Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread

[carinthian]

Greetings,

What a refreshing change to be back in a "temperate" Blighty this August after 2 weeks of blistering heat in Ibiza. Memories of the July heatwave now a distant memory, thoughts turn northwards as the sun sinks towards the horizon in the land of the "mid-night sun" and the fast approaching Autumn Equinox and the North Pole in twilight.

Usually by the second week of August, mean temps fall below 0C from the Mid - Arctic to the pole itself. Having being away for a few weeks, I been studying the excellent charts provided by the Spanish Met Office,who also provide a TV channel to include sailing forecasts and even upper air chart presentations for the watching public.

Anyway, heres my view of the latest reports from the Arctic:

The next 3 to 4 weeks will show if we are to reach a record low in Sea Surface ice extent. My observations think it will be close run. As expected from the last report, the Canadian sector has opened up with some low contentrations of ice up to 75 degrees N, however, the Beufort Basin remains locked to the Point of Barrow. In the Siberian Sector Laptov and Kara Sea have widely opened up with some low concentrations . Nearer to home the Barent Sea " cold pool " intrigue remains. Looking at the latest temperature predictions I do not expect any further reductions of the Arctic Ocean sea ice extent above 78N and the solid concentration in the Augura Basin should soon start to expand southwards towards the Barent Sea.

Carinthian

[West is Best]

Welcome back Carinthian!

A lot has been posted just lately over on here: http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=28442

It's looking like the record minimum ...

[parmenides3]

Good to have the 'pro' back. B)

Should someone merge the ssta sea-ice talk into here? opinions?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Good to have the 'pro' back. B)

Should someone merge the ssta sea-ice talk into here? opinions?

Carinthian

Welcome back! Have you read the Anchorage report posted by Permanides3 on the other arctic thread?

Permanides they certainly overlap.

BFTP

[parmenides3]

BFTP, in a sense you are right. Even the 'experts' acknowledge that it is difficult to distinguish between 'natural' and anthropogenic change.

They do observe that the current warming (and the Greenland cooling)is consistent with AGW scenarios, but no more than that.

The albedo effect does make a difference, as a feedback into the cycle.

Carinthian is back, so I'll post on his strand about current conditions if there is anything I can contribute. B)

[BrickFielder]

Nice report and seems to fit in well with the NOAA National snow and ice data center anomaly reports.

Just a reminder to those reading these threads that anomaly charts from different agencies show different results.

Read the validation section at the following link as to why there may be some errors in satelite measurement which would make assessing the actual state of ice difficult. Remember to compare only data collected in a similar fashion and a relevant period.

NSIDC

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

They do observe that the current warming (and the Greenland cooling)is consistent with AGW scenarios, but no more than that.

Carinthian is back, so I'll post on his strand about current conditions if there is anything I can contribute. B)

Permanides3

Interesting thanks

BFTP

[parmenides3]

That report shows much more ice than the current images - and more than I can remember seeing at the end of July; I suspect it's a composite of the monthly mean, or something.

Carinth, what do you make of the huge 'reduced ice' area in the middle of the Beaufort/AB area?

B)

[carinthian]

That report shows much more ice than the current images - and more than I can remember seeing at the end of July; I suspect it's a composite of the monthly mean, or something.

Carinth, what do you make of the huge 'reduced ice' area in the middle of the Beaufort/AB area?

B)

Hi P3,

Just been catching up with your great posts. For much of the summer in the Canadian Arctic Rim winds had kept the ice pushed close to the coast, as a result young or first season ice remained longer than expected. The formation of the Alaskan Low reversed the wind flow and with the advent of the predicted warmer winds off the land probably caused this "quick" reduction in the middle. This process is likely to continue for about another 10 days before freezing up starts again.

C

[parmenides3]

Thanks. B)

No more dawlish (crosses self), but odds on a CT minimum?

[carinthian]

Thanks. B)

No more dawlish (crosses self), but odds on a CT minimum?

Is he on holiday ? Not read any of his posts recently. Could be back posting on Met Check forum.

C

[parmenides3]

Is he on holiday ? Not read any of his posts recently. Could be back posting on Met Check forum.

C

Banned! B) Ask OON.

[carinthian]

Greetings,

What a refreshing change to be back in a "temperate" Blighty this August after 2 weeks of blistering heat in Ibiza. Memories of the July heatwave now a distant memory, thoughts turn northwards as the sun sinks towards the horizon in the land of the "mid-night sun" and the fast approaching Autumn Equinox and the North Pole in twilight.

Usually by the second week of August, mean temps fall below 0C from the Mid - Arctic to the pole itself. Having being away for a few weeks, I been studying the excellent charts provided by the Spanish Met Office,who also provide a TV channel to include sailing forecasts and even upper air chart presentations for the watching public.

Anyway, heres my view of the latest reports from the Arctic:

The next 3 to 4 weeks will show if we are to reach a record low in Sea Surface ice extent. My observations think it will be close run. As expected from the last report, the Canadian sector has opened up with some low contentrations of ice up to 75 degrees N, however, the Beufort Basin remains locked to the Point of Barrow. In the Siberian Sector Laptov and Kara Sea have widely opened up with some low concentrations . Nearer to home the Barent Sea " cold pool " intrigue remains. Looking at the latest temperature predictions I do not expect any further reductions of the Arctic Ocean sea ice extent above 78N and the solid concentration in the Augura Basin should soon start to expand southwards towards the Barent Sea.

Carinthian

Hi again,

Just a point of interest,the first snowfalls of the" season" early today affecting the Northern Barent and the projected cold pool there early next week down to -15C at 850 mb level. Very strange summer up there after a past winter season of very low ice retention. Worth watching developments in this region. Can have a major influence of our coming Autumn.

Carinth

[parmenides3]

Where are you getting your diagnostics from, Carinth? I'd love to have a look.

Sorry to backtrack:

Hi P3,

Just been catching up with your great posts. For much of the summer in the Canadian Arctic Rim winds had kept the ice pushed close to the coast, as a result young or first season ice remained longer than expected. The formation of the Alaskan Low reversed the wind flow and with the advent of the predicted warmer winds off the land probably caused this "quick" reduction in the middle. This process is likely to continue for about another 10 days before freezing up starts again.

C

First; . But seriously; it occurred to me that there might have been an effect on the Canadian Basin halocline by an increased influx of warm waters from the Bering Sea this Summer; would this also contribute to the thinning in the N. Beaufort Sea? If so, what implications might this have for reformation this coming season?

P

[carinthian]

Where are you getting your diagnostics from, Carinth? I'd love to have a look.

Sorry to backtrack:

First; . But seriously; it occurred to me that there might have been an effect on the Canadian Basin halocline by an increased influx of warm waters from the Bering Sea this Summer; would this also contribute to the thinning in the N. Beaufort Sea? If so, what implications might this have for reformation this coming season?

P

Hi P3

More than likely possible shifts in wind patterns affect the distribution of "open water " areas in the polar ice cap. Global Warming affects very much in research stage as yet .

cheers

C

[parmenides3]

C, Thanks.

I wasn't intending to imply a GW effect - that's another strand. Been reading some of the material from WHOI, which is looking into relation between sea-ice & the Pacific influx; just thought you might have an opinion. As SATs have not been especially warm over the area (as far as I can tell), I was speculating that the warmer water might be aiding in the melt from below. I have read that young ice in particular can be 'smashed' into nothing almost overnight by strong winds, but I thought that this area was covered by multi-year ice a month ago.

Re. the N. Barents, AARI/AANI shows some interesting projections on their SLP forecasts, with a strong high pushing Poleward from Central Siberia, splitting the lows to the E. & W.; is this a characteristic pattern for the time of year? In fact, you might have to explain a bit more about how the Barents low might impact on our own weather - I get confused...

P

[carinthian]

C, Thanks.

I wasn't intending to imply a GW effect - that's another strand. Been reading some of the material from WHOI, which is looking into relation between sea-ice & the Pacific influx; just thought you might have an opinion. As SATs have not been especially warm over the area (as far as I can tell), I was speculating that the warmer water might be aiding in the melt from below. I have read that young ice in particular can be 'smashed' into nothing almost overnight by strong winds, but I thought that this area was covered by multi-year ice a month ago.

Re. the N. Barents, AARI/AANI shows some interesting projections on their SLP forecasts, with a strong high pushing Poleward from Central Siberia, splitting the lows to the E. & W.; is this a characteristic pattern for the time of year? In fact, you might have to explain a bit more about how the Barents low might impact on our own weather - I get confused...

P

P,

The North Barent Low is different from the girdle of low pressure systems that frequently occur along the polar front. In effect the North Barent low is a cold pool circulation which is beyond the line of convergence and westerly winds. Its feed is primarily polar. In winter this source will provide greatest risk of widespread snowstorms to the United Kingdom if the high pressure systems are established in the right places (ie) Greenland to Siberia. Occasionally these Anticyclones are broken by an invasion of cyclonic storms from the North Barent. So P3 I think you are on the right track. Polar Met Charts are obsessive to me and if the North Barent cold pool remains throughout the winter period , expected some amazing winter weather !

C

[parmenides3]

Thanks for a nice, clear explanation. So, the existence of the low is not enough in itself, even with the HP areas in place; there still needs to be movement of cyclonic storms into an area where they can feed towards us; is that right?

P

[Damien]

Polar Met Charts are obsessive to me and if the North Barent cold pool remains throughout the winter period , expected some amazing winter weather !

Name examples and past winters when this has happened before.

I don't doubt you I just want something to compare this hypothesis too.

[carinthian]

Name examples and past winters when this has happened before.

I don't doubt you I just want something to compare this hypothesis too.

Damien,

Best example is to use www.wetterzentrale. top karten Archives and look at the period 4th to 7 th February 1969 and study 500mb animation charts. You will see how a Northerly jet fed by the North Barent low splits the dominant Greenland and North Siberian high pressure systems. That February produced some amazing snowstorms. I know as I drew many surface charts during that period. If John Holmes reads this post, I think he was on duty when they had to close the airport at Manchester .

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Damien,

Best example is to use www.wetterzentrale. top karten Archives and look at the period 4th to 7 th February 1969 and study 500mb animation charts. You will see how a Northerly jet fed by the North Barent low splits the dominant Greenland and North Siberian high pressure systems. That February produced some amazing snowstorms. I know as I drew many surface charts during that period. If John Holmes reads this post, I think he was on duty when they had to close the airport at Manchester .

C

Carinthian

What a month, just looked at the pressure charts...stunning. You hinting at potential similar set up sometime this winter?

BFTP

[carinthian]

Carinthian

What a month, just looked at the pressure charts...stunning. You hinting at potential similar set up sometime this winter?

BFTP

Hi Blast.

As you say, just stunning. Winter of 1969 was a peak of southerly ice extent in the Iceland Basin and Barent sea. So we have a long way to go (ice wise ) but it is encouraging to see the persistance of the North Barent Sea cold pool this past few months.

C

[parmenides3]

It's a good enough hypothesis, Carinth., no reason to doubt you, but isn't talk of forthcoming snow perhaps a little bit of wishful thinking?

[carinthian]

It's a good enough hypothesis, Carinth., no reason to doubt you, but isn't talk of forthcoming snow perhaps a little bit of wishful thinking?

Hi P3

Yes.

C

Please post maps of the situation in 1969 and the situation now, plus some other (preferably more recent) years of both mild and colder winters when this wasn't the case, so we can compare.

Hi Damien,

Not sure how to post maps. Its an age thing. But charts from late January 79 come to mine. Mild winter do not fit the scenario.

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Blast.

As you say, just stunning. Winter of 1969 was a peak of southerly ice extent in the Iceland Basin and Barent sea. So we have a long way to go (ice wise ) but it is encouraging to see the persistance of the North Barent Sea cold pool this past few months.

C

Carinth

The arctic warmth peaked in 1938 to early 40s and was warmer overall then than now. Winters were mild but a sudden shock hit Europe from 1940 with bonechilling cold. What changed in the arctic to bring this effect [if any] of course. Views ideas? And before anyone jumps on the bandwagon of me hopecasting etc it is about what happened then and why?

BFTP