Tropical Storm Fabio

[summer blizzard]

000

WTPZ42 KNHC 010848

TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006

200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006

FABIO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB

AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY

WILL REMAIN 35 KT. FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS...FABIO IS EXPECTED

TO REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE

FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL

INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENTERING A DRIER MID LEVEL

ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL

MODELS SUGGEST THAT FABIO COULD WEAKEN OR EVEN DISSIPATE SOONER

THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INTENSITY

FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT

INDICATES A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING LATER IN THE FORECAST...

SHOWING SOME RESPECT FOR THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/12. FABIO IS FORECAST TO

REMAIN ON A STEADY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SOUTH OF A

STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS

LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED MORE

WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS CLOSE TO

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 14.8N 124.6W 35 KT

12HR VT 01/1800Z 15.2N 126.4W 40 KT

24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.7N 129.0W 45 KT

36HR VT 02/1800Z 16.2N 131.7W 45 KT

48HR VT 03/0600Z 16.5N 134.0W 45 KT

72HR VT 04/0600Z 16.5N 138.0W 35 KT

96HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W 30 KT

120HR VT 06/0600Z 16.5N 148.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART