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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Hi everyone, I've not seen this one being mentioned so far on here, but looks like this one will be flash Gordon!

    Doesn't look like becoming that strong as shear is currently causing some problems for TD7, not that suprising mind you given how shear has been in the 06 season so far.

    In the long term I suspect this system has every chance of becoming a tropical storm and may well be rpetty close right now to being a tropical storm given the sat.estimates presently on its strength. The latest GFDL now goes for a hurricane after destroying the circulation overnight and the SHIPS want to take TD7 upto a good 55kts. Despite this there is scope for Td7 to become as strong as Florence given the chance of a upper level high being forecast to form nearby Td7 something that Florence lacked and was par tof the reason that Florence took so long to get going. Whatever happens it does look like Td7 could be another long tracker like Florence was.

    Track is fairly complicated however. The steering currents suggests its right on the borderline of a col and much depends on just how large of a weakness that Florence leaves to its NE. the NHC and models seem to be moving TD7 into the weakness quite willingly however the models are already assuming a NW motion occuring which means at the very least the system is getting too far north. In all likelyhood a slow movement to the west is most likely under some very light steering currents, prehaps even just a drift at times. I susopect the models are going to be right in that the weakness left from Florence should be large enough to llow a gradual turn to the north and I'd say this has a large possiblty of being a threat to Bermuda...again. There is an outside chance that Td7 will not get far enough west in time to feel the weakness and the ridge could re-build and send TD7 westward again, which would then leave a much higher chance of a USA landfall.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    000

    WTNT42 KNHC 110847

    TCDAT2

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006

    500 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

    CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN

    THE CONVECTIVE BANDING THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE

    SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE

    INCREASED TO 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY

    FOLLOWING SUIT.

    THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OF A MYSTERY. THE

    LATEST GFDL RUN NOW INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A

    HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS SEEMS

    SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE CONSIDERING THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY

    SHEAR...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW

    IN AROUND 36-48 HOURS...AS THE LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE. IN

    FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM. THE

    OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS

    FORECAST... SUGGESTING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 48

    HOURS. AFTERWARD...IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES...THE DYNAMICAL

    MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER EASTERLIES AND IMPROVED

    OUTFLOW WHICH COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME

    STRENGTHENING...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

    INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6...WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN

    PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GLOBAL

    MODELS ALL INDICATE A WEAK STEERING CURRENT THAT WOULD EVENTUALLY

    TURN THE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE

    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE BAM MODELS SHOW RECURVATURE INTO THE

    MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY DAY 4. THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS

    SUGGEST AN ABRUPT NORTHWESTWARD TURN...THEN A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION

    AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON BLEND OF THE

    BAMS... THOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS

    FORECAST.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 11/0900Z 20.5N 55.1W 30 KT

    12HR VT 11/1800Z 20.7N 55.9W 30 KT

    24HR VT 12/0600Z 21.3N 57.2W 35 KT

    36HR VT 12/1800Z 22.1N 58.4W 35 KT

    48HR VT 13/0600Z 23.1N 59.6W 40 KT

    72HR VT 14/0600Z 25.5N 61.5W 45 KT

    96HR VT 15/0600Z 28.0N 62.5W 50 KT

    120HR VT 16/0600Z 31.0N 62.0W 50 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

    000

    WTNT32 KNHC 110857

    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006

    500 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

    ...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION A LITTLE STRONGER...

    AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS

    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.1 WEST OR ABOUT 495

    MILES...800 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7

    MPH...11KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE

    NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

    HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...20.5 N...55.1 W. MOVEMENT

    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35

    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

    1100 AM EDT.

    $$

    FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

    Hmm, this one may cause some problems for the models however as it has formed west of 50W, USA lanfall is possible.

    Having had a look at the synoptic outlook, this system could eventually become a threat to the eastern Carribean if it does not reach 65W within 96 hours.

    I know that i said this before, but i believe that this season we will see something remanicent of Hurricane Andrew hitting Florida.

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    Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Location: London, UK

    Gordon-to-be, looks even more dull than Florence turned out to be. Okay, maybe if you're in Bermuda right now you'd disagree, but still, we all know the relatively weakness of Florence.

    --

    Gordon looks weak, I'm sure it'll get named, by Tuesday, but can't see it going anywhere other than where Florence is headed.

    Calrissian: September days...ahh

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    I'm not sure that you'd say Florence was that weak mind you Calrissian, esp when Bermuda got quite a few hurricane force gusts and it was close to cat-2 status as well.

    As for TD7, yeah its gonna exit the same sort of direction as Florence did as the weakness is not going to replaced nearly fast enough, indeed it looks like TD7 is already moving WNW as Florence exits to its north-west.

    Recon is presently inside of Td7 and has found a central pressure of 1006mbs however more importantly, winds upto 47kts at flight level which suggests that we have Gordon right now and an upgrade will occur next advisory. Convection has since weakened a little so how long it'll keep the TS status I don't know but an upgrade to tropical storm Gordon looks probable.

    Could end up re-curving further south then Florence did which may allow Td7 to hold onto its pure tropical status for longer then Florence is going to.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Rwtavn001.gif

    As you can see, there is the weakness created by Florence, and as you can see from the chart below, the weakness will of closed in around three days time, given the slow motion of Tropical Storm Gordon i would agree that there will be a similar track to Hurricane Florence however i also think that there is a high likely hood of landfall somewhere south of New York, with quite favourable conditions.

    Rwtavn781.gif

    As you can see below, the models do not really support me and all favour complete recourvature aside from one which supports the Carribean option, however i have annotated the two tracks which i think are most likely.

    storm_07.gif

    If Tropical Storm Florence is to take the option of a Florida landfall which is palausable to me, then it must not be more than 65W, 25N, in 48 hours.

    post-1806-1157997983_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Well indeed we do have TS Gordon now for real, here is the navy site:

    http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

    By the way, TS Gordon is being inflicted by some shear right now and the LLC is somewhat exposed on the NW side of the convection, the reason seems to be Florence outflow which should keep Gordon pretty clsoe to where its at right now for the next 24-48hrs until Florence gets whipped away to the NE. Despite being upgraded I do have my doubts as to how long Gordon will last as a TS given the shear levels that are being inflicted upon it right now thanks to Florence however I don't see that lasting for more then 24hrs providing Florence hurries on out of there. Despite this there still looks to be shear even whe nthe stronger stuff eases down so I don't expect Gordon to become that strong in the short term at least, but then again the SHIPs do take this upto hurricane status which is quite noteable, even if they have been about 10-15kts too high for every system this year so far.

    Intresting track ideas, too early to forecast a decent accurate track but I'd probably punt for the re-curve track, with such great agreement and the obvious weakness caused by Florence I'd say this is almost certainly going to go out to sea, esp as its already moving WNW, also note the offical forecast has it re-curving nearly eastward again which may mean it may stay far enough south for it to stay tropical during its journey eastward across the atlantic for longer then Florence is doing so. Despite the great model agreement a sis expected I'd say ther eis a very small chance for your more northern set-up to occur SB if the ridge builds in faster then expected, but its only a VERY small chance indeed and my full weight is wit hthe models at the moment, no reason for them to be wrong and this track should be one of the easier ones this seasom.

    Will Gordon go out with a whimper, or go out with a mighty flash...

    (Sorry could resist...)

    (ps, models have stareted at 40kts, so Gordon is a 45mph TS right now according to the models.)

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    Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Location: London, UK

    'Gordon's Alive???????'

    -----------------------------

    Well, as expected we've got name 7'. I suppose there is potencial, but I can't see much coming from this, and even if it does, the track seems Florance bound.

    Calrissian: DIVEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE !

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_p...-571W.100pc.jpg

    The storm is a little weak on its northwestern side however it has an impressive outflow on its eastern side and convection is doing a good job of wrapping round the centre, as with many small storms, there may be some rapid intensification, personally, i would not be suprised to see a hurricane by morning.

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_p...-571W.100pc.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Shear is easing down faster then I expected last night and it seems to have developed a central dense overcast already, has organised suprisingly well overnight and it may well be the case given the impressive Satelite imagery that Gordon is already close to hurricane status, so don't be suprised to see a hurricane today!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridgnorth, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Storms...Did I mention Storms?
  • Location: Bridgnorth, Shropshire, WV16

    Gordon looks impressive this morning, I was expecting it to be 'Flash Gordon' and not last too long.

    Here it is this morning, close to being a hurricane! I think it's probably going to the most impressive storm of the season so far.

    Kain

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    000

    WTNT42 KNHC 120845

    TCDAT2

    TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006

    500 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

    THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND THERE

    HAVEN'T BEEN ANY GOOD MICROWAVE PASSES RECENTLY. CONTINUITY FROM

    THE PREVIOUS MOTION WOULD PLACE THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE

    OF A SMALL BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE ASSUMED INITIAL MOTION IS

    320/7...ALTHOUGH IS POSSIBLE THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE

    NORTHEAST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. GORDON IS LOCATED ON THE

    SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A

    PRONOUNCED BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE

    TO ITS NORTHWEST. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL

    LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 NMI TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF GORDON...THAT

    IS MOVING WESTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT EVEN THOUGH

    FLORENCE WILL BE MOVING OUT...THE WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL

    BREAK DOWN THE REMAINING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GORDON

    AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOWLY RECURVE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL

    MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO... ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS THE RIGHT

    OUTLIER INITIALLY AND CONSEQUENTLY HAS A MUCH SLOWER INTERACTION

    WITH THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE

    PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK EXCEPT A LITTLE SLOWER TO THE NORTHEAST ON

    DAYS 4 AND 5 OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS. OVERALL THE TRACK IS IN

    BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS.

    DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45...55...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB...

    SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL

    REMAIN AT 50 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER GORDON IS DIVERGENT...

    AND THIS FAVORABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO

    PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY

    MODELS BOTH BRING GORDON UP TO ABOUT 80 KT IN 48 HOURS...AND THE

    OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES AS WELL. ONE POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR

    WOULD BE SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THAT COULD BE DRIVEN INTO THE

    CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. TOWARD THE END

    OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE

    OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...THE

    INTENSIFICATION OF GORDON SHOULD BE DONE.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 12/0900Z 22.6N 58.3W 50 KT

    12HR VT 12/1800Z 23.6N 59.0W 55 KT

    24HR VT 13/0600Z 25.1N 59.5W 65 KT

    36HR VT 13/1800Z 26.7N 59.6W 75 KT

    48HR VT 14/0600Z 28.1N 59.5W 80 KT

    72HR VT 15/0600Z 30.5N 58.5W 80 KT

    96HR VT 16/0600Z 33.0N 57.0W 75 KT

    120HR VT 17/0600Z 37.0N 52.0W 65 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Basic track idea still holds from last might still so I see no reason why I should bother re-typing the same stuff again!

    One small thing is the Gordon will probably end up about 1 degree further west then is expected by the models thanks to Gordon deepning and latching ont othe deeper flow which is more of a NNW rather then N/NNE flow as it is in the shallower flow.

    Gordon looks very good on Sat.imagery right now and has probably strengthened since this afternoon after some slight SE shear has levelled off the strength of Gordon but its structure ha simprvoed again slightly since then so probably the winds wil lbe upped to 65mph next advisory unless Gordon rapidly strengthens which is possible I'd guess. looking at the waters ahea dof it plus the possiblty of the Se shear remianing, i'd probably say that Gordon has every shot at becoming a hurricane however I'd dare say not much beyond that because the seas aren't exactly amazingly warm in that part of the world its heading plus the upper air condtions are probably only condussive for steady development.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    000

    WTNT42 KNHC 122047

    TCDAT2

    TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006

    500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

    THE OVERALL SIZE OF GORDON HAS EXPANDED AND THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED

    IN APPEARANCE DURING THE DAY WITH OUTFLOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE

    EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING IN THE SW QUADRANT. SATELLITE

    INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE ALL 55 KT...WHICH

    IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

    BASED ON THE LATEST GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES...

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW DUE NORTH...360/6. GORDON REMAINS ALONG

    THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE

    WITH A PRONOUNCED BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE TO ITS NORTH. A

    LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 950 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF

    GORDON IS MOVING WESTWARD BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A SHEAR AXIS

    WELL TO THE EAST OF GORDON...MAKING IT LESS LIKELY TO HAVE AN

    IMPACT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH

    THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CAPTURE A

    NORTHWARD-MOVING GORDON BEYOND 72 HOURS AND ALLOW RECURVATURE INTO

    THE WESTERLIES. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.

    THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS

    CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

    WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED

    UPPER LOW WHICH...AS NOTED ABOVE...IS BECOMING LESS OF AN

    INHIBITING FACTOR FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF GORDON. THE OFFICIAL

    INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...

    BUT NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...WHICH STILL MAKES GORDON

    A 90 KT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST

    PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND

    ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 12/2100Z 23.7N 58.4W 55 KT

    12HR VT 13/0600Z 24.6N 58.5W 65 KT

    24HR VT 13/1800Z 26.0N 58.5W 75 KT

    36HR VT 14/0600Z 27.7N 58.5W 80 KT

    48HR VT 14/1800Z 29.5N 58.0W 80 KT

    72HR VT 15/1800Z 33.0N 56.0W 75 KT

    96HR VT 16/1800Z 36.5N 52.0W 65 KT

    120HR VT 17/1800Z 40.0N 46.0W 55 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER COBB/PASCH

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    Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

    It's now Hurricane Gordon...

    000

    WTNT42 KNHC 130229

    TCDAT2

    HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006

    1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

    THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH DEEP CONVECTION

    SURROUNDED BY A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...

    THERE HAS BEEN AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE ON CONVENTIONAL

    SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN MICROWAVE DATA.

    DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE BETWEEN 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES WHILE

    OBJECTIVES NUMBERS REACHED 5.4 AROUND 0000 UTC. THE OBJECTIVE

    NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THEN...BUT STILL SUPPORT HURRICANE

    STRENGTH. GORDON IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN EARLIER TODAY AND THE

    INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE

    SUGGESTS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE

    THE SHEAR INCREASES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL

    FORECAST.

    GORDON IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS

    ALREADY ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND READY

    TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER...

    THESE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY...THEREFORE NO

    SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL

    FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. ONLY THE

    UK MODEL ACCELERATES GORDON TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LAST

    PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GORDON IS NO THREAT TO LAND.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 13/0300Z 24.4N 57.9W 65 KT

    12HR VT 13/1200Z 25.6N 57.9W 75 KT

    24HR VT 14/0000Z 27.5N 57.5W 85 KT

    36HR VT 14/1200Z 29.0N 57.0W 85 KT

    48HR VT 15/0000Z 30.5N 56.5W 85 KT

    72HR VT 16/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W 70 KT

    96HR VT 17/0000Z 35.0N 52.0W 60 KT

    120HR VT 18/0000Z 37.0N 49.0W 50 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER AVILA

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    I've got to be quick this morning, but gordon looks pretty good, decent structure with a nice outflow and a decent CDO as well, quite akin to what Florence looked like when it became a minimal hurricane. I suspect that Gordon has every chanc eof getting upto the same sorts of strength as Florence did before it start to re-curve into water with less heat content and should start to weaken in about 96hrs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Gordon looknig very good now, a solid eye has emerged and is by far the best looking system this year, Gordon isn't going to be a threat to land but its not a ugly system either.

    http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200607_sat_2.jpg

    Winds now upto 80kts which is the same strength as Florence at its peak however given the way the eye has cleared out recently and the good looking pattern this may be a under-estimate and I'd say 85-90kts is probably more fair, which would make it a cat-2 in the SS scale. I'd take a guess given the heat content that it has a shot at reaching category-3 and be our first major hurricane of the 06 hurricane season. Much above that will depend entirely on whether the shear is low enough however the system is small which is a good thing for these sorts of storms as they require lower heat content to get upto those cat-3/4.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

    Very good structure, reminds me of Epsilon, with one large outer band and a strong circular shape. Looks slightly similar to Isabel as well.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hurrica..._4_Dec_2005.jpg

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hurrica...sabel2_2003.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Location: London, UK

    Masterful, what a wondrous sight it is. Cat'2 by next sunrise, and major cane by the weekend perhaps.

    Finally, we have a cane' that actually looks like one! A shame it will remain in never never land, but still, its something.

    *I can't help but hear the laughs of Ming the Merciless as I look into the mighty eye of Gordon.

    Calrissian: Hot hail anyone ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!

    You are right. Dangerous (not this one, hopefully, to many) but very beautiful. It just reminds me of why I have such a passion for this subject.

    Paul

    Masterful, what a wondrous sight it is. Cat'2 by next sunrise, and major cane by the weekend perhaps.

    Finally, we have a cane' that actually looks like one! A shame it will remain in never never land, but still, its something.

    *I can't help but hear the laughs of Ming the Merciless as I look into the mighty eye of Gordon.

    Calrissian: Hot hail anyone ?

    Is that Flesh Gordon. Calrissian?...........the "suavest man in space" should know all about her! :o

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Looking very flash I must agree, Cat 3 by tomorrow eh? He'll be a very nice looking storm by then I'd guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridgnorth, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Storms...Did I mention Storms?
  • Location: Bridgnorth, Shropshire, WV16

    About time we have a decient storm to give us eye candy!

    Does look impressive!

    Kain

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Hurricane GORDON Public Advisory

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    000

    WTNT32 KNHC 132041

    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN

    HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 12

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006

    500 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006

    ...GORDON REACHES 110 MPH WINDS...NO THREAT TO LAND...

    AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED

    NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES...

    920 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

    GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND A

    GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON

    THURSDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175

    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GORDON IS A STRONG CATEGORY

    TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL

    STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A

    CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM

    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105

    MILES...165 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...27.0 N...57.5 W. MOVEMENT

    TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.

    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

    1100 PM EDT.

    $$

    FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

    With a central pressure of 965mb and sustained windspeeds of 110mph, Hirricane Gordan is the strongest hurricane of 2006 so far.

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