Invest 91l

[Paranoid]

Is there circulation in this storm yet? Also, what defines closed circulation?

[crimsone]

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 195 MILES EAST OF THE

WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT.

Strong Tropical wave?... my rear facing hips is that a strong tropical wave! lol

It does appear that those Islands are the Lesser Antilles - my mistake! sorry. They are the same thing as the "windward islands" though, as far as I can make out. The easternmost one that's currently about to get hammered by the convective mass on the NW s Barbados.

The northern islands in the group are the Leeward Islands, and the southern ones are the Windward Islands.

Edited August 9, 2006 by crimsone

[Gray-Wolf]

I find it hard to concieve that this is just a 'freakish' agglomeration of convection that has no order to it. I think that they are pawing over the same images at the NOAA and scheduling another recon flight. I think that the next 'discussion' by the NOAA will introduce the probability that closed circulation now exists and advise us that recon are on the way to re-investigate.

[crimsone]

Could it be that what we are seeing is a "nearly closed" circulation?

[SnowBear]

768

SXXX50 KNHC 091922

AF302 01DDA INVEST HDOB 26 KNHC

1913 1452N 06000W 00323 0008 085 025 216 212 025 00341 0000000000

1913. 1454N 06000W 00545 0015 106 027 212 182 029 00575 0000000000

1914 1454N 06002W 00821 0036 112 034 208 144 036 00874 0000000000

1914. 1455N 06004W 01128 0052 107 038 190 132 040 01206 0000000000

1915 1456N 06006W 01502 0071 106 045 174 116 047 01606 0000000000

1915. 1457N 06008W 01801 0088 109 049 156 104 049 01923 0000000000

1916 1458N 06010W 02123 0106 099 046 136 096 047 02266 0000000000

1916. 1459N 06011W 02470 0122 085 048 120 096 049 02637 0000000000

1917 1500N 06013W 02801 0143 083 047 094 086 050 02991 0000000000

1917. 1501N 06015W 03149 0170 066 029 074 074 032 03366 0000000000

1918 1502N 06017W 03495 0196 060 031 062 062 033 03739 0000000000

1918. 1502N 06019W 03740 0211 063 033 044 044 034 04001 0000000000

1919 1503N 06021W 03906 0223 063 032 030 030 035 04178 0000000000

1919. 1504N 06023W 03974 0230 060 033 030 030 033 04254 0000000000

1920 1505N 06025W 03961 0234 056 032 026 026 034 04245 0000000000

1920. 1506N 06027W 03963 0234 059 032 024 024 033 04246 0000000000

1921 1508N 06030W 03966 0234 060 030 034 034 032 04250 0000000000

1921. 1509N 06032W 03965 0234 066 029 028 028 030 04249 0000000000

1922 1510N 06034W 03966 0235 061 028 036 012 029 04250 0000000000

1922. 1511N 06036W 04136 0238 066 029 038 005 031 04434 0000000000

;

Edited August 9, 2006 by SnowBear

[crimsone]

I still haven't learned to read those! (yet!) lol

It obviously says something interesting though because part of it is red. I like red! :lol:

Seriously though, is that a standard RECCO observation format, or is it something else? Any decrypting instructions anywhere?

Edited August 9, 2006 by crimsone

[SnowBear]

Sorry :lol:

Basically flight level winds are 45kts+ on those highlighted lines :lol:

1915. 1457N 06008W 01801 0088 109 049 156 104 049 01923 0000000000

This number denotes Flight Level Winds

[crimsone]

Thanks SnowBear :lol: ... Much appreciated.

Those sure are some strong winds at this early stage I must say. This thing, it appears, is a Tropical Storm Debbie if it has a closed circulation. :lol:

Edited August 9, 2006 by crimsone

[Gray-Wolf]

Well their (NOAA) forcast did call for storm force gusts!!!

I would still say that the NOAA's statement and recon are out of date and that a closed circulation exists at present and, if it clears the islands unmolested, will intensify further tomorrow. Whether it makes tropical storm later (or is already) I'm in no way qualified to comment but if someone had shown me those images from RAMSDIS and said they were a Tropical Storm I'd have been happy to accept them as such. (shows the novice that I am!! :lol: )

[summer blizzard]

While the lowest pressure found by recon was 1010mb and it appears that the system is not a surface low, it is producing sustained winds of 60mph, which is consistant with a moderate Tropical Storm.

[crimsone]

Very true Summer Blizzard, but surely with recent development having been so sudden and so quick, it's possible that the recon observations are out of date already, and that there is in fact now a surface low?

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Summer.B., I think that the flight was a little early on the scene and has shown us conditions before the last burst of convection (including that inflow from the east which really set the centre moving) that has occured less than 2 hrs ago. Though I don't know the delay we get from recon to compiling to releasing data but I think our visuals are ahead in real time and as such my eyes are telling me a different story to the data Snow Bear gave. I still think NOAA will update on visaual analysis and advise of another recon flight in their regular discussion.

[SnowBear]

Gray-Wolf, that data is live from the Invest area, 1900z + 1 hour (for BST)

Current miniobs data available is...

040

SXXX50 KNHC 091942

AF302 01DDA INVEST HDOB 28 KNHC

1933 1533N 06121W 06707 0189 257 003 155 283 003 06986 0000000000

1933. 1534N 06124W 06704 0194 304 001 153 235 002 06988 0000000000

1934 1535N 06126W 06705 0313 298 001 157 225 002 07109 0000000000

1934. 1536N 06129W 06704 0391 317 002 155 229 004 07186 0000000000

1935 1537N 06131W 06704 0396 078 003 159 197 005 07191 0000000000

1935. 1538N 06134W 06708 0397 277 000 161 203 002 07196 0000000000

1936 1539N 06136W 06704 0397 236 005 157 247 006 07192 0000000000

1936. 1540N 06139W 06705 0396 233 006 155 251 007 07192 0000000000

1937 1542N 06141W 06704 0396 229 009 151 273 009 07191 0000000000

1937. 1543N 06144W 06706 0395 249 008 157 255 009 07192 0000000000

1938 1544N 06146W 06704 0393 254 009 151 269 010 07189 0000000000

1938. 1545N 06149W 06706 0392 252 011 153 249 011 07189 0000000000

1939 1546N 06151W 06702 0392 247 010 149 275 011 07184 0000000000

1939. 1547N 06154W 06706 0392 256 007 149 197 010 07189 0000000000

1940 1549N 06156W 06706 0392 314 010 149 201 012 07189 0000000000

1940. 1550N 06159W 06703 0393 304 008 147 211 010 07187 0000000000

1941 1551N 06201W 06703 0389 036 005 145 171 015 07182 0000000000

1941. 1552N 06204W 06707 0395 039 008 145 207 012 07192 0000000000

1942 1553N 06206W 06703 0395 028 006 153 191 006 07188 0000000000

1942. 1554N 06208W 06716 0394 063 005 161 247 005 07201 0000000000

;

1942z...time now 1959z :lol:

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks Snow Bear! My tum is getting very full of this humble pie now though. I suppose the only way to avoid having to eat more is to keep my 'humble pie hole ' shut :lol:

Saying that was that a 63 gust on the last readout?......no , I thought not!!!

Edited August 9, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[crimsone]

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING

WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. WHILE AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE

HUNTER AIRCRAFT COULD NOT FIND A CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS

AFTERNOON...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IF

NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM

WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS

TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER

ANTILLES TONIGHT....AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON

THURSDAY.

Edited August 9, 2006 by crimsone

[SnowBear]

Ok, lets see if we can refresh memories from last year on mini-obs, and also some info for those who are not too sure how to read the raw data, this is to the best of my knowledge and how I read them last year after some nosing about on the net for info on reading raw data, think the format is the same this year.

If anyone has additions or see faults please say and we can correct accordingly.

A random line from this evenings data stream.

2006. 1707N 06358W 04389 0269 105 032 003 075 034 04737 0000000000

2006 Time in Zulu or GMT, which equates to 9.06pm BST

1707N 06358W Degrees Lat and Long

04389 Think this one is altitude, which is 4389m

0269 Not sure on this one

105 Wind direction in degrees clockwise from North

032 Wind speed in knots at flight level over a 30 second period

003 Air temperature, a negative last number denotes a below zero temperature, so this shows -0.3c

075 Dew point, as above, so this shows -7.5c

034 This shows gust or 10 second winds, 34 knots

04737 Not sure

0000000000 all data appears good, any 1's present would mean suspect data is present. Each zero corresponds to one of the values, ie; if we had 0000100100, the Wind direction for the 30 second wind speed would be suspect, and also the 10 second wind speed value.

Edited August 9, 2006 by SnowBear

[crimsone]

Thanks SnowBear. Your decyphering instructions are very very much appreciated. I'd almost suggest that perhaps they could be added into the hurricane tutorial or something

Could you tell me though, why isn't the second set of recon obs you posted earlier than the first set (just from looking at the header obviously)? Or is it that it's a standard recon header which is read just like the vortex message, but I just haven't recognised it as such? (I suppose I could just check, but I figure that I'll know when I want to look later if I get just a yes or no

Edited August 9, 2006 by crimsone

[SnowBear]

If we can get together a complete set of decyphering rules, for all of the data sets, Vortex data, mini-obs, etc, we sure could get some pinned tutorials pinned up, I dont mind spending some time constructing the posts, would like to make sure all is correct before we do that though as I might need to do adjustments to my post above as yet, its just a set of guidelines I found last year and might be out of date though does seem ok to me this year as well!

[crimsone]

If we can get together a complete set of decyphering rules, for all of the data sets, Vortex data, mini-obs, etc, we

For the vortex and mini, the NHC does have a set of instructions for reading RECCO, but unfortunately I can't seem to follow them all that easily. I haven't tried the supplemanry vortex or dropsonde obs yet, but they look as hard to follow as the RECCO...

Vortex data tutuorial

Supplementary vortex tutorial

Dropsonde tutorial

Tropical & non-tropical RECCO tutorial

...that is, with the exception of the vortex data message - that really is pretty easy.

Edited August 9, 2006 by crimsone

[SMU]

If we can get together a complete set of decyphering rules, for all of the data sets, Vortex data, mini-obs, etc, we sure could get some pinned tutorials pinned up, I dont mind spending some time constructing the posts, would like to make sure all is correct before we do that though as I might need to do adjustments to my post above as yet, its just a set of guidelines I found last year and might be out of date though does seem ok to me this year as well!

While invest 91L potters along the next wave is looking distinctly organised- I love this image-

S

[Kain]

I wonder if this could be a new type of hybrid storm..

It just looks too TS like but no LLC..

Weird. I guess we will have to see what recon says..

Kain

[Gray-Wolf]

It's hard to imagine that something the weight of that Tropical Thunderstorm ploughing through the surrounding air at that rate of knots doesn't have any eddys flowing off the rear of it but no.....not a sausage...nowt. The water Vapour loop of this evenings convection looks like a fireball ploughing into the atmosphere but still no development beyond a great blob pushing into the Caribbean. Darn it I say!.

When Steve Murr mentions the next wave and you look at Africa you can see it both as a wave (form) and a wave as in another assault. One of these 'waves' of activity is going to give us a nice system to watch!!

[crimsone]

That said, I'm not sure that there's been a invest either this year or last that has produced so much interest. Some TD/TS threads don't get to five pages onwards! lol

This one certainly has been fun to watch, especially today, and will hopefully still continue to be so.

[P.K.]

Feel free to use the recon decoding guide I posted here as the USAF and NOAA miniobs are different.

[SnowBear]

Hmmm, interesting little file here!!

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/ReconExcel.xls

Decoder, takes all the donkey work out of it, does all data that I can see.

Read carefully, dont worry about macro's, mine are disabled, I just told it not to ask for updates.

Copy data in exactly as it says and hey presto, decoded data!