Autumn And Winter

[johnholmes]

sounds like a job for Michael F to me!

[Snowly does it]

What would be interesting is if we could actually 'scientifically' test some of these old wives tale type forecasts. Can we take a handful of them and compare what they suggest may happen to what actually does happen this winter? Any takers?

Well, I am happy for people to PM me their 'old wives tales' and the relevant result in their part of the world and then produce an area by area 'old wives forecast'.

[Weather-history]

What would be interesting is if we could actually 'scientifically' test some of these old wives tale type forecasts. Can we take a handful of them and compare what they suggest may happen to what actually does happen this winter? Any takers?

Lets see how true this old weather lore is

"Ice in November to bear a duck, the rest of the winter will be slush and muck."

Here's Novembers with a CET of <3.5 and the following winter CETs

1782 Nov 2.3 Winter 3.2

1915 Nov 2.8 Winter 5.5

1807 Nov 2.9 Winter 2.4

1684 Nov 3.0 Winter 2.7

1851 Nov 3.1 Winter 4.8

1862 Nov 3.2 Winter 5.7

1910 Nov 3.2 Winter 5.0

1740 Nov 3.3 Winter 2.8

1746 Nov 3.3 Winter 4.8

1786 Nov 3.3 Winter 4.1

1919 Nov 3.3 Winter 5.6

1923 Nov 3.3 Winter 3.9

1815 Nov 3.4 Winter 2.4

1871 Nov 3.4 Winter 5.2

Mixed results to be honest

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Flowers bloomin' in late Autumn

A sure sign of bad winter comin'

Here's very mild Novembers with a CET of 8.5 and > and the following winters

1994 Nov 10.1 Winter 5.9

1818 Nov 9.5 Winter 4.1

1938 Nov 9.4 Winter 4.7

1743 Nov 9.3 Winter 3.1

1730 Nov 9.2 Winter 2.5

1817 Nov 9.1 Winter 3.2

1881 Nov 8.9 Winter 5.1

1939 Nov 8.7 Winter 1.5

1821 Nov 8.6 Winter 5.8

1899 Nov 8.5 Winter 3.1

1951 Nov 8.5 Winter 3.9

1953 Nov 8.5 Winter 4.1

1978 Nov 8.5 Winter 1.6

2002 Nov 8.5 Winter 4.7

Again mixed results

[kippure]

The onion skin lore suggests that a thin layer of skin on a onion means that it doesnt need that much protection from the weather. But when its skin grows thicker it needs more protection from the weather, now that could mean increased wet weather or cold weather.

Could it refer to a late growing season into late september?

[Optimus Prime]

What about if the Onions imported from a different country?

[kippure]

Differant climate, differant growth cycle.

[Hiya]

why doesn't someone make an "old wives tales" topic, and in the first post keep track of incoming tales, easy referance and we can all cheak them out this winter in the scientific way suggested above?

[Snowly does it]

why doesn't someone make an "old wives tales" topic, and in the first post keep track of incoming tales, easy referance and we can all cheak them out this winter in the scientific way suggested above?

I think what might also be fun is to try and forecast the prevalent types of weather from the local lore that comes up. If we get a formal old wives forecast it can go in the mix with the others and we'll see where it ranks. If it wins then we can try again for Spring and Summer. Before long we'll have Everton Fox consulting his seaweed for the month ahead!

[moses]

I think what might also be fun is to try and forecast the prevalent types of weather from the local lore that comes up. If we get a formal old wives forecast it can go in the mix with the others and we'll see where it ranks. If it wins then we can try again for Spring and Summer. Before long we'll have Everton Fox consulting his seaweed for the month ahead!

Well said....... Simple truth is that the most reliable method is the most useful .... I wonder if someone could put all the scientific methods and find out which is the most reliable - over last 20 say - cause and effect?

[Damien]

ECPC gives us this:

September:

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_01-04.gif

October:

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_05-08.gif

November:

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_09-12.gif

"December":

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif

Global:

September:

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_05-08.gif

October:

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_05-08.gif

November:

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_09-12.gif

"December":

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif

Edited September 3, 2006 by Damien

[Snowly does it]

Damien, does that global December chart suggest colder than average for the entire Northern Hemisphere?

[frozen_north]

That December chart looks too good to be true as the saying goes with an average temperature that is 4C below the long term average. It does look odd how in December the Northern Hemisphere suddenly is covered in an average of -6C anomalies with large areas having -16C anomalies. The November and October charts look normal whereas December looks like the beggining of a new ice age.

[Damien]

Damien, does that global December chart suggest colder than average for the entire Northern Hemisphere?

Yes, and above average for most of the South.

(Not only that but also milder air above the UK/GIN corridor is a major symptom of predominantly easterly conditions, à la the mid-1990s and more recently (and (in)famously) February-March 2005.

Can you blame Andy for getting excited?

(However Santa better tell him that this lovely picture only lasts 1 week though. )

Edited September 3, 2006 by Damien

[SMU]

Yes, and above average for most of the South.

(Not only that but also milder air above the UK/GIN corridor a major symptom of predominantly easterly conditions, à la the mid-1990s and more recently (and (in)famously) February-March 2005.

Can you blame Andy for getting excited?

(However Santa better tell him that this lovely picture only lasts 1 week though. )

I would ADD 2-4 degrees to that scale on the right to make it look more realistic for the Winter- by the laws of Physics the entire NH cannot be ALL below average-

Im agreeing with the regions of cold though........ & withe Easterlyness assumption rather than Northerly one

S

Edited September 3, 2006 by Steve Murr

[Damien]

I would ADD 2-4 degrees to that scale on the right to make it look more realistic for the Winter- by the laws of Physics the entire NH cannot be ALL below average-

Im agreeing with the regions of cold though........ & withe Easterlyness assumption rather than Northerly one

S

I wouldn't worry about adding 2-4 degrees... next week's run will do that.

Nice to look at though. We'll have to see if the ECPC "dynamic" backs it up when it is released later this week - most likely on Friday. That's a far more important forecast for me; and the last run showed a very mild autumn/winter for indeed most of Europe IIRC.

[Snowly does it]

Yes, and above average for most of the South.

(Not only that but also milder air above the UK/GIN corridor is a major symptom of predominantly easterly conditions, à la the mid-1990s and more recently (and (in)famously) February-March 2005.

Can you blame Andy for getting excited?

(However Santa better tell him that this lovely picture only lasts 1 week though. )

looks like they accidentally shut off the NAD

[Damien]

I wouldn't worry about adding 2-4 degrees... next week's run will do that.

Or maybe not... here's a link to previous weeks I've just looked up:

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif

The general theme is that it usually warms up nearer to the time, but this has been unusually consistent for ECPC this time.

Edited September 3, 2006 by Damien

[frozen_north]

This one http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif is the best out of them. The whole of the Nothern Hemisphere is in a deep freeze, something out of the Day after Tommorow kind of theme. Would be interesting if it happened but it wont.

Edited September 3, 2006 by frozen_north

[kippure]

This one http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif is the best out of them. The whole of the Nothern Hemisphere is in a deep freeze, something out of the Day after Tommorow kind of theme. Would be interesting if it happened but it wont.

Check your link mate

[frozen_north]

Check your link mate

Fixed.

[kippure]

Very cold indeed

[Snowly does it]

Very cold indeed

We just need Ian Holm to declare the genny is on its last legs and we can start panicking!

Really, thats an astonishing LRF, I wonder what they are basing it on?

[kippure]

We just need Ian Holm to declare the genny is on its last legs and we can start panicking!

Really, thats an astonishing LRF, I wonder what they are basing it on?

Start drinking a fine brandy

It seems to be some strange way out variation?

[Snowly does it]

Start drinking a fine brandy

It seems to be some strange way out variation?

Or a 12 year old scotch! I shall not however be toasting Manchester United, nor supporting them by mumbling 'kick it, kick it' at the television. And any RAF guys offering me a trip in their chopper can bog right off!

They've picked up on something and its thrown out that for sure, just a massively cold outlier on the possibilities one assumes. Seriously, that would pretty well screw the Northern Hemisphere up. Sub Zero month for the UK, sub god knows what for the Northern US with absolutely no sign of any way that it would warm for Jan/Feb.

Even my wise avian friends aren;t going that far out on a limb this year!

[Stratos Ferric]

This one http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif is the best out of them. The whole of the Nothern Hemisphere is in a deep freeze, something out of the Day after Tommorow kind of theme. Would be interesting if it happened but it wont.

It does rather give the impression of a disillusioned temp messing with the input data on their last day in the office. I think that chart is stretching the bounds of possibility a little to the extent that if I owned the data set I'm not sure I'd have published it; there is a common sense rule we tend to use about looking at the numbers just to see whether they seem plausible, and if they don't double checking the analysis. However, assuming that the source of these runs IS that rigorous, then it's an interesting looking data set. I can only assume that either a meteor strike is due or else the lid is ablut to blow off Iceland in a rather spectacular Reykjavik flattening sort of a way. I'd file it under "one to watch with amused interest" rather than "one to get excited about" at present.

We just need Ian Holm to declare the genny is on its last legs and we can start panicking!

Really, thats an astonishing LRF, I wonder what they are basing it on?

The next ice age by the look of things. Actually, maybe they've found the link to...naaah, that's just silly...pfff