Repeat performance

[Guest]

Updated: 25/07/06 at 09:15
Almost a repeat performance of last week on the way. Storms are more likely to steal the headlines from the heat this time round though.
Read full story here

[The Enforcer]

Updated: 25/07/06 at 09:15<br/> Almost a repeat performance of last week on the way. Storms are more likely to steal the headlines from the heat this time round though.<br/><a href="http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi">Read full story here</a>

I think you ought to issue an alert for tonight on the basis of what's gathering along the south coast?

[johnholmes]

this is what you presumably have just read

These will start to show themselves during the latter part of the day today as some high level storms move toward the southwest of the country

what more do you want.

If you check you will find there were NO severe storms last night so the lack of any Alert was correct.

We do watch and ponder on these things mate, just as we are doing at the moment about today.

I like your signature!!

John

Edited July 26, 2006 by johnholmes

[Dawlish]

Wnen are you all going to commit yourselves to the cooler, more unsettled weather at the start of August, John? all the other agencies now have. I think you may have missed the boat!

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/weather/europ...look/index.html

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/HOME/

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/fornational14.asp

Paul

[Paul]

You ought to read the close up forecast

Looking further ahead, to the weekendNot a lot of change at first but some indications from the models, although it’s a long way ahead, that somewhat lower temperatures may spread in over the weekend. Signs of an Atlantic low approaching! We will update the forecast and this probability on Wednesday.

[johnholmes]

well quoted Paul

Considering how much sweat and toil goes in to those it amazes me people do not seem to read them.

having said that Dawlish did make comment about something I had written in a previous Close Up!

John

ps

I'm going senile it was me that posted it.

okay Dawlish

As Paul says read the Close Up today.

Like the publicity says they are done Monday, Wednesday and Friday. They do involve a great deal of work by the forecaster doing it. Apart from me they all have full time jobs to do as well.

Likewise with the Watches/Alerts, we do our best mate.

Yes it does look as if the hot weather MAY be drawing to at least a temporary close. But to para phrase one of your comments on another thread, about max temps today. Nothing is ever in stone in meteorology, until the date/time has passed. That is something I learned professionally many many years ago.

jh

Edited July 26, 2006 by johnholmes

[Dawlish]

well quoted Paul

Considering how much sweat and toil goes in to those it amazes me people do not seem to read them.

having said that Dawlish did make comment about something I had written in a previous Close Up!

John

ps

I'm going senile it was me that posted it.

okay Dawlish

As Paul says read the Close Up today.

Like the publicity says they are done Monday, Wednesday and Friday. They do involve a great deal of work by the forecaster doing it. Apart from me they all have full time jobs to do as well.

Likewise with the Watches/Alerts, we do our best mate.

Yes it does look as if the hot weather MAY be drawing to at least a temporary close. But to para phrase one of your comments on another thread, about max temps today. Nothing is ever in stone in meteorology, until the date/time has passed. That is something I learned professionally many many years ago.

jh

I know you do your best - your best is good too. Your last two sentences sum up my philosophy perfectly and explain why I use odds and probabilities to supplement language. Has netweather considered using them? It would give you an edge over other agencies that don't. With odds, it factors in the element of doubt in every forecast.....and always leaves you with a get-out!

I had read your original forecast, honest injun, and I think I referred to it as "non-committal"! I'm only teasing you all, really. My own long-term forecasting techniques are hugely experimental and have a long way to go before I get to your levels of experience, knowledge and expertise, same with the people on metcheck, TWO and (especially, of course) the Met office. You've got admit I may have got this one right before all of you, though again! (damn, no trumpet avatar - you must put one in the list for me!)

Paul

[The Enforcer]

what more do you want.

If you check you will find there were NO severe storms last night so the lack of any Alert was correct.

We do watch and ponder on these things mate, just as we are doing at the moment about today.

It was a reasonable question to put, as at midnight, it looked like something was developing. Anyway I was thinking of a yellow/amber alert rather than a red alert. I have no doubt that you guys gave an awful amount of thought to the matter and certainly a red alert was not justified.

[johnholmes]

re the discussion earlier with Dawlish and my suggestion in the Monday Close Up about a possible change.

below is the latest GFS prog for that day

I sadly did not keep the one I used for my Close Up on Monday but it had a closed circulation of below 1000mb for the same time over central Scotland.

See the difficulties of anyone who believes they can issue forecasts some 48 hours on. Hence my comment about the situation at the time.

It did seem a more than likely scenario that the hot, humid, generally slack southerly was going to be replaced. Just how and with what exactly was open to considerable doubt. Still is, change it will, and within the time scale being suggested by most models, but the fine detail! ho hum!!

here is the 12z today for 12z next Monday

John

Edited July 26, 2006 by johnholmes

[johnholmes]

the 12z is quite interesting in that it seems to half back track to its position that I mentioned earlier to its issue on Monday. It now has a large area of low pressure, albeit a rather slack one over much of the west and north west of the uk.

Remember the version on Monday suggested a closed circulation over central Scotland.

Be interesting to see how it continues to deal with this feature.

Both myself and Paul(Dawlish) tend to believe that it can 'signal' an event quite some way ahead, drop it, reinvent it, drop it, only for a version of it to be there on the day itself.

We shall have to wait and see.

John

Edited July 26, 2006 by johnholmes

[The Enforcer]

Both myself and Paul(Dawlish) tend to believe that it can 'signal' an event quite some way ahead, drop it, reinvent it, drop it, only for a version of it to be there on the day itself.

The tried and trusted 'scattergun' approach.

[johnholmes]

The tried and trusted 'scattergun' approach.

eh, no idea what you mean mate

[Dawlish]

The tried and trusted 'scattergun' approach.

Nope, don't get that one!

Paul

[Methuselah]

The tried and trusted 'scattergun' approach.

Me neither!

[johnholmes]

hi

Can anyone show me where I can get the 12z GFS issue for LAST MONDAY please for this next monday.

ie

GFS on 24/07/06 12z issue with the T+168 valid for 12z on Monday 31/07/06.

much appreciated if anyone knows.

John

[The Enforcer]

Example of Scattergun:

Mon: "Sunday will be wet"

Tues: "Sunday will be dry"

Weds: "Sunday will be wet"

Thurs: "Sunday will be dry"

Fri: "Sunday will be wet"

Sat: "Tomorrow will be dry"

Whether the outcome is wet or dry - "We predicted this early in the week".

[johnholmes]

hi

This is an update on the comments made into this thread. A week ago yesterday I did the Close Up and closed by saying that GFS was apparently predicting the end of the July hot spell by Monday 31/08/06 with a low centred over central Scotland.

As the week went by I kept an eye on this prediction. It maintained this idea with the low being moved from wsw of Ireland to Rockall to off western Scotland. The chart below is what the 12z actual for Monday 31/07/06 actually showed.

In my view it was not a bad T+168 hours idea from GFS. This 'success' is all the more noticeable in that it did appear at T+200 hours, almost 10 days before the event. Way ahead of anyone/anything else suggesting this.

John

Edited August 1, 2006 by johnholmes