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Major Hurricane Iliana


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    000

    WTPZ45 KNHC 221452

    TCDEP5

    TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006

    800 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006

    DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...A RELATIVE WARM SPOT HAS APPEARED WITHIN

    THE LARGE CDO FEATURE. SINCE THIS WARM SPOT IS CLOSE TO THE

    ESTIMATED CENTER...THIS COULD BE THE EARLY INDICATION OF EYE

    FORMATION. STILL...IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE IF

    THIS IS AN EYE FORMING AND THERE IS NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO

    HELP. AS A RESULT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DIVERGED

    SOMEWHAT AND ARE CURRENTLY 45 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB AND

    AFWA...AND 63 KT USING THE UW CIMSS ADT. UNDER THE

    CIRCUMSTANCES...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS INTENSITY

    ESTIMATES APPEARS BEST AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT.

    IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF AN EYE IS INDEED FORMING...THE INITIAL

    INTENSITY AND SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD BE LOW. THE INTENSITY

    FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS

    THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR

    ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND 72 HOURS...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER

    COOLER WATERS RESULTING IN WEAKENING. THE NEW FORECAST IS

    ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY

    ABOVE THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS.

    INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/13 AND THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO

    THE TRACK FORECAST OR UNDERLYING REASONING. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO

    BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE

    OVER NORTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.

    THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST SIDE OF THE

    GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS ARE THE

    NORTHERNMOST MODELS. SINCE THE LATTER MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A

    BETTER ANALYSIS OF THE CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD

    THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND

    UKMET SOLUTIONS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN

    RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 22/1500Z 14.8N 106.7W 55 KT

    12HR VT 23/0000Z 15.8N 108.4W 65 KT

    24HR VT 23/1200Z 17.1N 110.5W 75 KT

    36HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 112.7W 85 KT

    48HR VT 24/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W 90 KT

    72HR VT 25/1200Z 21.6N 117.8W 85 KT

    96HR VT 26/1200Z 22.5N 120.0W 65 KT

    120HR VT 27/1200Z 23.0N 122.5W 40 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

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    Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

    Now a Major Hurricane

    HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006

    200 AM PDT WED AUG 23 2006

    ILEANA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND

    OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING

    HURRICANE. ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE BECOMING BETTER

    DEFINED WHILE EMBEDDED IN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE UPPER-LEVEL

    OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND QUITE SYMMETRIC. LATEST SUBJECTIVE

    AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 100

    KT...I.E. A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE

    SCALE. THERE IS A WINDOW OF ABOUT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL

    INTENSIFICATION...DURING WHICH TIME THE HURRICANE COULD ATTAIN CAT.

    4 STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO

    REMAIN LIGHT...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO BRING

    ABOUT WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN GENERAL

    AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

    INITIAL MOTION...310/16... IS FASTER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN.

    THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER

    FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WELL-DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE AREA

    OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN

    GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEAKENING OF THIS HIGH AS A MID-LEVEL

    TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA. ACCORDINGLY...THE

    FORWARD SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO DECREASE

    THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE

    TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS TRACK AND ALSO

    SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. LESS EMPHASIS IS BEING PLACED ON

    THE GFS TRACK...AS THAT MODEL HAS A FAR TOO WEAK INITIALIZATION OF

    THE HURRICANE. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE

    INDICATES THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL COLLAPSE. THEREFORE LITTLE

    MOTION IS SHOWN IN 4-5 DAYS.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.5N 110.6W 100 KT

    12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.7N 112.4W 110 KT

    24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.9N 114.4W 115 KT

    36HR VT 24/1800Z 20.7N 116.0W 105 KT

    48HR VT 25/0600Z 21.3N 117.3W 90 KT

    72HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 119.2W 70 KT

    96HR VT 27/0600Z 22.5N 120.5W 50 KT

    120HR VT 28/0600Z 22.5N 121.0W 35 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridgnorth, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Storms...Did I mention Storms?
  • Location: Bridgnorth, Shropshire, WV16

    Seems like the East is on fire this year.

    Kain

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    A strange question, but why are there two 'I' hurricanes for the eastern Pacific this year? We have both Ioke and Ileana at the moment, I always assumed it was one name per letter per season!

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    A strange question, but why are there two 'I' hurricanes for the eastern Pacific this year? We have both Ioke and Ileana at the moment, I always assumed it was one name per letter per season!

    I think it's because Ioke is a central pacific hurricane which didn't form in the east pacific.

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