Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Hot?
IGNORED

Tropical Depression 13-E


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Tropical depression 13 has formed in the eastern pacific. Rapid intensification expected, should have a tropical storm very soon.

TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006

200 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER

SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.

BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE DEFINED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE

CENTER AND RADAR FROM ACAPULCO SHOWS A BROAD ROTATION WITHIN THESE

BANDS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 30 KT... AND THIS

IS THE INITIALLY INTENSITY. SHIP V2HZ REPORTED WINDS OF 33 KT...

BUT THIS IS NOT CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CIRCULATION AS A

WHOLE. HOWEVER IT DOES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A RELATIVELY

LARGE WIND FIELD... AND REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM

WARNINGS FOR SOUTHWEST MEXICO.

WATERS OFFSHORE OF MEXICO ARE QUITE WARM... AND... COMBINED WITH

LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST... INTENSIFICATION COULD BE RAPID. SHIPS

SUGGESTS THERE IS ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25 KT OR MORE

MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND...

THE GFDL HAS A MUCH SLOWER STRENGTHENING RATE... WHICH SEEMS A

LITTLE SUSPECT GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE INTENSITY

FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN SHIPS... IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/10.

MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE

DEPRESSION TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL

DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE

IN THE SHORT-TERM ACCOUNTING FOR THE INITIAL MOTION. THE FORECAST

BEYOND 72 HOURS DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

THE UKMET SEEMS TO MOVE THE SYSTEM MUCH TOO FAR TO THE NORTH GIVEN

THE RIDGING OVER MEXICO WHILE THE GFS IS SEEMINGLY UNAFFECTED BY

THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TO THE RIGHT OF THE

GUIDANCE... AND IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 16.0N 101.5W 30 KT

12HR VT 14/0600Z 16.8N 102.8W 40 KT

24HR VT 14/1800Z 17.6N 104.5W 50 KT

36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.3N 106.0W 60 KT

48HR VT 15/1800Z 18.9N 107.3W 70 KT

72HR VT 16/1800Z 20.0N 109.5W 75 KT

96HR VT 17/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W 70 KT

120HR VT 18/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 65 KT

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

It looks as thought he system will take a similar track to that of Hurricane Jhon, and while i do expect rapid intensification, i do not expect it on the scale of Hurricane Jhon due to the larger mass of this storm, although that will make this storm more dangerous to land.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...