Is It Just A Freak Of Nature? Or Proof Of Global Warming? As Temperatures Hit Record Highs, What’s Fuelling The Heatwave?

[Jane Louise]

http://earthquirks.blogsome.com/2006/07/19...s-so-hot-today/

Hope I've put this in the right thread.Had this delivered by email. An interesting Read.

[Angel15]

Very interesting ... and worrying!

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Can i please just note a trend over the past 40 years cannot be used accurately due to the fact that the weather would need to be recorded since the world began, and this, im sure, is very unlikely. So a difference in the mean for the last 40 years is not very accurate and i this would still not convince me about global warming.

On the other hand The last july temperature record was set in 1911 and where people complaining of global Warming then??? i think not.

I'm afraid that we may be warming but i dont think that Humans are playing such a major role as they are made out to be and i think that change will occur in many generations to come whether it becomes hotter or colder we will just have to sit back and watch.

SNOW-MAN2006

[hotflyer882]

The Sun.

[Gray-Wolf]

On the other hand The last july temperature record was set in 1911 and where people complaining of global Warming then??? i think not.

I'm afraid that we may be warming but i dont think that Humans are playing such a major role as they are made out to be and i think that change will occur in many generations to come whether it becomes hotter or colder we will just have to sit back and watch.

SNOW-MAN2006July

Can this be a 'safe' viewpoint S.M.? If we consider the dependencies we , the developed world, have amassed over the past 96yrs, never mind the global population increase that this 96 year period has allowed then we may start to see how finely balanced our continuation is. Do you have access to your own water supply or are you mains fed? Do you supplement your diet with your own produce or are you 'store fed'? The playing field never remains the same over time and I think that most concerns over any type of climate change is our inability to adapt quickly enough to keep the grain production flowing.

[Wolfspirit]

Can this be a 'safe' viewpoint S.M.? If we consider the dependencies we , the developed world, have amassed over the past 96yrs, never mind the global population increase that this 96 year period has allowed then we may start to see how finely balanced our continuation is. Do you have access to your own water supply or are you mains fed? Do you supplement your diet with your own produce or are you 'store fed'? The playing field never remains the same over time and I think that most concerns over any type of climate change is our inability to adapt quickly enough to keep the grain production flowing.

It's global warming, rain forests being cut down, man intruding on nature - deffy global warming. Too many freak occurrences lately which are linked to the weather as well m- all is culminative imo.

[kippure]

It's global warming, rain forests being cut down, man intruding on nature - deffy global warming. Too many freak occurrences lately which are linked to the weather as well m- all is culminative imo.

Look at it this way, are the freak weather conditions only more common because of are increased awareness through communication systems, Internet , Global news, radio etc? Ten years ago we would have only heard about a mud slide in china a week after the event.

[noggin]

You beat me to it, Kippure........that's just what I was going to say. My police contact said the same thing about crime rates.....that people are more frightened of crime now because it is so widely reported in the media. It's not that the crime rate has jumped much, people are just more aware of it.

....and as SNOWMAN 2006 says, people weren't complaining about GW back then.

Crikey, the climate will fluctuate. It always has done. GW is just the current bandwagon, although the media seem to be referring more and more to "climate shift" these days, rather than GW.

Probably not the right place to ask, but as I'm here.......I heard an eminent chap (forgotten his name!) on the radio the other day and he said that there were 7 climate systems around the Earth and the reason it is hot at the moment is that we are getting stuff up from the Sahara and France. I assume that these climate systems "move" a bit around the Earth rather like a sphere around a sphere, IYKWIM. If this is the case, then I cannot really see that it poses a massive problem......it will all move back again at some point. Mother Nature knows best etc.etc.

I honestly wonder whether mankind's actions have much effect at all......there are such things as coincidences. Also, although we know things, we don't know everything. In fact we don't even know how much we don't know(! ) and a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.

Does anyone know the names of these 7 systems as I would be interested to know. Ta.

[Snowly does it]

Whats fueeling the heatwave is weather systems emanating from a hot source. Nothing unusual about that at all.

The question is whether the source is abnormally warm, not the subject surely?

[The PIT]

Maybe Global warming maybe not. Time will tell.

A) Climate of this planet is always changing.

B ) Records are always there for beating.

C) Recording has got more reliable.

D) Communications have got much better even more so in the last 20 years. So any Weather event that goes off you hear it about while years ago you wouldn't.

E) Population has increased so again local events are more likely to get noticed.

F) Too many vested interests for Global warming and anti Global warming to get a true picture.

G) Most of all we're still learning.

Edited July 21, 2006 by The PIT

[Guest Daniel]

http://earthquirks.blogsome.com/2006/07/19...s-so-hot-today/

Hope I've put this in the right thread.Had this delivered by email. An interesting Read.

Yes we do appear at present to be going through a warm period. Indeed most moths and years have been well above average since 1990 and most summers have been fine and warm. But it has happened all before. The medival warm period before the last little iceage had a long run of very warm summers with central England mean about 1C warmer than 20th century Average. This allowed vines to be grown over England and crops to be grown at high levals and those were the good times. Then it turned cold and the little iceage began with long severe winters on average and cooler summers though still with good hot ones from time to time but not as hot as today. The warm spell we going through at present could be nothing more than a phase and could easerly come to an end. Indeed some say the next great iceage is due and with the Gulfstream slowing down and the sun possible going quiter as well in the comming years we could well start to see record breaking cold in near future high rainfall as more lows cross us in Summer and much colder winters.

[The PIT]

Yes we do appear at present to be going through a warm period. Indeed most moths and years have been well above average since 1990 and most summers have been fine and warm. But it has happened all before. The medival warm period before the last little iceage had a long run of very warm summers with central England mean about 1C warmer than 20th century Average. This allowed vines to be grown over England and crops to be grown at high levals and those were the good times. Then it turned cold and the little iceage began with long severe winters on average and cooler summers though still with good hot ones from time to time but not as hot as today. The warm spell we going through at present could be nothing more than a phase and could easerly come to an end. Indeed some say the next great iceage is due and with the Gulfstream slowing down and the sun possible going quiter as well in the comming years we could well start to see record breaking cold in near future high rainfall as more lows cross us in Summer and much colder winters.

How do we know it wasn't as hot as today?

Today we've got set procedures to measure temps and thats ignoring spreading cities.

[kippure]

You beat me to it, Kippure........that's just what I was going to say. My police contact said the same thing about crime rates.....that people are more frightened of crime now because it is so widely reported in the media. It's not that the crime rate has jumped much, people are just more aware of it.

....and as SNOWMAN 2006 says, people weren't complaining about GW back then.

Crikey, the climate will fluctuate. It always has done. GW is just the current bandwagon, although the media seem to be referring more and more to "climate shift" these days, rather than GW.

Probably not the right place to ask, but as I'm here.......I heard an eminent chap (forgotten his name!) on the radio the other day and he said that there were 7 climate systems around the Earth and the reason it is hot at the moment is that we are getting stuff up from the Sahara and France. I assume that these climate systems "move" a bit around the Earth rather like a sphere around a sphere, IYKWIM. If this is the case, then I cannot really see that it poses a massive problem......it will all move back again at some point. Mother Nature knows best etc.etc.

I honestly wonder whether mankind's actions have much effect at all......there are such things as coincidences. Also, although we know things, we don't know everything. In fact we don't even know how much we don't know(! ) and a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.

Does anyone know the names of these 7 systems as I would be interested to know. Ta.

All i can find is info on the trade winds on google, cant find anything on 7 climate systems.

Can anyone else find these climate systems?

[cyclonic happiness]

I do believe that we have made a minor,(very minor) impact on the earth. However, i also believe that anything man does on this planet will be corrected by the earth itself. All this rubbish about 'saving the planet', is really mankind shouting about saving itself, the earth is quite safe whether we are here or not! But, being at the top of the food chain we naturally should worry, as a species, about climate change in terms of food production and we all know that there won't be enough sustainable food produced in the coming years, decades to keep the whole population of the earth fed. But, as a species we will survive, we have done for three million or so years!! and that's without the benefits of technology, farming, (a relatively recent introduction),etc. Okay, you may say that millions will die, billions possibly, but we will just have to get on with it, make as many changes as possible to make sure the species survives, (in a 'token', 'green' way). Take energy. The main obstruction we have to a limitless supply of energy, are our own governments and culture, who are obsessed with money and profit!! I mean, for goodness sake, we sit on a ball of molten lava and fire just a few miles below our feet. You cannot tell me that 'they' can't devise a way to drill down into the mantle and harness the heat to make steam and drive generators!!!! 'It's too expensive', they say! but it could be done, and that would keep us going for long enough for us to advance technology sufficiently to solve the problems of the 'excess' population. We will survive this by adaptation, after all, necessity is the mother of all invention!

[Dawlish]

radio the other day and he said that there were 7 climate systems around the Earth and the reason it is hot at the moment is that we are getting stuff up from the Sahara and France.

Don't know about the 7 systems (I've never heard of them), but when an eminent chappie agrees with me on the source of our heat, I've got to be looking in the post for the letter from Tony elevating this OMRLP front bench fine figure of a man to the Lords, at least; maybe the monarchy!!

Lord Paul of Dawlish (One day, Rodders, we'll be a duke!) - dream on!!

Edited July 21, 2006 by Dawlish

[The PIT]

Don't know about the 7 systems (I've never heard of them), but when an eminent chappie agrees with me on the source of our heat, I've got to be looking in the post for the letter from Tony elevating this OMRLP front bench fine figure of a man to the Lords, at least; maybe the monarchy!!

Lord Paul of Dawlish (One day, Rodders, we'll be a duke!) - dream on!!

Dawlish I've just farted You're on your way mate.

[Nick H]

Maybe Global warming maybe not. Time will tell.

B ) Records are always there for beating.

C) Recording has got more reliable.

B)But records can be beaten in two ways: colder as well as warmer. The fact that more maxima are tending to be surpassed should tell you something.

C) This makes no sense: if recording has got more reliable then it, if anything, would have exerted a downward trend in observations since there are far stricter specifications now, as opposed to a hundred years ago when you had thermometers in private gardens one foot above bloody great asphalt or concrete surfaces next to glass windows. I am amazed that we still heard about the Epsom 1911 "record" last week, an observation that should have been discarded long ago.

Edited July 23, 2006 by Nick H

[Jane Louise]

From recent research I have noted:

That Global temperatures could rise anywhere between 1.5 and 5.8°C by 2080 and more heat waves in summer has been predicted .The UK could be hit by 10 extra severe storms similar on scale to the Great Storm of 1987

It has also been predicted that the earth's climate will rise by 3 degrees over the next 100 years resulting in

(1) Sea levels rising (2) Global food supplies reduced (3) Three billion people could suffer increased water stress (4) Two hundred and ninety million people could be exposed to the risk of malaria

and (5) Tropical rain forests could also disappear due to water shortages

It is said that the UK will be affected by most of the expected global impacts of climate change. It is likely that there will be a northwards shift in natural habitats and agricultural zones of 50-80 km per decade Scientists also believe that there will be significant impacts on soils, wildlife, water resources and agriculture in the south of England.

[Dawlish]

B)But records can be beaten in two ways: colder as well as warmer. The fact that more maxima are tending to be surpassed should tell you something.

C) This makes no sense: if recording has got more reliable then it, if anything, would have exerted a downward trend in observations since there are far stricter specifications now, as opposed to a hundred years ago when you had thermometers in private gardens one foot above bloody great asphalt or concrete surfaces next to glass windows. I am amazed that we still heard about the Epsom 1911 "record" last week, an observation that should have been discarded long ago.

Well put Nick. Exactly the point I was making on a different thread. If the world and the UK aren't warming, there should be as many cold years/records as hot ones.........and there aren't!

Paul

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't think this heatwave can be blamed on "global warming" in itself- the temperatures are only inflated by about 0.5C relative to 30 years ago, most of it is due to southerly winds transporting air from exceptionally southerly latitudes. On 20 July the southerlies pulled air right up from north Africa to N Scotland, which is extremely rare.

However, what global warming will do is increase the frequency of hot weather events, and reduce the frequency of cold weather events. Thus, the increasing frequency of severe heatwaves is likely to be at least partly attributable to the rise in global temperatures.

To have two exceptionally hot summers in four years is unusual, but not unprecedented- take 1947/1949, 1955/1959, 1975/1976, 1983/1984, 1989/1990 for example. However, these exceptional summers will become more and more exceptional, on average, as the globe heats up.

[shuggee]

Saturday's 'Weather Eye' discusses this subject:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...mp;#entry745327

[Dawlish]

Saturday's 'Weather Eye' discusses this subject:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...mp;#entry745327

Yup. Talked about it at some length on a different thread Shuggee! Keep up, old boy!

Paul

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I honestly wonder whether mankind's actions have much effect at all......there are such things as coincidences. Also, although we know things, we don't know everything. In fact we don't even know how much we don't know(! ) and a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.

Does anyone know the names of these 7 systems as I would be interested to know. Ta.

No. But I do know

World Population: 6,600,115,810 = 6.6 billion persons

6.6 BILLION

Earth: 148,939,100,000 m² = 148 billion m² land.

Persons averaged out each take 0.5 metre square of physical space (some more some less) at a fair few inches thick; that's 3.3 billion m² land - 2.2% of Earth's land surface.

Which would completely cover:

Britain: 244,820,000 m²

France: 674,843,000 m²

Germany:357,050,000 m²

Spain: 504,782.000 m²

Portugal: 92,390,000 m²

Italy: 301,318,000 m²

Turkey: 780,580,000 m²

All covered with people, with no gaps.

Or India

India: 3,287,590,000 m²

Can you imagine a radiator the size of India at a constant 37C ??

Edited July 24, 2006 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Gray-Wolf]

Having lived thru' 76 as a 'lad' and obviously being around for 2003 I find it hard to believe that folk are so dismissive of the summer we are in the middle of.

We have only just hit the summer hols for the kids and it's been cripplingly hot for weeks. How many ' No Tie ' days did you used to have at your high school in the summer term??? I don't think ,even in 76 we had as many as this year will have warranted (so far) and it's only day 1 into [' the hols' (for them .....lucky B*****'s). If we again get tales of nuclear reactors that are having to go off line because their concrete foundations have expanded too much I'll give up! (Especially if someone tries to tell me we're at the start of a 'cold phase')