Autumn And Winter

[shuggee]

Continue your LRF and other winter-type discussions here

[Thunder Snow]

...................Erm will it snow in Carlisle.

Sorry

[Red Raven]

probably not but i hope it snows in lorton

[Guest Daniel]

There is a quite a high chance that this winter could well be one of the most coldest ones in history. Possibly as cold as the worst ones of the last century or even as cold as some of the 16th and 17th centurys. The reason behind this forcast is the due to a cool August this year following a very hot July. This August may be one of the collest and dullest in recent times and this follows a record breaking hot July. Looking back through the temperture record for Central England. when there been a hot July followed by a cooler August the following winter in most cases have been very cold. This is what happened in 1794/95 winter. That winter was one of the coldest of the little ice age period with the mean for Jan as low as -3.1. Yet that came after a warm early summer of 1794. July 1794 had a mean of 18.1. which was very warm. But August 1794 was only 15.5. This summer look very much the same. Atumn 1794 was cool and wet. There was also a same pattern in 1683. with July being 15.5 and August 13.5. The 16th and 17th centuries were a time of hot summers and cold winters which ment the the moderating Atlantic influence was quiter and in winter there were more east winds and in summer more high pressures bringing heat. Now I am not saying this winter will be severe but there a good chance that it will. It all depends on were the blocking highs are and how active the Atlantic will be.

[kippure]

It all depends on were the blocking highs are and how active the Atlantic will be.

Thats the same with every winter....

[Guest Mr_S]

do you work for a certain un-namable site? :lol:

[kippure]

Heres some cold weather here, :lol:

Dont worry daniel it wont be long now :lol:

[MP-R]

Heres some cold weather here, :lol: :lol:

Dont worry daniel it wont be long now :lol:

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Believe it when I see it

[Thundery wintry showers]

The best winter forecast I've seen so far was issued by acbrixton in the General Chat area. It's worth a look.

[Snowyowl9]

In other words it`s going to be a mixed winter

Very funny forecast :lol:

S9.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

The Thames will freeze over by Christmas.

What are you looking at me like that for?

Here's the link to acbrixton's forecast.... "Christmas: widespread snowfall"

[johnholmes]

to MPR

PLEASE will you delete most of your signature. You last post had no text but took up over a page on my screen.

By all means show a link to your site, if you have one, otherwise please just post an update now and then and leave your signature empty of all the data.

many thanks if you will

John

another way Michael would be to have a blog with all that data in?

j

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Blogspot is free and easy to set up.

[conor123]

Not expecting much this winter, just warmer SST meaning heavier

& much more snow showers especially fro easterly's as the northsea does seem to be very warm atm.

[Snow Queen one]

Well i am hoping for more snow this year than last year. I got hardly any here.

I like the cold but not too cold for too long. But this year has been unusual so i don't see any reason why we should not have lots of snow. We seem to be suffering far more extreams this year.

[TEITS]

There is a quite a high chance that this winter could well be one of the most coldest ones in history. Possibly as cold as the worst ones of the last century or even as cold as some of the 16th and 17th centurys. The reason behind this forcast is the due to a cool August this year following a very hot July. This August may be one of the collest and dullest in recent times and this follows a record breaking hot July. Looking back through the temperture record for Central England. when there been a hot July followed by a cooler August the following winter in most cases have been very cold. This is what happened in 1794/95 winter. That winter was one of the coldest of the little ice age period with the mean for Jan as low as -3.1. Yet that came after a warm early summer of 1794. July 1794 had a mean of 18.1. which was very warm. But August 1794 was only 15.5. This summer look very much the same. Atumn 1794 was cool and wet. There was also a same pattern in 1683. with July being 15.5 and August 13.5. The 16th and 17th centuries were a time of hot summers and cold winters which ment the the moderating Atlantic influence was quiter and in winter there were more east winds and in summer more high pressures bringing heat. Now I am not saying this winter will be severe but there a good chance that it will. It all depends on were the blocking highs are and how active the Atlantic will be.

Interesting post Daniel but im afraid our climate is alot more complicated than just using past weather to predict our future weather. Im pretty sure if I check back to the records I could find many similiar occurences where a hot July/Cool August produced a mild winter. If you look back as recent as our last proper cold winter 95/96 you will see that both July/August in 1995 were hot & sunny and inactual fact August was one of the hottest,sunniest on record.

[Stratos Ferric]

Daniel, can I check something please. When was the last time you didn't presage a winter season with some doom laden prediction for a historically, if not unprecedentedly, cold winter?

Your assertion that August may be one of the dullest and coolest of modern times is far from sound. There's a better than evens chance that not only will August be slightly warmer than normal, but that it will be the "coolest" since, er, oooh, August 2005. Holey moley...

Besides which (and I'm sorry to say this but I'm going to because this is a recurrent pattern in your postings) there is no substance, and some outright errors in your post.

"The 16th and 17th centuries were a time of hot summers and cold winters ".

Winters were cold but summers most certainly were not consistently hot during the "little ice age".

"when there been a hot July followed by a cooler August the following winter in most cases have been very cold"

I have run an analysis looking for Julys in the CET where the outturn for the month was >2C above the thirty year mean, and August was at or below its thirty year mean. There have been 6 such occurences as follows:

1714 - following winter very slightly cooler than the average across the whole CET but mild by the standard at the time.

1757 - folllowing winter cool, but about normal for the standard at the time.

1783 - ...cold, even by the standards of the time. There was though, an even colder February four winters prior, without the July-Aug pattern we're looking for.

1818 - slightly cool by 300+ year average standard, but above average for the period.

1921 - about average by modern standards and by the standards of the time.

1934 - above average.

So, your stats, such as they are, really don't stack up. In the above list there is one instance of a cold winter, by any standards, following a very warm July - average August. You will find a far better correlation of cool or average summers with cold winters, and with good reason. The seasons are not independent and the principles of heat flux are tightly bound. A cold winter during a warm climatic phase is far less likely than a cold winter during a cold phase: and remember, right now we're coming from the warmest baseline in the measured record - whatever IceAgeNow might claim.

You need to learn, when looking at stats, not to stop looking once you think you have proven your case. The fact that you find a particular correlation (even though, in this case it is clear that you haven't actually found one) does not mean that there is not a better one to be found, not does correlation in any case prove causation.

Keep on banging the drum for the next ice age if you must, but at least get some decent facts.

[SMU]

Daniel, can I check something please. When was the last time you didn't presage a winter season with some doom laden prediction for a historically, if not unprecedentedly, cold winter?

Your assertion that August may be one of the dullest and coolest of modern times is far from sound. There's a better than evens chance that not only will August be slightly warmer than normal, but that it will be the "coolest" since, er, oooh, August 2005. Holey moley...

Besides which (and I'm sorry to say this but I'm going to because this is a recurrent pattern in your postings) there is no substance, and some outright errors in your post.

Winters were cold but summers most certainly were not consistently hot during the "little ice age".

I have run an analysis looking for Julys in the CET where the outturn for the month was >2C above the thirty year mean, and August was at or below its thirty year mean. There have been 6 such occurences as follows:

1714 - following winter very slightly cooler than the average across the whole CET but mild by the standard at the time.

1757 - folllowing winter cool, but about normal for the standard at the time.

1783 - ...cold, even by the standards of the time. There was though, an even colder February four winters prior, without the July-Aug pattern we're looking for.

1818 - slightly cool by 300+ year average standard, but above average for the period.

1921 - about average by modern standards and by the standards of the time.

1934 - above average.

So, your stats, such as they are, really don't stack up. In the above list there is one instance of a cold winter, by any standards, following a very warm July - average August. You will find a far better correlation of cool or average summers with cold winters, and with good reason. The seasons are not independent and the principles of heat flux are tightly bound. A cold winter during a warm climatic phase is far less likely than a cold winter during a cold phase: and remember, right now we're coming from the warmest baseline in the measured record - whatever IceAgeNow might claim.

You need to learn, when looking at stats, not to stop looking once you think you have proven your case. The fact that you find a particular correlation (even though, in this case it is clear that you haven't actually found one) does not mean that there is not a better one to be found, not does correlation in any case prove causation.

Keep on banging the drum for the next ice age if you must, but at least get some decent facts.

Good Post in a thread that undoubtably will be reposted over & over again in the run up to the Winter-

I would like to 'Chip' in here & say that with all the neatly presented graphs by SF & the statistical information as well it should be quite clear that we 'SHOULD' continue along that uniform pathway towards winter oblivion-

The consistent growth in Mean CET temperature observed over the last 50 years or so would have one think that nothing can stop this irreversable process-

by I do believe we are somewhat at a juncture-

If the weather stuck by some form of consistent rule then we would be seeing a polar front gradually reatreating further & further back towards the artic circle- we are only possibly talking maybe an eigth or quarter degree movement northwards per annum, allowing the likes of the Bermuda/Azores high belt to expand & influence our weather more often.-

Also we 'SHOULD' be seeing a more active jet- Both with higher Sea temperatures influencing the gradients & a significantly Colder Stratosphere driving a faster Circumpolar vortex -

This then should equate as mentioned to the UK CET rising further on a uniform trend-

So why isnt it-

The last 4 years has seen a gradual decline in CET-

http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleyce.../HadCET_act.txt

& Assuming August this year matches last year we are on course for a Colder year- mpossibly in the region of the low tens-

What we cant yet acertain is whether this decline is just an outlier in the overall run or whether the GW factor is changing the forcing to such a degree that things like the Jet stream are Actually slowing to allow for blocking-

We can also ALMOST say that there are NO analogues to this year- its all very well pattern matching the correlated years in terms of CETs ( Which is possibly the worst thing-) & even pattern matching the Teleconnections isnt bulletproof because who actually knows what the GW factor is doing>???

If you asked me today what this WINTER is going to be like from observing this years flow patterns alone you would HAVE to go with below average for Central Europe & Possibly even Western Europe including the BI-

& the counter balance being that Greenland, Iceland would be well above Average-

Its something im sure we will be discussing in forthcoming weeks especially IF August comes in BELOW average at 16.1- & All hell hype will break loose if we get under 14 for Sept...

As for the debate to getting a CET for 1C thats very tricky- & if we assume the globe has risen by at least 1c then thats the same as asking for a freezing month which has a return of ~ 1 in 20 years-

Its possible, however I think the goalposts have moved as such that the new freezing month is a 2C CET.....

I would be VERY Surprised that by the end of Winter 2008/9 we hadnt had one of those Months & if thats the case we can kiss goodbye to anyhope of a significantly below average Winter Month again....

S

[mezzacyclone]

"Possible Very Severe Winter On The Way"

Off we go and its only the bloomin end of August! where crying wolf has cast another coming winter to the annals of history as being relatively snowless and mild, I`d request one year that everyone would just leave it to chaos theory as it should be, then analyze the setup when it comes via the NW experts? Unless someone could provide some concrete evidence currently on hand to back-up the ridiculous topic title then lets stick to the short term weather conditions and whats on CBBC.

[s4lancia]

acbrixton, that is sheer genius. Absolutely hilarious, yet so true

The Thames will freeze over by Christmas.

What are you looking at me like that for?

Here's the link to acbrixton's forecast.... "Christmas: widespread snowfall"

[johnholmes]

hi

re the post by Steve quoting that the annual mean has fallen for the past 4 years.

True

2002-2005 = fall from 10.60 to 10.44

Since 1898 only 3 other periods have copied that; ie. a fall for 4 consecutive years, with 2 of 5 years

the two of five were

1938-1942=10.18 to 9.05

and 1898-1902 from 10.07 to 8.83.

So if we have only had 2 occasions of 5 consecutive years with the annual CET falling, what is the chance for this year to follow suit?

Come on you statisticians.

Then what, does it prove we MAY be going to get a colder winter?

Again, come on you people with the ability to use this kind of data to predict ahead.

John

[carinthian]

There is a quite a high chance that this winter could well be one of the most coldest ones in history. Possibly as cold as the worst ones of the last century or even as cold as some of the 16th and 17th centurys. The reason behind this forcast is the due to a cool August this year following a very hot July. This August may be one of the collest and dullest in recent times and this follows a record breaking hot July. Looking back through the temperture record for Central England. when there been a hot July followed by a cooler August the following winter in most cases have been very cold. This is what happened in 1794/95 winter. That winter was one of the coldest of the little ice age period with the mean for Jan as low as -3.1. Yet that came after a warm early summer of 1794. July 1794 had a mean of 18.1. which was very warm. But August 1794 was only 15.5. This summer look very much the same. Atumn 1794 was cool and wet. There was also a same pattern in 1683. with July being 15.5 and August 13.5. The 16th and 17th centuries were a time of hot summers and cold winters which ment the the moderating Atlantic influence was quiter and in winter there were more east winds and in summer more high pressures bringing heat. Now I am not saying this winter will be severe but there a good chance that it will. It all depends on were the blocking highs are and how active the Atlantic will be.

Hi Daniel,

A brave call there. Casting my memory back to this time of year way back in 1962, I do record a changeable August according to my weather log which I kept in those days. The winter to follow was the coldest of the last century in England and Wales. To obtain a severe winter, a early polar cold pool has to form in the region between the pole its self and the North Barent , to be followed by an Autumn that has an established Greenland High

that can link to the winter Siberian High. Looking back on past charts indicate a good resemblance to pre 62/63 freeze. So you may not be too far off the mark in what you post, but predictions always have away of back firing.

However, don't be put off with expressing your thoughts.

C

[Frosty.]

The best hopecast I have ever read, unfortunately the greenhouse gasses have destroyed any chances of a return to classic winters of the 1960's, 70's and early 80's. Indeed, if the climatic experts are to be believed we will all boil to death this winter and every winter thereafter........

karl

[Damien]

While this perfectly valid warming theory seems true for Britain, it does not necessarily hold true for the whole of Europe. Do you remember the 2002/03 winter in Europe, when the Baltic Sea froze over for the first time since about 1947? Do you remember last winter, which was very cold in Europe, and the coldest since about 1979 or something for Western Russia? What if this was to reoccur again before 2010? Would that still work against the favour of the British Isles getting another cold winter? What if there was to be another February 2005-type event or two in Britain before 2010, with only lucky areas of the UK getting snowfall as high as January 1987 (the North York Moors; Kent; ("only") the best since January 1997/October 2000 here)? Would all hope still be lost then?

(You might want to dig up Stephan's great posts on TWO, because he holds this theory valid and it served him *rather* well last winter.)