Autumn And Winter Lrfs

[The Enforcer]

Looking at SSTs:

Last year:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-050718.gif

This year:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-060716.gif

Notable differences - the emergence of warm anomalies off Newfoundland which were not present at this time last year and GP has already stated what the impact of those would be, were they to persist.

I also see that whereas a year ago there were significant warm anomalies in the North Pacific, these do not exist this year - what affect will this have? Slower Jet in this area?

Herein lies the link with current discussion about the prolonged alignment of flow patterns in the Atlantic - they will have an impact on autumn and winter through the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs).

I think this thread has picked up quote well the potential threat to any cold winter through continued warm southerly flow up the western Atlantic during the summer promoting warm SSTAs and as a result, the winter polar jet being pepped up off Newfoundland.

Another aspect is the upper level weakness in the eastern Atlantic and the mean NE'ly flow there likley to result in cold anomalies during the winter from residual SSTAs - potentially inducing a trough over western Europe and displaced jet flow to the south.

Am I to understand that under the above set of circumstances, we would have a strong jet, but this would be deflected further south than of even larger teapot ilk?

Edited July 18, 2006 by shuggee

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think this thread has picked up quote well the potential threat to any cold winter through continued warm southerly flow up the western Atlantic during the summer promoting warm SSTAs and as a result, the winter polar jet being pepped up off Newfoundland.

Another aspect is the upper level weakness in the eastern Atlantic and the mean NE'ly flow there likley to result in cold anomalies during the winter from residual SSTAs - potentially inducing a trough over western Europe and displaced jet flow to the south.

GP

[SMU]

I also see that whereas a year ago there were significant warm anomalies in the North Pacific, these do not exist this year - what affect will this have? Slower Jet in this area?

Am I to understand that under the above set of circumstances, we would have a strong jet, but this would be deflected further south than of even larger teapot ilk?

ALL opinion are welcome-

As for the pacific SST's they will have a big effect on this Winter- THese SST's play a part in determining the Strength of the Pacific jet-

For information look for the teleconnection called the PDO if you are really interested-

However of the 2 factors contributing to the pacific jet the bigger influence is the QBO- we need it to be Westerly rather than easterly this year to minimise its effects-

S

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ALL opinion are welcome-

As for the pacific SST's they will have a big effect on this Winter- THese SST's play a part in determining the Strength of the Pacific jet-

For information look for the teleconnection called the PDO if you are really interested-

However of the 2 factors contributing to the pacific jet the bigger influence is the QBO- we need it to be Westerly rather than easterly this year to minimise its effects-

S

Steve

Being lazy but I suspect you could answer and have info ready at hand....what do the current Pacific SSTs suggest and what is anticipated QBO value?

BFTP

[The Enforcer]

Squabbling!! This is a damn good debate; two people with really good points, who believe in what they say and are prepared to back themselves with evidence that they see as more convincing from the other!

Sqabbling/bickering is in the eyes of the beholder. An observer's bicker is the protagonists' beliefs. It is so patronising and condescending to call someone else's debate bickering and is a poor assessment of someone else's argument. I just don't hold with it. As long as neither West, nor Steve issues outright insults, let them get on with it. I've enjoyed every cut and thrust and I still am enjoying it. I'm sure many others are!

Do you really think one person can illustrate how to make a point?? Again, it lies in the eye of the beholder. Everybody is different in the way they present things and peoples' varied approaches appeal to different people to oneself. I think we should be much more open in appreciating that.

Nothing wrong with the differing points of view (I haven't been persuaded either way as it happens), but these arguments could have been put across without the contant jibes, for instance:

I have provided repeated facts Steve, you just don't appear to like them.

but distorting facts as you do repetativly here wasts everyones time- especially newer people who may think that what you write has any element of Truth- which sadly it doesnt-

which make the important points they are making harder to follow. What you may not realise is that these two regularly get hot under the collar and at each other's throats - this is not a one off and it's a shame.

And what's more the chief mod thinks so too, bearing in mind he is the author of the new rule:

I'm wondering if anyone who isn't confident in their level of knowledge would be encouraged to post in this thread, or to share their views, or whether they'd be put off by the testoserone-fueled ego bashing that seems to be going on. I've got nothing at all against differences of opinion, but why does it always have to turn personal? Just stop it.

Maybe I am patronising and condescending, expressing oneself clearly in written form only is not an easy skill and perhaps you have it down to a tee. We don't know each other so I'm not going to enter into a protracted debate on the matter, which will bore everyone, be off topic and get us all into more trouble.

As for the pacific SST's they will have a big effect on this Winter- THese SST's play a part in determining the Strength of the Pacific jet-

For information look for the teleconnection called the PDO if you are really interested-

However of the 2 factors contributing to the pacific jet the bigger influence is the QBO- we need it to be Westerly rather than easterly this year to minimise its effects-

Clearly, I need to do more research in this area - I'll have to find out what PDO and QBO stand for, but I have heard of them previously. In short, are positive/negative SST anomalies in the North Pacific good or bad for a wintry winter or can it swing either way depending on the factors you have drawn my attention to? EDIT: Sorry, I think that's the question BFTP has already asked you.

Edited July 18, 2006 by The Enforcer

[Glacier Point]

Steve

Being lazy but I suspect you could answer and have info ready at hand....what do the current Pacific SSTs suggest and what is anticipated QBO value?

BFTP

Current SSTA for the N-PAC is pretty quiet - no bipole of cold water over warm, even the reverse although some activity in the central N-PAC is evident and this fits with the warm anomalies there:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.seasonal.gif

Eastern pacific looks very favourable with cold water convoluting any jet flow.

QBO set for 0 value at the turn of the year I would suggest..

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/qbo.data

PDO - work that one out, not really sure as it looks like a -ve PDO, walks like a -ve PDO and smells like a -ve PDO, only.....

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

GP

[SMU]

Steve

Being lazy but I suspect you could answer and have info ready at hand....what do the current Pacific SSTs suggest and what is anticipated QBO value?

BFTP

It is really a long way away however-

QBO Isnt an SST driven phenomenon its an wind measured at 30Mb- however its heading towards pos ( westerly) which would work in our favour for the Winter- as it would desist from pepping the pacific jet which was partially responsible for those big negative heights over Greenland all winter long - as well as keeping America Very mild for the most part-

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

http://www.bbsr.edu/rpi/public/resedu/qbo.html

THis Winter is going to be a hard one to predict-

CURRENT snow cover at an all time Low- effecting the forcing - as will the ice cover-

SSTA's all over the show- hinting at +ve NAO currently- remember the tripole........

Maunder minimum approaching, NAO phase SHOULD be heading Negative,

QBO heading Westerly-

PDO- no data accuracy for the Winter yet-

AO- Sudden Stratospheric warming last winter assisted in BIG -AO patterns-

& So on & so forth........

As for this comments on the behaviour/Arguing side- The big yin cannot really find fault unless really digging under the microscope- Ive read the latest Net weather rule & there isnt any breach of rules-

The problem is- bottom line you have facts pointed out, Scientifically proven & then re-analysis graphs produced from GP using CDC ( NOAA) data on the one hand - and posts from the other corner with no actual back up- let common sense prevail-

Whether the 'zone of sound thinking in the north' agree or not thats the reality-

There arent many people that are going to challenge- because for some reason some people perhaps think they are not skilled enough to comment-

Its very simple & being over complicated - However keeping this in the context of what we have discussed today & bearing in mind the fact that this is a Winter thread I will cease with comments on Summer until the 5th of August when philip Edens MSLP's arrive for July-

Also then we can produce another re-analysis graph for June, July & June/july Combined-

Lets reserve judgement till then... & of course the final judgement till Sep 06 when the final Stats & CETS are finalised for the Summer...

regards

Steve

[Damien]

A stunningly different outlook from today's NCEP all around.

Summer is still a scorcher, but September is now colder from the north. Likewise October is now a fair bit milder from the south-west. I was cheering at November's solid but still only slightly below average forecast, only to be left shocked like when the £250,000 box is opened after a good run when looking at the December chart. The Atlantic tears into the UK.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif

In the longer term September is still very mild from the south though and October is very cold from the north and north-east. November is similar but with milder air coming in from the Atlantic. These are catastrophic charts so far. This trend continues in December, January, and February, with most of the UK still below average from the right directions though but much milder for this period in Ireland, Western Scotland, and now also Northern Cornwall.

The mild air could still retreat but I don't think that looks likely by recent runs, although February is *I think* colder now than it was on Sunday.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mSeaNorm.gif

[The Enforcer]

A stunningly different outlook from today's NCEP all around.

Rendering all those previously consistent outputs useless. Unless this is an outlier, of course.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

THis Winter is going to be a hard one to predict-

CURRENT snow cover at an all time Low- effecting the forcing - as will the ice cover-

SSTA's all over the show- hinting at +ve NAO currently- remember the tripole........

Maunder minimum approaching, NAO phase SHOULD be heading Negative,

QBO heading Westerly-

PDO- no data accuracy for the Winter yet-

AO- Sudden Stratospheric warming last winter assisted in BIG -AO patterns-

& So on & so forth........

regards

Steve

[Dawlish]

THis Winter is going to be a hard one to predict-

CURRENT snow cover at an all time Low- effecting the forcing - as will the ice cover-

SSTA's all over the show- hinting at +ve NAO currently- remember the tripole........

Maunder minimum approaching, NAO phase SHOULD be heading Negative,

QBO heading Westerly-

PDO- no data accuracy for the Winter yet-

AO- Sudden Stratospheric warming last winter assisted in BIG -AO patterns-

& So on & so forth........

regards

Steve

Steve and GP

Thanks guys I now have better idea of it all.

It would seem this winter is going to be hard to call and very interesting to note that Roger J SMITH has put forward that his early indications are of a highly variable set up for winter. With the mish mash above that looks a good call.

It will be interesting to see if any of the above take hold and provide THE signal ahead.

BFTP. I know that you'd like to think that THE signal exists, but it doesn't. There is no accurate signal of what the winter will be like. The science of long-range forecasting is just no capable of predicting it yet. Maybe in the future, but in 2006......

Paul

PS With the number of forecasts on here, the odds are that someone will call the winter quite closely, but it will not be a signal and it will have been a call based on a well argued guess. I learn from the sources that everyone leads me to, but no matter how well it is written, a guess is still a guess

Edited July 19, 2006 by Dawlish

[Damien]

Rendering all those previously consistent outputs useless. Unless this is an outlier, of course.

Well, such fluctuations have been, in the past, outliers, lasting no more than about 2 days on average. But this is *quite* a big change though, even though a cooler than average winter and now a more favourable autumn pattern are expected for most of us, and remember we have not had access to the previous 2 days (Monday and Tuesday's) data.

Overall that still looks OK to me. I don't see any major cyclogenesis there at all and with Greenland anomalously warm that is favourable. The real issue you must look at IMO is how warm Russia looks...where would the real cold come from???? Still much to happen yet and this winter will be hard to call...

Personally I think events in our neck of the woods - the UK specifically - in autumn are more important than events in Russia, and as I said the current outlook is good though it may yet be an outlier (however I would doubt it - at least for autumn, due to the gradual approach of the whole thing, as well as the fact that it is in the nearer range, as I am sure Dawlish, WIB and others will agree).

Look at winter 2002/03 there was immense cold build up over Scandinavia particularly - reached -60°C - and it did nothing for us here in the UK.

[SMU]

BFTP. I know that you'd like to think that THE signal exists, but it doesn't. There is no accurate signal of what the winter will be like. The science of long-range forecasting is just no capable of predicting it yet. Maybe in the future, but in 2006......

Paul

PS With the number of forecasts on here, the odds are that someone will call the winter quite closely, but it will not be a signal and it will have been a call based on a well argued guess. I learn from the sources that everyone leads me to, but no matter how well it is written, a guess is still a guess

Hi Paul- There are only 3 people on this site who spend a considerable time preparing Winter Forecast-

Ian brown- Whos methods are probably best commented on from himself-

ME & GP- who both use the teleconnection signals & Re-analysis charts to formulate a forecast-

After that there are a few- And I think they would generally Agree- ( the likes of TEITS & BFTP MAYBE WIB included ETC-) these posters will have an informed guess based on what they think will be the big players- Perhaps after this years data & last years forecasts these people will be presenting a more detailed outlook----

If you read the summer forecast I presented back in May I went overboard to give some measureable parameters-

Rainfall, Temps & SLP anomalies- These look to be well on target- ESPECIALLY the significant +VE pressure for central Europe & this is certainly the way forwards-

You are never going to pin significant events down- just Trends effecting the 3 Base paramenters-

Trust me though its not a guess in terms of GUESS THE WEIGHT of the baby type thing-

But an educated guess taking ALL THE DATA into consideration- The only data available at the mo for THIS winter is anomlous flow patterns for the Summer & SSTA's in the atlantic & Pacific/ ENSO-

Best regards

Steve

[Dawlish]

Well, such fluctuations have been, in the past, outliers, lasting no more than about 2 days on average. But this is *quite* a big change though, even though a cooler than average winter and now a more favourable autumn pattern are expected for most of us, and remember we have not had access to the previous 2 days (Monday and Tuesday's) data.

Personally I think events in our neck of the woods - the UK specifically - in autumn are more important than events in Russia, and as I said the current outlook is good though it may yet be an outlier (however I would doubt it - at least for autumn, due to the gradual approach of the whole thing, as well as the fact that it is in the nearer range, as I am sure Dawlish, WIB and others will agree).

Look at winter 2002/03 there was immense cold build up over Scandinavia particularly - reached -60°C - and it did nothing for us here in the UK.

Sorry Damien, please don't be sure I'd agree. The "forecasts" for autumn are just as much of a guess as the winter "forecasts". I rather wish this business of giving credence to these long-range forecasts, by discussing every nuance and change, would be replaced by an examination of how accurate they are. Unfortunately, I know that won't happen, because of the wish to discover a way, or soemone who can, forecast a season in advance.

70% warmer, 20% colder, 10% within 0.25C of the CET mean for any future season. An actual forcast, expecially when it is broken down into smaller units than a season, eg a month, or a fortnight and it isn't possible.

I'm afraid I don't agree with your assessment at all.

Paul

Edited July 19, 2006 by Dawlish

[SMU]

Sorry Damien, please don't be sure I'd agree. The "forecasts" for autumn are just as much of a guess as the winter "forecasts". I rather wish this business of giving credence to these long-range forecasts, by discussing every nuance and change, would be replaced by an examination of how accurate they are. Unfortunately, I know that won't happen, because of the wish to discover a way, or soemone who can, forecast a season in advance.

70% warmer, 20% colder, 10% within 0.25C of the CET mean for any future season. An actual forcast, expecially when it is broken down into smaller units than a season, eg a month, or a fortnight and it isn't possible.

I'm afraid I don't agree with your assessment at all.

Paul

If humans are still 'Struggling' with seasonal forecasts then any computer generated output is very suspect because I doubt there is any Algorithum/Program that can interprete the factors & come up with a decent output-

What I would say is look at the biggest global anomalies in terms of Temps- these have the biggest chance of standing the test of time-

Anything Above or below in the range of 1C ignore-

S

Hi Paul- There are only 3 people on this site who spend a considerable time preparing Winter Forecast-

Ian brown- Whos methods are probably best commented on from himself-

ME & GP- who both use the teleconnection signals & Re-analysis charts to formulate a forecast-

After that there are a few- And I think they would generally Agree- ( the likes of TEITS & BFTP MAYBE WIB included ETC-) these posters will have an informed guess based on what they think will be the big players- Perhaps after this years data & last years forecasts these people will be presenting a more detailed outlook----

If you read the summer forecast I presented back in May I went overboard to give some measureable parameters-

Rainfall, Temps & SLP anomalies- These look to be well on target- ESPECIALLY the significant +VE pressure for central Europe & this is certainly the way forwards-

You are never going to pin significant events down- just Trends effecting the 3 Base paramenters-

Trust me though its not a guess in terms of GUESS THE WEIGHT of the baby type thing-

But an educated guess taking ALL THE DATA into consideration- The only data available at the mo for THIS winter is anomlous flow patterns for the Summer & SSTA's in the atlantic & Pacific/ ENSO-

Edited July 19, 2006 by Steve Murr

[Glacier Point]

something of a disservice to Summer Blizzard, Snowman-2006 and Weatherforecaster ?

[SMU]

something of a disservice to Summer Blizzard, Snowman-2006 and Weatherforecaster ?

yes true that post looks worded wrong It wasnt meant to patronise anyone---although I think people know what I meant : re last years forecast- perhaps I should have added those & the ever speculative SP-

We will all be back come december having the same conversations as last year-

S

Edited July 19, 2006 by Steve Murr

[Paul]

If humans are still 'Struggling' with seasonal forecasts then any computer generated output is very suspect because I doubt there is any Algorithum/Program that can interprete the factors & come up with a decent output-

Don't often post into these threads - but that's a very important point. Computer based output still has to be programmed by human hand, so if there isn't a theory that works than can be programmed into the software, then no matter how powerful the supercomputer running the model the results will still be iffy.

I keep looking at the CFS system from the NCEP with a view to putting on the site, I may do soon just for interest for people - but as much as I'd like it to be the definitive answer to LRF'ing, nothing out there is right now.

[SMU]

There are a few other longer term posters that Steve Murr doesn't include who also read some of the 'informed experts' posts and used this as well as other observations (anecdotal and general weather knowledge aside from particular scientific technical knowledge) to make predictions. Whoever has made these predictions, at whatever level, LRF's remain remain an area of forecasting where the greatest challenge to skill vs accuracy remains

Tamara

Cheers Paul-.......

How could I have ever forgot the Hastings massive..... As ever more names pop up at the bottom It kick starts the memory-

Appologies to all-

This years Winter forecasts will be generate huge speculation....

S

Edited July 19, 2006 by Steve Murr

[Dawlish]

If humans are still 'Struggling' with seasonal forecasts then any computer generated output is very suspect because I doubt there is any Algorithum/Program that can interprete the factors & come up with a decent output-

What I would say is look at the biggest global anomalies in terms of Temps- these have the biggest chance of standing the test of time-

Anything Above or below in the range of 1C ignore-

S

The forecasts read terrifically well Steve. I read every one and the meteorological knowledge that is displayed in them does you all great credit.

It doesn't, however, change my mind one jot that any of the summer/spring perameters that you all think are going to give you a statistically relevant result over a long period of time will actually do that. Are any, or all of you saying that you are actually getting better results than the Met Office with their NAO forecast (66% with a fairly weak correlation, over 30-odd years) and that your dataset is long enough to provide any kind of result which could be tested for significance?? If you are not and the results are not significant to, at least, the 95% confidence level, then your results could have occurred by chance and, effectively, you are doing no better than guessing.

I mean no slur by that, really, I don't, but having been brought up with statistics - and risk and odds really do explain, if not actually control our lives - then I won't accept anything that is not statistically viable at those confidence levels. That is why I use the term "guess" and I will continue to do so. I use it correctly; anything that cannot be proven to happen to at least a 95% confidence level (ie it will probably happen 19 times out of 20), in statistics is classed as being possibly generated randomly ie it is no better than sticking a pin in a board! Many would only accept the 99% confidence level ie it would probably happen, by chance, only one time in 100. I'd find it hard to believe your forecasts could stand up to that kind of scrutiny, much as I enjoy them!

Paul

Edited July 19, 2006 by Dawlish

[ribster]

Maybe thinking 'outside of the box' every once in a while might help you

[The Enforcer]

As ever more names pop up at the bottom It kick starts the memory-

RJS? What about Ken Ring?

Edited July 19, 2006 by The Enforcer

[SMU]

The forecasts read terrifically well Steve. I read every one and the meteorological knowledge that is displayed in them does you all great credit.

It doesn't, however, change my mind one jot that any of the summer/spring perameters that you all think are going to give you a statistically relevant result over a long period of time will actually do that. Are any, or all of you saying that you are actually getting better results than the Met Office with their NAO forecast (66% with a fairly weak correlation, over 30-odd years) and that your dataset is long enough to provide any kind of result which could be tested for significance?? If you are not and the results are not significant to, at least, the 95% confidence level, then your results could have occurred by chance and, effectively, you are doing no better than guessing.

I mean no slur by that, really, I don't, but having been brought up with statistics - and risk and odds really do explain, if not actually control our lives - then I won't accept anything that is not statistically viable at those confidence levels. That is why I use the term "guess" and I will continue to do so. I use it correctly; anything that cannot be proven to happen to at least a 95% confidence level (ie it will probably happen 19 times out of 20), in statistics is classed as being possibly generated randomly ie it is no better than sticking a pin in a board! Many would only accept the 99% confidence level ie it would probably happen, by chance, only one time in 100. I'd find it hard to believe your forecasts could stand up to that kind of scrutiny, much as I enjoy them!

Paul

Hi Paul-

I know theres no slur there...

However ALL the Teleconnection tablets date back to the 50's... its just recently say the last 5 years that they have been pieced together-

The advancements in this feild have taken seemingly leaps & bounds forwards stateside but remained rather static over here-

In terms of the MET office you CANNOT just build a Winter forecast around the NAO- I think this is why this remains as their secondary Forecast rather than Primary-

Again its the global picture & trying to pinpoint the zones of blocking at they ALL teleconnect to each other-

However rather than trying to convince- We need to see the results of the summer forecasts & then see what drops out of that- Although using 3 parameters to measure each time rather than the 2 doesnt eliminate chance- just reduces it-

you will never get to 95% on an Lrf- so Maybe it will always be a guess from your perspective..- 60/70 % maybe.....

Regards

Steve

Edited July 19, 2006 by Steve Murr

[Dawlish]

Hi Paul-

I know theres no slur there...

However ALL the Teleconnection tablets date back to the 50's... its just recently say the last 5 years that they have been pieced together-

The advancements in this feild have taken seemingly leaps & bounds forwards stateside but remained rather static over here-

In terms of the MET office you CANNOT just build a Winter forecast around the NAO- I think this is why this remains as their secondary Forecast rather than Primary-

Again its the global picture & trying to pinpoint the zones of blocking at they ALL teleconnect to each other-

However rather than trying to convince- We need to see the results of the summer forecasts & then see what drops out of that- Although using 3 parameters to measure each time rather than the 2 doesnt eliminate chance- just reduces it-

Regards

Steve

Sounds good Steve. I'm very open minded on this, but the proof of the pudding will be in the stats!

Paul

PS Ribster, I have no idea what you are whistling about. You have obviously been on too many courses!

[SMU]

RJS? What about Ken Ring?

yes... its all coming back......

S