanshan to a severe tropical storm (STS):

Issued at 12:00 UTC 11 Sep 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 111200UTC 18.8N 133.2E FAIR

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 055KT

50KT 40NM

30KT 130NM

FORECAST

24HF 121200UTC 20.2N 131.7E 80NM 70%

MOVE NW SLOWLY

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 075KT

48HF 131200UTC 21.1N 129.6E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 080KT

72HF 141200UTC 21.5N 127.5E 220NM 70%

MOVE W SLOWLY

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 085KT

CWB of Taiwan have also upgraded Shanshan and have a similar forcast track:

Even the mainland Chinese (CMA) with they're wonderfully clear map agree with the Taiwanese on something!

In addition there's the forecast from HKO which John posted earlier this afternoon which shows a similar track to the above mentioned agencies.

Then's there's JTWC. They are really plugging the re-curve option now and strengthen Shanshan into a 115kt howler near Okinawa. Here's their latest chart:

Hopefully things will be a bit clearer in 24hrs time. Luckily for me this system has been slow moving so far, as I mentioned earlier I will not be able to travel until Friday 0100z when I pick up my passport from Shanghai Immigration Office. The way the JMA forecast is going I'm on standby to intercept....time will tell.

P.S Apologies to users whose computers may take a while to load all the pics.

[P.K.]

Shanshan is now a 70kt typhoon with an estimated central pressure of 965hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 112100UTC 19.4N 132.4E GOOD

MOVE NW 06KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 070KT

50KT 70NM

30KT 150NM

FORECAST

24HF 122100UTC 20.5N 130.2E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 080KT

45HF 131800UTC 21.2N 128.7E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 085KT

69HF 141800UTC 22.3N 126.8E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 090KT

[Typhoon Hunter]

Shanshan is really intensifying nicely. JMA expect her to become a 95kt typhoon! Will be interesting to see if they forecast a re-curve...at the moment they have a WNW track for forecast period:

Issued at 03:00 UTC 12 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 120300UTC 19.6N 131.8E GOOD

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 955HPA

MXWD 080KT

50KT 70NM

30KT 150NM

FORECAST

24HF 130300UTC 20.5N 129.0E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 06KT

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 085KT

45HF 140000UTC 21.2N 127.4E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 090KT

69HF 150000UTC 22.0N 125.8E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 095KT

It's possible to make out the eye on latest visible sat image. Courtesy of NRL Monterey TC page:

[Typhoon Hunter]

Shanshan up to 85kts now with pressure of 945HPA. JMA now forecasting to turn NW at T+72:

Issued at 06:00 UTC 12 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 120600UTC 19.7N 131.6E GOOD

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 945HPA

MXWD 085KT

50KT 70NM

30KT 150NM

FORECAST

24HF 130600UTC 20.3N 129.0E 80NM 70%

MOVE W 06KT

PRES 935HPA

MXWD 090KT

48HF 140600UTC 20.8N 127.2E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 095KT

72HF 150600UTC 22.1N 125.7E 220NM 70%

MOVE NW SLOWLY

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 095KT

Looks like this one could be for Okinawa...JTWC certainly think so:

[Typhoon Hunter]

Typhoon Shanshan has intenisfied and is looking beautiful just sitting off the east coast of Taiwan. JMA have her winds at 85kts (10 min) and JTWC 100kts (1 min.) CWB have issued sea warnings and the hourly track of the typhoon can be found on their website:

CWB website

Taiwanese radar is also picking up the eye nicely at the moment, here's the latest image courtesy of CWB:

Here's the latest visible sat image from NRL Monterey, it's very beautiful:

[Typhoon Hunter]

Typhoon Shanshan is bombing! JMA have upgraded her to a 90kts storm and JTWC have current 1 min winds estimated at 115kts. They expect her to intensify to 125kts. Taiwan is currently obscurred by the outflow and it looks like some strong embedded thunderstorms will be heading there from the north soon. The latest sat (courtesy of NRL Monterey) shows this nicely:

Since this is passing slap bang between Taiwan and Okinawa I'm unable to intercept, had she tracked 120nm east I'd have been on a plane 6 hours ago. Still I bet the wave show on the east coast of Taiwan is pretty insane!

[Somerset Squall]

I agree, a beautiful looking storm.

[su rui ke]

Since this is passing slap bang between Taiwan and Okinawa I'm unable to intercept, had she tracked 120nm east I'd have been on a plane 6 hours ago. Still I bet the wave show on the east coast of Taiwan is pretty insane!

You're probably going to see some effects even there in Shanghai though. There's a strong breeze here and the wind is forecast to continue strengthening today - maybe to gale force by evening. How is it where you are?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hi Craig. It's pretty calm here in Shanghai at the moment with light rain and a slight breeze. Looking at the latest satellite pics the outflow isn't that far from Shanghai...will keep post again if conditions start deteriorating.

[su rui ke]

Hi Craig. It's pretty calm here in Shanghai at the moment with light rain and a slight breeze. Looking at the latest satellite pics the outflow isn't that far from Shanghai...will keep post again if conditions start deteriorating.

Well, after a breezy but not unpleasant day here things have deteriorated quite a bit in the last hour or so with heavy squally showers.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hi Craig, just looking at the latest sat and it appears the outer bands are clipping your area. I'm not expecting much in Shanghai but something lively could pop through!

Shanshan is trundling NE after hammering the Ryuku Islands. Geoff Mackley's website www.rambocam.com has a great sat pic of the islands in the eye wall. JMA have upgraded her to a 100kt system which is very big in JMA terms and expect her to make landfall in Kyushu in 24hrs as a 90kt system which is far more powerful than at first thought.

Here's their summary and warning track:

Issued at 09:00 UTC 16 Sep 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 160900UTC 26.5N 125.4E GOOD

MOVE NE 14KT

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 100KT

50KT 90NM

30KT 200NM

FORECAST

24HF 170900UTC 32.0N 129.4E 100NM 70%

MOVE NNE 18KT

PRES 935HPA

MXWD 090KT

45HF 180600UTC 37.6N 132.2E 160NM 70%

MOVE NNE 18KT

PRES 955HPA

MXWD 080KT

69HF 190600UTC 40.2N 133.4E 290NM 70%

MOVE N 06KT

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 065KT

Here's the latest sat courtesy of NRL Monterey TC page:

I also have my eye on invest 96W. This looks like it's almost reached TD strength and has been upgraded to "fair" by JTWC.

[P.K.]

The TD is now TS Yagi. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/0614.html

[Typhoon Hunter]

As Peter said we now have TS Yagi far out in the Pacfic. Here's the latest from JMA:

Issued at 09:00 UTC 17 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0614 YAGI (0614)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 170900UTC 21.0N 157.8E FAIR

MOVE N SLOWLY

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

30KT 70NM

FORECAST

24HF 180900UTC 21.4N 158.1E 80NM 70%

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 040KT

45HF 190600UTC 22.2N 158.5E 150NM 70%

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 045KT

69HF 200600UTC 21.9N 156.2E 220NM 70%

MOVE W SLOWLY

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 050KT

Most agencies forecast a temporary track northwards before turning south then west.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Typhoon Shanshan has sadly killed 9 people in Southern Japan. Here's a link to some impressive pictures on Yahoo!, including a train which was blown over:

Typhoon Shanshan news pictures

Here's an article from Yahoo.

TOKYO (AFP) - Powerful typhoon Shanshan has moved off the Japanese west coast, after killing nine people, injuring 270 and leaving one person missing, as it cut across southern Japan, officials have said.

As of 11:00 am (0200 GMT), the typhoon was located 210 kilometers (130 miles) off the Japanese coastal city of Matsue in western Japan, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.

Shanshan, packing winds of up to 108 kilometers (70 miles), was moving toward the Russian coast, but was expected

(Advertisement)

to turn northeast to hit the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido by Wednesday morning, the agency added.

The agency issued high wave and strong wind warnings to areas along the Sea of Japan (East Sea).

It also warned of strong rains in the Kanto region, of which Tokyo is a part, and other areas.

"As the typhoon moves north, stronger winds are expected in the Hokuriku and Hokkaido regions along the Sea of Japan. Waves along the areas are likely to become suddenly high," the agency said.

The typhoon hit land near Sasebo on the southern island of Kyushu shortly after 6:00 pm (0900 GMT) Sunday on its way from the East China Sea.

In all, nine people, mostly in Kyushu, died during the weekend of storms in Japan.

A 39-year-old electrician died on the island Sunday afternoon, after an industrial container at his firm fell on top of him, according to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency.

Also in Kyushu, a moored ferry from Maldives overturned late Sunday, throwing five crew members to the sea, killing one of them. A local journalist covering the effect of the typhoon in western Hiroshima remained missing since Saturday night, the agency added.

An express train was blown off the tracks, in the city of Nobeoka, in Kyushu, slightly injuring six of some 45 passengers on board, police said.

A glass entrance of a supermarket in the city was crushed by flying debris, knocking down a shell with three people underneath it. One of them died after he was taken to hospital.

I hope they find the missing journalist in one piece.

Edited September 18, 2006 by Typhoon Hunter

[Typhoon Hunter]

Here's the latest on Yagi from JMA:

Issued at 06:00 UTC 18 Sep 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0614 YAGI (0614)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 180600UTC 20.7N 158.9E FAIR

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 045KT

30KT 130NM

FORECAST

24HF 190600UTC 20.2N 158.3E 80NM 70%

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 050KT

48HF 200600UTC 20.0N 154.8E 150NM 70%

MOVE W 08KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 060KT

72HF 210600UTC 21.4N 148.7E 220NM 70%

MOVE W 14KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 070KT

Here's their forecast track:

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yagi has been upgraded to a Severe Tropical Storm and is expected to reach typhoon intensity in 24hrs. Here's the latest JMA advisory:

Issued at 12:00 UTC 18 Sep 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME STS 0614 YAGI (0614) UPGRADED FROM TS

ANALYSIS

PSTN 181200UTC 20.7N 159.4E FAIR

MOVE E SLOWLY

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 050KT

30KT 140NM

FORECAST

24HF 191200UTC 20.3N 159.0E 80NM 70%

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 065KT

48HF 201200UTC 20.2N 154.8E 150NM 70%

MOVE W 09KT

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 070KT

72HF 211200UTC 21.7N 148.7E 220NM 70%

MOVE W 14KT

PRES 955HPA

MXWD 075KT

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yagi has now been upgraded to a typhoon. Here's the latest JMA advisory and track:

Issued at 03:00 UTC 19 Sep 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 190300UTC 20.1N 158.8E GOOD

MOVE W SLOWLY

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 065KT

50KT 55NM

30KT 160NM

FORECAST

24HF 200300UTC 20.1N 155.5E 80NM 70%

MOVE W 07KT

PRES 955HPA

MXWD 075KT

45HF 210000UTC 20.4N 149.5E 150NM 70%

MOVE W 14KT

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 080KT

69HF 220000UTC 24.0N 143.2E 270NM 70%

MOVE WNW 17KT

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 080KT

Even though Yagi's just been upgraded the eye is clearly visible on latest sat image. (Courtesy of NRL Monterey TC Homepage.)

[Typhoon Hunter]

Just about to head out the door so no time for a long post. Just a quick one to say Yagi is undergoing rapid intensification and JMA have her up to 85kts within 24hrs. The last update had her at 65kts. Will post longer update later this afternoon.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Typhoon Yagi has been intensifying steadily and is now very powerful. JMA have it at 90kts and JTWC at 115kts. Here's the latest JMA advisory:

Issued at 06:00 UTC 20 Sep 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 200600UTC 19.6N 154.1E GOOD

MOVE W 14KT

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 090KT

50KT 80NM

30KT 170NM

FORECAST

24HF 210600UTC 20.0N 147.8E 80NM 70%

MOVE W 14KT

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 095KT

48HF 220600UTC 23.2N 142.3E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW 15KT

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 095KT

72HF 230600UTC 27.6N 140.2E 220NM 70%

MOVE NNW 11KT

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 090KT

The latest satellite image is beautiful, courtesy of NRL Monterey TC page:

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yagi has now been classed as a Super typhoon by JTWC and is still forecast to intensify. Iwo Jima is standing in her way and looks to get a direct hit with winds of 140kts gusting to 170kts. Here's the latest JTWC tracking chart:

Here's the latest sat image courtesy of NRL Monterey TC Homepage:

[Typhoon Hunter]

Holy crap, JMA have Yagi up to 110kts which is exceptionaly strong for them. Here's their latest:

Issued at 21:00 UTC 21 Sep 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 212100UTC 23.2N 144.2E GOOD

MOVE NW 16KT

PRES 910HPA

MXWD 110KT

50KT 90NM

30KT 180NM

FORECAST

24HF 222100UTC 27.6N 141.3E 80NM 70%

MOVE NNW 12KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 100KT

45HF 231800UTC 31.6N 143.2E 160NM 70%

MOVE N 12KT

PRES 935HPA

MXWD 090KT

69HF 241800UTC 36.6N 149.0E 290NM 70%

MOVE NE 17KT

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 075KT

Edited September 21, 2006 by Typhoon Hunter

[P.K.]

Exactly, strongest since Chaba in 2004 I think.

[Typhoon Hunter]

A TD has formed just to the east of the Phillipines and if the latest ECMWF run pans out there will be a major typhoon in the South China Sea later this week. I'll post more updates as the situation developes.