Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread

[parmenides3]

As this is Carinthian's sea-ice thread, I won't say much, except to remind BFTP about the date. Compared to recent years, it's still quite early as far as the minimum is concerned. My impression from the map is that the ice edge may have shifted slightly Southward in the North Barents, but some of the analysis maps show pooling to the N. of the edges. In many areas, the level is more or less static, now. Just waiting for Carinth. to tell us what's happening.

P

[Anti-Mild]

Just waiting for Carinth. to tell us what's happening.

P

I haven't seen him on for a few days now. Perhaps he's up in the Arctic measuring the ice personally !!

[parmenides3]

I haven't seen him on for a few days now. Perhaps he's up in the Arctic measuring the ice personally !!

Hope he's taken his wellies. Or better, a boat. I suppose we'd better take a look at the weather charts, then.

P

[Anti-Mild]

Hope he's taken his wellies. Or better, a boat. I suppose we'd better take a look at the weather charts, then.

P

Well, looking at the 850hpa charts the cold pool stays steady within the reasonable timeframe then it shrinks but intensifies over Greenland around +96, even giving us some -15 air!!! I doubt that the minimum has been reached this early in the season but there doesn't look to be any major threat to the sea ice in the short term so you never know!

[parmenides3]

Well, looking at the 850hpa charts the cold pool stays steady within the reasonable timeframe then it shrinks but intensifies over Greenland around +96, even giving us some -15 air!!! I doubt that the minimum has been reached this early in the season but there doesn't look to be any major threat to the sea ice in the short term so you never know!

Okay, but have you seen the 2m temps for Greenland? We're suddenly looking at -30 for the first time. There still seems to be plenty of inversion, but the look of the 850hpa suggests some vertical flux coming soon. Alaska is still mild, by the way, and most of Siberia seems to be well above normal temps. There is still warm air making its way North over the Beaufort Sea, too, so I'd give it another week or two before we can say we are at minimum.

Where are the experts when you need them? (...not that you're not, A-M, but I certainly amn't).

P

[Anti-Mild]

(...not that you're not, A-M, but I certainly amn't).

P

Thanks for that but no, I'm in no way an expert! Enthusiastic amateur maybe !

[parmenides3]

Ditto.

If I can get it attched, this is what the MMAB NCEP graphic looks like:

[Anti-Mild]

Do you have a link for that p3?

Is that a sliver of ice on the Northern flank of Norway? I'm sure at this time last year the North coastline of Svalbard was blocked with ice, now look at it !

Edit: just had a closer look and unless there is sea ice off the coast of Dorset then it's not ice on top of Norway !

Edited August 22, 2006 by Anti-Mild

[parmenides3]

Link: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/analyses.html

click on the N-hemisphere (new resolution)

Another good page is: http://www.seaice.dk/iwicos/

For this one, if you click on the main image or today's images, you can enlarge them. IWICOS uses a three-day cycle, as does Cryosphere today. All three show different end products, depending on how they interpret the data. CT is the only site where the areas have graphs showing cover, so that's where I ( & I think, Carinth.) go for the numbers.

There's a strand about/from Svalbard on NW somewhere, and an interesting article on why it's such an important site for climate assessment on Realclimate.org . Last time I checked, it was still fairly mild there.

Don't thing there's an iceberg off Dorset! Sometimes, they seem to pick up precip. and don't filter it all out.

P

Edit; the noaa page should have a capital A on alayses but I can't get it to stick on the damn@d edit!

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/Analyses.html

Edited August 22, 2006 by parmenides3

[Anti-Mild]

Thanks for the links p3! I've always used CT but it's sometimes a little unclear in terms of the maps but the graphs are great!

[Anti-Mild]

Looking at the 850hPa charts, -15 air makes an appearance on Thursday :blush: !

Unfortunately the last time it made such an early appearance was in 1997; and we all know what a disaster the following winter was !

It just goes to show that a cold N.Pole now is no guarantee of cold further south.

[carinthian]

I haven't seen him on for a few days now. Perhaps he's up in the Arctic measuring the ice personally !!

Hi,

Not a lot to report at the moment. In "no mans land " the period of minimum ice extent will probably be a week earlier than last year . Initial signs are good for early freezing over. The pump of warm air into Greenland has waned. Predicted height rises of Greenland and the Mid- Arctic will be good for some welcome cooling.

C

[parmenides3]

Welcome! , Sorry, C.; height rises?

By the way, I think I can see the cold pool you were talking about now, in the Barents.

Temps. dropping fast now close to the Pole.

P

[carinthian]

Welcome! , Sorry, C.; height rises?

By the way, I think I can see the cold pool you were talking about now, in the Barents.

Temps. dropping fast now close to the Pole.

P

Hi PM3,

Freezing surface air not to far off the northern coasts of Svalbard ( some fresh snowfalls on the mountains ) See Nordic Web - Cam site. The rate of temperature fall is greatest over the next 10 weeks.

C

[parmenides3]

Hi PM3,

Freezing surface air not to far off the northern coasts of Svalbard ( some fresh snowfalls on the mountains ) See Nordic Web - Cam site. The rate of temperature fall is greatest over the next 10 weeks.

C

Can't see any fresh snow - but one of the Longyearben cams seems to be out, so it was probably on that one.

It all looks very 'loose', but are you detecting a hint on CT that there is a touch of expansion in the N. Barents of the edge?

[carinthian]

The very latest ice analaysis using visual and infra red have now indicated more ice retention in the Russian sectors than this time last year. By the end of this month, much of the Arctic above 80 degree should be ice covered and fragmented ice ( less than 7/10th ) should not be to far of the northern coastal waters of Svalbard. Ice drift forecast indicate the biggest advance to be in the Laptev Sea.

C

[Rollo]

Hi Carinthian, thanks for all your reports on the ice situation over the summer months, what real effect does the low ice retention in certain areas have on the prospects of cold this winter? or does it really depend as to what the actual wind direction we might get. I always look forward to your regular updates as others do as well.

[carinthian]

Hi Carinthian, thanks for all your reports on the ice situation over the summer months, what real effect does the low ice retention in certain areas have on the prospects of cold this winter? or does it really depend as to what the actual wind direction we might get. I always look forward to your regular updates as others do as well.

Hi Rollo,

First year ice is always vunerable to quick changes. Earlier on this summer ice retention was prolonged in the Canadian Sector but you will know recently it has disappeared at a great rate, mainly because of the warm winds pushing up from the south. Last year saw a record low of ice retention in the Russian sectors. The melting here caused by a long conveyer belt of SWly winds around the Russian High that even made in roads into "old ice " . This summer is different for various reasons as "old ice " concentrations have largely been unaffected, particularly in the Eastern Basin.

C

[John Cox]

Hi C,

I am back at work now after 3 weeks hols so I am just catching up on things.

Would you or any other members have a map (link) that outlines the geographical areas that you and others refer to in this topic.

My geography of northern regions is not that great and it would be nice to be able to refrence the areas mentions.

Keep up the good work.

[parmenides3]

Hi C,

I am back at work now after 3 weeks hols so I am just catching up on things.

Would you or any other members have a map (link) that outlines the geographical areas that you and others refer to in this topic.

My geography of northern regions is not that great and it would be nice to be able to refrence the areas mentions.

Keep up the good work.

Morning, John. Hope you had a good holiday. :lol: It might be best if you use the areas defined on the Cryosphere Today site, as different websites use subtly different boundaries. You'll notice that the chart links beside the map start in the big central bit, then rotate anti-clockwise around the edge of the Arctic.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

If you want a more detailed map, ask.

:lol: P

[kold weather]

Catch it before the 06z run comes out but the first -20C isotherm has shown up over Greenland, purely down to the strengthening Greenland high that has allowed temps to cool rapidly higher up in that region:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn782.png

[noggin]

Carinthian's Arctic ice reports are great. Although I cannot make any contribution to the discussions, I am an avid reader of them.

Long may they continue and many thanks to Carinthian for his time and effort.

[parmenides3]

Catch it before the 06z run comes out but the first -20C isotherm has shown up over Greenland, purely down to the strengthening Greenland high that has allowed temps to cool rapidly higher up in that region:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn782.png

Thanks for that, KW. Pretty much as the models had it a couple of days ago. If they continue to develop in Green;and as predicted, expect -30 in about a week.

By the way, checked the temp. in Nuuk this morning & it was 11C - warmer than some of this morning's weather reports on the daily strand! Barrow's cold, though; first sub-zero I've seen there for a while.

P

[John Cox]

Morning, John. Hope you had a good holiday. It might be best if you use the areas defined on the Cryosphere Today site, as different websites use subtly different boundaries. You'll notice that the chart links beside the map start in the big central bit, then rotate anti-clockwise around the edge of the Arctic.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

If you want a more detailed map, ask.

P

Hi PM3,

Thanks, I had a lovely time off that gave me plenty of time to enjoy the second love of my life, photography.

This site is extremely helpfull but if you had a more detailed map, that would also be great.

[parmenides3]

Is this Okay?

P