Hurricane Daniel

[Aussie Big Ben]

Just noticed (I'm a bit slow) that the Eastern Pacific is active again. Hurricane Daniel appear to be fairly strong and he's the type I like as he won't make landfall and destroy peoples homes and lives.

If I am mistaken and there is already a thread on this I apologise and can someone point me to it :-)

This from www.nhc.noaa.gov

000

WTPZ45 KNHC 190227

TCDEP5

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006

800 PM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006

THE HURRICANE IS CONTINUING ITS INTENSIFICATION WITH TIGHTLY-WOUND

BANDS OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER AND AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW

PATTERN. AFTER A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS AGO...A SMALL

EYE IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT IN BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK

CLASSIFICATIONS OF 65 KT FROM SAB/TAFB AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS

OF 72 KT.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL

ANTICYCLONE NEAR DANIEL PROVIDING A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE

NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE SSTS ARE WARM AND SLIGHTLY

ABOVE AVERAGE. ALL SIGNS POINT TO AT LEAST A STEADY INTENSIFICATION

FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE SSTS BEGIN TO COOL. THEREAFTER...

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF STEADY/SLIGHTLY DECREASINGLY SSTS AND

LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR MIGHT FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN

ANNULAR-TYPE HURRICANE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW DANIEL TO STAY

STRONGER FOR A LONGER AMOUNT OF TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY

FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE WHICH KEEP

DANIEL AS A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DANIEL IS MOVING BASICALLY DUE WEST...ABOUT 270/10. LITTLE CHANGE

WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS AS MODEL

GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THEREAFTER...THE GFS AND ITS

ENSEMBLES DIVERGE A LITTLE BY MOVING DANIEL ON A MORE

WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH

ALONG ABOUT 130W. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/ECMWF CLUSTER SHOWS LESS OF A

TROUGH...KEEPING THE HURRICANE ON A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN THE

GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED A LITTLE

SOUTH OF PREVIOUS...ALONG THE LINES OF THE ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE

MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 11.9N 118.4W 70 KT

12HR VT 19/1200Z 12.0N 119.9W 80 KT

24HR VT 20/0000Z 12.2N 121.5W 90 KT

36HR VT 20/1200Z 12.6N 123.3W 100 KT

48HR VT 21/0000Z 13.0N 125.0W 100 KT

72HR VT 22/0000Z 13.7N 128.5W 100 KT

96HR VT 23/0000Z 14.5N 132.0W 85 KT

120HR VT 24/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W 70 KT

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[summer blizzard]

000

WTPZ45 KNHC 200841

TCDEP5

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006

200 AM PDT THU JUL 20 2006

SHORT-WAVE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS AN

EXCELLENT SSMIS OVERPASS FROM AROUND 0400 UTC...INDICATE DANIEL'S

EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS NOW COMPLETE. CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB...90 KT FROM SAB...AND 102 KT FROM

THE AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES. BASED UPON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL

INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 100 KT AND DANIEL IS NOW A MAJOR

HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...280/8.

DANIEL IS FINALLY GAINING A BIT OF LATITUDE WHILE STEERED BY A

LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME

MORE CLUSTERED IN THE LATTER PERIODS AS OPPOSED TO THE PREVIOUS

CYCLE...WITH THE SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION

THROUGH FIVE DAYS. SINCE THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED IN THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION.

THE CHALLENGE WITH DANIEL LIES IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. BOTH THE

SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CAPS THE HURRICANE AT 100 KT.

HOWEVER DUE TO THE RECENT COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT

CYCLE...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KT IS FORECAST.

ADDITIONALLY...A WARM OCEAN AND A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ARE

ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN

DANIEL AS A STRONG HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...COOLER SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN

THE CYCLONE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 12.2N 121.9W 100 KT

12HR VT 20/1800Z 12.4N 123.1W 110 KT

24HR VT 21/0600Z 13.0N 124.6W 115 KT

36HR VT 21/1800Z 13.5N 126.3W 110 KT

48HR VT 22/0600Z 14.0N 128.0W 100 KT

72HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 131.0W 80 KT

96HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 134.0W 65 KT

120HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 137.0W 55 KT

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

Hurricane Daniel has finished an eyewall replacement cycle and is now expected to become a strong category 3 hurricane, i would not rule out a category 4.

I repeat, HURRICANE DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR CATEGORY 3/4 HURRICANE IN AROUND 24 HOURS.

[Paranoid]

Apparently Daniel may be an Annular Hurricane. As for strength, Category 4 looks likely. Daniel already has 125mph winds, just a little more strengthening and it could make it.

[summer blizzard]

000

WTPZ45 KNHC 202032

TCDEP5

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006

200 PM PDT THU JUL 20 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIEL HAS BECOME A

VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE. A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS

DETECTED A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH A 25-30 NM WIDE EYE.

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT

AND WARMED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO

INCREASE TO 115 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY

HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KT...MAKING DANIEL A POWERFUL CATEGORY

FOUR HURRICANE.

BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DANIEL

SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY VERY SOON. THE OFFICIAL

WIND SPEED FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS.

IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN THAN

GUIDANCE INDICATES GIVEN ITS ANNULAR APPEARANCE. AFTER 48 HOURS...

DANIEL WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE...AS SHEAR IS FORECAST

TO INCREASE AND THE SSTS GRADUALLY COOL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8. MODEL GUIDANCE IS

TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

THEREAFTER...SOME SPREAD IS SEEN IN THE TRACK MODELS AS THE GFDL

CONTINUES TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET...

NOGAPS...AND GFS CONTINUE DANIEL ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.

THE CURRENT TRACK MAINTAINS THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AND IS

AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

AN EXCELLENT AND VERY IMPRESSIVE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1356 UTC HELPED

TO DEFINE THE WIND RADII FOR THIS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 12.7N 123.4W 115 KT

12HR VT 21/0600Z 13.1N 124.6W 120 KT

24HR VT 21/1800Z 13.6N 126.1W 110 KT

36HR VT 22/0600Z 14.1N 127.9W 100 KT

48HR VT 22/1800Z 14.6N 129.6W 85 KT

72HR VT 23/1800Z 15.5N 133.0W 65 KT

96HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W 55 KT

120HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W 45 KT

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Dennis is now expected to peak in twelve hours with sustianed winds of 140mph.

[summer blizzard]

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006

800 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006

DANIEL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY. THE EYE HAS EXPANDED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW

ABOUT 30-35 NM IN DIAMETER. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL

AGENCIES REMAIN 115 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR

THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT DANIEL WILL

SOON BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT

FORECAST AS MUCH NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND

THE HURRICANE MAY BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS

THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREAFTER... DANIEL WILL BE ENCOUNTERING

COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY.

AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DANIEL IS MOVING SLIGHTLY

FASTER AND WESTWARD THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A LONGER 12-18 HOUR

AVERAGE MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/10. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS

CLUSTERED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING DURING THE NEXT 3

HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WEAKEN

THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE

HURRICANE. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE CYCLONE AND TURN IT MORE

NORTHWESTWARD. THE NOGAPS IS MUCH FASTER THAN ALL THE OTHER

GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 13.4N 126.3W 115 KT

12HR VT 22/0000Z 13.7N 127.7W 110 KT

24HR VT 22/1200Z 14.2N 129.5W 100 KT

36HR VT 23/0000Z 14.6N 131.3W 85 KT

48HR VT 23/1200Z 15.1N 133.1W 75 KT

72HR VT 24/1200Z 16.0N 136.0W 60 KT

96HR VT 25/1200Z 17.5N 138.0W 45 KT

120HR VT 26/1200Z 19.0N 139.5W 35 KT

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

NNNN

It looks like Hurricane Daniel has peaked as a strong category 3 hurricane and is expected to weaken however if it can get another pulse of deep convection over the next 24 hours, Hurricane Daniel may be able to reach category 4 strength.

[summer blizzard]

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006

200 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006

DESPITE FORECASTS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING...

TENACIOUS DANIEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES

DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY SYMMETRIC

RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...VERY INDICATIVE OF AN ANNULAR TYPE

HURRICANE. EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED

DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS... THE EYE HAS ALSO CLEARED AND

WARMED... WHICH HAS PRODUCED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KT

FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 115 KT FROM AFWA. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE

BETWEEN T6.3 AND 6.7 OR ABOUT 125 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS

BEEN INCREASED TO 125 KT.

ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DANIEL SHOULD SOON

BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOW LITTLE STRONGER THAN

PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS BEEN ADJUSTED

ACCORDINGLY. DANIEL'S WEAKENING SHOULD BE GRADUAL DURING THE NEXT

24-36 HOURS AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND SSTS ONLY COOL

SLIGHTLY. LATER IN THE FORECAST...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER

MUCH COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING.

DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION

IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN

ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND

THREE DAYS...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A DIGGING

TROUGH PRODUCES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A

LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 13.5N 127.4W 125 KT

12HR VT 22/0600Z 13.8N 128.9W 120 KT

24HR VT 22/1800Z 14.2N 130.7W 110 KT

36HR VT 23/0600Z 14.6N 132.3W 95 KT

48HR VT 23/1800Z 15.0N 133.9W 80 KT

72HR VT 24/1800Z 16.0N 136.0W 60 KT

96HR VT 25/1800Z 17.5N 138.0W 45 KT

120HR VT 26/1800Z 19.5N 140.0W 35 KT

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

NNNN

HURRRICANE DANIEL NOW HAS SUSTAINED WINDSPEEDS OF 145MPH AND IS AN ANULAR HURRICANE.

[Paranoid]

Daniel looks like it's strengthened further, though predicted to weaken. Currently has 150mph winds and a pressure of 933mbar and a good annular hurricane structure, beginning to look similar to Isabel in 2003. Predicted to weaken, but if it's annular then it could maintain it's strength or even increase.

[summer blizzard]

Hurricane Daniel is expected to hold this strength for the next twelve hours however given the recent strengthening, i would say that it is almost certain that Hurricane Daniel will reach category 5 strength.

[Somerset Squall]

Daniel is now weakening and has dropped to a category 3.

[kold weather]

Daniel is holding up very well and has now crossed into the Central Pacific and is heading close to Hawaii according to the last update, needs to be watched on those islands those because this could well be a strong TS and possibly, if it can keep up its strength for a little longer, it could well hit the islands as a cat-1. The good news is that those islands are pretty small on hurricane track scales, in that. Anyway could be very intresting to see where Daniel goes, because it could still give some problems despite it weakening now Here's the map anyway showing where Daniel could well go, would be looking at hurricane force gusts in some of those islands if its a strong TS at the time.