Tropical Depression Chris

[Paranoid]

Last year was an extremely active system. By this time in 2005 we'd have 5 tropical storms, one hurricane, one major hurricane and one category 5.

Edited August 3, 2006 by Paranoid

[parmenides3]

NOAA are due to release their new forecast for the 'busy' period on the 8th. Will they continue to predict an 'active' season? The generally Northward movement of warm sea surface temperatures could produce some more 'dramatic' patterns in August/ September. There's clearly been something missing from the required mix so far, as it's easy enough to see the cloud movements across the Atlantic from E>W, but nobody's stirring the pot.

[crimsone]

It is a shame that Chris is weakening. The projected track was for Chris to pass the Florida straits just like Katrina did last year and enter the Golf of Mexico which would have spelt big trouble for the US coast.

. A shame?!?! Surely it's a good thing that it weakened if it was set to cause a major risk to the US coast on the same kind of path as Katrina?

LOL. I'm sure that Chris has just taken his coat off readdy for the real work . Watching the LLC (Chris) split away from the MLC (Chris' coat) looks really quite surreal on Mondy's radar link.

Edited August 3, 2006 by crimsone

[kold weather]

This next 48hrs are going to be very intresting to see ghow Chris re-acts to the changing set-up that is occuring now, its still over some shear right now but it is progged to move out of this, foward speed should move it away from the ULL that is presently giving it shear over the enxt few hours.

This is going to be omne of those 50/50 systems where it could die r sustian itslef, its gonig to have a hard time for a while as both dry air and shear will cause problems. If it does survive the next 48hrs thenthere is still a fair chance of a hurricane eventually in the gulf but right now that is ages away and I'd say it will have a very hard time survivng the next 36-48hrs. The key is just how vigarous that LLC can stay, the longe rit keeps going the more time it'll have and the greater the chance of something down the raod but Chris is on life support right now, wil lbe TD Chris next advisory.

Certainly the de-coupling was quite amamzing to see, and shows what I mean about shear in global warming, you can have super hot heat but if you get a decent shear streak then it'll rip systems apart, even a srong hurricane would have had hard time handling the sort of sheare Chris got last night.

(ps, remember the discussion 2 days ago about chris having to go between the two upper lows, well its got to close to the eastern one and has shown why it had to avoid it.)

[crimsone]

remember the discussion 2 days ago about chris having to go between the two upper lows, well its got to close to the western one and has shown why it had to avoid it.)

Indeed KW. I recall that I also suuggested that Th environment to Chris's NW quadrant was becoming hostile a day or two ago also.

When you really think about it, it's suprising that none of us expected to see it happen. lol

[summer blizzard]

Actually, i did expect shear to weaken the system as i have stated before.

Also, looking at the shear maps, it seems that there is going to be no more problems with shear from tonight however there does seem to be a lot of dry air which is inhibiting convection.

I still think that Florida will be hit by a strong Tropical Storm/Category 1 hurricane and that rapid strenthening will occur in the Gulf Of Mexico.

[kold weather]

Indeed ther eis dry air about nearby SB to it west which Chris will have to go through if its got any chance of making the gulf. Shear should slowly ease and is already starting to relax a touch as it breifly gets into a more faovrable area over the next 6-9hrs. Not only will it have the dry air ahead of it as a problem but also there is a very real risk that its inflow will be disrupted by DR and also hatai which will cut of its moisture supply even more. Still the slightly more favorable condtions over the next few hours does seem to be allowing some slight convection to flare-up on the SE'most section of Chris, something to watch to see if the increase in convection continues to formfurther north closer to the center, it'll have to happen to give this system the best chance of development.

It all depends on Chris exact track and speed over the next 24hrs, if it can lift some more then it may only see a slight reduction in inflow. Then it'd have to deal withthe dry air, something that will restrain most deep convection bar the odd weak flare-up. It should leave the worst of the shear behind however the main problem is the lack of deep convection, without it the naked swirl will eventually weaken and die away.

I'd take a guess and say if it survives the next 36-48hrs then the chances of a stronger system in the gulf where condtions are much favorable is quite high however the real question for now is, will it survive the next 36hrs, as before I'd say its very much 50/50, still on life-support. ven if it does get downgraded to a tropical wave again it must be watched because we all know the gulf can power up storms pretty fast.

[kold weather]

Also to add to my last post its intresting to note the SHIPS model (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme Model) which forecast intensity for tropical cyclones is now forecasting it to become a hurricane by 120hrs time when its in the gulf, which should be a sign that while it's in a hard place right now, it could find itslef in much more favorable condtions, even if it does die presently the wave could yet re-form in the gulf, and of course Chris still has got a strong LLC even now so its far from a foregone conclusion that the system will die away.

[Paranoid]

If Chris weakens to TD strength and then restrengthens, would that be tropical storm Debby or still Chris, or does it have to weaken to below Td strength?

[kold weather]

Here is where it gets a little tricky Paranoid. It'll keep the name Chris even if the system does beocme an open wave. If the wave dies completely or a new wave is the dominant wave then it'll called a different name.

Two great examples were Ivan and Katrina. Ivan re-formed from the same area of energy that formed the first Ivan, so they still called it Ivan. While Td-10 died away and merged with a new wave, which was later upgraded to Td-12 and later Katrina.

Chris certainly is proving to be a very intresting system, and proves just how powerful deep shear can be, we got a good example of just how vunerable these systems can be. Also as I've said in the alst few posts, don't rule out Chris doing something yet, but for the next 35-48hrs as I keep saying, its going to have a hard time, get through this and Chris may well have a shot at something stronger again, but who knows whether Chris will get that far, its very uncertain and for that reason the NHC aren't going to kill off Chris in the long term section of thier forecast.

(Next few hours expect a slight upward trend in convection amounts as it starts to catch up with the more faovrable environment and the systems inflow still looks pretty good in that no land has cut it off yet, if that can keep going it might be enough to sustain it far enough to the west to get it close to the promised land of the gulf, but RH values over the Bahamas are only at 55% according to last reports, so the air is pretty dry about 3-400 miles to the west.)

[SnowBear]

Certainly is an interesting system Kold!

Last frame or two on this loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html shows new small areas of convection in the S/SE area of the circulation, the track also still seems consistantly marginally north of the forecast track for the centre, my thoughts now actually return to the original I had (after the surprise overnight which kinda threw me quite a bit!), staying east or possibly tracking over the island chains for now of Turks, Caicos, strength, heck I dunno..possible Cat1 for the Keys...Chris the Magician I think we'll name this one, what can it pull put of the hat next!

[Gray-Wolf]

I've seen that convection to the SSE and , because it has closed circulation still, this will wrap around and form a complete circuit in time. If it arises after 2 days I'm putting a 't' on the end of it's name.......

By the way , closer to home, I love the 'zipper' the meto vis. sat. shows over the centre of the UK at the mo'.

Edited August 3, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[derby4life]

Certainly is an interesting system Kold!

Last frame or two on this loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html shows new small areas of convection in the S/SE area of the circulation, the track also still seems consistantly marginally north of the forecast track for the centre, my thoughts now actually return to the original I had (after the surprise overnight which kinda threw me quite a bit!), staying east or possibly tracking over the island chains for now of Turks, Caicos, strength, heck I dunno..possible Cat1 for the Keys...Chris the Magician I think we'll name this one, what can it pull put of the hat next!

where's the dominican repulic on that run please guy's ....got a mate from work there at the mo

[summer blizzard]

000

WTNT33 KNHC 032042

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006

500 PM AST THU AUG 03 2006

...CHRIS AT MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT LIKELY TO

WEAKEN...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF

THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS

ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE

ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED

ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN

12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT 195

MILES...315 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...

AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A

DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR EARLY ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE

WAS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES

WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF

PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE

OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND

NORTHERN HAITI THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.7 N...68.2 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[Trancemaster1966]

It is a shame that Chris is weakening. The projected track was for Chris to pass the Florida straits just like Katrina did last year and enter the Golf of Mexico which would have spelt big trouble for the US coast.

Oh well, something else will pop up soon but it has to be said that this hurricane season looks a lot quieter than expected.

Karyo

Sorry Karyo but you say it's a shame??? While I love my weather and I'm sure, guaranteed that a hurricane will hit somewhere, sometime soon in the season....It is never a "shame" when they claim lives, devastate towns, cities, etc....Is that what you want to happen?

Can't buy into that philosophy....Sorry!!!

Edited August 3, 2006 by Trancemaster1966

[Kain]

Latest sat shows quite abit of convection kicking off!

Kain

Edited August 3, 2006 by Kane

[summer blizzard]

769

URNT12 KNHC 032205

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 03/21:50:00Z

B. 20 deg 37 min N

068 deg 11 min W

C. NA mb NA m

D. 45 kt

E. 49 deg 028 nm

F. 144 deg 043 kt

G. 048 deg 025 nm

H. EXTRAP 1011 mb

I. 22 C/ 335 m

J. 24 C/ 337 m

K. 24 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 1

O. 0.02 / 7 nm

P. AF308 0603A CHRIS OB 10

MAX FL WIND 43 KT NE QUAD 21:42:00 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

No change in pressure from the last recon however there is some impressive convection occuring, therefore i think we can expect slight strengthening overnight, most likely to moderate Tropical Storm strength.

Edited August 3, 2006 by summer blizzard

[kold weather]

Okay I'm happy at last nights call for a flare-up in convection. Now however convection is dieing for two main reasons, firstly its still being sheared quite abit, if it wasn't last nights blow-up would have covered the entire system however the shea ris even killing that blow-up. Also of note is how DR is now interupting the inflow of Chris, in other words its moisture supply is being cut off by the hilly parts of Hispaniola.

Still Chris is a fighter and is still hanging ont othe TS winds, howevr given the way the flare-up is dieing now I'd say that Chris probably is a TD again as recon has only found one wind report that would suggest Chris is a TS, and that wa sin that large flare-up.

The problem for Chris is that the ULL to its east is also heading west, its following it and unless Chris picks up speed its gonig to keep being constantly sheared to bits, thats why the NHC are keeping Chris as a Td/weak TS even by the time it reaches the gulf. IF it was to get into more favorable set-up in the gulf, then it may well flare-up and become quite strong because the sturcture is still in place. The thing is wil lthe shear and all other negative factors kill Chris off before it gets the chance to sample anything better. So in all likelyhood its a tropical depression now and I'll admit I was a touch suprised it survived as a TS overnight!

[Paranoid]

Still, Chris had a good run for it's money, it survived a lot longer than most storms would in those conditions.

[kold weather]

It's still doing quite well considering all the negative factors it has right now, dry air voer the Bahamas will be injested soon enough, the inflow from the south, the main energy source has been reduced by dominican republic and ther eis stil lsome decent northerly shear from the ULL thats now to its NNE, with the northerly shear being clearly evident on the water vapour, notice all that water vapor from the ULL diving down towards Chris, thats the shear:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

It's gonig to take a good 24hrs I'd say to get that shear out of the way to the west thoug hthe ULL does seem to be moving faster then Chris which may not be a bad thing for Chris. However the next 24hrs are goign to be very hard indeed for Chris, the flare-up last night gave him a little more time however the enxt 24hrs could easily kill Chris off, or at least leave him very weak. Stil can't rule out anything yet and re-strengthening could occur once the shear start to ease off a little more over the next few days. whatever happens Chris is quite a fighter!

[summer blizzard]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...tic/winds/shear

Looking at the latest shear map, it looks as though shear should relax in around six hours, afterwards, it all depends on how fast the system over Florida moves west.

000

WTNT33 KNHC 040833

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 15

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006

500 AM AST FRI AUG 04 2006

...TENACIOUS CHRIS BARELY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND

FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED

ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS

IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL

STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY

WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF

HISPANIOLA FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL

STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE

WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR

PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45

MILES... 70 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM

TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT WAS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES

ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE SOUTHEAST

BAHAMAS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 6

INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TODAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...20.9 N...70.9 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA

Edited August 4, 2006 by summer blizzard

[kold weather]

That shear map doesn't look amazingly accurate to be honest Sb, ther eis way more then 15kts of northerly shear on Chris right now, in fact the true figure is probably double that,seriously to shear the storms as well as what is happening your talking in the 25-35kt sort of range.

Worth noting as well that everything is moving westwards, including the favorable condtions. While Chris is starting to speed up it wil lstill have a good 18-30hrs before it gets into the better environemnt, going to take more then a few hours given the latest water vapor shows the ULL pretty much on top of the system, look at my last post and the link, the two ULL's are clearly visable to the WNW and NNE.

So Chris will continue to get sheared for a while yet I reckon, though the inflow should eventually start to recover once past DR/Hatai, and eventually it should find itslef in slightly more moist air as it speeds up towards the col inbetween the two upper lows, one of which is going to lift over Florida today which would, if Chris can get a move on, lead the way toa very favorable gulf of Mexico.

Just the question is, will Chris survive that long???

[SnowBear]

where's the dominican repulic on that run please guy's ....got a mate from work there at the mo

Sorry, only just seen your requeat for a map of the area...

http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp?formt...y=santo+domingo

The red star marks the Dominican Republic capital, zoom out a little and you will see a chain of islands to the north of Haiti/Dominican Republic, the Turks/Caicos, that is roughly where Chris is heading for now.

Edit: Looking at the RGB/Rainbow loops, there is quite a bit of shear still cutting across that area from the NNE, very strong, Chris will have to be beside Cuba before escaping that.

Edited August 4, 2006 by SnowBear

[kold weather]

Chris has been downgraded due to lack of of TS force winds due to recon:

WTNT33 KNHC 041138

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006

800 AM AST FRI AUG 04 2006

...CHRIS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND

FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED

ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS

IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THESE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE

DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

AT 8 AM...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST

OF HISPANIOLA FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST OR ABOUT 20

MILES... 30 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...AND THIS

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT CHRIS HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR CHRIS TO REGAIN TROPICAL

STORM STATUS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT WAS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES

ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE SOUTHEAST

BAHAMAS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 6

INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TODAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...21.2 N...71.1 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA

Looking very rough according to visable sat imagery, could well be gone in the next 12hrs if the LLC keeps slackening like it presently is, barely visable on the visables, i think Chris is gonig to be gone soon, unles sit gets some new convection shortly OR if shear does ease off however thats not forecasted for a good 12-30hrs. It's not quite gone yet mind you so it does need to be watched still just in case something does let up but shear is still strong and the dry air is causing problems as well as the inflow being moderated by the Dominican Republic.

[SnowBear]

This is a nice loop for rainfall amounts....called a Funktop.....brighter the colours, higher the rainfall...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-ft.html

FT Funktop Funktop enhancement - developed by Ted Funk for assistance with Precipitation analysis

Will be interesting to see a full hurricane on this type of loop.