Tropical Storm Ernesto

[kold weather]

Hmm, looking at satelite right now and i must admit I'm having a hard time thinking this is a hurricane I must admit. It really has lost alot of that very deep convection it had this morning when it was upgraded. Center is still hard to find and even recon is having a hard time closing off a center which is quite intresting. I'd take a guess and say that its probably a 60mph tropical storm right now based on recon reports and despite obvious circulation it seems the center is braod again and may be re-forming and convection is going to have to re-fire soon if Ernesto is to not be downgraded back to a tropical storm!

Seems like land interaction has not helped plus a combo of some slight southerly shear and normal diurnal flare-downs has lead to this system to look quite abit weaker then this morning. I'd guess that this is probably only a breif problem and that it'll re-flare ovcernight.

Graywolf, Ernesto has been quite hard to forecast so far given the shear, multiple center re-locations and track changes with al lthe wobbles and jogs!

(update----WOW, recon has found pressure at...1007mbs, thats massivly weaker then it was a few hours ago, which probably makes that fix very suspect indeed. Amazing if its true and if it is then Ernesto wil lnot be a hurricane come next advisory, i suspect its re-for ming its cente rif that the case and the old LLC is dieing off as the stronger new one forms, that would account for the weakening at that LLC and i dare say land intrusion has really hurt such a small hurricane.)

Edited August 27, 2006 by kold weather

[kold weather]

Confirmation from the models, being started at 50kts which is 15kts down on what was the last advisory, looks like Haiti has caused all kind of trouble for Ernesto but prehaps the biggest problem for it has been deicding where its main central pressure should be located and this has really drained the system so far. Coupled to this and the shear charts show thatshear has rapidly increased to over 20kts over the system, the same as yesterday morning so its hardly suprising given all these factors it has weakened. This rapid weakening will have an impact on the possiblty of surviving Cuba and how strong it'll end up, better news for the resident sin the gulf coast locations and Florida as it means ther eis less chance for a very powerful system once it re-emerges back into the gulf of Mexico after crossing Cuba. Anyway here are the models:

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060827 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

060827 1800 060828 0600 060828 1800 060829 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 17.8N 74.0W 18.9N 75.8W 19.8N 77.4W 20.6N 78.9W

BAMM 17.8N 74.0W 19.0N 76.0W 20.1N 77.8W 21.0N 79.3W

A98E 17.8N 74.0W 18.8N 75.3W 19.8N 76.8W 20.9N 78.4W

LBAR 17.8N 74.0W 18.8N 75.7W 20.2N 77.4W 21.6N 79.1W

SHIP 50KTS 56KTS 64KTS 72KTS

DSHP 50KTS 56KTS 54KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

060829 1800 060830 1800 060831 1800 060901 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.5N 80.4W 23.0N 82.4W 23.9N 83.6W 25.4N 85.8W

BAMM 21.9N 80.6W 23.7N 82.1W 25.5N 81.8W 27.1N 80.3W

A98E 22.6N 79.9W 26.0N 82.7W 28.6N 82.4W 30.7N 78.6W

LBAR 22.8N 80.5W 24.5N 82.1W 25.7N 82.7W 27.0N 83.0W

SHIP 79KTS 86KTS 89KTS 87KTS

DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 37KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 74.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 8KT

LATM12 = 16.8N LONM12 = 72.8W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 8KT

LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 71.2W

WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 55KT

CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 0NM

I hate it when storms do this!!!

Make us all look like idiots but despite this weakening this storm is going to have to be watched ultra-closely for its about to enter water prime for development, I'd guess overnight it'll do what it did last night.

Edited August 27, 2006 by kold weather

[Gray-Wolf]

RAMSDIS Online (ta) says the covection has re-fired just off that peninsula.

[SnowBear]

Lol Kold, there ya was, we ALL were I think, working ourselves up lol

Vortex data indicates the centre is about 50miles south of the Haiti coast, 100 miles SW of Port-au-Prince, that peninsula is causing havoc with Ernesto.

Hehehehe, Kold is so disgusted he has changed thread title to TS already !

[Calrissian]

hahaha.

Seems we're having a little Sunday evening madness. Ernesto is just messing with us, don't underestimate the intelligence of this beast.

Its just teasing a little, dropping to TS strength, before collapsing to 130mph+. Great Sunday night entertainment, even better than Big Brother winners week.

Calrissian: eyes on STS 115

[Gray-Wolf]

Could the body of convection to its east have also started to cause it problems too? (constructive and de-structive waves an' all that) and, in a few hours time we'll find that the system has 're-organised' with the centre forming in the middle of the mass off convection and not to the west of two bodies of convecion. I posted around 'T' time about 'a tale of two storms ' because the eruption to the east was as big as Erns pile, almost like a miror image of each other and maybe they blew each other out but the conditions are still the same as grew them both in the first place so I see no reason why they won't 'refom' as one very broad system. We all know the fuel's there to carry it off now don't we?

If you look at the last frame of the water vapour loop you'll see the 'spot' of convection that I've posted ,courtesy of RAMSDIS, in my last post and it now looks to be in quite a central position to the whole mass of convection.

Edited August 27, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[turna]

take a look at the high sea temperatures between cuba and jamaica, this would cause him to explode back into life

Edited August 27, 2006 by turna

[kold weather]

Well its that sort of new convection that is going to help to keep Ernesto as strong as it presently is now. As for re-formation of the center, I have'nt a clue where the cente ris right now and recon only got a weak fix on it last time so it may well be the case that the cente rmay well re-locate itslef to the east but i suspect that it'll stay in the same placeit is now but just re-strengthen once it gets back into the open waters away from land. As you say Gray wolf, expect the whole system to get much stronger again once the convection really fires up again over the water in the next 12hrs. Despite little decent deep convection it still has got a cracking structure, something that will serve it in good stead if it does decide to blow up in terms of convection over the waters of the Caribbean. If it can weaken as fgast as it did, you vcan bet it can strength as fast as well .that's what you get with such small cored systems!

At least thats if Ernesto wants to play ball, something its not done much off in the last 72hrs!

Edited August 27, 2006 by kold weather

[SnowBear]

URNT12 KNHC 271914

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 27/18:59:10Z

B. 17 deg 49 min N

074 deg 18 min W

C. 700 mb 3139 m

D. NA kt

E. deg nm

F. 248 deg 020 kt

G. 206 deg 057 nm

H. EXTRAP 1007 mb

I. 10 C/ 3047 m

J. 12 C/ 3047 m

K. 4 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1 345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 10 nm

P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 12

MAX FL WIND 30 KT SE QUAD 16:49:20 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

[SnowBear]

[kold weather]

That vortex information is extremely intresting, the LLc has moved nearly due west over the last 1hr or so which will probably save it from making landfall in Haiti and will probably give it another 1hr over sea to re-organise itslef becuase its core is quite messed up right. I suspect that Ernesto is now starting to feel the effects of the ridge given it has gotten weaker and weaker storms tend to move more to the west then stronger storms though this is obviously not the only sole factor in Ernesto westward jog.

Anyway it has had a little flare-up over the last 1hr with a large convective blow-up in the northern section of the system. This convective burs tis going to be key for Ernesto if its to keep itslef from become naked again. Ernesto still doesn't look terrible just yet but its clear that at its strongest right now its only a mid-level tropical storm. Despite the real large weakening in convection its got a cracking outflow and its still looks pretty strong but its gonig to have to lose the shear and the land interaction if its going to strengthen again and even if it does it'll take a good 6hrs to re-organise itslef completely of which by that the Cuban coast won't be far away. system should contniue westwards for a little while longer as the steering currents show:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ds/wg8dlm1.html

However the ridge is supposed to weaken by 72hrs as a trough digs down and moves the ridge to the east as it erodes which is meant to pull Ernesto to the NE.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Can Ernesto stay south of the foot of Cuba? The mountains there will tear it up. If Ernesto can stay south, on a more Wly track, there is a lot of hot water for explosive convection.

Edited August 27, 2006 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[SnowBear]

URNT12 KNHC 272032

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 27/20:19:20Z

B. 17 deg 40 min N

074 deg 06 min W

C. 850 mb 1465 m

D. 20 kt

E. 131 deg 018 nm

F. 195 deg 033 kt

G. 131 deg 062 nm

H. EXTRAP 1004 mb

I. 17 C/ 1523 m

J. 23 C/ 1523 m

K. 13 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1 345/ 8

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 16

MAX FL WIND 33 KT E QUAD 20:00:40 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB

Drop in pressure of 3mb

[Calrissian]

H. EXTRAP 1004 mb

All these extrapolations. Who knows what the last 12 hrs data has really been. I think a lot are being a bit hung up on the precise numbers today.

Regardless, Ernesto is on his way to the USA.

---

Calrissian: September not far away

[SnowBear]

Bit of a backward wobble there according to the messeges, but that could be either a wobble in the low pressure itself, or it could be recon are still not quite finding the centre.

Edit: Corrected last vortex messege timestamp on the plot.

Edited August 27, 2006 by SnowBear

[SnowBear]

NHC scratching heads too!!

WTNT45 KNHC 272040

TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

APPARENTLY...THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWESTERN

PENINSULA OF HAITI HAS DISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO. THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED...THE MINIMUM

PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO ABOUT 1004 MB...AND THE HIGHEST OBSERVED

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 42 KT. IT IS PRESUMED THAT STRONGER WINDS

ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR

THE COASTLINE OF HAITI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PERHAPS

GENEROUSLY...AT 50 KT. SINCE ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER THE

WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND UPPER-LEVEL

WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A WINDOW OF

OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO

CROSSING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING. THE

OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ERNESTO WEAKENING AGAIN AS IT

MOVES OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CUBAN LAND MASS AND THEN

RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE IT

IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL DISRUPTION OF THE CIRCULATION

WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS...THERE IS MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS

WIND SPEED FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH THE ILL-DEFINED INNER CORE HAS MADE CENTER FIXING RATHER

DIFFICULT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER

310/7. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE

SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DROPS

IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN

GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR

THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES IN

THE STEERING PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND U.K. MET OFFICE

TRACKS TO THE WEST...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFS TRACKS TO THE EAST. THE

GFS HAS SHIFTED EAST FROM THE EARLIER RUN AND THIS MODEL HAS NOT

BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN THUS FAR. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MAINLY OUT

OF RESPECT FOR THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFDL MODEL. THIS NHC FORECAST

IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND

ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA

PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 18.0N 74.5W 50 KT

12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.5W 60 KT

24HR VT 28/1800Z 20.7N 77.2W 65 KT...INLAND

36HR VT 29/0600Z 22.1N 79.1W 60 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 80.8W 65 KT

72HR VT 30/1800Z 26.5N 82.5W 80 KT

96HR VT 31/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W 60 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 01/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 50 KT...INLAND

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

Not too sure how close USAF can fly to Haiti?

Edited August 27, 2006 by SnowBear

[Gray-Wolf]

Ernie's dark cousin is still shadowing him across the border in the Dominican rep. with what (to my untutored eye) looks like banding flowing out to it's south.

If the NOAA can put Ernesto's recent problems down to a spit of land then maybe the WHOLE island has been disrupting the formation of a much mightier beast than the one we've been watching form in open waters to the south of the island the past couple of days. It would also give me a reason as to why he didn't stray too far from, and kept replacing his centre over, the 'open waters' .

In reality all of that 'unrelated convection' to Ernesto's east could really have been really his eastern 'evil twin' trying to form over mountainous terrain of the Dominican republic and Haiti. In reality Ernesto could be nothing more than the eddy of a much mightier beast who, when he finaly rolls off the north of the island, his nw quater grazeing Cuba as he hauls into open waters, we will get our first glimpse of the true Ernesto in all his might.............

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Anyone willing to say this is "over" as far as a major hurricane goes?

If it's got to go over Cuba I don't see anything more than TS (perhaps CAT 1) for Florida.

It's a mess and a tad over-hyped but for the first hurricane of the 2006 season you can forgive that!

Still, for those in the path Ernesto is not to be trifled with.

[Calrissian]

Looks tiny, only the core seems strong

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/bd.jpg

Indeed, if it hangs over Cuba for more than 12hrs, it might even fall apart entirely. Even so, a long night ahead.

Calrissian: every day is a bank holiday for some people

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I think there is a chance it will go as far west between Jamaica and the foot of Cuba.

If it does... it will be dead on course with the hottest waters of the Carribean.

Were it not for the expected northwards movement, the interference of Cuba (maybe even the mountains), you'd expect Ernesto to bomb into a CAT2/3 quite easily.

A long night indeed.

[Guest Mr_S]

Anyone thinking this is going to be a 2004 Charley Track suddenly?? girlfriends in Florida and with the northerly route - its looking like another charley.. if so - will pass directly over her again

[Kain]

Wow it got ripped apart..

Never expected that!

Kain

[Calrissian]

well, there is still a bit of a breeze there - at 35-45mph right now, along with a foot or so of rain ! Not entirely the most pleasent of days.

As for Monday, looks like Ernesto should at least stablise a bit, but then where from there? If it hangs over Cuba too long, its game over.

--

Calrissian: signing out

[Roger J Smith]

Looks as though Ernesto may be veering further north than expected, possibly taking the path of least resistance between Haiti and Cuba, spending only a short time over eastern Cuba, then trying to redevelop on a NW course but possibly fooling the models a second time and veering north towards western Bahamas or east coast of FL. The furthest west I think it could get is parallel to Fort Myers - Tampa Bay, but a more erratic meandering path would not surprise as the steering currents are generally weak, and getting weaker.

There is also about a slight chance that Ernesto will just die out over eastern Cuba and fail to maintain a circulation past Tuesday.

[kold weather]

Right I'll keep this as short as I can but overnight recon has found winds have dropped down to about 45-50mph. Despite this the system has become more organised in terms of convection thanks to diurnal maximum. Track is going to take it NNW through eastern Cuba and how well its core is organsied will foretell whethe rit'll survive Cuba as anything more then a tropical depression. Still has every chance of becoming a hurricane mind you if it keeps a good core and it has some very favorable waters ahea dof it so hurricane status is still quite possible if it emerges from Cuba in good shape.

Second landfall should end up being S.Florida as the system moves westwards voer Cuba then back NNW and indeed thats what all the models are currently showing and this puts great threat on the Keys because of how low lying they are and even a small surge could cut the islands off again. One other possiblty worth noting is that IF it continues NNW then it may end up even further east then the models expect IF it doesn't take a more westerly route over Cuba then it may end up being a real threat for the Bahamas and quite possibly the Carolinas. Only a small risk of that happening right now give nthe ver ygood agreement from the models but its a risk I think nonetheless and would give it lots more time to strength before making an unexpected landflal either in east Florida or even further north. The track over the next 6-12hrs should give us a good idea of exactly where its going.