Prolonged Drought And Climate Change

[Angel15]

This is from the Met office - seems we are all in for a rough time ahead

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/corporate/pre.../pds/index.html

[kold weather]

It's intresting to read about the future predictions, however while summers may well get drier, if winters get wetter then surely if we manage water correctly there is not gonig to any net loss of water through climate change, in other words we'll get just as much rain as before but it'll be more akin to the tropical regions that have a wet and dry season. I think flash flooding will be a massive problem for some areas in the next 50-100 year, I bet London gets flooded badly at least once in the next 100 years.

[Gray-Wolf]

The 'flash flooding' issue is an interesting one. With so much land covered in concrete/tarmac and tall structures intercepting rainfall and streams 'culverted' mean built up areas have the potential to have very interesting times ahead!!

Edited July 26, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[Angel15]

It's intresting to read about the future predictions, however while summers may well get drier, if winters get wetter then surely if we manage water correctly there is not gonig to any net loss of water through climate change, in other words we'll get just as much rain as before but it'll be more akin to the tropical regions that have a wet and dry season. I think flash flooding will be a massive problem for some areas in the next 50-100 year, I bet London gets flooded badly at least once in the next 100 years.

True - only problem will be if the winters are not wet, it was fairly 'mild' (sorry to use that term!) this winter.

[Gray-Wolf]

The other thing with a prolonged drought is the road surfaces and their demise. Anyone living over glacial clay will know that when the clays dry out they shrink and crack. In 2003 many millions had to be spent by local authorities which had clay overburden as road foundations as ,when the clay dried, the tarmac was pulled apart and the roads collapsed. Couple this type of erosion with flash flooding and you have a problem.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

If we get hotter will more water evaporate causing more rain???

However i suspect that the current trend now is for us to get similar weather to america with hot summers and cooler winters.

The drought conditions , currently being experience, is nothing but a blip as it's only the worst in 100 years and how long has the earth been around???

I just fear for us in the modern world as if we do get drier we will have to turn to alternative methods to get our water (filtering the sea) which will result in water prices possibl soreing.

SNOW-MAN2006

[Guest Mike W]

We won't get colder winter though Snow-Man2006. IMO

Edited July 28, 2006 by Mike W

[Gray-Wolf]

If we get hotter will more water evaporate causing more rain???

However i suspect that the current trend now is for us to get similar weather to america with hot summers and cooler winters.

The drought conditions , currently being experience, is nothing but a blip as it's only the worst in 100 years and how long has the earth been around???

I just fear for us in the modern world as if we do get drier we will have to turn to alternative methods to get our water (filtering the sea) which will result in water prices possibl soreing.

SNOW-MAN2006

America's climate is more of a continental type (apart from the west coast temperate rain forrests which are more akin to our own weather patterns) so I don't think we can compare (like for like). The increase in evaporation will lead to more 'extreme' periods of rain but, on land, the baked hard ground /tarmac'd /concreted surfaces (with 'flood defence' rapid drainage potential in both city and country) will only lead to the rapid removal of this 'extra' water before it can be collected for our use. This rapid removal of our rainfall will have big and lasting effects on our own environment over the next 10yrs as the water table drops and trees start to suffer/die. We could very soon be facing our own 'dust bowl ' scenario with the North sea being the recipient of our best agricultural land.

The global poulation, and it's dependence on small (relatively) areas of agriculture is very different today to 100yrs ago and as such very small changes to the local climate can lead to very big impacts globally (in the same way as we are supposed to think Global, act local ourselves).

[SNOW-MAN2006]

We won't get colder winter though Snow-Man2006. IMO

Just you wait and see

SNOW-MAN2006

[The PIT]

Well Cull 50% of South Easterns and the problems solved. Over population is the problem.

[Snowly does it]

Well Cull 50% of South Easterns and the problems solved. Over population is the problem.

Lol Pit. Not all of the south east is overpopulated, I hope us hardy Norfolk folk get spared!

Excerpt from an imaginary planning meeting...

'OK, these 1000 new homes proposed.... my only concern is that they are on a flood plain'

'I'm hungry'

'Me too, sod it, approved!'

The problem is distribution, not numbers. Too many people following the beige brick road to the big city and finding it full of smog and Ken Livngstone. There is nowhere to house them other than on a 'well, it probably won't flood for a few years' type site.

[Stratos Ferric]

It's intresting to read about the future predictions, however while summers may well get drier, if winters get wetter then surely if we manage water correctly there is not gonig to any net loss of water through climate change, in other words we'll get just as much rain as before but it'll be more akin to the tropical regions that have a wet and dry season. I think flash flooding will be a massive problem for some areas in the next 50-100 year, I bet London gets flooded badly at least once in the next 100 years.

The likely drift is towards a cool Mediterranean type climate, akin to that in say Portugal. As you say, good husbandry of resources would then be the key. Year round totals don't help if you can't store enough of the winter excess to see you through summer needs. Note that many Portuguese / Spaniards don't bother with lawns!

The water table shouldn't change too much so long as the annual totals remain the same, as winter recharge would take care of rebalancing. If, however, a shift towards more tropical type summer rain were to occur then as G-W suggests, much would be lost to run off (the "much" there extending beyond just water, to soil as well).

I suspect that in the UK the agricultural tenure of the land is sufficiently dense that in many instances irrigation would be implemented to take the place of natural rehydration, unless the climate became so hot and dry in summer that the formation of surface hard-pans were to become a real risk. We're a long way from that latter.

[VillagePlank]

Although I am no expert in the history of British climate, are we trying to claim that a drought this 'severe' has never occured before? Does the reasoning therefore follow that this is a justification for global warming?

My (very) cursory understanding of these things leads me to believe that we should be looking at frequency of occurence, and not existence of occurence. If I'm right, and I could wholly be wrong, then when was the last time we suffered such a drought?

I, of course, define drought as a period with low rain. What low is? I have no idea. I am uncomfortable with current meteorological trends towards arbitrary mean averages that appear to suit other purposes. Absolute values, I think, will suffice?

Edited August 1, 2006 by Wilson

[Angel15]

On the news last night it was brought to light that the water company actually sold off one resevoir in favour of building 150 new homes in the South East! They drained the resevoir just to do that.

[Snowly does it]

On the news last night it was brought to light that the water company actually sold off one resevoir in favour of building 150 new homes in the South East! They drained the resevoir just to do that.

Did the news indicate whether any alternative provision was made for water storage? Not that I have any faith in the water companies but I have as little faith in the media presenting a balanced story.