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Invest 97l


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I will start off by saying that Invest 97L has been named and will soon enter the Carribean already verging on Tropical Depression strength with a central pressure of 1009mb.

    post-2702-1156287288.gif

    As you can see, the models expect a west to north westward track at the moment which is a good call given the steering currents however afterwards is when it becomes interesting because once the system is above 15N, it should pick up a little speed and over the hottest waters of the Carribean we could see rapid development, assuming that the sysyem 'threads the needle', then i would say landfall in Louisiana would be favoured.

    This system has the potential to become a major hurricane, almost all of the shear in the Carribean has dissapeared and there are no upper level lows forecast to 'ruin the party', once this system reaches 70W, there should be no SAL or dry air, i am going to go out on a limb here and give the following forecast...

    Tropical Depression status will be reached on thursday morning, Tropical Storm satus will be reached on friday afternoon, Hurricane staus will be reached on saturday morning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    It certainly needs to be watched SB I'll say that much. The only problem prehaps is how close it'll get to south America could cause it to have some disruption in its southern section. However if it can clear that then its got a fair chance at developing.

    As for your forecast, well its probably over-progressive because it has got a fair way to go even if the system has imprvoed in terms of organisation. Still it has got a fair shot at becoming something and for that reason it will have to be closely watcyhed as it will get into favorable condtions by 48hrs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    No Debby is a good 1500 miles behind 97L so there should no track altering becaus eof either system. In the long run this system should prove to be a far greater threat then what TS Debby is providing it can gain a little more altitude. I suspect it will develop into a tropical depression over the next 48hrs however I don't think it'll be a fast developer until it gains more latitude and gets deeper into the Caribbean. Anyway the model suggesting this could eventually find its way into hitting on the caribbean islands, but what as, thats a good question!

    One major problem that this invest does have is that its going to come mighty close to South America, so much so that land could completely destroy this invest which is why I said this one is going to have to gain more latitude, because if it odesn't the ntrhe chances for formation goes down massivly.

    storm_97.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    The main problem for me is whether or not it can gain enougth altitude, and that is also tyed in with strength, if the system stays weak (i.e wave or depression) then it will most likely not make it above 15N and sterring currents will force a landfall in Mexico, it needs to be at Tropical Storm strength by 60W in order to gain enougth atlitude and develop, if it does this, then it has every chance of becoming a major hurricane as it will be over 30C water.

    The BAMD model shows the bad option which suggested.

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    Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

    Just to make all aware, USAF recon will be flying to this sytem, recon indentifier ..GGA INVEST, tomorrow..

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

    1. SUSPECT AREA

    A. 24/1800Z

    B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST

    C. 24/1600Z

    D. 11.5N 59.0W

    E. 24/1600Z TO 2300Z

    F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12HRLY FIXES AT 25/1800Z

    NEAR 13N AND 64W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

    Departure at approx 16.00 GMT/5pm BST, for a target time for a storm position fix/investigation of 18.00 GMT/7pm BST at a forecast position of 11.5N 59.0W, roughly 150 miles ENE of Trinidad and Tobago.

    :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Invest 97L looking better this morning and stronger as well with a larger convective base then yesterday, hence why it's now upto 30kts.

    Looking for a clsoed circulation with recon going in today I suspect an upgrade to a tropical depression/storm isn't far away for invest 97L, definatly over the next 24hrs if it can keep the organisation the way it is and quite probably sooner rather then later as well...

    Once into the Caribbean this one is going to have to be watched ver closely indeed, I can see it easiy gettign into the gulf of Mexico and indeed thats what mosty models are indicating, even worse is that they are going for an 89kt hurricane by that time. A typical track for such a system is to go westwards and to steadily curvenorth-wards into any weakness, usually hitting Cuba or going through the Yucatan channel. my eariler idea of a possible hit on SA looks unfounded thankfully thanks to its north of west movement.

    Could be trouble this one and it could be our first hurricane if Debby doesn't get there first.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    It looks like the models have taken the more dangerous option to the USA as all models now take the system above 14N by 75W.

    Steering currents would seem to suggest a track towards the Yukatan Channel before a turn westwards before landfall in the USA along the Missisipi/Alabama border, meaning that New Orleans could get hit hard again.

    All in all, this system looks pretty similar to Hurricane Dennis last year, this system looks to be taking a more westward track though.

    Kold Weather, i cannot see this system being upgraded to Tropical Depression staus unless orginisation improves, this is because there are two clusters of convection but no banding which means that there is no defined center.

    As for strength, i will stand my eariler comment of Tropical Storm strength being reached on Friday however i now think that Hurricane strength will be reached on sunday, as for strength, i am going to punt for a maximum intensity of 911mb with susutained windspeeds of 165mph, category 5 intensity.

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    Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

    I dunno, remember Wilma last year, once it gets a little further North and West, it could really bomb especially if it becomes a crawler.

    Theoretically there is a heck of a lot of energy available to I-97L if the track is right, Carribean Sea, Yuc/Cuba gap, then across the Gulf of Mexico...potential is huge.

    But, for now, who knows, my feelings for now though, hmm, season has been quiet and has fooled many, and I think its about to wake up in style.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    I'm not so sure about that SB, it hasn't got much in the way of banding but some larger systems tend to take a while to get going in that respects. You've also got sat estaimtes that out it as a tropical depression strength with Dvarok at 1.5. coupled to this and it has got some sort of circulation at mid-levels, though only recon will really be able to tell whether we have a LLC or not because the system is still embedded in the ITCZ which is why there is still a fair amount of convective mess around it. IF a west wind is found on radar or recon then an upgrade will occur.

    In terms of strength, I'm really not to sure at the moment as its still hasn't even formed yet, so any gues sis just that right now, we need to know more about the track before we can tell exactly how strong it'll get. I'd guess that it won't make it to the highest area of heat content in the westwern Caribbean, however despite this the area of the Caribbean its going to go through can support cat-4's, mind you i do think thats too high given it still hasn't become a depression yet and most systems that get to that sort of strength are already pretty well organised. If shear stays away though I'd say a cat-3 for one of the Cairbbean sounds a pretty reasonable bet IF it forms, if it does get in the gulf then heat content there and SSt's should be high enough for at least a cat-4.

    For now though, everything is just potential, thats all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I was making a judgement based on the probable track and expected conditions, once the system passes 80W, conditions are almost perfect and i expect rapid developmet and for the system to be at category 3 intensity by the time it reaches Cuba/Yucatan.

    Kold Weather, i must disagree in that almost the whole Carribean/Gulf Of Mexico has 29C+ sea surface temperatures, which supports a category 5 hurricane although i do not expect category 5 intensity until it reaches the Gulf Of Mexico.

    Latest pics support what i was saying about the lack of banding...

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc06/ATL/...ir1km.97LINVEST

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    I do agree with the banding issue and I still can't find a closed circulation at lower levels so its is disorganised to a point, though the fact its messy is more down to the wet phase of the MJO powering up the ITCZ rather then part of invest 97L which is the northern most blob i believe.

    In theory certainly the western section of the Caribbean and much of the gulf of Mexico could support cat-5's, though 29C is marginal for such a storm and would need it to be one of those small systems to have a shot at cat-5 status in that sort of waters, the big boys generally need 30-31C to becoming cat-5's, which is what Katrina and Rita had.

    The eastern and central parts of the Caribbean does have 29C the heat content isn't as high therefore cat-5 status really would be very hard to attain in that area, even cat-4 would be a little tricky for a system that is only just now forming. here's a heat content map, this is FAr more important then just SST's alone and shows the area where storms can get the strongest, the gulf could easily support a cat-5 in perfect condtions as could the NW caribbean, as could the gulf stream but anywhere else would struggle to hold much above a mod cat-4:

    https://128.160.23.54/products/K10/HPCk10.gif

    remember ther eis a heck of a lot more then just SSt's alone that sum up the chances of a storm getting to cat-5.

    Intrestingly the GFDL doesn't even form a system and the GFS kills it off quite quickly as a ULL forms and inflicts large shear across the system in the eastern Caribbean, which is known as the graveyard for storms for a good reason!

    If it can get past there and into the central VCaribbean and is still a tropical system then some more rapid development is possible but as a few have said its got a fair way to go before it becomes a tropical storm, esp as it has weakened since this morning a little.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Thanks for the information Kold Weather...

    There does seem to be shear ahead of the system, but only moderate shear which i think the system will handle, but onvce the system reaches 80W, conditions are almost perfect for development.

    I will still stick with my earlier forecast, Hurricane on sunday, category 3 by the time it reaches Cuba/Yukatan and then category 5 in the Gulf Of Mexico, 911mb with sustained windspeeds of 165mph and landfall to the east of New Orleans.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    I'm still watching the G.O.M. itself as the closed circulation there seems to be drawing in convection from all quarters. I take it no models develop anything in the Gulf ove the next 24hrs then?

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Okay Invest 97L structure has changed somewhat over the last few hours, shear has relaly kicked in and the convection is being blown to the east of the system exposing the circulation so it does seem like it has some sort of circulation present with it.

    Convection is also not being helped by the SAL mass that came with it as a wave across the Atlantic though its probably not that dense by now. It still however does have a good convective mass to its east which 97L will feed off til lthe shear eases off, which should be in the next 12-24hrs, thats when further development into a tropical depression/storm is most likely.

    However the one other problem that this system has is the speed its moving at. Unless it slows down its going to outrun its convective mass and with shear also impacting it its going to have to slow down before any decent development occurs.

    Still the invest has got recon inside it right now. Currently its found winds upto 36kts max at flight level and also has found its VERY close to becoming a tropical depression, indeed its just about 10-30 degrees away from having a closed circulation, in other words we have a very sharp wave feature but not quite a TD. It wouldn't take much in the way of convective actvity over the next 6-12hrs to make 97L tropical depression 5.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    If you look a 62w,12.5n you'll see what appears to be closed circulation in front of the main body of convection of 97L (and already through the islands). I would imagine the convection not taking long to 'wrap around' this suface feature and there we will go with TD5.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Looks like we have a tropical depression here folks, a NW wind has been found which fully closes off the circulation:

    1822. 1148N 06244W 00306 5020 305 005 250 224 006 00296 0000000000

    1823 1147N 06244W 00305 5020 306 008 250 224 010 00295 0000000000

    Be it the winds are hardly going to kill anyone in that section, its a NW wind anyway which closes of the invest....in other words....we probably have tropical depression 5 and its not far off tropical storm status either. Still lop-sided system however wit hthe main convection on the eastern side, thanks to the shear thats present over it that the SHIPS put it upto 21kts recently though they do reduce the shear over the next 24-48hrs which is 97L main time to possibly strengthen into a strong system.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

    Right you are KW! We have TD5 - possibly even TS Ernesto...

    000

    WONT41 KNHC 241912

    DSAAT

    SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

    315 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

    REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE

    TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS

    DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM

    AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL

    STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE

    OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME.

    $$

    FORECASTER FRANKLIN

    (PS - incidentally, has anybody ever suggested to the NHC that they might like to stick to one timezone on their website. Currently for the atlantic, we have UTC, AST, and EDT being given as advisory times for the various different products - it's just a tad confusing. I don't even know what AST is lol! Can they not stick to EDT for the atlantic (Or better for me, UTC :) ) and whatever the west coast timezone is for the pacific or something?)

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    Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

    Ah, but there's the confusion - If Atlantic Standard Time is 4 hours behind GMT/UTC, and we are currestly observing British Summer time, which is 1 hour ahead of GMT/UTC, then does that make 5PM AST actually 10PM BST?

    I ask this, because AST is a timezone that also observes daylight savings to the best of my knowledge, and so currently, times that are actually 4 hours behind our BST should be listed as ADT (Atlantic Daylight Time).

    Confusing, yes?

    Even more so when the special disturbance statement was given an EDT time, and advised the time of the next advisory in AST!

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