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Tropical Depression Chris


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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

It's only a low center, not a TC center, as Chris is now an open Tropical Wave.

For interest though, Here's the wind shear map...

20060805.1900.goes-12.shear.wind.cimss.x.jpg

...and here's the 850 mb winds...

20060805.1800.12.dmsp_tpw_12hr.850wind.ATL.jpg

I suspect the low center may currently be right in the middle (in both axis) of the cuban landmassat about 22-23N, but I'm no expert and so can't be sure.

Edited by crimsone
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Having had a closer look, i think that you are right in that the center is directly over Cuba however i must disagree with you about Chris being an open Tropical Wave, as i believe that it is still a Tropical Depression, whether the NHC supports me is another matter entirely.

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

Possibly, SB..you also did say Chris would develop into something altogether nasty - Cat 2/3/4??

It's maybe best we leave the real experts to do the job properly and the rest of us onlookers can pass comment/judgement when needed.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I still expect a category 4 hurricane making landfall in Texas, that is assuming that the Yukatan Peninsula does not pose a problem.

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
Possibly, SB..you also did say Chris would develop into something altogether nasty - Cat 2/3/4??

It's maybe best we leave the real experts to do the job properly and the rest of us onlookers can pass comment/judgement when needed.

Oh, I don't know Mondy. Even for us non-experts, informed speculation is half the fun, as long as one isn't actually trying to come across as an expert and that the line between speculation and expertise is clear (which pretty much seems to be KW vs everybody else at the mo! lol)

Personally, I think that the idea of Chris making a Cat4 landfall on texas, given Chris's current status, is a bit of a fanciful idea, but at the same time I am perfectly happy to be suprised (with the provision that people don't get hurt of course).

Edit: Speaking of experts, the NHC have once more stated that they do not see that any regeneration of Chris has occured , and that convection seen today is merely a result of normal diaurnal heating of the Cuban landmass. That statement could well be Chris' official death cert, as if it is their opinion that Chris is a dead system, I would think that they may well opt to call the next system Debbie, even if it is formed from Chris's remnant low? As the remnant isn't listed as a special feature OR as a wave on their latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (805 PM EDT - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATW.../052321.shtml?), I can only assume that they either made a rare and substantial mistake, or that they now consider Chris to be completely dead.

Edited by crimsone
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

Look at that loop, while some convectional heating is aiding the process, the sea is also spawning convection, also i am not so sure that the system (tropical depression or wave) has made landfall, the centre appears to be moving just to the north of the Cuban coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Morning all ! the NOAA flaoter 1 vis shows what appears to be a closed circulation just off the N. coast of cuba and below Florida about to enter the Gulf. If Chris doesn't re-fire up today then I guess he's gone (The gulf being equivalent to the difibulator which is fully charged and ready to go!!) Remember what the warm pool through the straights did to Rita last year in terms of intensification and be mindful that Chris's remnants will be over it during the hottest part of today (Sunday). Come the 7:15 vis . sat. image if there isn't a mass of convection going up I'm laying his bones to rest !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The lastest satelite shows a very small mass of convection, although reintensification could occur.

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

Must admit, looking at the loops etc it seems to me any circulation that was there has drifted along the northern coast of Cuba rather than across the island itself...very messy though........interesting area for me with that in mind at the moment is the area SW of the Keys

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

Edit: I dunno, maybe, maybe not, a wait and see I think. Looking some more it looks like Chris has gone altogether really.

Gulf of Mexico itself is getting quite turbulent, wouldnt be surprised in some ways if there is a system build within this area without external influence.

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