Tropical Depression Chris

[kold weather]

It may well be the case Crimsoe what your seeing a few outflow boundaires, i'm not sure as I've not seen Chris for a about an hour but give nthere is now some shear nearby Chris some outflow boundaries could be possible in that NW section which is another wign that its having a hard time.

however Chris is till moving WNW and wil lcontinue to do so for a good 36hrs when it may bne flattened to just north of due west as the stronger ridge builds in. What you say Mondy is possible for sure but the system would have to get further north then its presently progged because any northerly movement in the gulf will probably be restricted to 24hrs before the ridge re-builds.

Anyway presently awaiting recon's next pass through the Ne section of the storm which is where the fresh convection has gone up recently and where the coldest cloud tops and best condtions are presently. If they don't find 60-65kts at flight level then expect Chris to be reduced to 55-60mph.

[Gray-Wolf]

Back to Chris (what a crap name for a hurricane btw )....

Unless He's a she called Chrissy (which reveals my inner reluctance to accept him male.....she was quite stormy at times too..)

The Convection (on the outer bands) to the North of Him would suggest that any weakness will soon be overtaken by this 'new blood'. I'm still quite confident that I'll wake up to Cat1 or 2 Chris tomorrow.

Edited August 2, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[Mondy]

Yeah, got you kold. Just a sitting and waiting game at the mo.

Hi GW.

You mentioned the SST's earlier - hadn't checked them until now.

GFDL (which was the model i used most last year, and seemingly had a well received report after the season finished) has Chris farting about the Caribbean and GoM, bit of a spinner really. Although once passing all land mass, still appears to be "intact" - which is when the warm open seas may rejuvinate it..

It's all too distant and conjecture at the mo...

[crimsone]

Quite possibly KW. I guess I've a little more reading to do - every year is a new learning curve. lol

One thing is sure though - as systems go, this one is proving to be quite interesting! Those SSTs ahead of it are pretty hot though. 30+ degrees!

I'll keep an eye out for the next vortex message on the NHC site. One thing I would like to ask though, is where can I get info on the current position of recon? I recall that last year (Wilma particularly), somebody was posting images of the current position and previous path of the recon aircraft. Was it you SnowBear?

Unless He's a she called Chrissy (which reveals my inner reluctance to accept him male

I know the feeling GW. I'm having the same issue with "him" lol.

Edited August 2, 2006 by crimsone

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Enough of the name demolishing. With a name like Chris, it has to be one of power, structure and magnitude

[Gray-Wolf]

Enough of the name demolishing. With a name like Chris, it has to be one of power, structure and magnitude

Magnificence?

The 19:15 image starts to make me wonder how big, I mean in diameter, this system could become. For the past couple of Days Cuba has been a mass of storms come late P.M. and a similar bunch of stuff is there to feed Chris if he starts to untilise it.

Edited August 2, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[kold weather]

Tell me about it Crimsone, every year you learn something new in the tropics. Just when you think you know what a storm is going to do it does something else, its one of the few things in weather where even the experts can be baffled by why something is happening!

GFDL was very good indeed last year Mondy however this years its not been nearly so good and indeed I'm still not sure what the GFDL is seeing to turn it so much to the WSW/SW. Clearly its the ridge that is causing it and a slight turn to the wes tis probable in the next 36hrs but the GFDL is far too extreme. While you should never rule it out completely its worth remembering that in every single run the GFDL has turned it to the WSW by 36hrs, and its been doing that for the last 2 days!!!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I wouldnt go that far GW.

And actually, surprising enough, MrsL calls me Chrissy, so my above statement must be true.

Anyhow...quite an interesting time ahead.

[crimsone]

GFDL (which was the model i used most last year, and seemingly had a well received report after the season finished)

Oooh. It doesn't want to take that track! That one will hurt it!

Of course, if it did and could survive on the other side, and thread the other needle instead (yutacan channel), I'd fear for anybody in the TX/La area.

[Mondy]

I'll keep an eye out for the next vortex message on the NHC site

Hi Crimsone.

The vortex mesages generally appear after this site has hold of them.

Can't remember where i got the url from (was last years and stored for this season), but i'm 100% sure this site displayed the vortex messages before the NHC did...raw data or somfink...

I'm prolly wrong. No doubt somebody like P.K will correct me!

[Mondy]

URNT12 KNHC 022006

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

Pressure down 1mb

A. 02/19:43:30Z

B. 19 deg 47 min N

064 deg 05 min W

C. 850 mb 1483 m

D. 20 kt

E. 234 deg 030 nm

F. 343 deg 028 kt

G. 239 deg 019 nm

H. 1005 mb

I. 18 C/ 1527 m

J. 24 C/ 1527 m

K. 12 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 08

MAX FL WIND 47 KT SE QUAD 17:35:40 Z

LIGHTNING OBSERVED ON EAST SIDE OF STORM

[crimsone]

47 KT - here comes a downgrade then

[Gray-Wolf]

Do you think that the net gain in energy a ,say 2c increase in sea level temp gives a storm is balenced out by a lessening of cloud top temps by a matching -2 c ? I kinda think that doesn't work and that the extra 'punch' things like warm loops give to a system allows a much greater verticle development which equates to much more than a mere -2c when it tops 'out'. If I'm halfway right then storm intensities could increase at an accellerated rate because of this 'extra' imbalence (as we saw a couple of times last year) when the storm is given an extra 'kick'. If Chris goes for the straights and fits through then there is a pool of 'hot' on the exit and then the whole gulf coast has its own 'belt' of 'Cat5 hotness'.

[kold weather]

Wind has been found at 54kts winds at the surface, so it does appear to have weakened slightly but I'd still guess that the NHC would only take it down to 60mph. Pressure has dropped slightly and is still in the process of dropping given the last dropsonde found pressure at 1006mbs to the NE of the center,a ture pressure in the true center would probably be about 1003mbs right now I'd guess. I suppose a good test as to whether it relaly is getting better orginaised would be too see that western side getting larger again, don't be suprised to see Chris getting clsoe to hurricane status again tonight becausre the NW segment already looks more healthy then a few hours ago and pressure should drop now that the shear has slughtly eased again.

(intresting post GW, generally use the theory that 1F sea tmep increase=5mph wind increase.)

[crimsone]

I understand your theory GW. I still remember Wilmas 2 mile wide eye that was almost small enough to be measured on the Fujita scale rather than the Saffir Simpson scale.

I don't expect anything like that from Chris, but (s)he could intensify qute rapidly IMHO.

Edited August 2, 2006 by crimsone

[Mondy]

Well, if this isn't the making of an eye, then i dunno what it is..

[crimsone]

It certainly looks like it - A pointed CDO with light concentric rings around it... ..."anything can happen in the next half hour" as said by the puppets (can't remember which puppets though! lol)

Edited August 2, 2006 by crimsone

[SnowBear]

.......I recall that last year (Wilma particularly), somebody was posting images of the current position and previous path of the recon aircraft. Was it you SnowBear?

....

Yes, was me crimsone, will do again this year, but those plot maps cannot be got on the net as I was doing them manually from the in flight data myself, the raw data being used for the plots etc.

Wont do as yet for Chris, is quite time consuming, waiting, getting the data, plotting, making the map, optimising for viewing here, posting etc, but will do as the storm becomes stronger and a more definite track seen in the coming days.

[Mondy]

Good recon help for you here, SB

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/c...20060802N1.html

Eye!

Edited August 2, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[Kain]

CDO??

Whats that guys? (I'm still a noob hurricane watcher)

Kain

[Mondy]

In short, Kane, Central Dense Overcast, the thickest area of thunderstorms, around the centre.

[P.K.]

Good recon help for you here, SB

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/c...20060802N1.html

Eye!

That is the jet that flies high in the atmosphere to help the models rather than the one which flies into the system to sample how strong it is.

Edited August 2, 2006 by P.K.

[Thundersquall]

"anything can happen in the next half hour" as said by the puppets (can't remember which puppets though! lol)

Stingraaaay .... Stingray! Da-da-da-da-da!

I think that's the puppet show

Edited August 2, 2006 by Thundersquall

[wolves78]

Stingraaaay .... Stingray! Da-da-da-da-da!

I think that's the puppet show

this system IMO will just make it to the gulf of mexico. texas look out in 4 days or so this could be the begining of a decent season from a weather point of view

[crimsone]

Check out the image at 2115

It appears that it's going to have initially a large eye? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html