Tropical Storm Ernesto

[crimsone]

By that time, Ernesto should be making a US landfall, and so depending where in Cuba that is, it Ernesto should be clear. That said, that doesn't allow for the possibility that he could potentially stall as does happen sometimes, but whetever the case, expect turbulence.

[SnowBear]

Quick question for the Hurricane experts ... Im flying out to Varadero on Thursday (31st August). Can I expect any problems from Ernesto or will he be long gone?? Thanks,

Aye, should be clear from that area BUT, if Ernesto makes a Cuban-Varadero area landfall or stalls somewhere nearby, there could be damage, so best to keep aware on here and in the news, and also keep in contact with your flight operator incase of any cancellations/alterations.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

Latest models taking into account now the jolt northwards, worst that could happen now as Kold said earlier, a complete shift into the Bahamas, and basically becomes a Bahama Buster, but already at strength, shooting the Keys and into the Gulf as a major.

Edited August 27, 2006 by SnowBear

[kold weather]

Reevesie, much depends on how far along the Cuban coast Ernesto makes landfall. At the very least do expect some disruption of some sorts, if only its small things. Snowbear, the Bahama buster idea is a possiblty however its worth noting that NO model brings Ernesto through that way and indeed the ridge thats to the north od Ernesto seems to be building back again as I stated in my last post according to that steering current charts, this should send it back WNW and indeed recon estimates have shown that over the past 2hrs its been on a WNW track and has only gone slightly notrth of its position a few hours ago which suggest sits back on that WNW track that the models and NHC expect.

Should make Cuban landfall western most edge of the sticking out section of eastern Cuba (tohugh that'll be very tight indeed.), then contniue moving WNW/NW making a second landfall in central/western Cuba sometime late tommorow, emerging back into the gulf to re-strengthen again. I expect the major landflal of Ernesto to occur with Ernesto being probably close to major hurricane status, at a guess somewhere in the 100-110mph range is what I'd take a guess at given heat cotnent and all that stuff.

(ps, GFs has shifted a little to the west again, now making landflal in the eastern panhandle.)

Edited August 27, 2006 by kold weather

[SMU]

The further west it goes ito the Gulf the longer it stays over the loop current.....

Cat 6...??

S

[SnowBear]

Will agree there Kold, latest loops are showing that moving back to the WNW track, guess the question is going to be exactly how the Cuban mainland is going to effect Ernesto, I have a horrible feeling we could see it into the Bahamas area sooner rather than later, so many things at play with this one though.

[SnowBear]

I am plummeting for now, somewhere between the UKMet and AVNO models, entering the Bahamas area a little before the UKMet, but later than the AVNO is showing.

[tinybill]

on itv ceefax its saying there it could be heading for new orleans at poosible 3 to 4 .specking to my a friend huge live there local army have already said it will be a the levels wont cope

[kold weather]

Looking like very little chance of that happening now thankfully Tinybill. instead we could see a possible other major problem and thats a strike close to Tampa.

Intresting to note there seems to be a eyewall forming on its northern side with a clear warm spot evident on the satelite imagery:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_p...N-728W.33pc.jpg

Could well clip Haiti if it takes another NW/NNW jog but the main thing that wil lstop Ernesto is gonig to be land interaction from Cuba but before then its moving into pretty favorable waters with some very high heat content indeed and if that eye pops befor eit makes Cuba then things could get intresting given only light shear and heat content as it is. Large convectibve burst near the center as well at the moment which could well be followed by an eye popping this eveing which wil lbe one to watch. Also recon should be taking off within the enxt fewhours to investigate the hurricane, will probably find it stil lat 75mph but if it does get bette rorganised over the high heat content then possibly they may find it stronger then before.

Edited August 27, 2006 by kold weather

[smich]

Hi all,

The latest sat loops show spectacular Cirrus outflow - really beautiful banding in the NW quadrant.

Must be even more beautiful from below...

.,.if only it didn't foretell an arriving Hurricane

Smich

[summer blizzard]

I have illustrated a chart to show my own thoughts on Hurricane Ernesto...

As you can see, i think that the BAM models have this system clued up, taking into account a lot of factor, i cannot see the weakness develping quick enougth.

[Calrissian]

Poor Florida, you're assuming it is going to literally be wiped off the map?

Damn, I never thought it'd be that strong a storm!

Calrissian: too tired to draw maps

[crimsone]

Poor Florida, you're assuming it is going to literally be wiped off the map?

Damn, I never thought it'd be that strong a storm!

Calrissian: too tired to draw maps

It looks like Cuba won't fare much better! Do you think they'll retire this one if Summer Blizzards forecast proves correct?

Edited August 27, 2006 by crimsone

[Calrissian]

okay, back from lala land now...

So, its Sunday afternoon, what sorta ETA on usa landfall are we looking at ?

I assume everyone is now going with the 'its going to cut east and hit Florida area? If so, next Wed/Thur, or maybe not until the weekend?

Everyone seems resigned to the storm being Cat'3, and I would guess most of you are aware of the whole 'Tampa Bay' scenario, arguably just as worse as the long awaited as the New Orleans one was. What u think ?

--

Calrissian: wondering if STS 115 will get off in time

[Gray-Wolf]

Meanwhile, back at the ranch........is Erny a storm of two halves? all day I have had problems figuring out where the heck he is and all the while the surrounding area becomes a bigger mass of convection (god bless diurnal heating) further adding to my dilemma. The IR shows 2 big areas of convection, I figure Erny is in the front (western) mass, but then..... and if both masses were to join together and we then added in a little of the surrounding convection for comfort then S.B. won't be far off the mark as he'd be as big as half the Caribbean!!!

By nightfall I expect to see a nice little Cat 1/2 storm emerge from the mess and he'll be sat to the SW of Hispaniola/east of Cuba

[kold weather]

Looks like Ernesto has regained a WNW track again as the Bermuda high re-builds back and the ULL weakens and moves away westwards. Anyway its looknig more impressive again now and intrestingly it seems to have shrunk so it looks like it could be a pretty compact tight hurricane which probably explains the higher pressure for its strength.

Still the hurricane has got an eye present even if its not yet visable and its got a fairly decent eyewall and as it passes through warmer waters and its inflow improves again expect the eye to possibly become more evident.

As for SB's track, I think at least till after Cuba it seems pretty solid and I see the reasoning behind it, esp with the slight curve back to the west as the Bermuda high re-establishes as its been doing ove rthe last few hours. It's not gonig to be helped with this system having a small eye, some Trochoidal wobbles are probable which will no doubt mean some wobbles are going to happen which wil lmake tracking this hurricane all the more harder.

GW, I think the mass of convection to its eas tis the left-over remians of the storms 24hrs ago whe nthe storm was sheared quite badly, and since it hasn't really wrapped round it well probably because it is such a tight hurricane in terms of gradient. you are right though GW the first blob of convection is the western most section. It's funny because the anaylsis of the hurricane shows its a very tight wind gradient, depsite the large mass of convection. This tight windfield will not be good if it decides to really ramp-up over the next 24hrs, they tend to undergo rapid intensification if they get some good condtions and this may well yet occur with Ernesto however the good news is that they also tend to weaken over land faster...then power-up quicker when they exit land back into the water!

Edited August 27, 2006 by kold weather

[SnowBear]

Busy time for the Hurricane Hunters this eve/night, we have one mission on their way, looking for a fix time of 18.00GMT/7pm BST.

1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO

FLIGHT ONE

A. 27/1800,28/0000Z

B. AFXXX 0605A ERNESTO

C. 27/1445Z

D. 17.7N 76.8W

E. 27/1700Z TO 28/0000Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

They will be in the area of Ernesto until 00.00GMT/1am BST tomorrow.

We also have a USAF mission and an NOAA mission, looking for fixes at approximately 00.00GMT/1am BST tomorrow. Both of these are taking off around 17.30GMT/6.30pm this evening.

FLIGHT TWO

A. 28/0000Z

B. AFXXX 0705A ERNESTO

C. 27/1730Z

D. NA

E. NA

F. 24,000 TO 30,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE

A. 28/0000Z

B. NOAA9 0805A ERNESTO

C. 27/1730Z

D. NA

E. NA

F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

[tinybill]

okay, back from lala land now...

So, its Sunday afternoon, what sorta ETA on usa landfall are we looking at ?

I assume everyone is now going with the 'its going to cut east and hit Florida area? If so, next Wed/Thur, or maybe not until the weekend?

Everyone seems resigned to the storm being Cat'3, and I would guess most of you are aware of the whole 'Tampa Bay' scenario, arguably just as worse as the long awaited as the New Orleans one was. What u think ?

--

Calrissian: wondering if STS 115 will get off in time

its not looking good dare say all eyes on fox news at the end of the week.Florida could be in a lot of trouble

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks K.w., I've been playing 'catch up' as family duties had my attention for most of today but I think I'm getting up to speed now.

I think we have been treated to the first of many 'trochoidal wobbles' over the past hour or so as the centre seems far more west than its 15:00hrs plot would lead us to believe. Some of that 'shift' will be steering but some must be it 'wobbling like a top' inside its sheath of clouds. I would prefer a more westerly track for a while and then a sharp N NW turn across cuba ( the shortest route of course) but he may just go in between Haiti and Cuba and then pick up the westerly movement of the upper level steering currents to take him on into the Gulf proper. Basically I think we'd all like to see him make it into the Gulf in good shape just to 'test the waters' there.

EDIT: Some of the convection out to Erny's east is being 'dawn into ' him on that eastern side. Would it be possible for him to 'feed' off that convection and increase his diameter/feeding area that way?

Edited August 27, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[kold weather]

Your second option is the one that must really be watched, prehaps more then any other idea simply because if it gets trapped in a WNW track after crossing eastern Cuba then it would have the gulf stream to give it a boost and could yet wreck havoc to the Keys. The short-wave trough that is expected to turn Ernesto to the NE also has to be watched very closely at the moment because I wouldn't rule out the models being too progressive to weaken the ridge and allow it to turn away to the NE. Still without recon the cente ris proving hard to find right now on the visable loops, i do wish it would hurry up and form an eye so we can actually track this system a touch better!

Still it was a good cal lfrom the GFDL which did forecast this more easterly track before any other model.

I'll try to make a map of where i expect it to go soon.

Expect TS watches to come out tonight for the keys given the northerly jog it took today.

Edited August 27, 2006 by kold weather

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm also watching to see how the convection that went up off east Jamaica behaves as this should trace out where Ernies pulling from (his centre?) and also how strong a 'pull' he gives to those cloud tops. The 16:15 vis image clouds things up even futher with his outflow masking all that's going on below. I wish I was patient.........

[kold weather]

Okay heres my ideas, its only a very rough idea and I've rushed this a little but it gives a rough idea of what I think will happen, I wouldn't be too suprised if Ernesto ends up a touch to the west of where I think it'll go which will mean more time over Cuba but more time over the gulf as well. Also while I'm gonig with the models, i wouldn't be at all suprised to see something closed to SB's ideas pull off as well if the trough doesn't dig down as fast as expected.

Remember this is only a rough idea for now that I've done in the space of 5 mins, its not a work of art!

(Expect to see recon *prehaps* find a slightly weaker system given how cloud tops have warmed today, but probably only a touch weaker due to land interaction.)

Edited August 27, 2006 by kold weather

[SnowBear]

On the info we have at mo, I think thats a pretty good call Kold, my thoughts were between the UKMet and AVNO for the exit from Cuba, kinda feel the landfall in the US might be a little further west, maybe Panama City, Tallahassee, possibly even as far as Alabama...some time away as yet though.

Recon should start reporting soon from the area, initial fix time booked for about 7pm BST! Gonna be intersting!

[kold weather]

There's really two options that could happen Snowbear. The first is my forecast for NOW, however its on a knife-edge and a second option is the high strengthens again right away and Ernesto heads westwards right now which means it'll probably move alnog the coast of Cuba.

So many questions to be answered in the next 12hrs, if it contniues on a NW/NNW track then the first option should come into paly. iIf the high strengthens enough to send it on a more WNW/W path. I'm sure this hurricane hasn't dione playing with us and the whole of Florida still has to watch this very closely incase it throws another suprise track in our face!

Generally I'd stick wit hthe NHc forecast for now which would be a very bad forecast for Tampa and the keys as well. Also Ernesto seems slightly weaker, probably at 70mph for now and also expect tropical storm watches to come out for the Keys. With recon in the hurricane at last we should hopefully get a better idea of where the center of Ernesto actually is, because this will allow us to get a better idea of where it gonig and its exact track.

Edited August 27, 2006 by kold weather

[SnowBear]

The page for the latest USAF recon HDOB messeges is here folks..

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropic...tic/SXXX50.KNHC

Later, I will add the pages for the NOAA mission, and also add the various websites etc for latest data to the decoding page I have created, link in my siggy.

There is also ftp access at, ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/

Latest HDOB..

SXXX50 KNHC 271739

AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 19 KNHC

1729. 1745N 07413W 03048 0138 019 006 120 044 006 03233 0000000000

1730 1746N 07414W 03049 0137 023 007 120 052 009 03233 0000000000

1730. 1748N 07416W 03047 0138 019 011 116 056 013 03232 0000000000

1731 1749N 07417W 03049 0138 022 013 112 064 013 03233 0000000000

1731. 1750N 07418W 03049 0139 042 016 104 072 017 03234 0000000000

1732 1751N 07420W 03048 0140 045 017 096 080 017 03235 0000000000

1732. 1752N 07421W 03048 0139 054 017 092 080 018 03234 0000000000

1733 1754N 07423W 03047 0140 057 020 096 078 020 03233 0000000000

1733. 1755N 07424W 03049 0140 065 022 090 084 023 03235 0000000000

1734 1756N 07425W 03047 0139 068 022 090 080 023 03233 0000000000

1734. 1758N 07427W 03049 0139 069 022 090 076 022 03235 0000000000

1735 1759N 07428W 03048 0140 074 021 090 078 021 03234 0000000000

1735. 1800N 07430W 03047 0139 075 020 092 074 021 03233 0000000000

1736 1801N 07431W 03048 0138 077 018 108 062 019 03232 0000000000

1736. 1803N 07432W 03048 0138 071 014 106 070 016 03233 0000000000

1737 1804N 07434W 03049 0140 081 017 092 082 018 03235 0000000000

1737. 1805N 07435W 03048 0141 088 017 088 086 018 03236 0000000000

1738 1806N 07437W 03048 0141 088 015 088 082 016 03235 0000000000

1738. 1808N 07438W 03048 0142 088 016 088 084 016 03236 0000000000

1739 1809N 07440W 03048 0141 089 016 090 080 016 03235 0000000000

;

[Gray-Wolf]

I think I'm having a 'groundhog' moment and should cut and paste yesterdays post from this time but I'm still looking at a storm who seems to change position both by forward motion and by internal re-organization of the centre (if you can discern it at any one time!!). After watching my 'Jamaican export' I'm sure that we'll see a short, westward step has taken place over the past 3hrs or so and that subtly alters the affects that the steering currents can/will have on Ern's track.

The main thing is that I don't see much forward gain being made over the course of the day and ,what appears to me as 'part -stalling' ,is bound to constantly alter where he's headed (as the models plot it).

Until I see him fully formed and acting in the near 'predictable' way an average 'cane acts I'm loathe to embarrass my lack of understanding further by committing to a 'track'. Until he's out of the Caribbean and into the Gulf anything could happen, including him going belly up over Cuba only to reform somewhere in the Gulf with little or no warning!