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Tropical Storm Hector


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  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Just a quick update on Hector from NHC, now quite a potent little hurricane with a great strcutre, is gonig to be upped to 90kts in the next advisory:

    WTPZ44 KNHC 180255

    TCDEP4

    HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006

    800 PM PDT THU AUG 17 2006

    THE EYE OF HECTOR BECAME CLOUD FILLED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING

    THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...THE EYE HAS

    BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THIS

    TIME... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 80 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND

    OF DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT ARE BETWEEN 77 AND 85 KT...FROM

    TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT.

    INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR SHOULD BE REACHING ITS

    PEAK INTENSITY SOON. THE GFDL MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN

    STRENGTHENING THE HURRICANE TO ABOVE 90 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHILE

    THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS MODELS PEAK HECTOR AT 82 AND 81 KT

    RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF WHY HECTOR

    SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN FURTHER...THE FORECAST BRINGS THE INTENSITY

    TO 90 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GFDL AND

    SHIPS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...HECTOR WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY

    COOLER WATERS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPART A MORE RAPID WEAKENING.

    THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 285/11. HECTOR CONTINUES

    TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE

    EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

    THE HURRICANE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES

    A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE

    TO BE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE

    LEFT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE

    TO THE CONSENSUS.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.4N 123.2W 80 KT

    12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.9N 124.8W 90 KT

    24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 126.7W 85 KT

    36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.6N 128.6W 75 KT

    48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.4N 130.1W 65 KT

    72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 132.8W 50 KT

    96HR VT 22/0000Z 21.5N 135.5W 30 KT

    120HR VT 23/0000Z 22.5N 138.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

    $$

    FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

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