Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread

[carinthian]

Intresting to note everyone we have a decent sized -10C lobe at 850hpa in the Artic circle:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...00220060815.png

Now while I know this will have no impact on the upcoming winter its still intresting to look back and compare and this is by far the coldest air in that region of the world in at least 6 years. it's even more intresting to see GFS establishing a polar vortex over the same area as the cold air is now which may well allow even more cold air to build up. What this may mean is that any northerly flow we get in September may have more bite then normal, granted you'd only be looking at a frost at best but nonetheless its a good start.

Hi KW,

As I mentioned in the earlier posts that a noticable cold pool has been forming in the North Barent Sea. If you look at the archive 500mb charts on 13 th October 1968 and again on 7th February 1969, the early establishment of a cold vortex in that particular location has a profound effect on the forthcoming winter (ie) snow and extreme cold as was the case in that winter.

Thanks

Carinth

[carinthian]

Heres a webcam of the barrow sea. Nice visiual aid to watching the sea ice re-form. :blink:

Click here

Hi ,

Looks like Scarborough on a spring day !

C

[kippure]

Hi ,

Looks like Scarborough on a spring day !

C

:blink:

[smith25]

Hi KW,

As I mentioned in the earlier posts that a noticable cold pool has been forming in the North Barent Sea. If you look at the archive 500mb charts on 13 th October 1968 and again on 7th February 1969, the early establishment of a cold vortex in that particular location has a profound effect on the forthcoming winter (ie) snow and extreme cold as was the case in that winter.

Thanks

Carinth

Don't tease us with those winter years....thats just cruel.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi KW,

As I mentioned in the earlier posts that a noticable cold pool has been forming in the North Barent Sea. If you look at the archive 500mb charts on 13 th October 1968 and again on 7th February 1969, the early establishment of a cold vortex in that particular location has a profound effect on the forthcoming winter (ie) snow and extreme cold as was the case in that winter.

Thanks

Carinth

I remember Roger J smith discussing this and the displacement of the polar vortex from Canada to the position it sems to be building in. It would be very interesting to see it develop further and remain...as indeed it does 'encourage' cold winters as indeed Carinth is hinting at. I remember Roger's [J SMITH] observation that the magnetic pole has moved eastwards and this would cause a repositioning of the polar vortex....Are we seeing signs of this effect?

BFTP

[Anti-Mild]

I remember Roger J smith discussing this and the displacement of the polar vortex from Canada to the position it sems to be building in. It would be very interesting to see it develop further and remain...as indeed it does 'encourage' cold winters as indeed Carinth is hinting at. I remember Roger's [J SMITH] observation that the magnetic pole has moved eastwards and this would cause a repositioning of the polar vortex....Are we seeing signs of this effect?

BFTP

I know that the magnetic pole has shifted regularly and if I can find the link I'll post it. I'm sure that it would impact our climate.

AM

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I know that the magnetic pole has shifted regularly and if I can find the link I'll post it. I'm sure that it would impact our climate.

AM

AM

Was reading up on it a little. Apparently it has been moving NW over the last 150 years and has accelerated over the last 25 years. If it continues on this track and speed it could be over Siberia within 50 years. It could speed up more but it could also slow down too according to scientists. The Arctic polar vortex is generally found over NE Canada which allows freezing air to plunge south over the great prairies. Your right in that it moves around and its track could change but this current movement is of interest and is being monitored closely.

BFTP

Edited August 15, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Anti-Mild]

AM

Was reading up on it a little. Apparently it has been moving NW over the last 150 years and has accelerated over the last 25 years. If it continues on this track it could be over Siberia within 50 years. The Arctic polar vortex is generally found over NE Canada which allows freezing air to plunge south over the great prairies. Your right in that it moves around and its track could change but this current movement is of interest and is being monitored closely.

BFTP

Perhaps another factor in climate change ? Maybe the pole needs to be in the 'right place' for ice retention? TBH I don't know enough on the subject but I will find out.

AM

[carinthian]

I remember Roger J smith discussing this and the displacement of the polar vortex from Canada to the position it sems to be building in. It would be very interesting to see it develop further and remain...as indeed it does 'encourage' cold winters as indeed Carinth is hinting at. I remember Roger's [J SMITH] observation that the magnetic pole has moved eastwards and this would cause a repositioning of the polar vortex....Are we seeing signs of this effect?

BFTP

Hi BFTP,

I am not sure whether the eastward movement of the magnetic pole has anything to do with this. My own inclination favours the continued Atlantic blocking and so called "Northern Blocking " is the major player. A more eastward postion of the polar vortex has certainly been the catalyst to induce cold winter spells in our locality when breaking through the block. Generally the Atlantic has been quieter this past 18 months.

C

[Anti-Mild]

Hi BFTP,

I am not sure whether the eastward movement of the magnetic pole has anything to do with this. My own inclination favours the continued Atlantic blocking and so called "Northern Blocking " is the major player. A more eastward postion of the polar vortex has certainly been the catalyst to induce cold winter spells in our locality when breaking through the block. Generally the Atlantic has been quieter this past 18 months.

C

The last serious Atlantic activity I can recall was back in January 2005. Since the cold spell of the following February it's been very quiet. Long may it continue!

Edited August 15, 2006 by Anti-Mild

[carinthian]

The last serious Atlantic activity I can recall was back in January 2005. Since the cold spell of the following February it's been very quiet. Long may it continue!

hI am,

Interesting times a head I feel.

Cheers

C

[carinthian]

A pump of warm moist air into SW Greenland has produced temps up to 20C in places earlier this week. The moist air has dried over the highice cap and arrives over the coast as a wind of foehn character. Even the temp on the summit is only just above freezing. The Atlantic block is the probable cause .

Carinthian

[Anti-Mild]

A pump of warm moist air into SW Greenland has produced temps up to 20C in places earlier this week. The moist air has dried over the highice cap and arrives over the coast as a wind of foehn character. Even the temp on the summit is only just above freezing. The Atlantic block is the probable cause .

Carinthian

Carinthian,

Looking at GFS's latest offering and it looks like being mild over Greenland until about Saturday by which time the 0 degree 850hpa isotherm takes over. Out into FI a fairly decent cold pool starts to develop but this current spell could have an impact on ice levels.

[parmenides3]

I'm starting to get worried, C., about the synchronicity of your posts with my browsing!

Earlier on I was looking at a site from Nuuk, noticed the temperature was 61F, and was wondering if that was unusual.

By the way, the site also contains a good webcam link page, with up-to-date links;

http://jenskjk.dk/arcticwebcams.htm The link arrow at the top takes you to jjk's Greenland home site.

The Canadian Ice Service is showing conditions in some areas up to 3 weeks ahead of normal, and forecast slow to moderate melt to continue into the first week of September, with the possible development of grey ice in the most Northerly part of the Eastern archipelago around the same time.

I was interested in the development of a large 'splitting off' of a section of the multi-year ice in the North Beaufort/High Arctic area. Have you seen this phenomenon before?

I hope my posts are not 'testing' in the wrong sense; I'm still a newbie, whereas you are an old hand at this. Please be gentle with me..

:lol: P

Edit; as I can't get the above link to work myself, you may need to google 'Arctic webcams live from Greenland@ to get the link. Sorry about that. :lol:

Edited August 16, 2006 by parmenides3

[carinthian]

I'm starting to get worried, C., about the synchronicity of your posts with my browsing!

Earlier on I was looking at a site from Nuuk, noticed the temperature was 61F, and was wondering if that was unusual.

By the way, the site also contains a good webcam link page, with up-to-date links;

http://jenskjk.dk/arcticwebcams.htm The link arrow at the top takes you to jjk's Greenland home site.

The Canadian Ice Service is showing conditions in some areas up to 3 weeks ahead of normal, and forecast slow to moderate melt to continue into the first week of September, with the possible development of grey ice in the most Northerly part of the Eastern archipelago around the same time.

I was interested in the development of a large 'splitting off' of a section of the multi-year ice in the North Beaufort/High Arctic area. Have you seen this phenomenon before?

I hope my posts are not 'testing' in the wrong sense; I'm still a newbie, whereas you are an old hand at this. Please be gentle with me..

:lol: P

Edit; as I can't get the above link to work myself, you may need to google 'Arctic webcams live from Greenland@ to get the link. Sorry about that.

Morning PM3,

The long feed of moist warm air continues to push well into Baffin Bay. Lots of rain and wind into the Arctic circle will continue to enhance some fourther ice melt into the Island inlets. On the otherhand you will note some sub- zero air pushing into the Beaufort Basin. Its always a matter of counter balance. What concerns me is there remains no zonalty to push the normal transient low pressure systems across this area (again the Atlantic block in our latitudes is the main player )?

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Morning PM3,

The long feed of moist warm air continues to push well into Baffin Bay. Lots of rain and wind into the Arctic circle will continue to enhance some fourther ice melt into the Island inlets. On the otherhand you will note some sub- zero air pushing into the Beaufort Basin. Its always a matter of counter balance. What concerns me is there remains no zonalty to push the normal transient low pressure systems across this area (again the Atlantic block in our latitudes is the main player )?

C

Carinthian

Interesting post by Steve MURR on the autumn LRF thread re the polar vortex

BFTP

[parmenides3]

Morning PM3,

The long feed of moist warm air continues to push well into Baffin Bay. Lots of rain and wind into the Arctic circle will continue to enhance some fourther ice melt into the Island inlets. On the otherhand you will note some sub- zero air pushing into the Beaufort Basin. Its always a matter of counter balance. What concerns me is there remains no zonalty to push the normal transient low pressure systems across this area (again the Atlantic block in our latitudes is the main player )?

C

Thanks, C.

Whenever you post more info., I try to go to the charts and look for the patterns.

I think I can see what you mean about the lack of zonality; the low pressure systems all seem to be very static on the forecast models. What stood out, though, was what seems to be a considerable strengthening of the Central Polar anticyclone, which appears to be drawing in local systems, only to push them out again. The Icelandic Low also appears to be a powerful, independent, force in the system at the moment.

Going back to your discussion of the Barents low & seasonal prospects, whilst browsing today, I found a seasonal forecast model on the Russian HMoR site, showing model predictions for Autumn. The model shows 850 Hpa anomalies. It is predicting a high likelihood of above normal anomaly over the entire area East of the Urals, with a good probability of normal to below normal pressure in the Russian/ Western/ Barents areas. Is this good news, as far as the outlook for Winter snow is concerned?

P

[carinthian]

Thanks, C.

Whenever you post more info., I try to go to the charts and look for the patterns.

I think I can see what you mean about the lack of zonality; the low pressure systems all seem to be very static on the forecast models. What stood out, though, was what seems to be a considerable strengthening of the Central Polar anticyclone, which appears to be drawing in local systems, only to push them out again. The Icelandic Low also appears to be a powerful, independent, force in the system at the moment.

Going back to your discussion of the Barents low & seasonal prospects, whilst browsing today, I found a seasonal forecast model on the Russian HMoR site, showing model predictions for Autumn. The model shows 850 Hpa anomalies. It is predicting a high likelihood of above normal anomaly over the entire area East of the Urals, with a good probability of normal to below normal pressure in the Russian/ Western/ Barents areas. Is this good news, as far as the outlook for Winter snow is concerned?

P

Hi PM3

Is that air pressure anomaly or temp anomaly at 850Hpa you are referring about ?

C

[parmenides3]

Hi PM3

Is that air pressure anomaly or temp anomaly at 850Hpa you are referring about ?

C

Sorry, C. It shows T850. On http://meteoinfo.ru/season

P

[carinthian]

Sorry, C. It shows T850. On http://meteoinfo.ru/season

P

hI PM3,

What I can make out is that this product is purely experimental and best not read to much into it .

Short term Arctic Rim- Eurasia models are perhaps your best guidence to watch how things pan out. Weekend prog shows the continuation of the Mid - Atlantic block with a feed of warm air into Greenland. The North Barent cold pool seems to strenghen, whilst the UK low circulation starts to feed some warm air into Russia. Strange weather patterns for mid - August. Great for weather watching !

C

[parmenides3]

Ta, C.

Something like this one, then? AARI/AANII Forecast for Tuesday:

P

[carinthian]

Ta, C.

Something like this one, then? AARI/AANII Forecast for Tuesday:

P

Hi PM3

Search http.polarmet...you will pick up similar charts in English. I used Google search engine.

Good Hunting

[SMU]

Current sea ice Status at the end of July....

Not good reading.....

S

[Mr Sleet]

Current sea ice Status at the end of July....

Not good reading.....

S

Good job polar bears can't read

They will have to migrate to Antarctica, where the ice is increasing.

[oldsnowywizard]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

where will it stop...nobody knows.