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Tropical Storm Fabio


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    000

    WTPZ42 KNHC 010848

    TCDEP2

    TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006

    200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006

    FABIO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL

    HOURS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB

    AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY

    WILL REMAIN 35 KT. FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS...FABIO IS EXPECTED

    TO REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE

    FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL

    INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENTERING A DRIER MID LEVEL

    ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL

    MODELS SUGGEST THAT FABIO COULD WEAKEN OR EVEN DISSIPATE SOONER

    THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INTENSITY

    FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT

    INDICATES A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING LATER IN THE FORECAST...

    SHOWING SOME RESPECT FOR THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/12. FABIO IS FORECAST TO

    REMAIN ON A STEADY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SOUTH OF A

    STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS

    LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED MORE

    WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS. THE

    OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS CLOSE TO

    THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 01/0900Z 14.8N 124.6W 35 KT

    12HR VT 01/1800Z 15.2N 126.4W 40 KT

    24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.7N 129.0W 45 KT

    36HR VT 02/1800Z 16.2N 131.7W 45 KT

    48HR VT 03/0600Z 16.5N 134.0W 45 KT

    72HR VT 04/0600Z 16.5N 138.0W 35 KT

    96HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W 30 KT

    120HR VT 06/0600Z 16.5N 148.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

    $$

    FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

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