Tropical Storm Hector

[Paranoid]

Just saw this on the GFDL models and hadn't seen it mentioned here. Winds are up to 65mph and pressure is at 992mbar.

[kold weather]

Just a quick update on Hector from NHC, now quite a potent little hurricane with a great strcutre, is gonig to be upped to 90kts in the next advisory:

WTPZ44 KNHC 180255

TCDEP4

HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006

800 PM PDT THU AUG 17 2006

THE EYE OF HECTOR BECAME CLOUD FILLED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING

THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...THE EYE HAS

BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THIS

TIME... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 80 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND

OF DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT ARE BETWEEN 77 AND 85 KT...FROM

TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR SHOULD BE REACHING ITS

PEAK INTENSITY SOON. THE GFDL MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN

STRENGTHENING THE HURRICANE TO ABOVE 90 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHILE

THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS MODELS PEAK HECTOR AT 82 AND 81 KT

RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF WHY HECTOR

SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN FURTHER...THE FORECAST BRINGS THE INTENSITY

TO 90 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GFDL AND

SHIPS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...HECTOR WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY

COOLER WATERS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPART A MORE RAPID WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 285/11. HECTOR CONTINUES

TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE

EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THE HURRICANE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES

A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE

TO BE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE

LEFT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE

TO THE CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.4N 123.2W 80 KT

12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.9N 124.8W 90 KT

24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 126.7W 85 KT

36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.6N 128.6W 75 KT

48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.4N 130.1W 65 KT

72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 132.8W 50 KT

96HR VT 22/0000Z 21.5N 135.5W 30 KT

120HR VT 23/0000Z 22.5N 138.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA