Tropical Storm Ernesto

[kold weather]

Right well we have a new tropical feature, the title will remain open-ended for the next hour before we have confirmation of how strong it is as Franklin explains:

561

WONT41 KNHC 241912

DSAAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

315 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS

DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM

AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL

STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE

OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Our new system is looknig good right now though its still rather lop-sided however with all the main action in the eastern quadrant with some cold cloud tops though there is a new flare-up in the Sw quadrant. The reason for the displacement of convection to the east of the system is the shear that is still present however the other factors including the wet MJO seems to now be strong enough to over-ride this despite also having some drier air to its west.

track and strength ideas stil lcarry other from the other thread, track should take it further into the Cairbbean and eventually curve around the large HP to its NE, probably curving into the gulf. Will have to be watched closely, if it can avoid the major shear from the ULL to its SW then it could become a pretty powerful hurricane down the road, how powerful is in the lap of the gods to be fair.

[Paranoid]

The report on Wikipedia on TD5 seemed very confused, it didn;t have any information on posistion, intenisty or strength. It says Tropical Depression but has the Tropical Storm Strength colour. Also, none of the other storms had been updated either.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_atlantic...al_Depression_5

[crimsone]

Not even the NHC have decided on the status yet . Wiki surely can't have that info yet.

It seems that 9pm BST has come and gone. Perhaps 5PM AST comes out as 10PM BST after all

Either that, or the NHC is late. (Darn the NHC and their confusing timezones! (see previous thread))

[kold weather]

Ah thats because nothing has been confirmed yet Paranoid, in other words it could be a tropical depression or tropical storm, hence the name of this thread at the current moment.

By the way, the DSHIP model is still taking this upto 80kts before crossing Cuba. If thats true then this one will have to be watched very closely, as well as possibly being the first/second hurricane of the season it could also be quite a danger to the Caribbean islands and then possibly the USA/Mexico after that. As a long range punt I'd guess that Texas is gonig to be most likely to see this sotrm and it'll have to be wached very closely!

Whatever happens, its intresting to see the season come alive just when it should do!

[Gray-Wolf]

And whilst we await the conclusion lets have a peep in the G.O.M. and see just how busy it's getting in there today. One of these days a big storm is gonna decide to be born right in the middle of the G.O.M. just to shock us all!

[Paranoid]

It's been half an hour since the advisory should have been issued. What are they doing over at the NHC? I checked the time zone difference and AST is 4 hours behind us.

[summer blizzard]

Here are the latest models, i just thought i would repeat my thoughts of this system becoming a hurricane late on saturday, being a category 3 intensity by the time it reaches Cuba/Yukatan and peaking as a category 5 before making landfall in Luisiana or Mississipi.

[crimsone]

See my last posts in the other thread Paranoid. AST is GMT -4, but we are in BST. As Atlantic Time observes daylight savings time, the correct timezone should be ADT which is BST -1. - http://www.timeanddate.com/library/abbrevi...nes/na/ast.html

Sufficed to say, it's all a little confusing, and someone should really be telling the NHC as much!

AST is UTC -4. ADT (which is AST + daylight savings) is UTC -3. The NHC seems to be opting to report in AST. Remember that, and it'll be easy to remember that after converting to UTC, you have to add another hour for BST.

Darned rediculous I think, but there you go. I still think they should report in 'Z' as the models do, or at least have a dropdown box to select prefered timezone. lol.

Anyhow...

The NHC has come out with a first advisory for TD5...

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

500 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WORKED LONG AND HARD THIS

AFTERNOON TO CLOSE OFF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE

WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND FOUND ENOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE THIS

AFTERNOON TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE AIRCRAFT

JUST PASSED THROUGH THE CENTER AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS

OF 39 KT...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 30 KT AT THE SURFACE.

ALTHOUGH BARBADOS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT EARLIER THIS

AFTERNOON...THE DIRECTION OF THOSE WINDS SUGGESTED A CONVECTIVE

OUTFLOW OR DOWNBURST NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION.

AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IN THE BANDS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER

INDICATE WINDS THERE ARE ALSO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WITH

THE CENTER ALREADY IN THE CARIBBEAN AND NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE

WINDWARD ISLANDS...NO WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED. HOWEVER...

INTERESTS THERE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS

SUBSIDE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/19. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH

PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING A

WESTWARD STEERING FLOW...AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY IN

PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OTHER KEY PLAYER IS AN

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES

INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THIS TROUGH WILL BE PROVIDING BOTH

WESTERLY SHEAR AND AND A NORTHWARD STEERING COMPONENT. THE GFDL

RESPONDS TO THIS BY GRADUALLY LIFTING THE TRACK AROUND THE UPPER

LOW AND TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FOR THE

MOST PART FARTHER SOUTH AND KEEP THE SYSTEM WEAKER IN RESPONSE TO

THE SHEAR. I AM REMINDED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS CORRECTLY FORECAST

THE DISSIPATION OF CHRIS A WHILE BACK...AND THE GFDL DOESN'T ALWAYS

HANDLE SHEAR WELL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN

OPTION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH A DRY ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS SOME

WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN.

HOWEVER...THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LOW AND IF THIS OCCURS

WOULD RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.

THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH IS BASED ON THE GFS FIELDS...RESPONDS TO

THIS AND TAKES THE CYCLONE UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 60 HOURS.

THE GFDL INTENSITIES ARE LOWER...BUT THIS RESULTS FROM A GFDL TRACK

WHICH IS OVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERS THE SHIPS

GUIDANCE WITH THE MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 12.9N 62.4W 30 KT

12HR VT 25/0600Z 13.2N 65.5W 35 KT

24HR VT 25/1800Z 13.8N 68.0W 40 KT

36HR VT 26/0600Z 14.6N 70.2W 45 KT

48HR VT 26/1800Z 15.5N 72.5W 50 KT

72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.0N 76.5W 55 KT

96HR VT 28/1800Z 18.5N 80.5W 60 KT

120HR VT 29/1800Z 20.5N 85.0W 60 KT

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

NNNN

(My god. After reading that, the've given the timestamp in EDT even after telling us the time to expect it in AST!!!! Argh!!!! Turns out, EDT is the same as AST (GMT/UTC -4), which is BST -5 (?))

[kold weather]

Despite the sat estimates now being all at tropical storm strength the NHC has decided to keep TD-5 at tropical storm strength because of uncertainty about the LLC location. Anyway strcutrue doesn't look too bad on the face of it with a lot of convection on its eastern side right now however as the NHC have noted the LLC may be on the very western extreme of the convection with par tof it exposed though until we get the first visables soon we won't know for sure!

Still TD-5 has got a sheared look no doubt being caused by the ULL to the west which is causing WSW shear it seems and the western side isn't being given any favors by the dry air that is from its days as a tropial wave coming from Africa (Yes that was the dry air that Steve Murr showed a picture off a week or so ago.)

Long term track is a little trciky right now as there are several possible players involved. A weakness will develop in the ridge complex to the north of the system which will allow the system to curve slowly around the outside of the Bermuda high. However equally there are forecast some frontal systems to dip down over Texas at the same time which then afdds yet another variable to the set-up. What is looking more likely now is that TD-5 wil lget into the gulf and probably as a hurricane as well, which will in all likelyhood mean under good condtions some more strengthening with an eventually landfall somewhere between Texas-the Panhandle...yes it really is that uncertain right now. However just t onote the ECMWF model has the depression hitting New Orleans by next Friday but anywhere could see this yet, including Mexico,Yucatan, the Caribbean isl;ands and also the USA.

Finally shear is expected to ease off over the next 24-36hrs and its forecasted to move into slightly more moist profiles as well which should indicate the start of steady strengthening and prehasp even faster strengthening once it gets away frm the pool of lower heat content thats in the eastern/central Caribbean. I don't want to say how strong it could get as its still got survive the hardships over the next 36hrs or so but if it does or even strengthens then the future of this system does look pretty good and it has a massive shot at becoming a pretty powerful hurricane.

[SnowBear]

I think if it can survive the points mentioned by Kold we could see this one skimming the Yucatan, but, probably not making landfall, centre keeping offshore, but land drag probably effecting intensity there, then, a track which takes it anywhere from Mississippi through to the Eastern FL Panhandle.

Intensity? Offshore Yucatan as a Cat 2-3, US landfall as a Cat 3-5.

More gut feelings than anything for now, lots of ifs and buts.

[kold weather]

I really don't want to comment about possible strength til lwe get a much better idea on track as this one could yet go in several different directions. If it gets clsoe to the NW Caribbean hotspot then it should get to major status even before the gulf of Mexico and then what happens there depends on the state of the atmopshere its in. However thats providing shear doesn't cause too many problems over the enxt 36hrs or so.

Anyway strcuture seems to strike me as that of a TS. It's got some impressivly deep convection and espite the center being on the western side of the convection I'd judge this as being at tropical storm strnegth now just thorugh the sheer power of the convective actvity in the mas sof convection. Once the LLC slows down the shear may start to beocme les sof a problem to the system however most moels are indicating the shear will ease away later tommorow from the area and IF it does then TD-5 wil lhave a clean ride through, but as we saw with Chris shear isn't easy to forecast!

[Gray-Wolf]

I don' think this will go all 'Chris' on us. It seems to be being touted as a biggy and the chance that it could enter the Gulf (after hurting Jamaica,West Cuba and the Yukatan) must be troubling those in th southern states. Once again it is a lot of Refineries/platforms to put on standby ready for a storm shutdown and worse still for the states affected by last years big storms.

[kold weather]

This system is quite intresting. It is getting hit harder and harder by shear right now and the convection is still pretty lop-sided, however the sat estimates all agree with this being a tropical storm and so does QuickScat however the problem is the center has become quite hard to find so ther eis a strong possiblty that despite this evidence they won't upgrade it until recon can prove that there are some higher winds in there. My only problem with that is by the time recon gets there convection could be well be on the decline as the shear brefily strengthens for 12-24hrs.

still we'll know soon enough whether Td-5 is going to be upgrade dor not but I'd guess not simply because its no threat to land rght now and they will wiat till recon arrives...whatever the case i'll edit the discussion onto this post.

(Update)Still a tropical depression:

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN

SEA...NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM...

[SnowBear]

Interesting QuikScat, showing a 45knt/51mph wind there amongst all the suspect data.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA

FLIGHT ONE

A. 25/1800Z

B. AFXXX 02GGA INVEST

C. 25/1600Z

D. 14.0N 68.0W

E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2200Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Recon due for take off at 16.00GMT/5pm BST for a forecast fix at 18.00GMT/7pm BST, co-ords 14.0N 68.0W, and then again at

FLIGHT TWO

A. 26/0600Z

B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE

C. 26/0345Z

D. 14.5N 70.5W

E. 26/0500Z TO 26/1000Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Take off, 03.45GMT/4.45am tomorrow morning, forecast fix time at 06.00GMT/7.00am

The suspense!!

[summer blizzard]

000

WTNT45 KNHC 251457

TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS VERY HARD TO LOCATE THIS

MORNING. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS

LOCATED WEST OF THE LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS THAT HAS PERSISTED THROUGH

THE NIGHT...AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS. HOWEVER...A

12Z OBSERVATION FROM SHIP 6ZXG SUGGEST THE CENTER IS FARTHER TO THE

SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A MORE WESTWARD MOTION AT A

SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. ANIMATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS NOT YET

HELPED RESOLVE THIS...AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL

WINDS. THE INITIAL POSITION WILL BE CLOSER TO THAT OF THE

MICROWAVE DATA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35-45 KT...

BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION THE CYCLONE WILL

REMAIN A DEPRESSION ON THIS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13...SOMEWHAT SLOWER

THAN EARLIER. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OR

THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72-96 HR. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH

OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD

KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL

GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS

THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL

WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER CUBA. SOME SPREAD APPEARS

IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 96 HR...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS BUILDING THE

RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN THE CYCLONE

WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A

WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK

IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 96 HR...THEN

SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PERHAPS BECOMING LESS TRICKY. THE

LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD

AND ALLOW AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN

CARIBBEAN. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN

KNOWN TO MOVE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TOO QUICKLY WESTWARD...IT WOULD

REDUCE THE CURRENT 15-20 KT SHEAR AND PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A

HURRICANE IN ABOUT 60 HR AND REACH 87 KT BY 120 HR. GIVEN THE

UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE NEW

INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE OLD FORECAST...CALLING FOR

THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...IF THE

SHEAR DECREASES AS MUCH AS FORECAST...THE CYCLONE COULD BE

SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO

INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE AIRCRAFT FINDS

THE CENTER IN A DIFFERENT LOCATION...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE

FORECAST TRACK COULD BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 13.5N 66.4W 30 KT

12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.2N 68.5W 35 KT

24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 71.1W 40 KT

36HR VT 27/0000Z 15.9N 73.6W 45 KT

48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.9N 76.0W 55 KT

72HR VT 28/1200Z 19.0N 80.5W 65 KT

96HR VT 29/1200Z 21.5N 84.5W 65 KT

120HR VT 30/1200Z 23.5N 87.5W 65 KT

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[kold weather]

Well recon has found winds at 48kts at flight level, which equates to 40kts roughly at the surface, high enough to be classed as a tropical storm however intresting to note that no surface center has been found as of yet which leaves us in an intresting position, if a LLC can;t be found then this ssytem may not even be a tropical depression depsite having TS force winds.

Which may mean that a track adjustment as the NHC state in the latest discussion is needed IF the actual cente ris where I presently think it is, recon wil lno doubt try and sample that section as well.

Update---Vortex message going to come through shortly which means a cetner has been found, going to be intresting to see where it is located!

Still the system has weakened recently as the shear strengthens to its west and it seems like its got to cope with the dry air pocket to its west as well. Probably will be upgraded to TS Ernesto next advisory at 40kts. Shear could be a pretty major problem for the next 12hrs unless the system slows yet more and it'll have a hard 24-36hrs coming up until the ULL moves out of the way to its west, which is occuring now but not fast enough to save the system from being hit.

Vortex data:

URNT12 KNHC 251724

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 25/17:15:20Z

B. 14 deg 04 min N

066 deg 58 min W

C. NA mb NA m

D. 45 kt

E. 48 deg 039 nm

F. 118 deg 048 kt

G. 048 deg 040 nm

H. EXTRAP 1005 mb

I. 23 C/ 304 m

J. 24 C/ 304 m

K. 24 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1 345/ 1

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF303 0205A CYCLONE OB 04

MAX FL WIND 48 KT NE QUAD 17:01:30 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT

[kold weather]

We have a tropical storm everyone:

WHXX01 KWBC 251834

CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060825 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

060825 1800 060826 0600 060826 1800 060827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 68.9W 16.0N 71.1W 17.2N 73.3W

BAMM 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 69.5W 16.0N 71.8W 17.0N 74.2W

A98E 14.1N 67.1W 14.8N 69.8W 15.6N 72.2W 16.5N 74.5W

LBAR 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 69.5W 16.2N 71.8W 17.2N 74.2W

SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 59KTS

DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

060827 1800 060828 1800 060829 1800 060830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 18.3N 75.7W 19.6N 80.7W 20.2N 85.9W 21.2N 90.7W

BAMM 18.2N 76.7W 19.9N 81.5W 21.0N 86.1W 22.2N 90.0W

A98E 17.7N 77.0W 19.6N 82.4W 21.2N 87.7W 22.6N 92.2W

LBAR 18.3N 76.6W 20.9N 81.0W 22.4N 85.2W 24.0N 88.9W

SHIP 68KTS 78KTS 81KTS 82KTS

DSHP 68KTS 72KTS 74KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 67.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 64.4W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 61.6W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Anyway despite this upgrade the organisation of tropical storm Ernesto has really decreased recently, we've seen the shear really power-up over the storm ansd the LLC has de-coupled from the powerful mid-level circulation...in other words remember tropical storm Chirs...in that it was doing well till shear smashed it apart!

Still the situation isn't quite as grave as it was for Chris however Ernesto will have to battle hard for the next 24-36hrs to survive because if it doesn't it'll suffer the same fate as Chris...if it survives then expect it to power up in the weestern section ofd the Caribbean but any development will be on hold for a while yet.

[Gray-Wolf]

There is a closed circulation rolling off East Cuba (above Jamaica) at the moment , any way of knowing if this could also develop over the waters south of Cuba?. I haven't read anything about it (as to whether its upper/mid or lower level circulation but the cloud movement looks like its lower) but maybe it could also have some moderating interaction with the shear currently pestering Ernesto to it's East?

EDIT: So it's an upper level low eh? well maybe it could still transfer down when it's over open waters again and allow a L.P. to form at the surface there and challenge the ridge that's pestering Ernesto.......... I just want a hurricane to form really

[kold weather]

That feature Graywolf is also seemingly inflicting some shear on the storm as well which hasn't helped it.

LLC clearly exposed right now with shear. it's abit of a strange storm this one in that it got a strong MLC but a displaced but still fairly strong LLC. Still what is key is that the the MLC can catch up with the LLC. This won't happen unless we see shear cut down over the next 12-24hrs. Intrestingly the SHIPS model is forecasting the shear to drop away tommorow and that needs to be watched. i still think once the shear eases away we've got a possibly powerful system on our hands and it'll still have to be watched in the western Caribbean where it could become a very potent system, depsite how generally messy the system is right now.

so in conclusion, by this time tommorow we should probably start to see shear really decrease and with it the LLC probably re-connecting wit hthe MLC though whether it'll be a Ts or TD is really uncertain.

I'll update tommorow as its going to be a key 24hrs for this system as well as for places such as the gulf..

If it survives then I'd expect a strong system to form from this, if the shear strengthens anymore and doesn't ease off tommorow then this one is going to join TS Chris. If i had to bet I'd say that the center will regain some weak convection tonight though it won't really get better organised until the centers become re-stacked again. Gonig to be very intresting to see how well Ernesto is organised tommorow morning when I get up again.

(ps, finally, recon has found pressure has dropepd a touch, maybe a sign that the shear is easing just a touch and that convection is re-firing to the east of the LLC where the mass from the MLC is present.)

[Gray-Wolf]

It would appear from both Chris and Ernesto that any storm that is to make it into the Gulf is expected to max out very quickly and become a major Hurricane. Are we all just waiting for a good hurricane or are the conditions just so favourable out there at present?

[summer blizzard]

The 22:00GMT advisory shows that pressure fell again to 1004mb, if is dropping 1mb every 4 hours in strong shear, personally i expect to see some of the insane pressure drops we saw last year.

[Calrissian]

Aye, in terms of the pressure drops.

My fave. link at moment http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Look at how low it is feasible for any storm to be in the GOM.

[Kain]

There seems to be a hell of alot of sheer about this year, any reason for this?

Kain

[rob5559]

hmmmm, any chance of this heading the states at all, if so any ideas yet what strength it could be if it hits?

[summer blizzard]

In terms of the systems track, it is certain to hit the mainland USA, as for strength, i am expecting a category 5 hurricane although i would say the more likely prediction would be for a category 3/4 as the system may hit Cuba.