Tropical Storm John

[summer blizzard]

000

WTPZ41 KNHC 282050

TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006

200 PM PDT MON AUG 28 2006

BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH

TAFB PROVIDING A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 2.5 OR 35 KT AND SAB GIVING 3.0

OR 45 KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THE TWO AT 40 KT AND THE

CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND

RADII ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30 NMI IN THE RIGHT

SEMICIRCLE.

SCATTER IN THE POSITION ESTIMATES HAS DECREASED AS ALL AGENCIES ARE

WITHIN 25 NMI OF EACH OTHER. THE CURRENT POSITION WAS CORROBORATED

WITH A TRMM PASS AT 1456Z WITH WELL-PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE BANDS.

MOTION IS NOW MORE ACCURATELY ASSESSED AT 285/7...RATHER THAN THE

NORTHWEST TRACK INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JOHN SHOULD

MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN TURN

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER

RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...A

MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF OF SOUTHERN

CALIFORNIA...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME TO HAVE A

SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON JOHN'S MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS MOST

SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AS BOTH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS

DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ACCURATELY ANALYZED JOHN.

ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SUGGEST CONTINUED

INTENSIFICATION. BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...THE SHIPS...GFDL AND

FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE INTENSITY MODELS ALL BRING THE SYSTEM UP TO A

CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITHIN THREE DAYS. WHILE THE INTENSITY

FORECAST SHOWN HERE SUGGESTS JOHN WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36

HOURS...THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES

THAT JOHN MAY REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY SOONER THAN INDICATED. THE

SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY DAY FIVE DUE TO COOLER SSTS

AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOST

SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE MODELS...EXCEPT TO SHOW

FASTER WEAKENING AT DAY FIVE.

GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF JOHN'S TRACK TO THE COAST OF

MEXICO...INTERESTS FROM ACAPULCO TO LA FORTUNA SHOULD CLOSELY

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 13.4N 96.7W 40 KT

12HR VT 29/0600Z 13.7N 97.9W 50 KT

24HR VT 29/1800Z 14.1N 99.7W 60 KT

36HR VT 30/0600Z 15.0N 101.6W 70 KT

48HR VT 30/1800Z 16.2N 103.7W 80 KT

72HR VT 31/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W 90 KT

96HR VT 01/1800Z 21.5N 112.0W 85 KT

120HR VT 02/1800Z 22.5N 114.0W 60 KT

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

Rapid intensification is expected, and already occuring, in the past eight hours, this system has gone from a weak Tropical Depression to Tropical Storm.

[parmenides3]

Quick spot, SB! John now well-formed, projected to track along the coast and strengthen for 3-4 days. This one might be worth watching for two reasons; development was very rapid, and any shift Northward in track could put the coast, e.g. Acapulco, at risk.

P

[summer blizzard]

000

WTPZ31 KNHC 291752

TCPEP1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006

1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...JOHN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO

FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF ACAPULCO

EASTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA...AND FROM WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS

WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...

275 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND

THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/HR...

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY

THREE HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90

MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.64 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO

8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING AREA. THESE RAINS COULD

CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF

MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...14.3 N...99.4 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

200 PM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

000

WTPZ41 KNHC 291500

TCDEP1

HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006

800 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006

JOHN HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...AND FIRST LIGHT

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE AND AN OBSCURED

EYE FEATURE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THESE FEATURES ARE ALSO APPARENT ON

A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS FROM 1156 UTC. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS

FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT AND 75 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF TWO AND IS SET AT 70 KT. JOHN IS

NOW THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. JOHN

IS IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATERS FOR

CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES

JOHN TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHICH FOLLOWS

CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY

GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN THE LATER

PERIODS...THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS JOHN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE

PROXIMITY OF IT'S TRACK FORECAST TO LAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK

FORECAST MAINTAINS THE HURRICANE OVER WATER THROUGH FIVE DAYS AND

GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE IN DAYS 4 AND 5 AS A RESULT OF COOLER

WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE. JOHN IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4

DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE HURRICANE IS

FORECAST TO BE STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-

TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MOST OF THE

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER

THE GFDL MODEL ANTICIPATES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO BE

FURTHER TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE

WEST COAST OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE

OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL

AS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF JOHN...THE WIND RADII

HAVE BEEN EXPANDED. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO TO

ADJUST THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 14.3N 99.0W 70 KT

12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.8N 100.4W 85 KT

24HR VT 30/1200Z 15.6N 102.2W 95 KT

36HR VT 31/0000Z 16.7N 104.3W 105 KT

48HR VT 31/1200Z 18.2N 106.2W 105 KT

72HR VT 01/1200Z 20.5N 110.0W 100 KT

96HR VT 02/1200Z 21.0N 112.5W 85 KT

120HR VT 03/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W 65 KT

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

As a pinhole eye has formed and despite only category 1 status, pressure is 977mb, therefore i would not be suprised to see a strong category 4.

[summer blizzard]

000

WTPZ41 KNHC 292057

TCDEP1

HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006

200 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006

JOHN HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TODAY AND A PINHOLE EYE IS

NOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 24 HOURS AGO THE CYCLONE WAS A

40 KT TROPICAL STORM AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS

SET AT 100 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK

CLASSIFICATIONS WERE LIMITED TO DATA T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 OR 90 KT DUE

TO RESTRICTIONS IN THE TECHNIQUE...BUT RAW DATA T-NUMBERS GIVE

ESTIMATES CLOSER TO 6.0 OR 115 KT. THERE ARE NO APPARENT

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL

INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THIS IS

REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH MAKES JOHN A CATEGORY FOUR

HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND MAINTAINS JOHN AS A STRONG

HURRICANE THROUGH 5 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION

IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AS THE HURRICANE IS

STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL

RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. BOTH THE GFDL AND FSU

SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND

STILL FORECAST THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO BE FARTHER EAST

ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST

COAST OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. ON THE

OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL

CONSENSUS AND TAKE THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST

TRACK RESULTING FROM A STRONGER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND

FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONU CLOSELY.

THE CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF JOHN AND A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS

HAVE RESULTED IN AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII. THIS HAS PROMPTED

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO TO ADJUST THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ONCE

AGAIN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 14.4N 99.7W 100 KT

12HR VT 30/0600Z 15.0N 101.1W 115 KT

24HR VT 30/1800Z 16.0N 103.0W 120 KT

36HR VT 31/0600Z 17.3N 104.8W 120 KT

48HR VT 31/1800Z 18.8N 106.8W 115 KT

72HR VT 01/1800Z 21.0N 110.5W 110 KT

96HR VT 02/1800Z 22.0N 113.0W 100 KT

120HR VT 03/1800Z 22.0N 116.0W 90 KT

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

[summer blizzard]

000

WTPZ41 KNHC 300853

TCDEP1

HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006

200 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006

RADAR FROM ACAPULCO MEXICO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND IT APPEARS

THAT JOHN HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THIS MAY

EXPLAIN WHY THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH SINCE

YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO A WARM

SPOT HAS RE-APPEARED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK

SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT AND 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB

RESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY

EN-ROUTE TO JOHN AND IT SHOULD SOON PROVIDE A MUCH MORE ACCURATE

MEASURE OF THE HURRICANE'S CURRENT STRENGTH.

JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AND THE

ESTIMATED MOTION IS 300/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP JOHN ON THIS

GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN

PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE

GFS REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DUE TO ITS

WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE ON THE

RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AND BOTH TRACK JOHN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN

MEXICO IN 24-36 HOURS. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL AND UKMET THE

TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED RIGHT OR CLOSER TO THE COAST OF

MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER JUST

OFFSHORE...ANY SMALL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT WILL BRING THE CORE OF

THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO. BEYOND THREE DAYS

THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS AND HIGHER

THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS WITH THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IT IS ASSUMED THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING

TO THE NORTH OF JOHN TO BEND THE TRACK MORE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4

AND 5.

WITH LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO

INDICATE STRENGTHENING. BECAUSE INTENSIFICATION HAS CEASED OVER

THE PAST 12 HOURS...PERSISTENCE HAS BECOME LESS OF A POSITIVE

FACTOR IN THE SHIPS MODEL AND THEREFORE IT NOW KEEPS THE HURRICANE

JUST BELOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. HOWEVER...IT IS ASSUMED THAT

JOHN HAS JUST COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND

STRENGTHENING SHOULD RESUME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL

CONTINUE TO PREDICT A CATEGORY FOUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 15.6N 101.3W 100 KT

12HR VT 30/1800Z 16.5N 102.4W 110 KT

24HR VT 31/0600Z 18.0N 104.2W 120 KT

36HR VT 31/1800Z 19.5N 106.0W 120 KT

48HR VT 01/0600Z 20.9N 107.7W 115 KT

72HR VT 02/0600Z 22.2N 110.7W 105 KT

96HR VT 03/0600Z 22.8N 114.0W 90 KT

120HR VT 04/0600Z 23.0N 118.0W 75 KT

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

Current pressure is 962mb, expect that to drop, i personally would not rule out category 5 status.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc06/EPAC...1007W.100pc.jpg

Great pinhole eye.

[Somerset Squall]

Certainly intensified quickly this one! Could it reach cat 5 intensity?

[Hurricane Debby]

I've been watching the wrong part of the world !

[Somerset Squall]

I've been watching the wrong part of the world !

You've been watching the Atlantic I guess? The Pacific has been much more interesting!

[SnowBear]

Recon did a flight through John yesterday afternoon, Vortex Data is ...

URPN12 KNHC 301313

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 30/12:53:50Z

B. 16 deg 08 min N

101 deg 49 min W

C. 700 mb 2685 m

D. NA kt

E. NA deg nm

F. 299 deg 087 kt

G. 199 deg 005 nm

H. 950 mb

I. 11 C/ 3044 m

J. 18 C/ 3056 m

K. 10 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C12

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF309 0111E JOHN OB 14

MAX FL WIND 107 KT SE QUAD 11:12:00 Z

LIGHTNING ALL QUADS. GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION.

;

Current estimations are.....

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.3W AT 30/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.

Recon will be flying to Hurricane John again on the 31st (today as I post this). Take off at 12.45GMT/1.45pm BST, target vortex fix time 18.00GMT/7pm BST.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. HURRICANE JOHN

A. 31/1800Z

B. AFXXX 0211E JOHN

C. 31/1245Z

D. 19.5N 106.0W

E. 31/1700Z TO 31/2100Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Edited August 31, 2006 by SnowBear

[SnowBear]

Latest vortex messege as of 16.45GMT/5.45pm BST,

URPN12 KNHC 011658

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 01/16:45:40Z

B. 22 deg 11 min N

108 deg 51 min W

C. 700 mb 2737 m

D. 40 kt

E. 233 deg 022 nm

F. 323 deg 085 kt

G. 236 deg 005 nm

H. 958 mbI. 10 C/ 3041 m

J. 16 C/ 3053 m

K. 11 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C12

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF301 0311E JOHN OB 20

MAX FL WIND 98 KT SE QUAD 15:47:40 Z

Nice loop of John..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-ft.html

[The PIT]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/5305226.stm Edited September 1, 2006 by The PIT