North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[WhiteFox]

Thanks WF, all to play for still! I'll read your comments with increased interest next week!

It'll almost certainly be cold, so bring warm clothes! Nothing like walking down Broadway on a cold day with the tall buildings funnelling the extremely cold wind...

If you fancy a pint to warm you up let me know!

[high ground birmingham]

My God, have you seen the cold that is projected next week on the GFS. WOW!!!:

For Friday 2nd February- Chicago could easily be having maxes of -15C and lows may reach -25C. New York will also get this cold wave but obviously not as cold as Chicago.

This will be by far America's coldest spell in a while.

[tcc]

It'll almost certainly be cold, so bring warm clothes! Nothing like walking down Broadway on a cold day with the tall buildings funnelling the extremely cold wind...

If you fancy a pint to warm you up let me know!

haha! Yeah it looks certain to be cold enough to bring some thermals! I'm going with the missus and another couple so I'll warn them in advance! We're staying at the Metro, so we'll probably pop into the irish bar around the corner from there one evening. So if your in there, and you see 4 frozen english people, that'll be us! haha!

Going completely off topic, which bar is the best in your view that's a true american bar? (if you know what I mean!)

[WhiteFox]

Going completely off topic, which bar is the best in your view that's a true american bar? (if you know what I mean!)

I'm rather fond of my local bar. I can go in at 11.30 at night for a quick beer and stagger home at about 4am...

In a genuine American bar, by which I mean those away from tourist areas, the people are very friendly. Also, make sure you tip well. The general rule over here is at least a Dollar a drink. Sounds like a lot, but if you tip well and make an effort to chat to the barman/woman you'll get every third round free; something which only happens in New York City. Many barmen get paid no salary and rely solely on tips, so bear that in mind!

With regards to cold spells, today was the coldest maximum in New York since January 2005. Yes, there looks to be some very cold air potentially moving down through the Midwest next week. I've been watching this for a few days now. Looking at the ensembles, and I'm a bit drunk to post them right now, they are the sort where it's hard to differentiate between the temperature and precipitation lines! Suffice to say, Minneapolis is possibly looking at -30oC 850s for five days or so, with the warmer runs going for about -25.

Talk about inversions? 850s for Minneapolis yesterday were +5oC. The maximum temperature was 0oC...

As for snow in New York, possible for Sunday and Monday this weekend (maybe an inch or two if we're lucky). Also next weekend is very much up in the air still. Either looking at up to 8 inches of snow or very wet weather. I'll keep an eye on the situation and update towards midweek.

I'm off to Chicago on Sunday, so I'm looking forward to maximum temps of -7 until Wednesday when we get a balmy -2oC...

[tcc]

I'm rather fond of my local bar. I can go in at 11.30 at night for a quick beer and stagger home at about 4am...

In a genuine American bar, by which I mean those away from tourist areas, the people are very friendly. Also, make sure you tip well. The general rule over here is at least a Dollar a drink. Sounds like a lot, but if you tip well and make an effort to chat to the barman/woman you'll get every third round free; something which only happens in New York City. Many barmen get paid no salary and rely solely on tips, so bear that in mind!

With regards to cold spells, today was the coldest maximum in New York since January 2005. Yes, there looks to be some very cold air potentially moving down through the Midwest next week. I've been watching this for a few days now. Looking at the ensembles, and I'm a bit drunk to post them right now, they are the sort where it's hard to differentiate between the temperature and precipitation lines! Suffice to say, Minneapolis is possibly looking at -30oC 850s for five days or so, with the warmer runs going for about -25.

Talk about inversions? 850s for Minneapolis yesterday were +5oC. The maximum temperature was 0oC...

As for snow in New York, possible for Sunday and Monday this weekend (maybe an inch or two if we're lucky). Also next weekend is very much up in the air still. Either looking at up to 8 inches of snow or very wet weather. I'll keep an eye on the situation and update towards midweek.

I'm off to Chicago on Sunday, so I'm looking forward to maximum temps of -7 until Wednesday when we get a balmy -2oC...

Thanks and yes I will make sure we tip well, as I'm sure we'll definitely be having more than 2 drinks!

It is looking interesting for next weekend! I'm not sure whether to get excited about seeing decent snow, or worried that we won't able to fly home on the Sunday! haha!

Anyway have a good trip and enjoy the fridge freezer temps!

[WhiteFox]

Well, we've gone from a maxmimum temperature of -7oC on Friday, to overnight rain here tonight in New York. It's beginning to look like a record will be set this year in much of the North East for the least snowfall recorded in a season. The rain this evening is only light, but it's a real kick in the teeth after such a cold, albeit short, spell of weather. To me, it does not bode well for any storms which eventually do develop and head up the East Coast; rain rather than snow? Put in context, New York averages 29 inches of snow each winter, and Boston considerably more (@40 I think). So far this year we have had 0.3 in New York and just under one inch in Boston. Winter cancel as they say over here...

[WhiteFox]

Now in Chicago where there is certainly no danger of rain for the forseeable future! Current temperature is about -7oC with another 'clipper' system reinforcing the cold air tomorrow into Tuesday. The coldest air of the season looks like arriving here this weekend. Check out the 850s:

It'll be cold, with a bit of snow. Current forecasts calling for an inch overnight tomorrow, but other than bits and pieces, nothing substantial. Looks like being a cold but dry second half of winter for Chicago.

As for New York, the picture is still very unclear. Next weekend provides the first shot of interest. A developing storm in the South West is forecast to move East during the week, hitting the East coast on Friday. The northern edge of the storm will be of snow. The question lies as to where the Northern edge will be. The models are understandably struggling with this one. For New York, we are looking at several options:

1. Rain

2. Snow then rain

3. Snow then rain then snow

4. Rain then snow then rain etc....

You can see why it's so hard to call! Beyond this a cold shot comes through which looks to last 5-6 days. This could also provide some interest going forward if we get a system develop in conjunction with the cold. The key, as ever, is whether we can get a coastal system. So far, no good, but February is usually a good month for snow...

[WhiteFox]

Looking at the charts for the upcoming cold spell next weekend, all I can say is that they look impressive!

The polar vortex shifts over Hudson Bay:

This opens the door for the coldest air of the season to flood into the upper Midwest:

Some extremely low thickness over Minnesota and the Northern Plains:

This spreads to the East Coast by Monday, albeit slightly modified, so it looks like tcc may be feeling the cold a bit on his last day in New York!

[WhiteFox]

Tonight provides a good example of why it so hard to call upcoming snow events in this pattern. We have been watching some potential for a few days and forecasts called for up to an inch tonight. For once this winter, it has verified:

Not a lot, and I'm in Chicago so I'm missing it (we have our own system to look forward to tomorrow night), but the large scale charts barely show this system:

More local charts do show events more clearly however:

[tcc]

Keep the updates coming WF!

If the PV can stay where forcasted, then I think February will make up for the lack of snow in the NE! There definitely appears to be some extreme cold heading to the midwest and if it does get locked in, then you have to say there is a good chance the STJ will strengthen with the NAO showing signs of going negative. This will hopefully in turn bring some nor'easters to your part of the world.

At least I can say one thing for when I go over there, it's going to be cold! I'd love to see a good dump of snow before I have to come back, but it's looking like I might miss it by a whisker!

[tcc]

Well we did miss the snow, but man it was bitterly cold! Thursday and Friday was okay, max temps were about 2 or 3 degrees. Then we had some rain and sleet on Friday evening which heralded extremely cold artic air! Max temp on Sat was minus 5!! With a wind chill on top! Yesterday the max got up to -7. I've never experienced cold like that, everytime the wind touched your face it felt like pins and needles. But it was awesome though!

It's looking like staying cold over the NE for a few days yet, with possibly some snow flurries in the next couple of days. Anyway I'll leave the analysis to WF

[WhiteFox]

Well we did miss the snow, but man it was bitterly cold! Thursday and Friday was okay, max temps were about 2 or 3 degrees. Then we had some rain and sleet on Friday evening which heralded extremely cold artic air! Max temp on Sat was minus 5!! With a wind chill on top! Yesterday the max got up to -7. I've never experienced cold like that, everytime the wind touched your face it felt like pins and needles. But it was awesome though!

It's looking like staying cold over the NE for a few days yet, with possibly some snow flurries in the next couple of days. Anyway I'll leave the analysis to WF

The cold here has to be experienced to be believed! Today was the coldest day yet; about -8oC with a biting wind. I had to go up to Parssipanny in New Jersey today and it was even colder! Looking at a low of about -13 to -14oC tonight and that should be the worst of the cold out of the way. We're looking at getting above freezing on Friday.

It was quite strange landing back in LaGuardia on Friday night to rain having spent a week in Chicago where the river has frozen and Lake Michigan is icing up!

The graphic shows the impact of the recent cold spell on Lake temps. Having said that, the late arrival of winter this year means that there is still less ice than normal and the Lake Effect machine remains in full force. In the Tug Hill plateau South East of Watertown, there has been an estimated four feet of lake effect snow from Lake Ontario...

[acrossthepond]

Brutally cold here in northern Illinois. High on the 5th was -18c after a morning low of -27c....wind chill made it feel more like -35c!!!

[WhiteFox]

Brutally cold here in northern Illinois. High on the 5th was -18c after a morning low of -27c....wind chill made it feel more like -35c!!!

Did you pick up much in the way of snow yesterday? The one feature of this cold spell has been the lack of snow. The clipper system which passed you yesterday went well to the South of New York. Means we're still locked in under the dry and very cold air. It's currently -8oc here with a dewpoint of -18oC.

Looks like the widespread warm up has been placed on hold for now; up until yesterday the 850s were forecast to rise comfortably above 0 for Chicago and New York by the 14th February; now there are only 2 members touching 0oC with Chicago showing nothing North of 0oC until the nether regions of FI. The chill goes on for a bit longer.

Doesn't look like being quite as cold, but the good news is that the Southern Jet kicks into life which will inject more moisture into the cold air.

All eyes are looking at next week when NYC has another shot at a storm; at this distance it may miss to the South again, but then again may still give us a dumping. Current forecasts going for Philadelphia southwards, but every chance of nudging North for a direct hit.

[acrossthepond]

Did you pick up much in the way of snow yesterday? The one feature of this cold spell has been the lack of snow. The clipper system which passed you yesterday went well to the South of New York. Means we're still locked in under the dry and very cold air. It's currently -8oc here with a dewpoint of -18oC.

Looks like the widespread warm up has been placed on hold for now; up until yesterday the 850s were forecast to rise comfortably above 0 for Chicago and New York by the 14th February; now there are only 2 members touching 0oC with Chicago showing nothing North of 0oC until the nether regions of FI. The chill goes on for a bit longer.

Doesn't look like being quite as cold, but the good news is that the Southern Jet kicks into life which will inject more moisture into the cold air.

All eyes are looking at next week when NYC has another shot at a storm; at this distance it may miss to the South again, but then again may still give us a dumping. Current forecasts going for Philadelphia southwards, but every chance of nudging North for a direct hit.

got about 2 inches here, Rockford got 4 1/2 I think, Chicago about 3 maybe. The heaviest snow seemed to go just south of Chicago.

Heatwave today..up to -12c at midday!!!!

[BL.]

Did you pick up much in the way of snow yesterday? The one feature of this cold spell has been the lack of snow. The clipper system which passed you yesterday went well to the South of New York. Means we're still locked in under the dry and very cold air. It's currently -8oc here with a dewpoint of -18oC.

Looks like the widespread warm up has been placed on hold for now; up until yesterday the 850s were forecast to rise comfortably above 0 for Chicago and New York by the 14th February; now there are only 2 members touching 0oC with Chicago showing nothing North of 0oC until the nether regions of FI. The chill goes on for a bit longer.

Doesn't look like being quite as cold, but the good news is that the Southern Jet kicks into life which will inject more moisture into the cold air.

All eyes are looking at next week when NYC has another shot at a storm; at this distance it may miss to the South again, but then again may still give us a dumping. Current forecasts going for Philadelphia southwards, but every chance of nudging North for a direct hit.

Evening WF - im a frequent and interested reader of this particular thread on NW - much appreciated are your often updates! Im annually in the NYC area annually, merely for pleasure, but guessing which type of weather to expect across the pond is half of the pre work in my opinion!

I read with interest the details about the possible event next week in the NYC area? Im there between 15/02 & 20/02 next week, this storm, if it does turn out to be a direct hit for the NYC, it forecast to be something to keep an eye on?

cheers

[WhiteFox]

Just going back to what TCC was saying about the cold over here earlier. We haven't been above freezing here in New York since the early hours of Saturday morning. The temperature was down to about -14oC overnight Sunday. Despite all this, there is no hoar frost. Incredibly dry air is responsible for this; dew points have been extremely low for the whole period. Very low humidity.

I was going to chart the possible development for next week, but am currently unable to post attachments. Will update at a later time!

[tcc]

Hi WF,

To say I was disappointed to see rain last Friday was an understatement!

Like you've said, you've really got to be there to appreciate just how cold it is, even when I've experienced -7 here, it hasn't felt nowhere near as cold as it did there!

As for next weeks possible storm I'm with you in that it might just come far enough north affect you. Talking to the locals they said any storms tend to be forcasted to the south and then gradually get nudged further north, so good luck! You've probably got a better chance with this then last week as the jet is on a different projection.

Typically I had to come back to the UK to get my snow! Woke up to 2.5 inches of snow this morning...which was nice!

[WhiteFox]

Quite a lare turnaround in the ensembles over the past few days. Looks like the GFS has been overdoing the return to mildness. About a week ago the GFS was trending for significantly warmer weather by the 14th with 850s forecast to be around 0oC or above for Chicago and New York and pretty close for Minneapolis. Now we are looking at temps staying generally below -10 for the next week at least. A case of the GFS being too progressive!

However, the Sub tropical jet is breaking through the block in Southern California.

Looking at the developing situation from yesterday, the forecast track has moved further north so that New York is in line for the ppn.

The chart for Monday 12th February doesn't look particularly ominous, but the thing to look at is the Low developing towards the mountain west; as this travels East it will draw moisture from the Gulf and develop further:

Chart for Monday 12th 06z:

24 hours later you can see that the injection of moisture has led to the storm system developing as it heads East. The key to this chart for the East coast is the exact position of the High Pressure. If the block is too far west then rain beckons for much of the East coast. Situation on Tuesday 12th 06z:

At this stage the storm track is not ideal for a classical East Coast snowstorm. Ideally we'd like the system to travel more ENE to just off the Georgia Coast before pivoting NE and running up the coast. The lack of significant Mid Atlantic blocking is our enemy here. As it is, we have the Canadian high in place which prevents the inland runner which would deliver rain for the East coast and snow inland:

The situation above shows the elongated storm system sitting just off the East Coast. The North Easterly winds are there, and the PPN exists. Aill it snow given this chart? Let's look at the requirements:

Firstly, 850 tempertures:

For New York this is not promising. Ideally we'd like to see more of a tilt with the cold air coming into the system a bit more.

Secondly, PPN:

When I checked 12 hours ago this was missing. Now we have the PPN. Will it be of the right type though?

Air thickness also looks questionable. Not having the 528dm line is not an issue in itself, but the proximity of the 546 line is a bit more worrying.

Surface temperatures:

The 0oC line runs just into Long Island; further upstate looks below freezing.

Finally, dewpoints. These have been well below freezing since last Saturday, being as low as -20oC or so at times. Will they hold?

The answer on current forecasts is marginal at best.

So, going on today's 06z GFS only, New York could be looking at some snow followed by rain, or even freezing rain. Upstate could also be looking at freezing rain, with snow further to the North and West. The exact track of the system is crucial as it could still miss New York completely to the South, or provide a SECS or MECS event (Significant East Coast Storm or Major East Coast Storm - HECS looks unlikely where H = Historic). Up to 8 inches would be a good return I think, particularly as the storm is followed by another shot of Arctic air and further storm possibilities...

I read with interest the details about the possible event next week in the NYC area? Im there between 15/02 & 20/02 next week, this storm, if it does turn out to be a direct hit for the NYC, it forecast to be something to keep an eye on?

cheers

Barring a two foot snowfall you should be ok by the 15th. I'd be more concerned if you were landing on the 14th as flight delays look inevitable whether it be rain or snow. Thursday looks to be drier, but of course this can easily change by next week!

[Coopsy]

Parts of Canada and USA, east of the great lakes have received upto 5 feet of snow in the past 2/3 days because of the lake effect, with more to come...now that would cause traffic problems

[WhiteFox]

Parts of Canada and USA, east of the great lakes have received upto 5 feet of snow in the past 2/3 days because of the lake effect, with more to come...now that would cause traffic problems

The Tug Hill plateau has been absolutely plastered as well as areas close to Syracuse. Lake Eriehas just about shut down as it's pretty well frozen over now, but Ontario remains fully open for business! Looks like more Lake Effect snow kicking in next week after the storm goes through.

[kold weather]

Must be some monster snow showers coming out iof the lakes there, temps stilldecently above 0C plus you've got some really impressive cold air digging down still its got to make some utterly insane snow showers at times when the flow is unstable enough.

I really can't wait to be able to go out there one winter, today has only heightened the watn to do it, my little 3 and a half inches isn't much to note out there as well, esp compared to what some place shave had over the last few days, I'd have a heart attack probably once I see falls close toa foot!

[WhiteFox]

Must be some monster snow showers coming out iof the lakes there, temps stilldecently above 0C plus you've got some really impressive cold air digging down still its got to make some utterly insane snow showers at times when the flow is unstable enough.

I really can't wait to be able to go out there one winter, today has only heightened the watn to do it, my little 3 and a half inches isn't much to note out there as well, esp compared to what some place shave had over the last few days, I'd have a heart attack probably once I see falls close toa foot!

The real player lately has bee Lake Ontario; the Tug Hill Plateau to the South East of Watertown is the place to go for these setups as you have the long fetch over Lake Ontario plus a bit of elevation to aid the precipitation. They have had over five feet there since last weekend I believe.

Erie has shut down with most of the surface covered with ice, albeit not total cover.

Michigan still offers a lot of snow, as does Huron, but most of the Huron snow goes into Canada so we don't hear much about it in the US.

I was in Buffalo in the aftermath of the October event and as with all Lake Effect events the difference between a few miles is enormous. Having said that, a longer period Lake Event will tend to meander a bit more.

Anyway, I'm off to Niagara next weekend, so I expect to see a fair bit of snow when I'm up there!

[WhiteFox]

Some big totals posted. Take a look at the LES totals since February 3rd:

Also, I was wrong about Erie. There is still just enough open water to generate some snow, albeit much lighter than that from Lake Ontario:

Classical Lake Effect bands in evidence over Ontario with lighter snow coming into Buffalo.

[WhiteFox]

LES is forecast to carry on into the weekend with a break when the storm system passes through. After that, another Arctic front follows and the pattern reloads. I'm heading up there next weekend. Unofficial reports of 111 inches of snow in parts of Oswego county with regular thundersnow. Some good pics can be found on this thread...

Incidentally, this is the latest radar from the area. The band you can see to the North of Rochester and Syracuse has been fairly steady, wavering North and South occasionally. Rates of four to five inches an hour have been reported at times!

Edited February 9, 2007 by WhiteFox