Ipcc Draft Report Content

[snowsure]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/02092006/325/clim...g-forecast.html

I don't think I've seen this on any other thread.

What factors could cause "The panel's Draft Fourth Assessment report narrows the band of predicted temperature rises by 2100 to 2-4.5 degrees Celsius, from 1.4-5.8 degrees in the previous assessment in 2001."

Is it significant? It still shows GW happening though.

[Essan]

It's mainly down to improved modelling techniques since the TAR - which means they can narrow down the expected range of temp increase

[Anti-Mild]

It's mainly down to improved modelling techniques since the TAR - which means they can narrow down the expected range of temp increase

Except they haven't narrowed it down The range has grown from 2.5c to 4.4c, it just looks more accurate because the figures haven't been rounded to the nearest .5c.

[Devonian]

Except they haven't narrowed it down The range has grown from 2.5c to 4.4c, it just looks more accurate because the figures haven't been rounded to the nearest .5c.

Eh? Look again , the range has decreased from 4.4 to 2.5

2007: (a yet to be confimed since it's not been officially published) 2-4.5C = 2.5C. 2001: 1.4-5.8C = 4.4C

[The Penguin]

It would appear that climate modelling, at least at the IPCC, is now twice as ‘good’ as it was five years ago. Is this an accurate reflection of the situation do you think, and if so what kind of improvement is expected over the next five years?

[Devonian]

It would appear that climate modelling, at least at the IPCC, is now twice as ‘good’ as it was five years ago. Is this an accurate reflection of the situation do you think, and if so what kind of improvement is expected over the next five years?

Humm, well, firstly we're comparing a yet to be published report with one from 2001. Secondly, not sure 'twice as good' are the words. You could say, since the celcius scale goes from -270 odd to infinity, that a range of 4.4C was pretty impressive allready

[parmenides3]

Is the range offered meant to be the range of expected temperature change in different regions, or the net warming globally? If, as I suspect, it refers to the second, it means that the mean figure has actually gone down a fraction; from +3.6 to +3.45. And we don't yet know whether this is the average of different emissions scenarios, or the average based on one particular scenario. Until there is more available for preview, it's going to be hard to speculate realistically about the implications of the report.

P

[Anti-Mild]

Eh? Look again , the range has decreased from 4.4 to 2.5

2007: (a yet to be confimed since it's not been officially published) 2-4.5C = 2.5C. 2001: 1.4-5.8C = 4.4C

Oops :blush: my mistake!

That'll teach me to read posts while on the phone !!