Invest 94l

[kold weather]

Hi everyone. Right I'm going to do something that i shouldn't but i'm creating a new thread for a new invest because of just how close it is to being a tropical depression right here and now. Anyway the invest in question is now 94L, which was upgraded today. It's by far the best wave to come of the African coast so far this year. It already has a surface low that is very nearly closed off (awaiting quicksat to confirm a closed low.) and its got amazing convection right now wti hvery cold cloud tops indeed. There is no dry air present, infact quite the opposite, large amounts of moisture are present with this wave and there is no shear, evident by the amazing inflow its got from the SW/WSW.

Very well organised wave considering where it is and reports from NHC suggrests that it already has winds in the storngest thunderstorm and its quite likely that this is already at least a tropical depression, in fac tit may even be tropical storm Debbie right now given the gusts that are being reported.

Models suggests that the only land this system will meet is the cape verde islands, and a weakness in the Azores high will allow it to drift NW and re-curve in the mid-Atlantic probably not causing any real problems, however it is worth noting that it may take a similar track to hurricane Karl in 2004 that still got upto 150mph and hurricane Danielle also become a storm cat-2 in the same sort of track. Now of course I'm not saying this will even get close but oyu don't need the hotbed of the Gulf for a system to really beef up. Anyay SHIPS currently going for max wind sof 50kts, with present pressure at 1009mbs and also wind speeds at 30kts, which is usually tropical depression strength and just 5kts away from the winds being high enough to be upgraded to a tropical storm.

[wolves78]

latest images ive found

[smich]

This one looks to be an absolute cracker - and it's come from nowhere, given the quiet season so far. The saharan dust having diminished...

Many of the events last year sprung up much further west and I've become uncomfortable with such a well defined system just off the coast of Africa!!

As kw says, there is a LOT of warm water to feed this one as it travels west, and with favourable shear conditions, we could be looking the first big one of the season...

Smich

[parmenides3]

This on JTWC:

P

[SnowBear]

Interesting article on CNN today.

NOAA are researching the area where I-94L is/was to find out what makes some waves from the African coast produce a high Cat hurricane, and some to just fade away.

They are also researching and monitoring the Sahara air masses, temperatures and all sorts from a variety of methods including sat data, planes, weather balloons and radar from a base in Cape Verde.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/science/08/14...y.ap/index.html

[kold weather]

Well once again another wave has gone, seems like it has ingested a large amount of SAL from Africa last night night looking at the loops which suggests that the wave has simply been zapped of any convection. It'll still have to be watched down the line if it gets into a better environment however right now it remians as just a wave feature despite the amazing look it had last night, shame really as it only had a little bit of organising to become a TD.

Intresting article snowbear. it certainly is an intresting part to study.

[The PIT]

Well once again another wave has gone, seems like it has ingested a large amount of SAL from Africa last night night looking at the loops which suggests that the wave has simply been zapped of any convection. It'll still have to be watched down the line if it gets into a better environment however right now it remians as just a wave feature despite the amazing look it had last night, shame really as it only had a little bit of organising to become a TD.

Intresting article snowbear. it certainly is an intresting part to study.

Whats SAL when it's a home????

I thought this was dying a death from the lack of reports.

[kold weather]

SAL is the dry air/dust that gets dragged westwards wit hthe trade winds from the Sahara desert and it generally chokes tropical waves of convection. Anyway 94L is now gone and is just a tropical wave crossing the Atlantic, though of course it still needs to be watched though down the line.