Autumn And Winter

[Hiya]

I know the stats don't deliever the snow on the ground, but they can instill a bit of confidence do they not?

Since:

1. It links up with the forcasts for the year to end with a cool autumn, therefore continuing the downward trend.

2. You can clearly see that its not always hit and miss with regards to a cooler winter, so just now the conditions are good for them stats point of view for a better winter.

3. you can see from the last 15 years that the pattern is a bit disrupted, for whatever reason, and we also saw the mysterious post feb-2005 change, who knows what thats gonna bring? But i think we'll know by the end of this winter.

[Snowyowl9]

Very snowy on 25 November last year with 4 inches of snow on the grass (properly measured) and closer to 2 inches on other surfaces.

The heaviest snow fell between 6-8am in the morning, a good time for snow sticking.

Very unusually the snow stuck around to give a snow day for 3 days before gradually thawing away.

Some photos on the BBC website

http://www.bbc.co.uk/wales/southwest/sites...ow05_2.shtml?13

You did very well from that setup,it was more of a straight northerly which we don`t do so well from,n.w. are better.

When was the last time you had that amount of snow in any previous novembers?

Those links don`t seem to work that Helly Hanson put up.

S9.

[Snowyowl9]

If we were to get a significant northerly this November, it would be the first time we'd had northerly incursions in three successive Novembers since 1978/79/80.

Certainly not impossible, but it would be interesting if it did happen.

There was a northerly in november 1977 also, but not quite as impressive as those 3 years you mentioned.

I wouldn`t of thought anyone could remember this one.

S9.

Edited August 27, 2006 by Snowyowl9

[Thundery wintry showers]

I actually mentioned it in another thread in a post about lack of cold sources- just by complete coincidence, though I believe it was Mr Data who first brought it to my attention.

The airflow of the November 1977 northerly was originally cold, and brought significant snow in places, but look at the mild air coming in from the Arctic!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119771120.gif

There was also another northerly earlier in that month, though I get the impression that it was marginal:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119771116.gif

Whatever, that does make it four Novembers in a row that had northerly outbreaks...

[J10]

You did very well from that setup,it was more of a straight northerly which we don`t do so well from,n.w. are better.

When was the last time you had that amount of snow in any previous novembers?

Those links don`t seem to work that Helly Hanson put up.

S9.

I am slightly further west than you and that makes all the differences in NNW flows as in November 2005, the distribution of the snow is shown well on the acrchive radar on Net Weather for that date.

Before this the last time we had any real snow in November was in 1994/95 (so long ago I cannot remember the year exactly), and that gave a slight covering, so November snow here is very rare.

The links you mention are now working, there was a problem with the wetterzentrale website earlier.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

There was a northerly in november 1977 also, but not quite as impressive as those 3 years you mentioned.

I wouldn`t of thought anyone could remember this one.

S9.

Yes I can....it was a very mild first half to the month and then turned dramatically colder...sound familiar? TWS yes it was only snow for some. Anyway that led to a highly variable winter with intense wind storms [Christmas Eve westerly] to southrly winds with very mild temps to amazing snow storms for Scotland in Jan and the South West in Feb. I come from Swansea and in feb we had drifts over the front door of the house....yes drifts of 8 feet plus . What a topsy turvy winter that was....and what one we have coming

BFTP

Sorry folks clocking off for................love island

Edited August 27, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Thundery wintry showers]

I am slightly further west than you and that makes all the differences in NNW flows as in November 2005, the distribution of the snow is shown well on the acrchive radar on Net Weather for that date.

Before this the last time we had any real snow in November was in 1994/95 (so long ago I cannot remember the year exactly), and that gave a slight covering, so November snow here is very rare.

The links you mention are now working, there was a problem with the wetterzentrale website earlier.

It was probably 1996, as there were northerlies on the 17th-18th, a frontal snow event for most on the 19th, and then predominantly NW winds between the 20th and 23rd with wintry showers for the north and west, and then another frontal snow event on the 24th (though more marginal than that of the 19th).

I'd be surprised if most of Wales didn't get some real snow that month.

1995 had a northerly toppler on November 17th, but wintry showers were mainly confined to the east.

[Guest Viking141]

Nice bit of snow up here 24th/25th November 2005. Between 3-4 inches but the first time there had been snow in November for a few years before that.

[The Eagle]

Nice bit of snow up here 24th/25th November 2005. Between 3-4 inches but the first time there had been snow in November for a few years before that.

Got a decent amount for November here too. I was very supprised. Certainly not 3 or 4 inches though, more like an inche in total. Would love a setup like that again though admittedly it was useless for Eastern parts of England.

[Snowyowl9]

Thanks for all the replies very interesting,I never checked all of the 1977 nov charts,they look much more impressive now TWS. than that one I put up,I see what you mean with the mild air coming in, it happened them days aswell then.

I`m surprised anyone would remember that november BFTP,I wish I could remember much more from the late 70`s or even better go back in time

So that was an unusual event for snow in your part of the world and cornwall for november in a normal winter let alone in the G.W age.

I`ll check those radar archives Jackone.

S9.

Edited August 28, 2006 by Snowyowl9

[moses]

The best hopecast I have ever read, unfortunately the greenhouse gasses have destroyed any chances of a return to classic winters of the 1960's, 70's and early 80's. Indeed, if the climatic experts are to be believed we will all boil to death this winter and every winter thereafter........

karl

[Polar Continental]

Morning everyone,

The 0z GFS in FI continues to project out some very impresive cold pooling for so early in the season over Greenland, if this were to come off, it bodes very well for our comming winter.

Paul

[BrickFielder]

One thing is starting to look very clear is that we should expect warm anomalies along the eastern seaboard of the united states for most of the Autumn and into the winter.Current SST anomaly charts show temperatures 3 Degrees above average off the eastern coast of Canada.

No matter which set of SST forecasts you look at that anomaly is likely to stay there or move north east as theory would predict.

This suggest a positive NAO for the autumn and into the winter much as the met office is suggesting.

Met Office Prediction

This suggests low pressure systems developing off the coast of the US which will swing north and fade as they cross Iceland. The end result is weakening atlantic weather systems crossing the UK for much of the Autumn. This will keep things cool and at times damp but prevent any real cold reaching the UK. Forecasts are now suggesting a fairly mild autumn.

There is some hope that further into winter damp and dreary conditions may change to much colder weather. The number of hurricanes this year has been pretty limited which means that less warm air is transported north and less cold air south. This should make for less mixing and a strong boundary between cold and warm air leading to a strong jet and possibly some very strong storms later into the autumn. It also means that the cold pool to the north should be able to build substancially with the possibility that late winter the UK may spend time to the north of a very southerly jet stream.

Things to watch out for will be very limited frosts during autumn , some strong storms late autumn and early winter and then some heavy snow falls late winter. On the other hand like last winter our weather may be dictated by events over in the Pacific where cold air is likely to spill out of northern asia early autumn causing the jetstream to blast across the pacific. This will limit the build up of cold air, with cold air spilling out over Japan giving them another very snowy winter.This will mean the jet will not go as far south and the UK will likely miss out on the snow.

[johnholmes]

Brick

Can you pse go to the forecasters discussion page please?

tks

John

[Stratos Ferric]

....

There is some hope that further into winter damp and dreary conditions may change to much colder weather. The number of hurricanes this year has been pretty limited which means that less warm air is transported north and less cold air south. This should make for less mixing and a strong boundary between cold and warm air leading to a strong jet and possibly some very strong storms later into the autumn. It also means that the cold pool to the north should be able to build substancially with the possibility that late winter the UK may spend time to the north of a very southerly jet stream.

Things to watch out for will be very limited frosts during autumn , some strong storms late autumn and early winter and then some heavy snow falls late winter. On the other hand like last winter our weather may be dictated by events over in the Pacific where cold air is likely to spill out of northern asia early autumn causing the jetstream to blast across the pacific. This will limit the build up of cold air, with cold air spilling out over Japan giving them another very snowy winter.This will mean the jet will not go as far south and the UK will likely miss out on the snow.

Great call; if I read it right the forecast is either for cold and snowy or not cold and not snowy. I think that covers most bases; lol. Who was the guy who used to commentate on the boat race who one year said "I can't see who's leading; it's either Oxford or Cambridge".

[BrickFielder]

Great call; if I read it right the forecast is either for cold and snowy or not cold and not snowy. I think that covers most bases; lol. Who was the guy who used to commentate on the boat race who one year said "I can't see who's leading; it's either Oxford or Cambridge".

LOL. Dead heat then.

The two options are

1) mild and stormy followed by cold and snowy.

2) mild and stormy followed by mild and damp.

Sea surface temperatures begining to increase around Japan would tend to suggest cyclogenisis towards that area late autumn increasing the chance of option 2 with the jet blasting across the northern pacific.Early high pressure building over siberia suggests another winter with a blocked pattern possibly keeping atlantic systems at bay.

Interestingly as the SST postive anomaly off the eastern seaboard of canada moves eastwards it is likely to push any azores high ridging over the UK. Perhaps we may have some warm weather periods in autumn as a result.

[Polar Continental]

Hi Paul

Yes, nice to see those blues up there

Although current eastern seaboard anomalies unfortunately rather uphold the prospect of potential future cyclogenesis problems I can see the jet riding progressively south in the months to come and there is every chance of cold pooling progressing and intensifying to the north as you suggest in your post. Brickfielders forecast does seem a good early indicator of what may be to come - but it is still early days and there is time for things to change, particularly as the main thrust of winter is still some 4 months or more away.

An unsettled, potentially increasingly stormy autumn looks a good bet at this stage, but we may see the 'whites of its eyes' leading into a much more appealing prospect for the main part of the winter season. In a way it may be, that we have an atlantic pattern that works to a peak of intensity over the autumn and into the start of winter but then blows itself out much as happened in Jan 05 and lead to the more wintry conditions of February - but hopefully on an earlier timetable this time.

There is also the fact that the atlantic has been pretty moribund for most of the period since Feb 05 and despite a few bursts, including the current unsettled spell, one does wonder if the pattern has changed away from the dominant days of the Corridor of Death. The suggestion of LP moving north away from Iceland rather than traversing the GIN corridor and swamping Eurasia with sub-tropical air does also suggest that cold air may again be able to pool to the east under high pressure block as well - much like last year.

All still a bit speculative, at this stage, whichever way you look at it and much time left for developments so certainly no need to worry unduly at this time about what may or may not happen.

Tamara

Hi Tamara,

Thanks for a good interesting post.

Unfortunately the GFS 06z has spoiled the good looks of the 0z and the intense cold pooling has been modified somewhat, I am sure it will be back.

Yes hopefully if this somewhat rare burst of Atlantic activity burns its self out for December, we should get a good shot at winter.

Regarding the jet, as Steve mentioned it has been unusually digging much further south very early this year and as you say it looks like a good indicator for it to take a gradual more southerly course as winter draws ever nearer, what we need is the Jet to take a nice holiday in north Africa and the Mediterranean this winter, as it did during 1962 / 63

I just love looking at those mouth-watering charts.

My thoughts are now leaning towards the positive for this coming winter, we do seem to have several good indicators in our favour suggesting things could potentially give us a good shot at winter, 1, the early cold pooling, 2, as Brickfielder has mentioned, the lack of Hurricane activity, so less very warm air being forced over northern latitudes, and 3, the Jet seems to want to take a much more southerly course very early this year, we will see.

Paul

[Damien]

Brickfielder, didn't the NCEP CFS forecast a similar (if not slightly more intense) warm pool in the Central-North Atlantic last year, and if I remember rightly it never materialised?

[The Enforcer]

The two options are

1) mild and stormy followed by cold and snowy.

2) mild and stormy followed by mild and damp.

I think you've forgotten about the other option, which is:

3) mild and stormy followed by dull, raw and dry.

Regarding the jet, as Steve mentioned it has been unusually digging much further south very early this year and as you say it looks like a good indicator for it to take a gradual more southerly course as winter draws ever nearer, what we need is the Jet to take a nice holiday in north Africa and the Mediterranean this winter, as it did during 1962 / 63

My thoughts are now leaning towards the positive for this coming winter, we do seem to have several good indicators in our favour suggesting things could potentially give us a good shot at winter, 1, the early cold pooling, 2, as Brickfielder has mentioned, the lack of Hurricane activity, so less very warm air being forced over northern latitudes, and 3, the Jet seems to want to take a much more southerly course very early this year, we will see. :lol:

Whilst I can see the logic behind the factors that currently appear to be indicating a colder winter in store, these are only a few of the factors that are relevant. Brickfielder has identified some that indicate a mild start to the winter and others that indicate that it will then stay mild. Experience tells me that winter never fits into nice neat little patterns and colder intervals can spring up at any time and usually with not much notice (n.b. those who rely on T+300 onwards for their analysis) even in the mildest of winters [the impact of such incursions is another debate]. This also works in reverse to use the example of 2005/2006 colder and dry, but with a mild, frostless January. I certainly haven't seen any signals of the kind that would generate a 1962/63 type of winter, so that kind of comparison is probably premature.

Edited August 29, 2006 by The Enforcer

[anvil]

I will eat my hat if this winter provides a below average CET or above average snowfall. You can find statistics and forecasts to show whatever you want them to show at this stage as it is all speculation. The only fact that will count is once winter is over and yet again it has thrown more weight behind the argument that winters in the UK are not the same as they were prior to the 90's.

[Weather-history]

I will eat my hat if this winter provides a below average CET or above average snowfall. You can find statistics and forecasts to show whatever you want them to show at this stage as it is all speculation. The only fact that will count is once winter is over and yet again it has thrown more weight behind the argument that winters in the UK are not the same as they were prior to the 90's.

You know anvil, you are one member that when you posts and its rarely, I go "remember this person". You were the one who said back in early January 2005 there would be no snow for southern parts of the UK for the rest of that winter but then came late Feb and early March '05.

Personally, I don't know what this coming winter will turn out but I won't be daft enough to say at the start of January to say no snow now for the rest of this winter

[Anti-Mild]

You know anvil, you are one member that when you posts and its rarely, I go "remember this person". You were the one who said back in early January 2005 there would be no snow for southern parts of the UK for the rest of that winter but then came late Feb and early March '05.

Personally, I don't know what this coming winter will turn out but I won't be daft enough to say at the start of January to say no snow now for the rest of this winter

It can be restated until you are blue in the face but there will never be a forecast issued with any chance of accuracy after 1 week. Sure you can pattern match and suggest a possible outcome based on SST's or El Nino or NAO or solar output but at best it is an (semi) educated guess.

The truth is that this winter stands a better than average chance of being milder than the 71-00 average, with some snow and frosts. In the same breath it could be the coldest winter since 78-79 although this is very unlikely. At the end of the day nobody knows and I would suggest that most long range winter forecasts posted on Net Weather (mine included) are greatly influenced by personal preferences.

AM

[TEITS]

It can be restated until you are blue in the face but there will never be a forecast issued with any chance of accuracy after 1 week. Sure you can pattern match and suggest a possible outcome based on SST's or El Nino or NAO or solar output but at best it is an (semi) educated guess.

The truth is that this winter stands a better than average chance of being milder than the 71-00 average, with some snow and frosts. In the same breath it could be the coldest winter since 78-79 although this is very unlikely. At the end of the day nobody knows and I would suggest that most long range winter forecasts posted on Net Weather (mine included) are greatly influenced by personal preferences.

AM

Very wise words Anti-mild.

I remember last Autumn reading forecast's for the US based on SST's that they were going to have a very harsh winter and yet apart from early Dec the rest of the winter was above average. I believe that when it comes to a LRF you have as much chance of being correct by using instincts than science. For example if somebody posted a forecast in Nov for Dec/Jan/Feb based on instincts and then you compared this forecast to someone who used SST's/teleconnections, both IMO would have an equal chance of being correct.

This summer has been a very good example because back in May WIB suggested a very warm/hot June & July and by what I read a majority of his forecast was based on instincts and yet he was the only one to be right on this forum.

Im sure science is the answer to a successful LRF but at the moment nobody IMO has enough understanding of SST's/Teleconnections etc to understand how they affect our climate. Due to so many factors going into making our climate instincts is just as good as science in making a successful LRF at the moment.

Edited August 30, 2006 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Snowly does it]

Very wise words Anti-mild.

I remember last Autumn reading forecast's for the US based on SST's that they were going to have a very harsh winter and yet apart from early Dec the rest of the winter was above average. I believe that when it comes to a LRF you have as much chance of being correct by using instincts than science. For example if somebody posted a forecast in Nov for Dec/Jan/Feb based on instincts and then you compared this forecast to someone who used SST's/teleconnections, both IMO would have an equal chance of being correct.

This summer has been a very good example because back in May WIB suggested a very warm/hot June & July and by what I read a majority of his forecast was based on instincts and yet he was the only one to be right on this forum.

Im sure science is the answer to a successful LRF but at the moment nobody IMO has enough understanding of SST's/Teleconnections etc to understand how they affect our climate. Due to so many factors going into making our climate instincts is just as good as science in making a successful LRF at the moment.

I'd agree with all of this.

I think in terms of long range you can currently get some of the goodies you need but not all. For example, its possible to see what sort of cold pooling exists and what kind of pattern the various oscillations are on. From this you can tinker with probabilities. Lets say there is a huge amount of cold pooling around Greenland or Siberia in November. From that its no great shakes to conclude that the chances of a colder than average December/Jan etc are higher than were they not there, it falls from there to the right conditions/blocks etc to allow the cold air to advect to our shores. I remember Dawlish used to play the 70/20/10 card for predictions - ok, thats probably not a bad call on the past 20 years evidence but it needs tailoring to whats going on at point of guesstimate. Generalisations can be made with probabilities of them being correct increasing the nearer the mark you get. Further than that it really is pinning the block on the landmass.

Instincts are fair enough, if I see birds flying south in mild conditions earlier than they usually would I would still plump for colder conditions on their way despite LRFs to the contrary!

[Stratos Ferric]

Very wise words Anti-mild.

...I believe that when it comes to a LRF you have as much chance of being correct by using instincts than science. For example if somebody posted a forecast in Nov for Dec/Jan/Feb based on instincts and then you compared this forecast to someone who used SST's/teleconnections, both IMO would have an equal chance of being correct.

...

Im sure science is the answer to a successful LRF but at the moment nobody IMO has enough understanding of SST's/Teleconnections etc to understand how they affect our climate. Due to so many factors going into making our climate instincts is just as good as science in making a successful LRF at the moment.

Couldn't agree more. There are one or two TCs that factor very loosely, but there's a lot of noise in there on the whole. We may tease you about your wallpaper but it's no less robust an approach than many LRF methodologies. I even remember a bloke once who swore by the moon...

It can be restated until you are blue in the face but there will never be a forecast issued with any chance of accuracy after 1 week. Sure you can pattern match and suggest a possible outcome based on SST's or El Nino or NAO or solar output but at best it is an (semi) educated guess.

The truth is that this winter stands a better than average chance of being milder than the 71-00 average, with some snow and frosts. In the same breath it could be the coldest winter since 78-79 although this is very unlikely. At the end of the day nobody knows and I would suggest that most long range winter forecasts posted on Net Weather (mine included) are greatly influenced by personal preferences.

AM :o

Hang on, I won't have it that Daniel is anything but objective in his assessments cut and pastes from IAN regarding the next ice age.

LOL. Dead heat then.

The two options are

1) mild and stormy followed by cold and snowy.

2) mild and stormy followed by mild and damp.

Sea surface temperatures begining to increase around Japan would tend to suggest cyclogenisis towards that area late autumn increasing the chance of option 2 with the jet blasting across the northern pacific.Early high pressure building over siberia suggests another winter with a blocked pattern possibly keeping atlantic systems at bay.

Interestingly as the SST postive anomaly off the eastern seaboard of canada moves eastwards it is likely to push any azores high ridging over the UK. Perhaps we may have some warm weather periods in autumn as a result.

Well, I've been suggesting for the best part of two weeks now that a settled spell is likely "next week" (lol). The longer one type of weather persists (after two days), the greater the likelihood of a change.