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Major Hurricane Iliana


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

000

WTPZ45 KNHC 221452

TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006

800 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...A RELATIVE WARM SPOT HAS APPEARED WITHIN

THE LARGE CDO FEATURE. SINCE THIS WARM SPOT IS CLOSE TO THE

ESTIMATED CENTER...THIS COULD BE THE EARLY INDICATION OF EYE

FORMATION. STILL...IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE IF

THIS IS AN EYE FORMING AND THERE IS NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO

HELP. AS A RESULT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DIVERGED

SOMEWHAT AND ARE CURRENTLY 45 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB AND

AFWA...AND 63 KT USING THE UW CIMSS ADT. UNDER THE

CIRCUMSTANCES...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS INTENSITY

ESTIMATES APPEARS BEST AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF AN EYE IS INDEED FORMING...THE INITIAL

INTENSITY AND SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD BE LOW. THE INTENSITY

FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS

THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND 72 HOURS...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER

COOLER WATERS RESULTING IN WEAKENING. THE NEW FORECAST IS

ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY

ABOVE THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/13 AND THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO

THE TRACK FORECAST OR UNDERLYING REASONING. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO

BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE

OVER NORTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.

THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST SIDE OF THE

GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS ARE THE

NORTHERNMOST MODELS. SINCE THE LATTER MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A

BETTER ANALYSIS OF THE CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD

THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND

UKMET SOLUTIONS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN

RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 14.8N 106.7W 55 KT

12HR VT 23/0000Z 15.8N 108.4W 65 KT

24HR VT 23/1200Z 17.1N 110.5W 75 KT

36HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 112.7W 85 KT

48HR VT 24/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W 90 KT

72HR VT 25/1200Z 21.6N 117.8W 85 KT

96HR VT 26/1200Z 22.5N 120.0W 65 KT

120HR VT 27/1200Z 23.0N 122.5W 40 KT

$$

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

Now a Major Hurricane

HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006

200 AM PDT WED AUG 23 2006

ILEANA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND

OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING

HURRICANE. ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE BECOMING BETTER

DEFINED WHILE EMBEDDED IN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE UPPER-LEVEL

OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND QUITE SYMMETRIC. LATEST SUBJECTIVE

AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 100

KT...I.E. A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE

SCALE. THERE IS A WINDOW OF ABOUT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL

INTENSIFICATION...DURING WHICH TIME THE HURRICANE COULD ATTAIN CAT.

4 STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO

REMAIN LIGHT...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO BRING

ABOUT WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN GENERAL

AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION...310/16... IS FASTER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN.

THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER

FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WELL-DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE AREA

OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN

GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEAKENING OF THIS HIGH AS A MID-LEVEL

TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA. ACCORDINGLY...THE

FORWARD SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO DECREASE

THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE

TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS TRACK AND ALSO

SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. LESS EMPHASIS IS BEING PLACED ON

THE GFS TRACK...AS THAT MODEL HAS A FAR TOO WEAK INITIALIZATION OF

THE HURRICANE. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE

INDICATES THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL COLLAPSE. THEREFORE LITTLE

MOTION IS SHOWN IN 4-5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.5N 110.6W 100 KT

12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.7N 112.4W 110 KT

24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.9N 114.4W 115 KT

36HR VT 24/1800Z 20.7N 116.0W 105 KT

48HR VT 25/0600Z 21.3N 117.3W 90 KT

72HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 119.2W 70 KT

96HR VT 27/0600Z 22.5N 120.5W 50 KT

120HR VT 28/0600Z 22.5N 121.0W 35 KT

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO

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Posted
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16

Seems like the East is on fire this year.

Kain

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

A strange question, but why are there two 'I' hurricanes for the eastern Pacific this year? We have both Ioke and Ileana at the moment, I always assumed it was one name per letter per season!

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
A strange question, but why are there two 'I' hurricanes for the eastern Pacific this year? We have both Ioke and Ileana at the moment, I always assumed it was one name per letter per season!

I think it's because Ioke is a central pacific hurricane which didn't form in the east pacific.

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