Ex-Hurricane Florence

[kold weather]

Right we now have TD6, which is coming out of Invest 90L which I was watching very closely. It's got a good structure right now though convection still isn't amazing, probably because just how broad the system is, which indicates it could be quite a large system in the long run if it does develop into a more powerful system as the models are indicatig quite widely now. Evident sprial in the loops of the convection so circulation certainly seems to be there which is the first step to getting a system. Down the road models are indicating this could be quite a powerful system, with SHIPS taking TD6 upto 79kts which would make it pretty close to category-2 hurricane. Track for now remains NW and models are forecasting it to keep that motion for the next 48hrs at least, though they are indicating that the Bermuda high may build back in again by 96-120hrs to send TD6 back towards the WNW/W which the USA will have to watch closely as that would have it heading close to the USa indeed even if it does re-curve however most models are showing NO signs of a re-curve and has the system on a W track through to at least 60W which means it'll have to be watched clsoely by people in the east coast as well as the Bahamas. Anyway here are the SHIP models:

354

WHXX01 KWBC 031829

CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE SIX (AL062006) ON 20060903 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

060903 1800 060904 0600 060904 1800 060905 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 14.2N 39.9W 16.0N 41.5W 17.5N 43.0W 18.7N 44.5W

BAMM 14.2N 39.9W 16.0N 41.7W 17.5N 43.4W 18.5N 45.4W

A98E 14.2N 39.9W 15.5N 41.9W 16.6N 44.0W 17.7N 46.2W

LBAR 14.2N 39.9W 16.0N 41.7W 18.0N 43.1W 19.9N 44.6W

SHIP 30KTS 40KTS 49KTS 56KTS

DSHP 30KTS 40KTS 49KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

060905 1800 060906 1800 060907 1800 060908 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 19.8N 46.0W 21.3N 49.2W 21.7N 53.4W 21.3N 58.5W

BAMM 19.3N 47.3W 19.9N 51.0W 20.1N 55.3W 19.6N 59.4W

A98E 18.7N 48.6W 20.2N 54.0W 20.9N 59.9W 21.4N 65.6W

LBAR 21.8N 45.8W 25.3N 48.0W 27.4N 52.1W 28.3N 56.1W

SHIP 62KTS 70KTS 74KTS 79KTS

DSHP 62KTS 70KTS 74KTS 79KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 39.9W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 37.8W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 36.0W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

Edited September 3, 2006 by kold weather

[P.K.]

I've just checked and that SHIPs run is still based on the BAMM forecast and not the official forecast so the next run will be far more helpful.

[Gray-Wolf]

I had a 'look see' this morning but could see anything other than convection and forward movement so I'm pleased to see this development as in the water vapour sat image of the area has both this, and the clump behind this, surrounded by nothing but moisture.

If all my brain has to deal with is contact with land and upper level shear (and no the dry, dusty air as well) then I'm a lot happier!

We really are (I believe) at a point in this season that should allow us a nice storm. The action just across in the Pacific recently, and its formation so close to the Gulf, makes me ever hopeful that the Atlantic basin is primed and ready to go (Atlantic action starved!!).

I was also watching the convection in the Caribbean SE of Cuba. This mass seems to have slowed it's forward movement and maybe could start to develop as well if the convection really set off. It seems to have run into a brick wall of convection flowing to the NE off South America. Surely it must start 'rucking up' as it piles its rear into itself (or does it just spread out?, or both?) Either way it leads to more doesn't it?

[kold weather]

I'd go along with that Gray-wolf, as I've been too busy wathcing the West ham events over the past few days I've not really looked in any great depth at waht the airmass is like ahead of TD6 but from what I've breifly seen it seesm the only possible threat in the short-term would be a ULL to its NNW which is slowly dipping southwards but it looks like thats going to pull away back to the north over the next 24hrs. ULL is clear to see on here to the north of the system:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg

Also as you can see the moisture doesn't look too be much of a problem right now thanks to TD6 absorbing 98L and iots moisture pocket, hence why TD6 looks such a large monster, when in fact its probably at most 3/4 quaters the size that the convection indicates.

As for the system behind it, it'll have to be watched as well but for now the real concern is TD6 and given the way the models are trending back west by 96-144hrs it needs watching by most of the east coast as it's still some days away from any landfalling action.

Typical that the tropics get going just as I'm getting ready to go to college!

(ps, intresting P.K, thanks.)

Edited September 3, 2006 by kold weather

[wolves78]

keep an eye on the second system just behind TD6 as it is definatly one to watch looks like the two could join in the next 24 hours

[crimsone]

While it's way too early to be talking about 7-8 day tracks, the current (and first) NHC forecast track does actually seem to curve towards Florida or the Caribbean (for now at least)...

Edited September 3, 2006 by crimsone

[Gray-Wolf]

keep an eye on the second system just behind TD6 as it is definatly one to watch looks like the two could join in the next 24 hours

Some of the models want something a little further NW but much larger by around T120 and maybe thats the answer ! Also there's one heck of a storm in Africa heading for the coast as well so maybe another candidate for the T144 storm. I don't expect Ioke but something a little better looking than Ernesto would do , eh?

Edited September 3, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[wolves78]

definatly what with the atlantic being so quiet for such a long time i would expect that TD6 could prove to be a little more of a monster than some models suggest ATM after all who can predict a hurricane with any certanty?

latest sat images are stunning

[crimsone]

TD6 is starting to take on a rather "Tropical Storm-esque" shape methinks

Given that even the first advisory a few hours ago said "MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHERGUSTS.", I wouldn't be suprised to se the next advisory say just that.

(disclaimer: not that I'm trying to say it is a TS, but it's still darned impressive!)

Edited September 3, 2006 by crimsone

[summer blizzard]

I would agree that it is a Tropical Storm now, as for its future track, i suspect that the National Hurricane Center is close to the mark however i am gettin an eery feeling that this will develop in a similar way to Hurricane Andrew, i hope i am wrong, however conditions look ideal.

[kold weather]

I'd gues sits mighty close to tropical status now however there hasn't been no real upgrade in presentation of TD6 which is why they are keeping it at 30kts, though I do think that once we get another flare-up of convection near the center we will see TS Florance.

Track of TD6 will probably have to be adjusted to the north today given the Upper level trough has a good grip on TD6 as it has dipped dwon quite far, even further then the models were firstly expecting and is helping to keep TD6 on a NW/NNW type track. However this is now moving out of the way and a ridge should start to re-build in and send TD6 back westward. Long term track I should expect will be for another re-curve to occur away from the USA once a weakness moves into the east coast region.

There is presently some shear evident over TD6 with convection generally being sheared in a NE direction, which is all to do with the upper level trough to its north. So shear should stay pretty constant for the next 24hrs however as the trough pulls away NE and the ridge re-builds back in that shear should not become so evident and what this should do is allow some steady development. I don't think strengthening will be too fast until 72hrs time when it gets into much more favorable condtions however as SB said it does have some pretty favorable condtions way ahea dof it that should be condusive for hurricane status and probably even major-hurricane status. It's worth noting that GFDL takes TD6 central pressure down to 934mbs by the end of the 0z run though this has been discounted somewaht by the NHC

[kold weather]

Just a quick update from the NHC, tropical storm Florance isn't far away now however prehaps the best thing to show is the track which would take it quite close to Florida if it kept that track into the 200hrs range however as I said in the other post there is ample time before then for a upper level trough to dive down and create a weakness to allow TD6 to move through. anyway heres the NHC latest map, bringing it upto category-1 status by the end of the run though this is said to be possibly under-estimating how strong it could be under favorable condtions...either way this one wil lbe a long tracker and could be with us for at least 7-10 days!

Everyone on the eastern seaboard is going to have very close eye on this sytem over the next few days as it progresses steadily towards land, where will it eventually go though is still very uncertain and is going to be intresting to see the swings in the models.

Edited September 4, 2006 by kold weather

[Gray-Wolf]

TD6 seems to have re-separated from 98L and is now going to have a go ar re-absorbing it??? Regarding it's direction over the next 7 or 8 days well..... I hope it bodes well for the weather this side of the pond and we don't get a nasty re-curve and a T.D. to finish our summer on!

[crimsone]

I hope it bodes well for the weather this side of the pond and we don't get a nasty re-curve and a T.D. to finish our summer on!

I hope for just the opposite! (Though, you'll probably win. lol).

It's interesting to read on forecast discussin 4 that a number of the models are somewhat puzzlingly going for a substantial slowdown of the forward speed in the extended forecast period. It'll be interesting to see if the models are indeed correct.

Edited September 4, 2006 by crimsone

[kold weather]

Yeah that is intresting Crimsone. if I was to have a guess as to why that is the case is that Td6 gets caught between the influance of the ridge and the trough to its north and thus it ends up in a sort of col in terms of steering which slows it down. I can;t be certain this is the case but thats what I'd guess at!

Here's Td6 in 276hrs according to the GFS to the SW of the map:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png

Edited September 4, 2006 by kold weather

[crimsone]

OK. For sattelite of this one, look to Floater 1.

Is it just me, or does it appear to be improving in terms of organisation? Earlier today it appeared as little more than a light swirl if I recall, with little convection. If I've got this right, it now appears to be wrapping around its center and bulking up a little.

Edited September 4, 2006 by crimsone

[kold weather]

I'll keep this post breif but compared to last night I'd say if anything it looks less organised. Reason for this is it looks much more sheared then it did last night and the actual center is beocming hard to pinpoint, even though there is still an evident broad circulation. It's abit of a mess right now and no wonder they aren't upgrading it to be honest.

Once the trough to its north lifts out of the way then shear should start to ease off and some better development should start to occur. Don't confuse it 'bulking up' for shear tearing the anvils to the NE, it may look larger but actually in this case the upper winds are tearing the clouds in such a way that its giving the impression of the depression beefing up.

[Brrr]

One of many reports out on TD6 likely becoming Hurricane Florence....poss heading for Gulf

http://www.theadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll...NEWS01/60904001

000

WTNT41 KNHC 041431

TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006

1100 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE DEPRESSION IS NEARING STORM

STRENGTH. CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT IN THE

NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION

Belinda

Edited September 4, 2006 by Brrr

[crimsone]

forecast discussion 5...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED.

IN FACT... IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND HAS A

SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE. THE CENTER... AS BEST WE CAN

TELL... IS BETWEEN TWO BANDING FEATURES THAT ARE LOOKING

INCREASINGLY LINEAR. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM

EARLIER AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY... BUT THERE IS NO GOOD REASON

TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM AS DISORGANIZED AS IT LOOKS NOW. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30 KT.

Thanks KW :blush:

[Brrr]

forecast discussion 5...

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED.

IN FACT... IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND HAS A

SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE. THE CENTER... AS BEST WE CAN

TELL... IS BETWEEN TWO BANDING FEATURES THAT ARE LOOKING

INCREASINGLY LINEAR. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM

EARLIER AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY... BUT THERE IS NO GOOD REASON

TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM AS DISORGANIZED AS IT LOOKS NOW. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30 KT.

Thanks KW :blush:

Drat......

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 11:15 pm EDT, September 4, 2006

NHC FORECASTS TD #6 TO BECOME HURRICANE AND HEAD WNW FOR A WHILE

There is not a lot of news tonight concerning TD #6. The NHC continues to indicate that it should become a hurricane as it tracks generally WNW over the next five days. Perhaps the only real item of note is that the NHC mentions that the would-be hurricane might not turn as much to the north as some of the global models are suggesting. It is too soon to really be speculating on what might eventually happen with this system, but things could look very interesting as we approach the weekend. By then, we should know much more about the evolution of the upper air pattern and where this might end up. For now, it's just a wait and see situation and we will do just that. The remainder of the Atlantic is fairly quiet considering what time of year it is but I suspect that we will see more development later this week as additional areas of disturbed weather gather strength over the warm waters of the Basin. I will have much more tomorrow and all week long.

Courtesy Hurricane Track

[kold weather]

Still no change from yesterday with TD6 just holding it togther from the upper level trough to its north which is still holding firm so no real change in organisition. Looking at the models looks lik eits going to have between 24-36hrs of further hard condtions and I don't think we can rule out it fading away to be honest given how unorganised it is and how hard the center is proving to be to find.

IF it survives the next 36hrs then I'd guess it'll find itslef in better condtions though very fast development won't happen IMO simply because ther eis still some fairly dry air to the west of TD6. Still I'd call for steady development once out of that sheared region though how strong it'll get I wouldn't want to call, my guesss that cat-2 IF it does get into those more favorable condtions.

[kold weather]

Despite my last post it appears that there are some wind barbs at 35kts on the quicksat which warrants the NHC upgrading this tropical depression to a tropical storm, so it does look like we have a very disorganised tropical storm Florance, though how long I'm not sure as its VERY messy system indeed with one large circulation with several smaller centers rotating, the main one now appearing to be way to the SW of the last NHc center which will make a US landfall more likely...

383

WHXX01 KWBC 051240

CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM SIX (AL062006) ON 20060905 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

060905 1200 060906 0000 060906 1200 060907 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 17.2N 46.8W 18.6N 47.9W 19.9N 49.1W 21.2N 50.5W

BAMM 17.2N 46.8W 18.2N 48.3W 18.9N 49.6W 19.7N 50.8W

A98E 17.2N 46.8W 17.9N 48.9W 18.8N 50.8W 20.0N 52.8W

LBAR 17.2N 46.8W 18.4N 48.4W 19.8N 50.1W 21.1N 51.8W

SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 48KTS 54KTS

DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 48KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

060907 1200 060908 1200 060909 1200 060910 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 22.2N 52.2W 23.8N 56.8W 25.7N 61.8W 28.3N 66.3W

BAMM 20.2N 52.3W 21.7N 55.7W 23.9N 59.8W 26.8N 64.4W

A98E 20.9N 54.9W 22.7N 60.1W 23.9N 65.2W 24.5N 68.8W

LBAR 22.2N 53.8W 24.1N 58.5W 25.9N 63.3W 27.8N 67.0W

SHIP 60KTS 74KTS 83KTS 89KTS

DSHP 60KTS 74KTS 83KTS 89KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.2N LONCUR = 46.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT

LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 44.7W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 11KT

LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 42.3W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$

[Calrissian]

Its about time.

The sixth name....by September 5'th ...Florence.

Seems steadily crusing for a east coast Florida hit, but then....so long until then 10 days?

Calrissian: awaiting Hurricane Kirk

[kold weather]

Intrestingly enough we are still above average for tropical storms but now below average for hurricanes though Florance will help somewhat to put us closer to average again.

NHC discussion confirms my belief that ther eis probably several vcenters doing a mini fujiwara around a main broad circulation with a wind field of 400NMI, which is HUGE for a tropical feature, simply because its such a slack and broad circulation.

Very intresting outlook for this system looks like the southern most center has at least for now become the dominant circulation but these can be rather fickle in nature as we saw with ernesto, esp when they are not well established by convection like this one.

NHC forecasts are for the re-curve to start by 120hrs as a upper level trough comes off Newfoundland region and the Bermuda high shifts slightly to the east however given how the models have a nasty habit of over-doing these features I have to wonder whether the models wil lbe right on this one though there is good agreement which does make such an idea more probable.

A system of this size is intresting though and means it'll tend to survive the shear and dry air far better then the smaller systems that seen frequantly this summer so far (This is our first 'biggie' so to speak.) and while it makes fast development unlikely at least in the next 48hrs it does mean that once shear relaxes and the center tightens up somewhat it'll have a good basis to really become powerful and I'd say major hurricane status is possible for sure in the long term like the GFDL model shows.

Edited September 5, 2006 by kold weather