Invest 91l

[Mondy]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...mp;STYLE=tables

Another Chris, a fish spinner or monster? Who knows..

GFDL has it hurricane strength in +114hrs.

Edited August 6, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[JRMcLeod]

So is it officially a Hurricane?? Is it tracking West? I'm not sure about this but is it common for Hurricanes to be so close to Africa?? I thought they formed more towards the East Coast of the Americas??

[Mondy]

Have a read of this..

It's not anywhere near hurricane status yet. Has to become a Tropical Depression, then Tropical Storm then a hurricane. Whole thing might break up (like Chris did)..

Certainly, activity is rolling off the West African coast at the moment:

Edited August 6, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[Guest Mr_S]

Fantastic Good start to the day!! heres hoping for a cat 5

[Paranoid]

GDFL brings this up to around Category 1 strength with flight level winds at 85.2 knots and sea level pressure at 991mbar. Then again,it said Alberto would reach category 3

Edited August 6, 2006 by Paranoid

[markp1980]

When does the hurricane season start? is it now?

[summer blizzard]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...tic/winds/shear

Looks like a light shear environment is shead of this system and i would not be suprised if a Tropical Depression were to form in the next 48 hours.

[Mondy]

Since i first posted about 91L a couple of hours ago, it really is getting better organised all the time.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Debby mentioned soon.

Edited post..

Doesn't look so good now, as per my earlier post

Edited August 6, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[crimsone]

Has to become a Tropical Depression, then Tropical Storm then a hurricane

This may be a facetious question, or perhaps even pedantic, but is it not the case that systems can occasionaly gather the required wind speed before forming a closed circulation to be classified as tropical storms without ever being officially considered as a TD?

[Mondy]

or perhaps even pedantic

Jeez. You related to OON or somfink?!

Anyway, as of right now, the convection is firing again(the images above show)..defo needs watched this system. Floater 2 is now covering the mass B)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[crimsone]

Jeez. You related to OON or somfink?!

There may be a very distant connection, who knows? :lol:

[kold weather]

okay got to breif, but looks like presently some shear is over with the center a good deal to the east with the main lump of convection to the west, much akin to what we saw with Chris though invest 91Lis no-where near as organised as Chris was.

Still while the wave is under shear right now it could find itslef in a better place down the road, esp when it may eventually find itslef getting close to the Caribbean. For now while the models are intresting they are pretty much useless without a proper center, however while most models keep this invest weak thanks to shear, there is always a chance in these set-ups for development.

[crimsone]

The NHC are now stating that a Tropical Depression could form in a day or two from a low pressure system about 1400 miles east of the Windward Islands.

[Gray-Wolf]

It does appear to have closed circulation at the mo' so I guess as the days convection fires up that it may gain status. As has been pointed out there is an awful lot pouring off Africa at the mo', it may just trace out the ITCZ but to me it has a 'flow' to it so plenty of chances for closed circulations to form as they progress west IMO.

[crimsone]

Seeing that only GW has had anything to say on this today, lol. I'll add the latest words of the NHC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N40W...OR

ABOUT 1100 NM EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...MOVING

WEST NEAR 15 KT. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY

LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER

TODAY OR TOMORROW.

[MAF]

Seeing that only GW has had anything to say on this today, lol. I'll add the latest words of the NHC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE....ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER

TODAY OR TOMORROW.

thanks Monds. am watching the developements via your posts.

[crimsone]

It's probably about time for an updated image too :lol:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...mp;STYLE=tables

A shear map and an 850HPa map may also be of interest - just to be a little more thorough :lol: lol (I'm so glad that posting an oversize image breaks the tabling only in your own post, not the entire thread!)...

[Mondy]

Seeing that only GW has had anything to say on this today, lol.

That's probably because all models have washed their hands of 91L at the moment :lol:

I've been watching the system/path on and off, but frankly, it's been struggling at times...just watch and see, i guess :lol:

The current pic is nothing like yesterday:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg

Interestingly, the area(s) near to (or soon to be entering?) The Caribbean Sea have fired up again:

Edited August 7, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[kold weather]

Models don't seem to be liking this system much at all because of the impact of a dipping upper level low (remember Chris?) and this system will inflict shear. Plus you've not got much in the way of decent Voricity at lower levels to get the convection to spark enoughand its not that suprising that the models aren't doing much with it, mind you the GFDL has the center a good 100 miles away from where it actually is so should be put to one side.

Still for now shear isn't that bad, its got a LLC it seems according to obs and sat loops with some slight banding features even evident in the northern section showing the low is developing. No doubt this is why the NHC is warning of tropical development from ths soon, the main problem is simply not enough convection near the center to be upgraded to a TD but its got a good enough structure for sure and therefore the NHC are stating it has a fair chance to develop, evn if shear may well become as much asa problem to this wave as it was to Chris, still this does need to be watched!

[Mondy]

Currently, the shear is less and 91L is regaining a bit of strength:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...s_float2_0.html

Edited August 8, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[crimsone]

She certainly looks a little more organised in that image.

[Gray-Wolf]

That burst of convection is straight over the 'centre' that it was rotating around so maybe now it'll become a T.D. at least!! I can't see things settling to one burst of activity and the next couple of hours will push up more convection.

[crimsone]

Well, it appears it's approaching the Windward Islands at a fair speed now, so it's certainly entering the "arena" so to speak. The NHC has also upped the stakes a little by specifically stating that it could form into a TD tonight or wednesday, which is pretty specific even if it isn't entirely certain.

[kold weather]

Oh I'm very intrested in 91L right now, a nice ball of convection over what looks to be a low pressure, shear has also dropped away as well even further, now shouldn't be much of a problem for further development at least for the next 24-36hrs, very good looking now with some good convection and what looks like some weak banding on its northern side.

NHC are mentioning the possiblty of development very soon, I wouldn't be even slightly suprised to see it upgraded overnight, its a strong contender for Td4 now, very strong.

Beyond this and the SHIPS model continues to strengthen this into Debbie(y) (not sure of spelling!) and brings it close to hurricane status by 120hrs. Now of course the main problem here is going to be its track. Current track takes it away from the shear however if the ULL dips further south then expected or 91L gets further north then expected then it'll do a Chris. However most model tracks either take it on the same sort of path as Chris or in the northern part of the Caribbean sea near or through the islands. Beyond even that and if it gets to that stage a re-curve up the east coast and possibly east coast landfall is possible as the eastern trough set-up establishes itslef in terms of teleconnections. If it misses this weakness then USA will have to be on watch again.

However for now, TD4 looking very likely, good convection over 91L with decent structure and low shear right now plus warmer sea temps mean our next TS is also possible from this system sometime this week unless it runs into a pocket of dry air/shear that wasn't expected by the models.

[crimsone]

Looking at the sattelite loop, It's growing in diameter pretty darned quickly! It's been a fair while since I've seen a blob on visible sattelite double in size in the space of a single run!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Ok, the run starts with very little anyway, but still... It looks impressive