Out Of Africa

[Gray-Wolf]

I think Chris may be done for so I've been looking to Africa for our next lead and some of the 'disturbances' rumblin' off the continent at the mo' are truely massive. Looking at Cuba's recent convection and Chris's efforts it would seem the the stage is set for their imminent arrival. The 'front edge' of the mass flowing into the Atlantic is just in shot on the Caribbean images and so later today we can get an idea of how things are though the first mass looks a little too far south and will plough into S. America. 2 or 3 days down the line is a very different story!

[kold weather]

While I've stil lgot my eye on Chris this mass of convection just to the west of Africa is intresting, however its all part of the ITCZ, so really its not that impressive given most of that convection is not down the wave but simply due to the ICTZ. A better test for this wave will be when it reaches 30-40W.

Still this wave feature is one to watch as the models have been constantly developing it over the last few days and I do think something may well eventually come from this system but its got a long way before it becomes anything like organised enough for a TD.

The wave infront of it does have to be weatched as the models have been forecasting it to possibly form down the road though I'm less conifdent about that prediction. Still that new wave coming off from Africa does need watching very closely indeed, esp as some models are showing it developing a close LP in the next 48hrs however I personally thinking the models are being far too progressive in forming any low give nhow messy the convection is right now.

[kold weather]

Okay, broad area of convection now is off-Africa heading slowly but surely westwards along the inter tropical convergance zone, with possibly a weak circulation already present however there is no signs of a low lveel cirulcation. It needs to be watched down the road this system as it may well become our next tropical depression, though I must amdit I do think the models are developing this system too quickly, including the CMC 0z which develops a hurricane like feature in just 96hrs!