Tropical storm Beryl

[kold weather]

Well a new thread for a new system that has formed. Its from Invest 97L and this system has become very impressive voernight with some strong convection bursting up overnight. It appeared according to sat loops that this system has an established LLC as wel lnow and with some strong convection already it certainly is a 35mph TD. Recon is gonig to investigate this system today and it may well be the case that it wil lfind Beryl as well in that strong convection. Anyway the season is finally awakening as well. Seeing it on the sat imagery I must admit it does look a little more sub-tropical in nature then purely tropical, though SSt's in the area are high enough to suggest it may be fully tropical the linkage to the front to its NE still seems weakly evident.

Pressure is at 1011mbs and winds upto 30kts, any upgrade in sat imagery or any recon report later today could well be enough to upgrade it to our next TS. Shear is light and SST's, while not amazing are high enough to support even a minimal category-1 hurricane I suspect and i do note that hurricane Alex formed in the exact same area in 2004. It's in the gulf stream as well so upwelling doesn't appear to be any problem and shear is light, I think i'll call for a 60mph TS at max, same as Alberto but with the possiblty og a hurricane IF it can get its act on as its got a great outflow on its northern side (Just loo kat the moisture streaming north-wards!)

Steering currents suggests its gonig to be one of those 50/50 landfall attempts, if the trough digs down faster then expected to its north then it'll turn away from the east coast and a possible landfall site however if the trough is about what is expected or even slower then a possible landfalling Ts/hurricane is possible on the outer banks, The set-up is very similar to hurricane Alex ad that went on to become a major. Anyway heres what the NHC says, without recon to give accurate readings and fixes on the center it'll be very hard to forecast.

[kold weather]

Right a needed update, the NHC *seem* to have likely upgraded the system based on new recon data and overall structure on sat imagery

507

WHXX01 KWBC 181911

CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM TWO (AL022006) ON 20060718 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

060718 1800 060719 0600 060719 1800 060720 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 32.9N 73.3W 33.6N 73.9W 34.6N 74.4W 35.7N 74.6W

BAMM 32.9N 73.3W 33.6N 74.0W 34.6N 74.5W 35.4N 74.7W

A98E 32.9N 73.3W 34.1N 73.2W 35.5N 72.6W 36.6N 71.4W

LBAR 32.9N 73.3W 33.9N 73.4W 35.4N 73.4W 37.0N 72.8W

SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 50KTS

DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

060720 1800 060721 1800 060722 1800 060723 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 36.4N 74.7W 38.3N 72.3W 40.9N 61.3W 39.6N 47.9W

BAMM 36.4N 74.8W 38.9N 71.0W 42.0N 58.9W 41.8N 43.2W

A98E 37.8N 69.5W 40.7N 63.1W 43.2N 50.6W 39.1N 35.9W

LBAR 38.9N 71.7W 43.3N 65.1W 47.4N 52.0W .0N .0W

SHIP 50KTS 50KTS 44KTS 34KTS

DSHP 50KTS 50KTS 44KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 32.9N LONCUR = 73.3W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

LATM12 = 31.7N LONM12 = 73.4W DIRM12 = 19DEG SPDM12 = 6KT

LATM24 = 31.1N LONM24 = 74.4W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

35kts=Beryl. Pressure also down a little according to recon which has just gotten in there recently and measured 1008mbs. models getting upto an impressive 50kts which is a moderatly strong tropical storm hoqwever i still have a feeling that this could get stronger then exopected just like hurricane Alex did.

also while I'm here although convection has weakened a little because of mid-day heating it has gotten a much better structure, this one needs to be watched because it could make impact as a minimal hurricane i suspect given some very impressive outflow to its north evident by its extension which is still linked to a jet streak. Also worth noting while water temps are marginal in nature the shear is very low indeed as the jet sttream pluses to the north.

So looking likely we've got our second TS...however I won't change the thread title till we've got offical word from the national hurricane center, none of this is 100% offical yet but its looking quite possible that it will be soon.

[crimsone]

That took its time! Better late than never though.

Goig by that current track forcst thoug, and knowing that the chances of it reaching our shores are unknown, I wonder what effect any remnants of this one could possible have if it combined with our current heat. lol

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

What a difference a year makes. This time last year we'd had three Hurricanes and were already on to Tropical Storm Franklin.

td2 looks in good shape on the water vapour floater. It's got a good arm of moisture going north from the outflow. There's a noticable core of moisture, on the image shown by spots of orange. Without shear and being close to the gulf stream it should develop fast and sustain itself unless it gets too close to the coast. In which case it might not do more than Cat 1 if it gets past a TS.

[Gray-Wolf]

Isn't there a large, positive SST anomaly off to the North of it (Td2) ? I wonder what the SST's are up to in the centre of that there anomaly (over 27c?) and whether they could 'pep up' any residual storm later on (as it heads off across the pond in our direction)

Td2 also seems to have a hanger on to the south of it , I wonder how quickly that will be absorbed by the depression? Sooo many questions!! guess I'll just sit back and see......

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

That large anomaly probably increases the danger to the US north east. This SST map shows 27 degrees going much closer to New York than to the Azores and the track is still basically going anywhere.

[parmenides3]

This from NOAA:

000

WTNT32 KNHC 182046

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006

500 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH

CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK

BEACH LIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 180

MILES...290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. A SLOW TURN

TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR

WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND

THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR

TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...33.3 N...73.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[Kain]

Well there you go, our 2nd storm..

Perhaps this season is just a late starter?

It's looking pretty good on the sat..

Kain

[Aussie Big Ben]

000

WTNT42 KNHC 190233

TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006

1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

LAST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DVORAK SATELLITE

ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BERYL IS NOT CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING. THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED

TO A CURVED BAND MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IN FACT...IT

SEEMS THAT THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL ZONE.

INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE

IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER

COOLER WATER AND THE SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE. BERYL SHOULD BEGIN

TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS OR LESS.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OF 350 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AROUND

THE WEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN

GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN

BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SINCE

MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURN BERYL TO THE

NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...I AM

KEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL A DEFINITIVE TREND AWAY FROM

COAST BEGINS. THIS TREND COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 34.1N 73.6W 35 KT

12HR VT 19/1200Z 35.0N 73.7W 40 KT

24HR VT 20/0000Z 36.0N 73.6W 45 KT

36HR VT 20/1200Z 37.5N 73.0W 50 KT

48HR VT 21/0000Z 39.5N 71.5W 50 KT

72HR VT 22/0000Z 42.0N 67.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 23/0000Z 43.0N 61.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 24/0000Z 44.5N 56.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[SnowBear]

About time!

Was getting withdrawal symptoms lol

I tend to think Beryl could possibly make more of an impact on our weather rather than the US coast, (help break the blocking over the UK).

But, as we have seen many times before, always expect the unexpected and if any landfall is made in the US my feeling is it will be briefly in the CT/MA area as a coast skimmer.

[kold weather]

A lot depends on the strength of the system. The weaker it stays the more westward its gonig to get because the steering currents are slightly different at lower levels, if it gets stronger then it should find it easier to connect with the trough which would send it NE. I tend to think that we'll see it contniue to head NNW/N over the next 24hrs then eventually start to make the turn.

Recon from this morning found 45kt winds aloft which suggests a windspeed of about 40mph which is exactly waht the NHC has got as well. Beryl seems to be having a little bit of a hard time retaining its convection already, though shear appears to be low according to models there is a chance its higher then the models want to make out and hence why the center has become somewhat exposed over the alst few hours, its a touch like Alberto in that regards. Strongest winds will certainly be found in the NE quadrant in this system as the main deep convection is over the northern and eastern section, so its quite lop-sided at the moment. Mind yhou these sort sof weak TS tend to be at least a little lop-sided. Still the center is very exposed depsite the odd weak burst of convection in the center its having ahrd time and if it doesn't cover that center up soon then it'll have a hard time getting any strong then it is right now but if it does get the center covered then 60-75mph is still very possible however it probably only has another 48-72hrs to do this as waters going to cooling quite reaidly.

[WhiteFox]

Well there you go, our 2nd storm..

Perhaps this season is just a late starter?

Kain

Not really, just a bit more normal than last year! Some stats I heard yesterday: 98% of major hurricanes form after July 17th. 88% of storms form after July 17th. Last year was the only year in the past 8 (or 10, can't remember!) where more than two storms formed before July 17th. Last year was exceptional!

[kold weather]

Indeed Whitefox, this year so far has been closer to average then 2005, mind you worth remembering at this point in 2004 we still hadn't evn had our first tropical depression and that year ended up stil some way above average.

Anyway Recon has found some fairly high winds in the convection on its north-eastern side with peak flight level winds at 52kts which roughly equates to about 40kts at the surface which is what the NHc have used in the new advisory. So now Beryl is a 45mph tropical storm. Intrestingly enough a slight change in its structure has occure dover the last few hours with a fairly decent burst of convection occuring on its SW side now and covering the southern half of the center, which may well suggest that shear has slightly lessened over the last few hours. If the convective burst can keep developing then we could see Beryl eventually get upto the 60mph mark but that shear will have to lay off for a while yet but its got a decent outflow still present.

[WhiteFox]

Anyway Recon has found some fairly high winds in the convection on its north-eastern side with peak flight level winds at 52kts which roughly equates to about 40kts at the surface which is what the NHc have used in the new advisory. So now Beryl is a 45mph tropical storm. Intrestingly enough a slight change in its structure has occure dover the last few hours with a fairly decent burst of convection occuring on its SW side now and covering the southern half of the center, which may well suggest that shear has slightly lessened over the last few hours. If the convective burst can keep developing then we could see Beryl eventually get upto the 60mph mark but that shear will have to lay off for a while yet but its got a decent outflow still present.

Without wishing to spoil weather-watchers' interest, I'm hoping this system either doesn't form or steers well clear of New York; I have to fly into LaGuardia on Friday and the delays will be horrendous if there is heavy rain and high winds!

[kold weather]

Hmm, depends on how fast this system moves out of the way, what may happen is the plane may have to take a slightly different route around Beryl if it doesn't move too fast however I suspect it'll be north of New-york by then.

System is looking very good at the moment with some strong convection occuring readily though tops are still fairly shallow, as you would come top expect with systems that form from cold-cored Lp's. Still there is some good coverage of the center now and so I expect the next recon to find winds have risen by anotyher 5mph upto 50mph. Two factors have helped the system reently. Shear has breifly layed off the system though there is another jet streak that may pass close. Also it seems to have moved over the area of highest heat content at that latitude which is helping to strengthen the convection over the center.

(update- 6.20pm, 12z models have swang the systems track a little west which brings Long Island into play as well for some tropical winds.)

[kold weather]

Beryl actually is starting to look pretty impressive now on the sat loops, visable shows that while the convection is still slightly lop-sided on tis northern side there is still some decent convective bursts occuring over the center which is allowing the system to organise readily at the moment. Shear is still pretty light as evident by the system, outflow is very good indeed and its presently travelling over the gulf stream, which has some pretty decent heat content there.

Recon has recently confirmed the system has gotten a good deal stronger sinc eit last went in with winds upto 49kts being reported via dropsondes which suggests the system may well now be a strong TS. NHC has upped the winds from 40kts to 50kts on thier latest model runs so thats about where it should be for tonights run.

What happens after this, well it should continue moving north-wards and eentually head NNe and then turn NE. however a new set-up has been introduced by the GFDL which suggests it may not even take the turn at all and instead head straight through long island. The reason seemingly because GFDL makes Beryl stronger then the other models and infact take it breifly upto hurricane status with 65kt winds and therefore it come sunder slightly different steering currents and the GFDL suggests that the trough wouldn't actually be able to reach it and leaves New-york getting hit by a TS.

In terms of strength, hard one to call because the jet streak is still pushing eastwards and I'm not sure it'll get hit by it or not, its hard to tell without having some really high resolution stuff, however even if shear doesn't do anything once it moves off the gulf stream in the next 12-18hrs it should weaken quite readily and convection should become limited to the north semi-circle, something which usually always happens with tropical cyclones that go extra-tropical in the N.Hemisphere.

Still this one needs to be watched, its got a shot at hurricane status if it keeps that deep convection.

[Gray-Wolf]

.

What happens after this, well it should continue moving north-wards and eventually head NNe and then turn NE. however a new set-up has been introduced by the GFDL which suggests it may not even take the turn at all and instead head straight through long island. The reason seemingly because GFDL makes Beryl stronger then the other models and in fact take it briefly upto hurricane status with 65kt winds and therefore it come sunder slightly different steering currents and the GFDL suggests that the trough wouldn't actually be able to reach it and leaves New-York getting hit by a TS.

In terms of strength, hard one to call because the jet streak is still pushing eastwards and I'm not sure it'll get hit by it or not, its hard to tell without having some really high resolution stuff, however even if shear doesn't do anything once it moves off the gulf stream in the next 12-hrs it should weaken quite readily and convection should become limited to the north semi-circle, something which usually always happens with tropical cyclones that go extra-tropical in the N.Hemisphere.

Still this one needs to be watched, its got a shot at hurricane status if it keeps that deep convection.

I still have to ponder whether that warm sst anomaly will act like last years 'Cuban Loop' and pep up Beryl (or turn her into a 'hybrid' like we had our side of the pond last year) allowing her a little more 'freedom' in her wanderings and maybe giving a Big Apple a 'blow over' (Bush and Co. could do with something to take their minds off the middle east right now!!) Maybe that is part of what the GDFL picked up on.

[kold weather]

Those anomalies are certainly warm aren't they compared to average. They probably won't make a huge difference as the SSt's tend to fall away quite sharply once the systems get off the gulf stream, those warm waters may allow it to get another 50-100 miles further north then normal but of cours eif it makes landfall that may make the difference between a 45mph extra-tropical system and a 65mph tropical system. by the way heres confirmation on the models, max winds so far are stil lat 50kts:

982

WHXX01 KWBC 191854

CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM BERYL (AL022006) ON 20060719 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

060719 1800 060720 0600 060720 1800 060721 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 35.9N 73.5W 37.2N 73.4W 38.3N 72.9W 39.3N 71.2W

BAMM 35.9N 73.5W 36.9N 73.8W 38.1N 73.8W 39.6N 72.4W

A98E 35.9N 73.5W 37.3N 73.0W 38.6N 71.6W 40.1N 69.2W

LBAR 35.9N 73.5W 37.2N 73.1W 38.8N 72.4W 40.6N 70.5W

SHIP 50KTS 54KTS 53KTS 51KTS

DSHP 50KTS 54KTS 53KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

060721 1800 060722 1800 060723 1800 060724 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 40.9N 67.7W 43.4N 56.0W 40.2N 48.2W 35.6N 49.3W

BAMM 41.7N 69.7W 46.8N 59.7W 49.4N 47.3W 47.9N 36.1W

A98E 42.2N 64.9W 45.4N 53.7W 43.3N 40.4W 36.9N 31.6W

LBAR 43.1N 66.7W 46.5N 54.0W 42.9N 41.9W .0N .0W

SHIP 49KTS 45KTS 35KTS 22KTS

DSHP 49KTS 45KTS 35KTS 22KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 35.9N LONCUR = 73.5W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

LATM12 = 34.5N LONM12 = 73.7W DIRM12 = 357DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 33.0N LONM24 = 73.3W

WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 35KT

CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 85NM RD34SE = 85NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 40NM

So Beryl is now a 60mph tropical storm (NHC use 60mph for 50kts) I won't post anymore then this but i'll say one thing, its got a shot at hurricane status, however its stil lrunning out of time, once it leaves the gulf stream its time is limited but as long as it stays on the gulf, there is a chance for it to reach hurricane status. more then likely it'll max out at 60-70mph. I'd be worried if this system were to make landfall where GFDL is, while the system will be weakening I'm sure rainfall amounts could cause problems.

[dee88]

Tropical Storm Beryl has formed off the US coast in the Atlantic ocean and is expected to head up past New England, where there is an unusual mass of warm ocean water off the coast of Maine at this time, and then move on to Southern Canada.

Unless Beryl changes its route, the storm will pass directly over the warm water mass, which will strengthen its force, possibly turning it into a hurricane, especially if it lingers in the area. Beryl could eventually travel to Europe, where it could also land as a hurricane.

Right now it looks like Tropical Storm Beryl, presently off the US Atlantic Coast, will move up the coast and then out to sea off Newfoundland.

But Unknowncountry.com is saying that there's a new factor present that just might change things, making this storm larger and longer-lived than anybody now expects.

This has to do with the fact that over the weekend it will cross an unprecedented area of warm water off the New England coast--with possible consequences that has some scientists worried.

A tropical storm should never have formed off the Carolina coast, let alone strengthened as it moved north into cooler waters.But that's what has happened, and it could be, if the storm gets large enough, it's still be intact when it reaches Europe.

Could IRELAND experience a hurricane? In this world of rapid climate change, we shall see...

Edited July 19, 2006 by dee88

[Dawlish]

Tropical Storm Beryl has formed off the US coast in the Atlantic ocean and is expected to head up past New England, where there is an unusual mass of warm ocean water off the coast of Maine at this time, and then move on to Southern Canada.

Unless Beryl changes its route, the storm will pass directly over the warm water mass, which will strengthen its force, possibly turning it into a hurricane, especially if it lingers in the area. Beryl could eventually travel to Europe, where it could also land as a hurricane.

Right now it looks like Tropical Storm Beryl, presently off the US Atlantic Coast, will move up the coast and then out to sea off Newfoundland.

But Unknowncountry.com is saying that there's a new factor present that just might change things, making this storm larger and longer-lived than anybody now expects.

This has to do with the fact that over the weekend it will cross an unprecedented area of warm water off the New England coast--with possible consequences that has some scientists worried.

A tropical storm should never have formed off the Carolina coast, let alone strengthened as it moved north into cooler waters.But that's what has happened, and it could be, if the storm gets large enough, it's still be intact when it reaches Europe.

Could IRELAND experience a hurricane? In this world of rapid climate change, we shall see...

Interesting, but that is one hell of a long shot!

Paul

[Gray-Wolf]

I feel happily re-assured that I'm not the only Quack out here if others have voiced concerns over the SST anomaly of the Eastern seaboard. The 'Hybrids' of last year didn't quite seem to be fully explained (as to which or what they were) so I will await Beryls wanderings with interest!

[kold weather]

They key with those hybrids is those upper level atmopsheric temps Gray-Wolf, the SSTA at the time over where they formed where only slightly above average. Vince was a little odd given where it formed and wa ssomewhat a freak however the others make some sense, considering last year shear was low pretty much across much of the Atlantic at times its no wonder that places where systems normally died they would be able to survive.

Also as I said in another thread, the upper atmopsheric temps were colder then normal at the same time over that area of the Atlantic through November and into December. In simple terms you need temps of 26-27C because upper atmopsheric temps aren't as cold over tropics, however because they formed further north then you'd expect they can get away with lower SST's because the upper atmopshere is also colder so really there is no net difference.

Anyway back onto Beryl, its now starting to move off the backend of the gulf stream and into cooler waters. It's still holding up okay however right now and recon has still found wind speeds upto 50kts at the surface. The system should turn extra-tropical over the within the next 48hrs as it pushes into even cooler waters, it won't be an instant thing but its fronts should start to form eventually. Center may well become exposed soon if the convection keeps decreasing on the system like it is presently, esp on the southern side as it turns extra-tropical but at the moment its keeping its oconvection on that side quite nicely and I dare say its still a 60mph as of now. However what is occurin looking at the IR loops is the convection is shrinking in its overlal size, the reason for this is because SSTs are decreasing unde rit has no way of holding onto the convection and so it shrinks as a response. Eventually shear should start to impact it a little more but thats still a good 12-24hrs at least and may not inflict it till its already getting extra-tropical features. All information shows though that Beryl is still a 60mph tropical storm and SSt's are still warm enough to support that strength for a little while lnoger yet, though as ever these systems are hard to forecast much beyond 6-12hrs for strength due to how complex they are!

By the way, there is not a chance in hell of Beryl surviving to make landfall here. Yes the SST's are some way above average in the area in question however you've got to remember after the gulf stream temps rapidly decrease and temps on average over the sorts of latitude it needs to be to reach us is in the 12-15C range, any tropical system will die for sure, though you could get an extra-tropical system from the stronger ones, but Beryl certainly isn't one of those to be fair and will likely be absorbed by another low moving up from the USA over the next 48hrs.

By the way, must be added landflal is looking increasingly possible as Beryl is still west of its forecast points so there is a higher chance of it making landfall near somewhere like Cape cod unless it feels the trough quicker then is currently expected then it'll likely hit as a moderate tropical storm and unless the shear and cooler waters effect it voer the next 12hrs could be intresting to see its impacts tohugh it should be much more then a 50-55mph TS I reckon.

[Gray-Wolf]

The advisory has the GFS now pushing her (Beryl) further west and (along with GDFL) making landfall in New England. Didn't New England suffer pretty badly with flooding last year due to tropical remnants drifting over it?

EDIT I wouldn't expect the remnants of Beryl to make the trip across the pond but the 'downstream' effects of its time with us may well impact upon our current LRF's dontcha' think?

Edited July 20, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[kold weather]

Indeed its track is looking like it'll take it onto Long Islands. Where it goes after that I'm not to sure as the steering currents aloft after changing now as the trough gets clsoer from the west as WV loops shows, look for it to start turning more to the NNE/NE in the next 6-12hrs as it latches onto Beryl. The key question is will it be quick enough to re-curve Beryl away from land and the answer now is looking quite possibly like no, it mkay well just miss long Islands though those bands will hit for sure then it's got a fair chance of hitting cape Cod region which may take a direct hit by the Beryl given how it doesn't appear to be turning quite fast enough to avoid that area and TS gusts in the rainbands will get this area even if the system does take a easterly wobble away from land. It's going to be quite close but I think it may just reach eastern parts and get Cape Cod.

Also just a word about the strength. It's intresting to note that Beryl's sturcture has changed somewhat and has actually improved with a great circulation and an eye like feature, though its worth remembering its not a true eye because it hasn't emerged from the CDO, rather the CDO has died away to outside the center of circulation. However also worth remembering that now its moving off the culf stream its energy that it can get is also greatly reduced, I talked about that in the last post so I won't re-tread it but lower heat content, less convection, its as simple as that and you can see by the way Beryl is plusing down in terms of cold cloud hieghts. So it is still holding on to those higher winds at the moment and pressure should be dropping now down to sub-1000mbs soon thanks to that eye like feature forms before it turns extra-tropical.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Beryl could eventually travel to Europe, where it could also land as a hurricane.

Sorry could not resist ... not a hope, not a chance!! I would be the first to get excited if it did mind!