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Hurricane Daniel


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Just noticed (I'm a bit slow) that the Eastern Pacific is active again. Hurricane Daniel appear to be fairly strong and he's the type I like as he won't make landfall and destroy peoples homes and lives.

If I am mistaken and there is already a thread on this I apologise and can someone point me to it :-)

This from www.nhc.noaa.gov

000

WTPZ45 KNHC 190227

TCDEP5

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006

800 PM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006

THE HURRICANE IS CONTINUING ITS INTENSIFICATION WITH TIGHTLY-WOUND

BANDS OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER AND AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW

PATTERN. AFTER A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS AGO...A SMALL

EYE IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT IN BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK

CLASSIFICATIONS OF 65 KT FROM SAB/TAFB AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS

OF 72 KT.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL

ANTICYCLONE NEAR DANIEL PROVIDING A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE

NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE SSTS ARE WARM AND SLIGHTLY

ABOVE AVERAGE. ALL SIGNS POINT TO AT LEAST A STEADY INTENSIFICATION

FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE SSTS BEGIN TO COOL. THEREAFTER...

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF STEADY/SLIGHTLY DECREASINGLY SSTS AND

LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR MIGHT FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN

ANNULAR-TYPE HURRICANE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW DANIEL TO STAY

STRONGER FOR A LONGER AMOUNT OF TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY

FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE WHICH KEEP

DANIEL AS A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DANIEL IS MOVING BASICALLY DUE WEST...ABOUT 270/10. LITTLE CHANGE

WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS AS MODEL

GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THEREAFTER...THE GFS AND ITS

ENSEMBLES DIVERGE A LITTLE BY MOVING DANIEL ON A MORE

WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH

ALONG ABOUT 130W. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/ECMWF CLUSTER SHOWS LESS OF A

TROUGH...KEEPING THE HURRICANE ON A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN THE

GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED A LITTLE

SOUTH OF PREVIOUS...ALONG THE LINES OF THE ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE

MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 11.9N 118.4W 70 KT

12HR VT 19/1200Z 12.0N 119.9W 80 KT

24HR VT 20/0000Z 12.2N 121.5W 90 KT

36HR VT 20/1200Z 12.6N 123.3W 100 KT

48HR VT 21/0000Z 13.0N 125.0W 100 KT

72HR VT 22/0000Z 13.7N 128.5W 100 KT

96HR VT 23/0000Z 14.5N 132.0W 85 KT

120HR VT 24/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W 70 KT

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    000

    WTPZ45 KNHC 200841

    TCDEP5

    HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006

    200 AM PDT THU JUL 20 2006

    SHORT-WAVE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS AN

    EXCELLENT SSMIS OVERPASS FROM AROUND 0400 UTC...INDICATE DANIEL'S

    EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS NOW COMPLETE. CURRENT INTENSITY

    ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB...90 KT FROM SAB...AND 102 KT FROM

    THE AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES. BASED UPON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL

    INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 100 KT AND DANIEL IS NOW A MAJOR

    HURRICANE.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...280/8.

    DANIEL IS FINALLY GAINING A BIT OF LATITUDE WHILE STEERED BY A

    LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME

    MORE CLUSTERED IN THE LATTER PERIODS AS OPPOSED TO THE PREVIOUS

    CYCLE...WITH THE SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION

    THROUGH FIVE DAYS. SINCE THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED IN THE

    PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE

    WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION.

    THE CHALLENGE WITH DANIEL LIES IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. BOTH THE

    SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CAPS THE HURRICANE AT 100 KT.

    HOWEVER DUE TO THE RECENT COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT

    CYCLE...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KT IS FORECAST.

    ADDITIONALLY...A WARM OCEAN AND A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ARE

    ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN

    DANIEL AS A STRONG HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...COOLER SEA SURFACE

    TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN

    THE CYCLONE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 5 DAYS.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 20/0900Z 12.2N 121.9W 100 KT

    12HR VT 20/1800Z 12.4N 123.1W 110 KT

    24HR VT 21/0600Z 13.0N 124.6W 115 KT

    36HR VT 21/1800Z 13.5N 126.3W 110 KT

    48HR VT 22/0600Z 14.0N 128.0W 100 KT

    72HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 131.0W 80 KT

    96HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 134.0W 65 KT

    120HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 137.0W 55 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

    Hurricane Daniel has finished an eyewall replacement cycle and is now expected to become a strong category 3 hurricane, i would not rule out a category 4.

    I repeat, HURRICANE DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR CATEGORY 3/4 HURRICANE IN AROUND 24 HOURS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

    Apparently Daniel may be an Annular Hurricane. As for strength, Category 4 looks likely. Daniel already has 125mph winds, just a little more strengthening and it could make it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    000

    WTPZ45 KNHC 202032

    TCDEP5

    HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006

    200 PM PDT THU JUL 20 2006

    VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIEL HAS BECOME A

    VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE. A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS

    DETECTED A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH A 25-30 NM WIDE EYE.

    DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT

    AND WARMED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO

    INCREASE TO 115 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY

    HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KT...MAKING DANIEL A POWERFUL CATEGORY

    FOUR HURRICANE.

    BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DANIEL

    SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY VERY SOON. THE OFFICIAL

    WIND SPEED FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS.

    IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN THAN

    GUIDANCE INDICATES GIVEN ITS ANNULAR APPEARANCE. AFTER 48 HOURS...

    DANIEL WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE...AS SHEAR IS FORECAST

    TO INCREASE AND THE SSTS GRADUALLY COOL.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8. MODEL GUIDANCE IS

    TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

    THEREAFTER...SOME SPREAD IS SEEN IN THE TRACK MODELS AS THE GFDL

    CONTINUES TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET...

    NOGAPS...AND GFS CONTINUE DANIEL ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.

    THE CURRENT TRACK MAINTAINS THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AND IS

    AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

    AN EXCELLENT AND VERY IMPRESSIVE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1356 UTC HELPED

    TO DEFINE THE WIND RADII FOR THIS ADVISORY.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 20/2100Z 12.7N 123.4W 115 KT

    12HR VT 21/0600Z 13.1N 124.6W 120 KT

    24HR VT 21/1800Z 13.6N 126.1W 110 KT

    36HR VT 22/0600Z 14.1N 127.9W 100 KT

    48HR VT 22/1800Z 14.6N 129.6W 85 KT

    72HR VT 23/1800Z 15.5N 133.0W 65 KT

    96HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W 55 KT

    120HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W 45 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER BROWN

    Hurricane Dennis is now expected to peak in twelve hours with sustianed winds of 140mph.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL

    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006

    800 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006

    DANIEL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN INFRARED SATELLITE

    IMAGERY. THE EYE HAS EXPANDED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW

    ABOUT 30-35 NM IN DIAMETER. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL

    AGENCIES REMAIN 115 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR

    THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT DANIEL WILL

    SOON BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT

    FORECAST AS MUCH NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND

    THE HURRICANE MAY BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS

    THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREAFTER... DANIEL WILL BE ENCOUNTERING

    COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL

    FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY.

    AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DANIEL IS MOVING SLIGHTLY

    FASTER AND WESTWARD THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A LONGER 12-18 HOUR

    AVERAGE MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/10. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS

    CLUSTERED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING DURING THE NEXT 3

    HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WEAKEN

    THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE

    HURRICANE. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE CYCLONE AND TURN IT MORE

    NORTHWESTWARD. THE NOGAPS IS MUCH FASTER THAN ALL THE OTHER

    GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS

    ADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 21/1500Z 13.4N 126.3W 115 KT

    12HR VT 22/0000Z 13.7N 127.7W 110 KT

    24HR VT 22/1200Z 14.2N 129.5W 100 KT

    36HR VT 23/0000Z 14.6N 131.3W 85 KT

    48HR VT 23/1200Z 15.1N 133.1W 75 KT

    72HR VT 24/1200Z 16.0N 136.0W 60 KT

    96HR VT 25/1200Z 17.5N 138.0W 45 KT

    120HR VT 26/1200Z 19.0N 139.5W 35 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

    NNNN

    It looks like Hurricane Daniel has peaked as a strong category 3 hurricane and is expected to weaken however if it can get another pulse of deep convection over the next 24 hours, Hurricane Daniel may be able to reach category 4 strength.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL

    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006

    200 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006

    DESPITE FORECASTS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING...

    TENACIOUS DANIEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES

    DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY SYMMETRIC

    RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...VERY INDICATIVE OF AN ANNULAR TYPE

    HURRICANE. EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED

    DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS... THE EYE HAS ALSO CLEARED AND

    WARMED... WHICH HAS PRODUCED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KT

    FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 115 KT FROM AFWA. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE

    BETWEEN T6.3 AND 6.7 OR ABOUT 125 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS

    BEEN INCREASED TO 125 KT.

    ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DANIEL SHOULD SOON

    BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOW LITTLE STRONGER THAN

    PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS BEEN ADJUSTED

    ACCORDINGLY. DANIEL'S WEAKENING SHOULD BE GRADUAL DURING THE NEXT

    24-36 HOURS AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND SSTS ONLY COOL

    SLIGHTLY. LATER IN THE FORECAST...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER

    MUCH COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING.

    DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION

    IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN

    ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND

    THREE DAYS...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A DIGGING

    TROUGH PRODUCES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL

    FORECAST WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A

    LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST

    PERIOD.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 21/2100Z 13.5N 127.4W 125 KT

    12HR VT 22/0600Z 13.8N 128.9W 120 KT

    24HR VT 22/1800Z 14.2N 130.7W 110 KT

    36HR VT 23/0600Z 14.6N 132.3W 95 KT

    48HR VT 23/1800Z 15.0N 133.9W 80 KT

    72HR VT 24/1800Z 16.0N 136.0W 60 KT

    96HR VT 25/1800Z 17.5N 138.0W 45 KT

    120HR VT 26/1800Z 19.5N 140.0W 35 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

    NNNN

    HURRRICANE DANIEL NOW HAS SUSTAINED WINDSPEEDS OF 145MPH AND IS AN ANULAR HURRICANE.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

    Daniel looks like it's strengthened further, though predicted to weaken. Currently has 150mph winds and a pressure of 933mbar and a good annular hurricane structure, beginning to look similar to Isabel in 2003. Predicted to weaken, but if it's annular then it could maintain it's strength or even increase.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Hurricane Daniel is expected to hold this strength for the next twelve hours however given the recent strengthening, i would say that it is almost certain that Hurricane Daniel will reach category 5 strength.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Daniel is now weakening and has dropped to a category 3.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Daniel is holding up very well and has now crossed into the Central Pacific and is heading close to Hawaii according to the last update, needs to be watched on those islands those because this could well be a strong TS and possibly, if it can keep up its strength for a little longer, it could well hit the islands as a cat-1. The good news is that those islands are pretty small on hurricane track scales, in that. Anyway could be very intresting to see where Daniel goes, because it could still give some problems despite it weakening now Here's the map anyway showing where Daniel could well go, would be looking at hurricane force gusts in some of those islands if its a strong TS at the time.

    145427W_sm.gif

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