Tropical Depression Chris

[kold weather]

We have Td-3. It didn't look great yesterday but it was getting closer when i went to bed with a clear wave closing off but I wasn't sure if it was going to complete it, but alas it has!

Mind you I did have a sneaky feeling it would do something at the start of this week and it has.

Anyway the system looks very good at the moment with a large amount of convection around the center and some very cold cloud tops and good circlation, this tropical depression really should be Chris very soon given the new flare-up on its SW side. Despite stil lnot beig in perfect condtions it is doing very well and shear seems to have relaxed somewhat recently which has allowed for convection to form on the western side.

What will occur in the future then. Well at least in the short term some strengthening will occur. then after and depends on what hasppens with the upper level low that has been sitting off to the NW of the ssytem. If the TD can somehow avoid it then it won't get hit by a new wave of shear and could become pretty strong.

models are also very intresting as is the NHC latest advisory suggests the tropical depression could well end up heading towards the Bahamas region which if the shear has relaxed in that reigon water temps are good for some decent strengthening. Florida has to watch this Td very closely in case it strengthens much more then expected. For now I'd expect a mod TS to make landfall in Florida but yes there is scope for something much stronger. it's still to early in the game to tell!

By the way intrestingly, the models have this as Ts Chris already:

WHXX01 KWBC 010638

CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM THREE (AL032006) ON 20060801 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

060801 0600 060801 1800 060802 0600 060802 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 16.5N 58.8W 16.6N 60.7W 16.7N 62.7W 16.8N 64.6W

BAMM 16.5N 58.8W 17.1N 60.7W 17.7N 62.6W 18.3N 64.4W

A98E 16.5N 58.8W 17.1N 60.4W 17.7N 62.3W 18.3N 64.4W

LBAR 16.5N 58.8W 17.0N 60.6W 17.8N 62.6W 18.4N 64.6W

SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 46KTS 50KTS

DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 46KTS 50KTS

So in all probablity we already have Chris and I suspect that sat imagery has improved overnight to the point where the NHc feel confident of upgrading it to a 35kt tropical storm and I agree with them because its got some very good convection indeed and a nice little structure. I agree with what Graywolf has said on the other thread, this one needs very careful watching because hurricane Jeanne didn't form miles away from this system. ~Expect a general W/WNW motion to occur over the next 48-120hrs taking it close to the Bahamas and who knows, possibly a florida hit or if a weakness occurs to its north, maybe even the Carolinas.

[kold weather]

Confirmation on the last post, Td-3 is now tropical storm Chris!

TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

So it begins, this will be intrestring to watch and could have quite an impact when it makes landfall but where will it make landfall and how strong is the key question. Oh well time to start watching the USA weather channels again!

Just hope this system odesn't decide to target Florida again after what its had to go through over the last two years.

Watches and warnings have been issued for some of the islands such as Antiga and also watches for PR as well, its going to be very clsoe indeed to hitting PR, may just move to the north of that island. Mind you sayin that the GFDL tracks the system over PR and eventulaly weakens the system to nothing again, thats another possiblty but for now I'll stick with the NHc forecast of it just moving to the north of PR.

[summer blizzard]

This system could go anywhere, i believe that this system that this system will experience will experience rapid strengthening today, becoming a strong category 1 hurricane by the end of today, however it does look as thougfh shear will increase tommorow and wednesday, knocking the system back to a strong Tropical Storm/weak category 1 hurricane however shear should once again relax before landfall is made in Florida as a moderate category 1 hurricane before the system reemerges in the Gulf Of Mexico and expreiences rapid stengthening before landfall in either Luissiana or Missisipi as a strong category 3/weak category 4 hurricane (Katrina replay).

I favour a track between the purple and grey lines.

Edited August 1, 2006 by summer blizzard

[Paranoid]

I'd go for something similar to the yellow path on that chart, and say maybe a category 1 landfall in Cuba.

[kold weather]

Personally I think the purple is the most likely however current steering currents suggests that a turn more to the west is likely before a turn to the NW , however by that point it'd already be very close to PR. The key is really as always, how storng the system gets however I think the NHC should be fairly good call. As for it being cat-3 Sb, certainly the waters are favorable but i do think shear is gonig to be too high for that but I certainly think a hurricane is possible down the line, very possible indeed and i wouldn't rule anything out at this stage of the game!

Anyway Chris is looking very good right now, some impressive convective coverage and this system is probably already at 45mph give nhow impressive the structure is right now, it looks every bit as good as Alberto did when it had its large flare-up. If it can keep its coverage goign we might even be seeing the first signs of a CDO fgetting ready to form a sure sign that its getting better organised right now and as long a sthe shear is low its in a good place to strengthen.

(Edit-intresting thoughts SB, could be a possiblty if it gets into the gulf....)

[Gray-Wolf]

I agree that the Purple track is the one to follow. I also think that today may well develop Chris up to a cat 1 and, if she 'threads the needle' (passes through the Florida Straights) and enters the Gulf we may see the rapid development we witnessed a couple of times last year and end up with our first major Hurricane of the season (in the atlantic basin). As to landfall........lets let her grow a bit before we go there.

EDIT: After watching her (loops) she may well end up in the Caribbean Sea and so Jamaica/S. Cuba may be in her way.

Edited August 1, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[kold weather]

Thats apossiblty thoug hto be fair most decnt models have it either hitting the islands or going to the north but we have seen in the past how fickle these systems can be. In terms of steering, as always it deepnds exactly on strength. As a sign of increasing strength and organisation the sat estimates are now slowly but surely rising as the system maintains its deep convection over the center, its a very healthy looking system howeve rit is still quite lop-sided, which is common in 40-50mph tropical storms withthe main mass of convection on the south side, with drier air to its north as wel las the strongest shear.

We need to watch this systems track very clsoely, it has a high chance of hitting Florida I'd think but after that who knows, it may re-curve away if a weakness forms but thats not expected or it may head nito the Gulf where it could have all kind of fun and where major status would await or it may yet crash intothe islands if it doesn't gain enough lattiude in the next 24-48hrs, whatever the Virgin Isalnds will have some impact of some ort from this system. First concern though has to be the islands, and beyond that for east Florida with a system that may well be quite akin to hurricane Katrina when it hit.

It's gonig to have to dodge those two upper level lows, if it gets too close to either one and they will induce shear and give the system a real hard time, ther eis a chance that if it moves itslef in the exact right place that convection could explode and one of the ULL's may actually help to develop the systems outflow but the system has to move perfectly, if that were to occur hurricane would be a certainty.

[Guest Mr_S]

If it follows the tropical waves projection then its likely to land to the west of where Katrina landed imo.

I belive it could make a weak Cat 1 Hurricane over the next couple of days - Theres 2 low pressures sitting either side of Chris - north and south.

If Chris can hold its own and move along with the low pressures without either becoming dominant - and with SSTA's supportive for hurricanes in the area... we could well see the 1st Hurricane of the new season

[Rollo]

Anyone know offhand when the first hurricane was last year?

[Gray-Wolf]

I was rather hoping 90L would do more! The more potential Hybrids on the Eastern seaboard the better (closer to Washington D.C, the better!) IMO (just material damage please so Mr Bush can do his explaining as he plans his increases in his CO2 emmisions year on year).

[Hurricane Debby]

At last - Oh how I just love this time of year. Armchair storm chasing - can't beat it.

Here is Hurricane Tracks stance on things....

UPDATED: 9:30 am EDT, August 1, 2006

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL BE AN INTERESTING STORM TO TRACK

As you know now, TD #3 has intensified and become TS Chris. Top winds are around 40 mph but the NHC is now calling for additional strengthening over the next five days. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of the islands of the NE Caribbean and a tropical storm watch has been posted for Puerto Rico. Chris is currently forecast to pass very close to these islands and tropical storm conditions are certainly a possibility. Now that there is a five day forecast for Chris (there wasn't last night when it was a depression), the track shows a real threat to the Bahamas. It seems that the global models have done a poor job in even seeing Chris and thus have not been much help in providing guidance for the NHC forecast last night. The current intensity forecast shows a slowly but steadily strengthening storm to about 65 mph within the next five days. The latest discussion from the NHC indicates that Chris will be within a tricky environment- one that could allow it to strengthen more than forecast but one that could also weaken the storm considerably. Needless to say, we will have to monitor Chris very closely. I will post frequent updates here throughout the week.

The remainder of the Atlantic is quiet but most of the global models, for what it's worth, show additional development out near Africa in the coming days. It is now August and the meat of the season is about to come in to play. The east Pacific is active as well with TS Fabio and a new depression that has formed. Neither system poses any threat to land areas right now. I'll have another update here around Noon.

[kold weather]

hurricane Debby, indeed its an intresting time of year this in the tropics because its at this time of year that things usually get going and indeed its exactly happening like that.

There is one thing that i didn't mention in my last few psots and that was its foward speed. This has slowed a fair amount recntly. The reason for this is evident on the steering current charts:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ds/wg8dlm1.html

It works in a similar way as isobars do, in that its a streamline chart. The closer the lines, the stronger the steering winds aloft are. As you can see with the present chart Chris is the boundary of the trade winds and the Bermuda high meaning it has slowed a fair amount of over the last 24hrs almost half as fast.

As jeff Masters said (I believe thats where the quote is from?) this system could be rather tricky to forecast in terms of strength though its track is already looking quite firm for at least the next 96hrs as a general WNW direction but exactly waht angle of WNW it goes wil ldetermine if its a PR hit or whether its eventually a Bahamas and Florida hit.

Needs watching this one, it will only strengthen slowly i suspect as conditions still are far from grea ton its northern side but a strong TS is looking a good possiblty IF it can move inbetween those two upper lows just right, theres probably about a 50-100 miles leadway and ther eis also some land nearby in the form of the Caribbean islands.

THe shear could be a problem for this system later on though, will have to watch the upper lows careful as much as Chris itslef.

[Gray-Wolf]

I very much suspect that , over the next 5 or 6 hrs, we'll start to see a more complete system develop (as convection max's out ) and a start to the rotation into more of a 'ring' (as opposed to two 'blobs' ) of convection. The Steering charts are a handy addition to the armchair chasers armoury (cheers Kold) but make worrying veiwing so far as Chris is concerned.

Edited August 1, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Vis. Sat. Loop looking good for closed circulation now. Though I'd like a little more convection please!

[Paranoid]

Are there any satellite images of Chris yet? By the way, what are the SSTs in the gulf at the moment, because if they're similar to last year, then Chris could get major hurrricane status if he moves into the gulf.

[Gray-Wolf]

Are there any satellite images of Chris yet? By the way, what are the SSTs in the gulf at the moment, because if they're similar to last year, then Chris could get major hurrricane status if he moves into the gulf.

If you go to the NOAA Hurricane site you'll find 'Chris' on Floater 1. If you go to the Sat. images from the info bar on the left side of the page you can explore the Atlantic side of things from the polar geostationary sat.s too. Have fun!

[kold weather]

Right recon is in Chris right now and is finding winds in the 47kts at flight level which suggests winds at the surface may well be up in the 45-50mph, and when the next advisory for Chris comes out expect it to a 45-50mph tropical storm.

anyway structure is looking pretty good for the moment with some weak badning seemingly starting to appear as well as some outflow on the southern mass of convection. Convective coverage has shurnk but this happens as you get the most stable part of the day the Durinal max. Expect that to increase overnight as pressure drops a touch in respinse to Durinal min occuring. Still its got the bases there and when convection next flares we may well see Chris get int othe 60-70mph range.

Models are still pretty uncertain about exactly where to take it though they still have the general WNW direction but as I said in a post before, exactly what direction will make a large difference to the storm eventually. Quite a few are still crossing it over the island however the NHc are still sticking with the northern solution and worringly i do think they are right which would put the track eventually towards Florida. Even more worringly the SHIPS models are suggesting that Chris could well be upto 56kts by the time it reaches the Bahamas which would make Chris a strong TS.

If it does take the more northern route then there is a real risk of a hurricane crossing into S.Florida possibly with the same sort of results as with hurricane Katrina when it crossed as a cat-1 and i equally can see Chris being a cat-1 by the time it gets to that area of the world...and if it does take the S.Flroida route...then the loop current may just get another test providing shear is low. It's a long long way off yet but we could at the very least looking at a monster Gulf storm down the line, but for now the focus is on the islands to the WSW of Chris and the Bahamas. This needs to be watched very very closely, esp as Rita and Katirna both took a fairly similar route as being progged by the NHC. I'm not saying that Chris will become like those but at the very least that area is well known to power up storms fast.

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks K.w.! I was very surprised last year at the speed that some of the storms developed as the hit that warm water loop. I haven't access to SST's in the Gulf itself to see how things are at the mo. (and if another warm 'plume' is developing) have you any links that you could post for us giving a more detailed peep at the Gulf? Ta.

Ian.

[kold weather]

Here's a link I like to use for SST's which also has a log of past images

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom...t_list_gom.html

Prehaps more importantly is to find heat content maps though i don't have them in my faves right now, this is probably more important then sea surface temps as Kat and rita proved last year on the current.

ps, looks like Chris is forming a CDO now as well with a large convective burst over the center, very impressive looking storm ,could be a hurricane by 48hrs time if it keeps organising like it is, good outflow on the S.side, strong deep convection, most impressive and -prehaps the best looknig storm this year!

By the way, there will almost certainly be the need for TS warnings in PR as well as the Virigin islands overnight

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks for that Kold. That recent burst (7:15 tonight) is blossoming into something quite impressive. I think I'll be in bed before it max's out but I'd agree that its starting to look very promising (esp. the promise of low shears for the near future).

I think I'll be getting my visual reminder as to why I love these things very soon! When you compare those recent cells in N.W. France (and their development) to an afternoon in the Caribbean...........well

EDIT: I bet it's a bit breezy and wet (with the odd bang/flash) in St. Johns right now!

Edited August 1, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[Kain]

Wow Chris has really made a run for it!

The latest loop is really showing a burst of convection. Are though little islands on it's west side inhabited?

Kain

[Mondy]

Here's the radar out of Martinique, which i've been watching on and off all day. Currently, it's 100 times better organised than 9am this morning.

[kold weather]

I suspect we'll find hurricane Chris in 24hrs Kain. The islands are in the main inhabited, esp PR which could wel lbe on the stronger southern side of this system. NHC latest forecast has this upto 45mph but its much likely to be in the 50mph, maybe even getting close to 60mph in the deep convection near the center bcause recon has found flight level winds at 64kts, suggesting possibly upto 60mph at the surface, new data will be fed into the next advisory.

By the way if I was on the Virgin islands I'd be very worried right, also if i was in PR, cuba and dare I say it even S.Florida and the keys I'd be watching this system extremely closely, track looks quite akin to hurricane Rita though I do think the models are nig eneral taking the system too far south. given its very good structure, impressive outflow on both sides, even an attempt at a CDO occuring. This needs watching because eventually it may find itslefint othe extremely favorable gulf of Mexico and Chris being quite a small storm it'd mean it'd pull down its pressure and have very high winds pretty fast, the only saving grace for a small centered system is that they can be easier destroyed but right now it looks like only some shear and the islands can stop Chris becoming quite a strong hurricane.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Is this a helpful bookmark?

What are the chances of shear breaking up the system? I would think Cuba and the Islands would weaken it a lot but not destroy Chris enough that it could not reform over GoM. Shear would be the biggest threat to this going hurricane IMO, taking account its on track to the bathtub.

[summer blizzard]

000

WTNT63 KNHC 012106

TCUAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006

505 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

BASED ON A RECENT REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN CHRIS HAVE INCREASED TO

NEAR 60 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY...

PRIMARILY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO CHANGES

IN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

Edited August 1, 2006 by summer blizzard