Hurricane Gordon

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Fantastic looking hurricane. Eye quite large for the size of the storm - flash Gordon indeed.

Fortunately far away from land.

[Calrissian]

A magnificent last report of the day. 110mph and inevitably going to hit 140mph sometime Wednesday. Not the most perfect of conditions out there - sea could certainly be a little hotter, but still, it will suffice for a Cat'4-to-be.

Finally, Gordon giving storm freaks something to get interested in. I can only hope Kirk offers as much potencial as I have foreseen.

Calrissian: Ahh yes...Kirk...awaits.

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 10:50 pm EDT, September 13, 2006

TS HELENE FORMS, GORDON IS A CAT-3 BUT NEITHER A THREAT TO LAND

We are now up to the 8th named storm of the season- hard to believe we have actually had that many considering how slow things were just a few weeks ago. No matter, the NHC has upgraded TD #8 to "Helene". The forecast is fairly simple still- a general west movement followed by a turn more to the northwest. After that, five or more days from now, the then-hurricane will either turn on out to the north and in to the open Atlantic or come more to the west as high pressure builds to its north. The odds of this making it all the way across the Atlantic are slim to none- so we'll just see what happens.

Gordon is now a major hurricane with winds of 120 mph. The forecast calls for even more strengthening before Gordon reaches cooler water and less favorable upper level winds. Of course, Gordon is not expected to threaten land- ever. The remainder of the tropics are fairly quiet with the exception of a tropical wave that has flared up near the northern Leeward Islands. So far, there are no signs of development, but we will certainly keep a close watch just in case. In the east Pacific, we have a new depression that could be a problem to the Baja in the coming days. I have posted a link to the NHC 5-day track map below. As this develops, I will post more details about possible effects along the Baja and perhaps even the SW United States (moisture). That's about it for now- I will have more tomorrow morning

Courtesy Hurricane Track

[Paranoid]

Tropical Depression 13E in the pacific has now become tropical storm Lane.

[kold weather]

Wow, Gordon deepened pretty well last night. Its a very good looking hurricane indeed, a nearly perfect eye though some pretty warm cloud tops as well mind you!

However the sat.estimates are even higher then the 105kts from the NHc, closer to cat-4 and actually given the uniform look of the hurricane (almost Annular!) despite the fairly unimpressive cloud depth, I'd say that Gordon is upto 110-115kts and thats what I expect it to be upper too next advisory.

How long Gordon lasts like this is up for debate, I'd be suprised if it keeps this strength for more then 24hrs because shear is forecasted to increase slightly and the heat content is forecasted to dip from then on making a cat-3 very hard to sustain for much longer then that.

Despite that this overnight deepening makes Gordon by far the strongest system this year and also out first major hurricane of the season as well!

So it does look like Gordon is going out with a flaDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me

[kold weather]

I'm quite suprised more people aren't talking about hurricane Gordon, its a beast in terms of organisation!

Eye is very impressive right now and Gordon really can't gain much more strength then what it has presently, prehaps 5-10mph given the convection isn't amazingly deep at the moment, then again thats quite normal for this latitude.

Still you cannot say that Gordon isn't looking good because it looks very good, makes all the other systems this year look weak, not perfect but for the upper latitudes that its at its pretty decent looking and despite what the NHc have it at right now, 105kts, I still think 110-115kts is far more probable given the fairly typical size of the hurricane, in other words its no super-heavy weight like Florence was, and here you see the difference between a chunky and a normal sized hurricane because in terms of heat content the two piece sof water they both crosses were very similar, but Gordon has spun up far quicker and better because it had a smaller central core, while Florence took forever and only peaked at 90mph, some way behind Gordon.

Gordon will probably hold steady for another 12-24hrs and after that, while the structure won't change much (In other words the eye may become a little more murky and the convection may waken but general presentation will remain similar.) the strength will decrease gradually as the heat content decreases beanth it and it reaches its MPI at pressures such as 970mbs like Florence did.

[The PIT]

People are probably looking at there own storms this afternoon which maybe the reason this has gone quiet. Could also be that it isn't heading towards land which may reduce the interest for some.

[Somerset Squall]

HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006

500 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006

THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF GORDON REMAINS ALMOST UNCHANGED FROM

THIS MORNING. A 20 N MI WIDE EYE CONTINUES TO EXIST WITH DEEP

CONVECTION SURROUNDING IT. DESPITE 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR

IMPINGING UPON THE HURRICANE...GORDON MAINTAINS MAJOR HURRICANE

STATUS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KT. THIS IS

SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 OR 102 KT

FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS

EARLIER TODAY AS WELL. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND

THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS GORDON TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN

THROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT THE WEAKENING COULD BE TOO FAST. ON THE OTHER

HAND...THE GFDL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH

FIVE DAYS WHICH COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY

FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND COMMENCES A GRADUAL

WEAKENING TREND THROUGH 4 DAYS AND THEN LEVELS OUT THE INTENSITY AS

AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/10. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY

CLOSE AGREEMENT AND ANTICIPATES A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE

STEERING CURRENTS IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL

MOTION HAS YET TO HINT AT A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. WITH THAT

SAID...THE FORECAST MOTION OF GORDON IS THE MOST CHALLENGING PART

OF THE FORECAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND FSU SUPER

ENSEMBLE ALL ACCELERATE GORDON AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-

LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY

FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EARLY PERIODS AND IS

ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THIS MORNING'S PACKAGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 30.2N 54.9W 105 KT

12HR VT 15/0600Z 31.3N 54.0W 95 KT

24HR VT 15/1800Z 32.1N 53.2W 85 KT

36HR VT 16/0600Z 32.9N 52.3W 75 KT

48HR VT 16/1800Z 33.8N 51.4W 65 KT

72HR VT 17/1800Z 37.0N 47.5W 55 KT

96HR VT 18/1800Z 40.5N 39.5W 50 KT

120HR VT 19/1800Z 43.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

Gordon seems to be coping very well with the shear at the moment! Gordon certainly has been very interesting, it certainly strengthened quickly as Kold said, if Florence wasn't so large she probably would have done the same. An amazing little storm, it might even turn out to be the most impressive of the 2006 season.

[Gray-Wolf]

Gordon is a very pretty storm indeed. Just shows what the right conditions can bring. I'm sure when some good, colour photo's of him appear people will want to know more about him but he'll probably be gone by then. The N.Atlantic loop shows an interesting 'alignment' of storms may be about to occur with Florence's remnants lining up above Gordon and with Helen below him.

I wonder if their southerly feeds will 'link' and give us a balmy start to next week?

[kold weather]

hurricane Gordon looks quite intresting at the moment, it is still just about hanging onto hurricane status according to the Satelite estimates. It also has a very intresting structure right now in that its eye is pretty huge compared to the res tof the system which is quite an intresting set-up which normally occurs as the system hits the cooler waters to its north, its actual got properties of an annular storm in terms of the eye shape and lack of feeder bands, and its quite common when you've got a strongh storm that moves into much less impressive heat content, the structure has to change simply because the heat content can't support it, so either they get this large eye or they tend to loose thier southern quadrant I find.

[Nick H]

The politically aware amongst NetWeather members might like to consider that this year's cycle of hurricane names contain Gordon and Tony for the first time, and that if anything becomes of Gordon then its remnants may have made their way across the Atlantic just in time for the Labour Party Conference next week.

[MAF]

The politically aware amongst NetWeather members might like to consider that this year's cycle of hurricane names contain Gordon and Tony for the first time, and that if anything becomes of Gordon then its remnants may have made their way across the Atlantic just in time for the Labour Party Conference next week.

wouldn't make much difference though mate. there will be plenty of hot air as it is.

sorry, off topic.

[kold weather]

Well despite what the NHC thought a few days ago, Hurricane Gordon is actually still about in the Atlantic now heading ENE/E. Also its still a decent category-1 hurricane at 80kts, or 90mph. It also still looks like a deecnt hurricane. Gordon still has an eyewall and a shallow eye is still very much evident.

Intrestingly we have got a chance of Gordon coming very close to the Azores islands in 36-48hrs depending exactly when it takes a easterly turn and there is a very real possiblty of a minimal category-1 at 65kts coming very close or possibly even hitting the Azores Islands which could turn out to be very intresting, esp if the island was to take a direct hit. There is also a fair chance that it'll be extra-trpical by the time it reaches that longitude but either way it'll be a decent hit for the Azores if it does connect with the islands!

[Matty M]

Yes Kold im surprised by the lack of interest on here!!

This storm is baffling me.

It's continuing to intensify and looks like its getting stronger and stronger!

Watch out the Azores! and possibly us!!

Goedon is holding up a fantastic structure

[Paranoid]

I had a look on the GFDL model. It predicts Gordon will strengthen slightly as it goes extratropical, but more interestingly it shows 102kt winds at 35m.

Pity after that none of the slides work.

I also looked on GFS and NOGAPS. They show it merging with another extratropical system, though NOGAPS seems to show Gordon being the dominant part of the system and moving up the west coast of Ireland with a more circular structure.

Edited September 18, 2006 by Paranoid

[The PIT]

If it's Annular it could last a fair time could it not????

[Paranoid]

Is it annular? Where did you hear that?

Oh, i should point out the swirling disturbance off the east coast of America is Invest 95L

Edited September 18, 2006 by Paranoid

[The PIT]

Is it annular? Where did you hear that?

Oh, i should point out the swirling disturbance off the east coast of America is Invest 95L

Read Kold's comments further up the page.

[kold weather]

It's not Annular now guys, not even close right now but it did have some Annular properties to it, though whether or not it was actually Annular, I don't think so.

Despite this its quite a long lasting hurricane and it does look very good!

[Paranoid]

It seems to have strengthened as well. I remember it dropping to 75mph and it's up to 90mph now. You never know, it might get Cat 2 status back.

[Somerset Squall]

It seems to have strengthened as well. I remember it dropping to 75mph and it's up to 90mph now. You never know, it might get Cat 2 status back.

I wouldn't be surprised!

[Matty M]

We must remember the Meto Meso model and the ECM are the models to watch along with

the Hurricane specialist models such as GFDL.

GFS, NOGAPS etc dont have the resolution

[snowmadchrisuk]

It's looking good for some intresting weather for the west. I currently live in weston-super-mare and it might make for some intrested tides on the seafront. I'm moving back to leicester in the east midlands on sunday so hope to see some action before i go. After that I think its aviemore in the highlands this winter for a couple of weeks. The south seemed to do better last year but aviemore doesnt let you down 2 years in a row. I recon with the possibility of a dissplaced jet scotland is going to do well with northerlys this year.

regards

chris

Edited September 18, 2006 by snowmadchrisuk

[Thundersquall]

Yes Kold im surprised by the lack of interest on here!!

This storm is baffling me.

It's continuing to intensify and looks like its getting stronger and stronger!

Watch out the Azores! and possibly us!!

Goedon is holding up a fantastic structure

There appears to be two hurricanes on this satellite image,

I assume smaller one is Gordon, so who is the larger one?

Edited September 18, 2006 by Thundersquall

[snowmadchrisuk]

the big 1 is gordon the smaller 1 is gordons shadow! and its approaching the uk watch out!!!